ExxonMobil climate change controversy

thumb The ExxonMobil climate change controversy concerns ExxonMobil's activities related to promoting climate change denial. Since the 1970s, ExxonMobil engaged in research, lobbying, advertising, and grant making, some of which were conducted with the purpose of delaying widespread acceptance and action on global warming. From the late 1970s and through the 1980s, Exxon funded internal and university collaborations, broadly in line with the developing scientific consensus. From the 1980s to mid 2000s, the company was a leader in climate change denial, opposing regulations to curtail global warming. ExxonMobil funded organizations critical of the Kyoto Protocol, and seeking to undermine public opinion about the scientific consensus that global warming is caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Exxon helped to found and lead the Global Climate Coalition of businesses opposed to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. Quotes 1950s The effects of addition to the carbon cycle in nature of carbon dioxide from industrial activities have been the subject of speculation in several fields of science. Of particular interest is the fate of the enormous quantity of carbon dioxide which has been introduced into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the 19th century, and the manner in which the added carbon dioxide has been distributed in the carbon cycle. Although appreciable amounts of carbon dioxide have undoubtedly been added from soils by tilling of land, apparently a much greater amount has resulted from the combustion of fossil fuels. H. R. Brannon Jr., A. C. Daughtry, D. Perry, W. W. Whitaker, M. Williams, Humble Oil (now Exxon) scientists Radiocarbon evidence on the dilution of atmospheric and oceanic carbon by carbon from fossil fuels H. R. Brannon Jr. A. C. Daughtry D. Perry W. W. Whitaker M. Williams October 1957 10.1029/TR038i005p00643 Eos; Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change Nathaniel Rich August 1, 2018 December 22, 2018 The New York Times Magazine https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html; Exxon’s Climate Denial History: A Timeline Greenpeace https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/global-warming/exxon-and-the-oil-industry-knew-about-climate-change/exxons-climate-denial-history-a-timeline/) 1970s First, current scientific opinion overwhelmingly favors attributing atmospheric carbon dioxide increase to fossil fuel combustion. James F. Black, senior scientist in the Products Research Division of Exxon Research and Engineering, from his presentation to Exxon corporate management entitled "The Greenhouse Effect" (July 1977) (The Greenhouse Effect James F. Black http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/James%20Black%201977%20Presentation.pdf June 6, 1978 December 21, 2018 Exxon; The Greenhouse Effect James F. Black https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/19_james-black-1977-presentation.pdf June 6, 1978 December 29, 2018 Exxon; Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 16, 2015 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming InsideClimate News December 24, 2018; Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago Shannon Hall October 26, 2015 December 21, 2018 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/ Scientific American). On October 17, 1977, I attended a meeting in Atlanta of the study group on global environmental effects of carbon dioxide....Dr. [Thomas F.] Malone [Director of the Holcomb Research Institute at Butler University] then discussed the report recently completed by the National Academy of Sciences on Energy and Climate. He distributed a 40-page summary of the report to all attendees. The National Academy of Sciences report concludes that:1. The climatic effects of carbon dioxide release may be the primary limiting factor on energy production from fossil fuels over the next few centuries.2. It does not now appear that the direct generation of heat from the production and consumption of energy over the next few centuries will cause a rise of more than 0.5oC in global average air temperature.3. There are profound uncertainties regarding the carbon cycle, climate, and their interdependence. These uncertainties can be resolved only by a well-coordinated effort of extraordinarily interdisciplinary character.The National Academy therefore recommended:1. The possibility of modification of the world's climate by carbon dioxide release should be given serious prompt consideration by concerned national and international organizations and agencies. Two kinds of action are needed:a. organization of a comprehensive world-wide research program, andb. new institutional arrangements.2. A world-wide comprehensive research program should include studies on the carbon cycle, climate, future population changes and energy demands, and ways to mitigate the effective climatic change on world-food production.3. All the foregoing recommendations for research relate to global concerns, and therefore the cooperation of such international agencies as the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, and the International Council of Scientific Unions should be sought in responding to them.A high degree of international government cooperation is called for because of the need for a world-wide set of measurements and network of observing stations. As to the United States, consideration should be given to the establishment at the national level of a mechanism to weave together the interests and capabilities of the scientific community and the various agencies of the federal government in dealing with climate-related problems. Henry Shaw, manager of the Environmental Area in Exxon Research & Engineering's Technology Feasibility Center, in an internal Exxon memo (October 31, 1977) (Henry Shaw Environmental Effects of Carbon Dioxide October 31, 1977 December 22, 2018 Exxon http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/Government%20Meeting%20Memo%20%281977%29.pdf; Henry Shaw Government Meeting Memo October 31, 1977 December 22, 2018 Exxon https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/04_government-meeting-memo-1977.pdf; Exxon Believed Deep Dive Into Climate Research Would Protect Its Business Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 17, 2015b http://insideclimatenews.org/news/16092015/exxon-believed-deep-dive-into-climate-research-would-protect-its-business InsideClimate News December 21, 2018). I propose that Exxon be the initiator of a worldwide 'CO2 in the Atmosphere' R&D program along the lines of the International Geophysical Year concept. This may be the kind of opportunity that we are looking for to have Exxon technology, management and leadership resources put into the context of a project aimed at benefiting mankind. What would be more appropriate than for the world's leading energy company and leading oil company take the lead in trying to define whether a long-term CO2 problem really exists, and if so, what counter measures would be appropriate. Harold N. Weinberg, director of Exxon Research & Engineering's Technology Feasibility Center, in interoffice memo (March 7, 1978) (Harold N. Weinberg "CO2" March 7, 1978 December 22, 2018 Exxon http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/%2522Worldwide%2522%20R%26D%20Memo%20%281978%29.pdf; Exxon Believed Deep Dive Into Climate Research Would Protect Its Business Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 17, 2015b http://insideclimatenews.org/news/16092015/exxon-believed-deep-dive-into-climate-research-would-protect-its-business InsideClimate News December 21, 2018; Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored Its Own Early Climate Change Warnings September 16, 2015 December 21, 2018 Jason M. Breslow PBS Frontline WGBH-TV https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/investigation-finds-exxon-ignored-its-own-early-climate-change-warnings/) What is considered the best presently available climate model for treating the Greenhouse Effect predicts that a doubling of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere would produce a mean temperature increase of about 2°C to 3°C over most of the earth. The model also predicts that the temperature increase near the poles may be two to three times this value....Some countries would benefit but others could have their agricultural output reduced or destroyed....In the first place, there is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels. A doubling of carbon dioxide is estimated to be capable of increasing the average global temperature by from 1 [degree] to 3 [degrees Celsius], with a 10 [degrees Celsius] rise predicted at the poles. More research is needed, however, to establish the validity and significance of predictions with respect to the Greenhouse Effect. Present thinking holds that man has a time window of five to 10 years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical. James F. Black, senior scientist in the Products Research Division of Exxon Research and Engineering, from his summary of his 1977 presentation to Exxon corporate management (The Greenhouse Effect James F. Black http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/James%20Black%201977%20Presentation.pdf June 6, 1978 December 21, 2018 Exxon; The Greenhouse Effect James F. Black https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/19_james-black-1977-presentation.pdf June 6, 1978 December 29, 2018 Exxon; Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 16, 2015 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming InsideClimate News December 24, 2018Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 years ago Shannon Hall October 26, 2015 December 21, 2018 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/ Scientific American; What Exxon Knew About Climate Change Bill McKibben Bill McKibben September 18, 2015 December 21, 2018 The New Yorker https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change; Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored Its Own Early Climate Change Warnings September 16, 2015 December 21, 2018 Jason M. Breslow PBS Frontline WGBH-TV https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/investigation-finds-exxon-ignored-its-own-early-climate-change-warnings/; Exxon knew about climate change decades ago, spent $30M to discredit it September 17, 2015 December 21, 2018 Lonnie Shekhtman Christian Science Monitor https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/0917/Exxon-knew-about-climate-change-decades-ago-spent-30M-to-discredit-it; Exxon Knew about Climate Change in the 1970s, But Still Helped Block Kyoto Protocol in the ’90s Zoë Schlanger September 16, 2015 December 21, 2018 Newsweek https://www.newsweek.com/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-1970s-blocked-kyoto-protocol-373102; Exxon’s Climate Concealment Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes October 9, 2015 December 23, 2018 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.html; Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change Nathaniel Rich August 1, 2018 December 22, 2018 The New York Times Magazine https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html; Exxon Is Trying To Whitewash Its Climate Change Deception, And Some Media Are Lending A Hand November 10, 2015 December 29, 2018 Andrew Seifter Media Matters for America https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/10/exxon-is-trying-to-whitewash-its-climate-change/206763). I think there is a transition period. We are not going to stop burning fossil fuels and start looking toward solar or nuclear fusion and so on. We are going to have a very orderly transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Henry Shaw, invited by the National Commission on Air Quality, Saint Petersburg, Florida (October 1978) (Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change Nathaniel Rich August 1, 2018 December 22, 2018 The New York Times Magazine https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html). The rationale for Exxon's involvement and commitment of funds and personnel is based on our need to assess the possible impact of the greenhouse effect on Exxon business. Exxon must develop a credible scientific team that can critically evaluate the information generated on the subject and be able to carry bad news, if any, to the corporation. This team must be recognized for its excellence in the scientific community, the government, and internally by Exxon management. Henry Shaw, memo to Edward E. David Jr. (Henry Shaw December 7, 1978 December 24, 2018 Exxon Credible Scientific Team Letter http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/Credible%20Scientific%20Team%201978%20Letter.pdf; Henry Shaw December 7, 1978 December 29, 2018 Exxon Credible Scientific Team Letter https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/01_credible-scientific-team-1978-letter.pdf; Henry Shaw December 7, 1978 December 26, 2018 Exxon Exxon Climate Docs https://archive.org/details/ExxonClimateDocs; Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 16, 2015 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming InsideClimate News December 24, 2018). Present climactic models predict that the present trend of fossil fuel use will lead to dramatic climatic changes within the next 75 years. However, it is not obvious whether these changes would be all bad or all good. The major conclusion from this report is that, should it be deemed necessary to maintain atmospheric CO2 levels to prevent significant climatic changes, dramatic changes in patterns of energy use would be required. W. L. Ferrall, internal Exxon memo (October 16, 1979) (W. L. Ferrall Controlling Atmospheric CO2 Exxon October 16, 1979 December 22, 2018 https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/CO2%20and%20Fuel%20Use%20Projections.pdf; W. L. Ferrall Controlling Atmospheric CO2 Exxon October 16, 1979 December 22, 2018 https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/12_co2-and-fuel-use-projections.pdf; ExxonMobil Vs. The World November 30, 2016 December 22, 2018 Marcelo Gleiser w:Marcelo Gleiser NPR News https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2016/11/30/503825417/exxonmobil-vs-the-world) Atmospheric Science will be of critical importance to Exxon in the next decade....It behooves us to start a very aggressive defensive program in the indicated areas of atmospheric science and climate because there is a good probability that legislation affecting our business will be passed. Clearly, it is in our interest for such legislation to be based on hard scientific data. Henry Shaw, manager of the Environmental Area in Exxon Research & Engineering's Technology Feasibility Center, in an internal Exxon memo (November 19, 1979) (Henry Shaw Research in Atmospheric Science November 19, 1979 December 22, 2018 Exxon http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/Probable%20Legislation%20Memo%20%281979%29.pdf; Henry Shaw Research in Atmospheric Science November 19, 1979 December 23, 2018 Exxon http://www.climatefiles.com/exxonmobil/1979-exxon-memo-on-atmospheric-science-research-to-influence-legislation/; Exxon Believed Deep Dive Into Climate Research Would Protect Its Business Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 17, 2015b http://insideclimatenews.org/news/16092015/exxon-believed-deep-dive-into-climate-research-would-protect-its-business InsideClimate News December 21, 2018; Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change Nathaniel Rich August 1, 2018 December 22, 2018 The New York Times Magazine https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html). 1980s In addition to the effects of climate on the globe, there are some particularly dramatic questions that might cause serious global problems. For example, if the Antarctic ice sheet which is anchored on land, should melt, then this could cause a rise in the sea level on the order of 5 meters. Such a rise would cause flooding in much of the US East Coast including the state of Florida and Washington D.C. Henry Shaw and P. P. McCall, Exxon scientists (Shaw Henry McCall P. P. Exxon Research and Engineering Company’s Technological Forecast: CO2 Greenhouse Effect Exxon December 18, 1980 December 29, 2018 https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/02_technological-forecast-on-co2-greenhouse-effect-1980.pdf; Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014) Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 23, 2017 IOP Publishing 12 8 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f Environmental Research Letters 2017) Much is still unknown about the sources and sinks for atmospheric CO2, as well as about the climatic effect of increasing CO2 levels in the air, so that prognostications remain highly speculative. The models that appear most credible (to us) do predict measurable changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and sea-level by the year 2030 for the postulated fossil fuel combustion rates, but changes of a magnitude well short of catastrophic and probably below the magnitude that need trigger otherwise non-economic responses to the problem of energy supply. Werner Glass, Exxon scientist (Werner Glass Catastrophic effects letter Exxon August 14, 1981 December 30, 2018 https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/10_catastrophic-effects-letter-1981_2.pdf; Werner Glass Catastrophic effects letter Exxon August 14, 1981 December 30, 2018 http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/%2522Catastrophic%2522%20Effects%20Letter%20%281981%29.pdf; Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 22, 2015 InsideClimate News December 23, 2018 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models; Exxon’s Climate Concealment Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes October 9, 2015 December 23, 2018 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.html) ..."but changes of a magnitude well short of catastrophic..." I think that this statement may be too reassuring. Whereas I can agree with the statement that our best guess is that observable effects in the year 2030 are likely to be "well short of catastrophic", it is distinctly possible that the CPD scenario will later produce effects which will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the earth's population). This is because the global ecosystem in 2030 might still be in a transient, headed for much significant effects after time lags perhaps of the order of decades. If this indeed turns out to be the case, it is very likely that we will unambiguously recognize the threat by the year 2000 because of advances in climate modeling and the beginning of real experimental confirmation of the CO2 problem. Roger Cohen, director of the Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Laboratory at Exxon Research (Roger Cohen Catastrophic effects letter Exxon August 18, 1981 December 30, 2018 https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/10_catastrophic-effects-letter-1981_2.pdf; Roger Cohen Catastrophic effects letter Exxon August 18, 1981 December 30, 2018 http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/%2522Catastrophic%2522%20Effects%20Letter%20%281981%29.pdf; Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 22, 2015 InsideClimate News December 23, 2018 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models; Exxon’s Climate Concealment Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes October 9, 2015 December 23, 2018 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.html) Attached for your information and guidance is briefing material on the CO2 'Greenhouse' Effect which is receiving increased attention in both the scientific and popular press as an emerging environmental issue....The material has been given wide circulation to Exxon management and is intended to familiarize Exxon personnel with the subject. It may be used as a basis for discussing the issue with outsiders as may be appropriate. However, it should be restricted to Exxon personnel and not distributed externally....Predictions of the climatological impact of a carbon dioxide induced "greenhouse effect" draw upon various mathematical models to gauge the temperature increase. The scientific community generally discussed the impact in terms of doubling of the current carbon dioxide content in order to get beyond the noise level of the data. We estimate doubling could occur around the year 2090 based upon fossil fuel requirements projected in Exxon's long range energy outlook. The question of which predictions and which models best simulate a carbon dioxide-induced climate change is still being debated by the scientific community. Our best estimate is that doubling of the current concentration could increase average global temperature by about 1.3 to 3.1 degrees Centigrade. The increase would not be uniform over the earth's surface with the polar caps likely to see temperature increases on the order of 10 degrees Centigrade and the equator little, if any, increase....The state-of-the-art in climate modelling allows only gross global zoning while some of the expected results from temperature increases of the magnitude indicated are quite dramatic. For example, areas that were deserts 4,000 to 8,000 years ago in the Altithermal period (when the global average temperature was some 2 degrees Centigrade higher than present), may in due time return to deserts. Conversely, some areas which are deserts now were formerly agricultural regions. It is postulated that part of the Sahara Desert in Africa was quite - wet 2,000 to 8,000 years ago. The American Midwest, on the other band, was much drier, and it is projected that the Midwest would again become drier should there be a temperature increase of the magnitude postulated for a doubling of atmospheric CO2.In addition to the effects of climate on global agriculture, there are some potentially catastrophe events that must be considered. For example, if the Antarctic ice sheet which is anchored on land should melt, then this could cause e rise in sea level on the order of 5 meters. Such a rise would cause flooding on much of the U.S. East Coast, including the state of Florida and Washington, D.C....The greenhouse effect ls not likely to cause substantial climactic changes until the average global temperature rises at least 1 degree Centigrade above today's levels. This could occur in the second to third quarter of the next century. However, there is concern among some scientific groups that once the effects are measurable, they might not be reversible and little could be done to correct the situation in the short term. Therefore, a number of environmental groups are calling for action now to prevent an undesirable future situation from developing.Mitigation of the "greenhouse effect" would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion. Marvin B. Glaser, Environmental Affairs Manager, Coordination and Planning Division of Exxon Research and Engineering Company (CO2 Greenhouse Effect: A Technical Review M. B. Glaser April 1, 1982 December 23, 2018 Exxon http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/1982%20Exxon%20Primer%20on%20CO2%20Greenhouse%20Effect.pdf; M. B. Glaser April 1, 1982 1982 Exxon Primer On CO2 Greenhouse Effect Exxon https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/03_1982-exxon-primer-on-co2-greenhouse-effect.pdf; M. B. Glaser April 1, 1982 1982 Exxon Primer On CO2 Greenhouse Effect Exxon https://archive.org/details/1982ExxonPrimerOnCO2GreenhouseEffect; Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 22, 2015 InsideClimate News December 23, 2018 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models; Shell and Exxon's secret 1980s climate change warnings The Guardian Benjamin Franta September 19, 2018 December 23, 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/sep/19/shell-and-exxons-secret-1980s-climate-change-warnings; Exxon’s Climate Denial History: A Timeline Greenpeace https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/global-warming/exxon-and-the-oil-industry-knew-about-climate-change/exxons-climate-denial-history-a-timeline/; 4 Priceless Moments in ExxonMobil’s History of Climate Denial Naomi Ages November 25, 2015 December 23, 2018 Greenpeace https://www.greenpeace.org/usa/4-priceless-moments-in-exxonmobils-history-of-climate-denial/; Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored Its Own Early Climate Change Warnings September 16, 2015 December 21, 2018 Jason M. Breslow PBS Frontline WGBH-TV https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/investigation-finds-exxon-ignored-its-own-early-climate-change-warnings/; Exxon’s Climate Concealment Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes October 9, 2015 December 23, 2018 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.html; Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014) Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 23, 2017 IOP Publishing 12 8 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f Environmental Research Letters 2017; Exxon Is Trying To Whitewash Its Climate Change Deception, And Some Media Are Lending A Hand November 10, 2015 December 29, 2018 Andrew Seifter Media Matters for America https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/10/exxon-is-trying-to-whitewash-its-climate-change/206763; Sheldon Whitehouse Sheldon Whitehouse October 27, 2015 December 31, 2018 Time to Wake Up: What Exxon Knew About Climate Change https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/speeches/time-to-wake-up-what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change). I would like to summarize the findings of our research in climate modeling and place our results in the context of the existing body of knowledge of the CO2 greenhouse effect.Although the increase of atmospheric CO2 is well documented it has not yet resulted in a measurable change in the earth's climate. The concerns surrounding the possible effects of increased CO, have been based on the predictions of models which simulate the earth's climate. These models vary widely in the level of detail in which climate processes are treated and in the approximations used to describe the complexities of these processes. Consequently the quantitative predictions derived from the various models show considerable variation. However, over the past several years a clear scientific consensus has emerged regarding the expected climatic effects of increased atmospheric CO2. The consensus is that a doubling of atmospheric CO, from its pre-industrial revolution value would result in average global temperature rise of (3.0 +/- 1.5) degrees Centigrade. The uncertainty in this figure is a result of the inability of even the most elaborate models to simulate climate in a totally realistic manner. The temperature rise is predicted to be distributed non-uniformly over the earth, with above-average temperature elevations in the polar regions and relatively small increases near the equator. There is unanimous agreement in the scientific community that a temperature increase of this magnitude would bring about significant changes in the earth's climate, including rainfall distribution and alterations in the biosphere. The time required for doubling of atmospheric CO, depends on future world consumption of fossil fuels. current projections indicate that doubling will occur sometime in the latter half of the 21st century. The models predict that CO2-induced climate changes should be observable well before doubling. It is generally believed that the first unambiguous CO2-induced temperature increase will not be observable until around the year 2000....In summary, the results of our research are in accord with the scientific consensus on the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on climate....Furthermore our ethical responsibility is to permit the publication of our research in the scientific literature. Indeed, to do otherwise would be a breach of Exxon's public position and ethical credo on honesty and integrity. Roger W. Cohen, Director of Exxon's Theoretical and Mathematical Sciences Laboratory, memo to A. M. Natkin, of Exxon's Office of Science and Technology (Roger W. Cohen Exxon September 2, 1982 December 25, 2018 "Consensus" on CO2 Impacts (1982) https://insideclimatenews.org/documents/consensus-co2-impacts-1982; Roger W. Cohen Exxon September 2, 1982 December 29, 2018 Consensus on CO2 Impacts (1982) https://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/climate/11_consensus-on-co2-impacts-1982.pdf; Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 16, 2015 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming InsideClimate News December 30, 2018; Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 22, 2015 InsideClimate News December 23, 2018 https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models; Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014) Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 23, 2017 IOP Publishing 12 8 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f Environmental Research Letters 2017; Exxon Is Trying To Whitewash Its Climate Change Deception, And Some Media Are Lending A Hand November 10, 2015 December 29, 2018 Andrew Seifter Media Matters for America https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/10/exxon-is-trying-to-whitewash-its-climate-change/206763). ...faith in technologies, markets, and correcting feedback mechanisms is less than satisfying for a situation such as the one you are studying at this year's Ewing Symposium...Few people doubt that the world has entered an energy transition away from dependence on fossil fuels and toward some mix of renewable resources that will not pose problems of CO2 accumulation....I'm generally upbeat about the chances of coming through this most adventurous of all human experiments with the ecosystem....Beyond our normal twenty-year outlook period, we recently attempted a forecast of the CO2 [carbon dioxide] build-up. We assumed different growth rates at different times, but with an average growth rate in fossil fuel use of about one percent per year starting today, our estimate is that the doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels might occur sometime late in the 21st century. That includes the impact of a synfuels industry. Assuming the greenhouse effect occurs, rising CO2 concentrations may begin to induce climactic changes around the middle of the 21st century....Clearly, there is vast opportunity for conflict. For example, it is more than a little disconcerting the few maps showing the likely effects of global warming seem to reveal the two superpowers losing much of the rainfall, with the rest of the world seemingly benefitting. Dr. Edward E. David, Jr., president of the Exxon Research and Engineering Company, keynote address to the Maurice Ewing symposium at the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory on the Palisades, New York campus of Columbia University (October 26, 1982); In Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. (Geophysical Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5) James E. Hansen w:James E. Hansen Taro Takahashi Washington, D. C. 5 59 American Geophysical Union 1-5 10.1029/GM029 9780875904047 1984 (Inventing the Future: Energy and the CO2 "Greenhouse Effect" October 26, 1982 December 27, 2018 w:Edward E. David Jr. Edward E. David Jr. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2017/David.E.E.1982.EXXON.EwingSymposium.pdf; Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change Nathaniel Rich August 1, 2018 December 22, 2018 The New York Times Magazine https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html; Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014) Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 23, 2017 IOP Publishing 12 8 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f Environmental Research Letters 2017) Exxon position: Emphasize the uncertainty in scientific conclusions regarding the potential enhanced Greenhouse effect. Joseph M. Carlson, Exxon spokesperson (Joseph M. Carlson 1988 Exxon Memo on the Greenhouse Effect Exxon http://www.climatefiles.com/exxonmobil/566/; How Exxon went from leader to skeptic on climate change research Katie Jennings Dino Grandoni Susanne Rust October 23, 2015 http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-research/ Los Angeles Times January 3, 2019; Imagine if Exxon had told the truth on climate change Bill McKibben Bill McKibben The Guardian October 28, 2015 January 3, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/28/imagine-if-exxon-had-told-the-truth-on-climate-change; Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014) Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 23, 2017 IOP Publishing 12 8 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f Environmental Research Letters 2017; Exxon Mobil and the G.O.P.: Fossil Fools Timothy Egan Timothy Egan November 5, 2015 January 3, 2019 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/opinion/fossil-fools.html) These CO2 projections are used in current climate models to predict important changes over the next 100 years. This set of results is taken from the National Research Council (NRC) report "Changing Climate".Consensus predictions call for warming 1.5-4.5 [degrees Celsius] for doubled CO2 with greater warming at the poles. Note that these numbers reflect the range produced by available models. No one knows how to evaluate the absolute uncertainty in the numbers.The extent and thickness of glaciers are predicted to decrease, leading to sea level rise. The NRC report chose a most likely value of 70 cm sea level rise. Other predictions suggest a broader range from 30-200 cm. The rise occurs both from a larger amount of water in the oceans, and from thermal expansion.Finally, climate change and higher levels of atmospheric CO2 affect agriculture and ecosystems....Data confirm that greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere. Fossil fuels contribute most of the CO2....Projections suggest significant climate change with a variety of regional impacts. Sea level rise with generally negative consequences....Arguments that we can’t tolerate delay and must act now can lead to irreversible and costly Draconian steps....To be a responsible participant and part of the solution to [potential enhanced greenhouse], Exxon's position should recognize and support 2 basic societal needs. First ... to improve understanding of the problem ... not just the science ... but the costs and economics tempered by the sociopolitical realities. That's going to take years (probably decades). But there are measures already underway that will improve our environment in various ways ... and in addition reduce the growth in greenhouse gases. That's the second need including things like energy conservation, restriction of CFC emissions, and efforts to increase the global ratio of re/de forestation. Of course, we'll need to develop other response options...implementing measures when they are cost effective in the near term and pursuing new technologies for the future. Duane G. Levine, Exxon scientist, presentation to the Board of Directors of Exxon (Exxon Duane G. Levine Potential Enhanced Greenhouse Effects: Status and Outlook, Presentation to the Board of Directors of Exxon Corporation February 22, 1989 http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/energy-and-environment/board-presentation-Feb-22-1989.pdf December 29, 2018; Exxon Is Trying To Whitewash Its Climate Change Deception, And Some Media Are Lending A Hand November 10, 2015 December 29, 2018 Andrew Seifter Media Matters for America https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/10/exxon-is-trying-to-whitewash-its-climate-change/206763; How Exxon went from leader to skeptic on climate change research Katie Jennings Dino Grandoni Susanne Rust October 23, 2015 http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-research/ Los Angeles Times December 29, 2018; Exxon Mobil and the G.O.P.: Fossil Fools Timothy Egan Timothy Egan November 5, 2015 January 3, 2019 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/06/opinion/fossil-fools.html) 1990s Certainly any major development with a life span of say 30-40 years will need to assess the impacts of potential global warming. This is particularly true of Arctic and offshore projects in Canada, where warming will clearly affect sea ice, icebergs, permafrost and sea levels. Ken Croasdale, senior ice researcher for Exxon’s Canadian subsidiary, to an engineering conference in 1991 (Los Angeles Times http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-arctic/ What Exxon knew about the Earth's melting Arctic Sara Jerving Katie Jennings Masako Melissa Hirsch Susanne Rust October 9, 2015 January 1, 2019; Exxon Arctic Drilling Benefitting From Global Warming: Oil Company Denied Climate Change Science While Factoring It Into Arctic Operations, Report Shows Elizabeth Whitman October 10, 2015 http://www.ibtimes.com/exxon-arctic-drilling-benefitting-global-warming-oil-company-denied-climate-change-2136118 International Business Times January 1, 2019) First, let's agree there's a lot we really don't know about how climate will change in the 21st century and beyond. That means we need to understand the issue better, and fortunately, we have time. It is highly unlikely that the temperature in the middle of the next century will be significantly affected whether policies are enacted now or 20 years from now.It also means it's bad public policy to impose very costly regulations and restrictions when their need has yet to be proven, their total impact undefined, and when nations are not prepared to act in concert. Lee Raymond, Exxon chief executive officer, speech before the World Petroleum Congress in Beijing (Lee Raymond Lee Raymond 1997 Exxon’s Lee Raymond Speech at World Petroleum Congress October 13, 1997 January 3, 2019 http://www.climatefiles.com/exxonmobil/1997-exxon-lee-raymond-speech-at-world-petroleum-congress/; Exxon CEO Lee Raymond's Stance On Global Warming Causes a Stir Thaddeus Herrick The Wall Street Journal August 29, 2001 January 3, 2019 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB999035936679805198; Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 16, 2015 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming InsideClimate News January 3, 2019; Imagine if Exxon had told the truth on climate change Bill McKibben Bill McKibben The Guardian October 28, 2015 January 3, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/28/imagine-if-exxon-had-told-the-truth-on-climate-change) ...projections are based on completely unproven climate models, or, more often, on sheer speculation. Lee Raymond, Exxon chief executive officer, at 1999 annual stockholders meeting (Los Angeles Times http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-arctic/ What Exxon knew about the Earth's melting Arctic Sara Jerving Katie Jennings Masako Melissa Hirsch Susanne Rust October 9, 2015 January 3, 2019; The Nation Exxon Knew Everything There Was to Know About Climate Change by the Mid-1980s—and Denied It Bill McKibben Bill McKibben October 20, 2015 December 23, 2018 http://www.thenation.com/article/exxon-knew-everything-there-was-to-know-about-climate-change-by-the-mid-1980s-and-denied-it/) 2000s ...Exxon Mobil is a worse environmental villain than other big oil companies...Exxon, headed by Mr. Raymond, chose a different course of action: it decided to fight the science....And that's just what Exxon Mobil has done: lavish grants have supported a sort of alternative intellectual universe of global warming skeptics....the fact is that whatever small chance there was of action to limit global warming became even smaller because ExxonMobil chose to protect its profits by trashing good science. Paul Krugman (Enemy of the Planet Paul Krugman Paul Krugman April 17, 2006 December 24, 2018 https://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9407EEDD173FF934A25757C0A9609C8B63 The New York Times). This message of scientific uncertainty has been reinforced by the public relations campaigns of certain corporations with a large stake in the issue. The most well known example is ExxonMobil, which in 2004 ran a highly visible advertising campaign on the op-ed page of the New York Times. Its carefully worded advertisements—written and formatted to look like newspaper columns and called op-ed pieces by ExxonMobil—suggested that climate science was far too uncertain to warrant action on it. One advertisement concluded that the uncertainties and complexities of climate and weather means that "there is an ongoing need to support scientific research to inform decisions and guide policies". Not many would argue with this commonsense conclusion. But our scientists have concluded that existing research warrants that decisions and policies be made today. Naomi Oreskes (The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong? w:Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes MIT Press 2007 http://www.project2061.org/events/meetings/climate2010/includes/media/NotwrongClimateChange.MITPress.2007.pdf) 2010s [M]ajor energy corporations continue to lie about climate change, promoting and bankrolling climate denialism—while admitting the truth in their internal documents. These corporations are working to accelerate the extraction and production of fossil fuels, including the dirtiest, most greenhouse gas-generating varieties, reaping enormous profits in the process. The melting of the Arctic ice from global warming is seen by capital as a new El Dorado, opening up massive additional oil and gas reserves to be exploited without regard to the consequences for the earth’s climate. In response to scientific reports on climate change, Exxon Mobil declared that it intends to extract and sell all of the fossil-fuel reserves at its disposal. Energy corporations continue to intervene in climate negotiations to ensure that any agreements to limit carbon emissions are defanged. Capitalist countries across the board are putting the accumulation of wealth for a few above combatting climate destabilization, threatening the very future of humanity. John Bellamy Foster, Capitalism Has Failed—What Next? (February 01, 2019), Monthly Review Then-Vice President George H. W. Bush ran for president of the United States pledging to combat the “greenhouse effect with the White House effect”. 1988 was also the year in which the world nations joined together to create the w:Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a scientific basis for policy action. Fossil fuel corporations might have begun to take steps to limit the damages their products caused to the global environment.Instead, leading investor-owned fossil fuel corporations, including ExxonMobil, Shell, and British Petroleum, created the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) to oppose greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. From 1989 to 2002, the GCC led an aggressive lobbying and advertising campaign aimed at achieving these goals by sowing doubt about the integrity of the IPCC and the scientific evidence that heat-trapping emissions from burning fossil fuels drive global warming. They worked successfully to prevent the United States from signing the Kyoto Protocol after it was negotiated in 1997. When the GCC disbanded, they stated that they had achieved their goals....Between 1988 and 2005, ExxonMobil invested over $16 million in a network of front groups that spread misleading claims about climate science. It also exploited its close relationship with the administration of President George W. Bush to pressure the administration to remove top scientists from leadership roles in the IPCC and the US National Climate Assessment and to promote federal policies driving further reliance on fossil energy Peter C. Frumhoff, Richard Heede, and Naomi Oreskes Frumhoff P.C. Heede R. Oreskes N. Climatic Change 2015 132 157 10.1007/s10584-015-1472-5 1573-1480 The climate responsibilities of industrial carbon producers At a meeting in Exxon Corporation's headquarters, a senior company scientist named James F. Black addressed an audience of powerful oilmen. Speaking without a text as he flipped through detailed slides, Black delivered a sobering message: carbon dioxide from the world's use of fossil fuels would warm the planet and could eventually endanger humanity....toward the end of the 1980s, Exxon curtailed its carbon dioxide research. In the decades that followed, Exxon worked instead at the forefront of climate denial. It put its muscle behind efforts to manufacture doubt about the reality of global warming its own scientists had once confirmed. It lobbied to block federal and international action to control greenhouse gas emissions. It helped to erect a vast edifice of misinformation that stands to this day. InsideClimate News (Exxon's Own Research Confirmed Fossil Fuels' Role in Global Warming Decades Ago Neela Banerjee Lisa Song David Hasemyer September 16, 2015 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092015/Exxons-own-research-confirmed-fossil-fuels-role-in-global-warming InsideClimate News December 24, 2018; Washington Monthly Exxon Should Be Prosecuted For Covering Up Its Knowledge of Fossil Fuel-Induced Climate Change David Atkins October 18, 2015 December 24, 2018 https://washingtonmonthly.com/2015/10/18/exxon-should-be-prosecuted-for-covering-up-its-knowledge-of-fossil-fuel-induced-climate-change/; [A]s early as 1977, Exxon (now ExxonMobil, one of the world’s largest oil companies) knew that its main product would heat up the planet disastrously. This did not prevent the company from then spending decades helping to organize the campaigns of disinformation and denial that have slowed—perhaps fatally—the planet’s response to global warming....Exxon responded, instead, by helping to set up or fund extreme climate-denial campaigns....The company worked with veterans of the tobacco industry to try and infuse the climate debate with doubt. What Exxon Knew About Climate Change Bill McKibben Bill McKibben September 18, 2015 December 21, 2018 The New Yorker https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change Through much of the 1980s, Exxon researchers worked alongside university and government scientists to generate objective climate models that yielded papers published in peer-reviewed journals. Their work confirmed the emerging scientific consensus on global warming's risks.Yet starting in 1989, Exxon leaders went down a different road. They repeatedly argued that the uncertainty inherent in computer models makes them useless for important policy decisions. Even as the models grew more powerful and reliable, Exxon publicly derided the type of work its own scientists had done. The company continued its involvement with climate research, but its reputation for objectivity began to erode as it campaigned internationally to cast doubt on the science. InsideClimate News (Exxon Confirmed Global Warming Consensus in 1982 with In-House Climate Models Lisa Song Neela Banerjee David Hasemyer September 22, 2015 December 29, 2018 http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092015/exxon-confirmed-global-warming-consensus-in-1982-with-in-house-climate-models InsideClimate News; Exxon Is Trying To Whitewash Its Climate Change Deception, And Some Media Are Lending A Hand November 10, 2015 December 29, 2018 Andrew Seifter Media Matters for America https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/10/exxon-is-trying-to-whitewash-its-climate-change/206763). As early as 1977, one of Exxon’s senior scientists warned a gathering of oilmen of a “general scientific agreement” that the burning of fossil fuels was influencing the climate. A year later, he had updated his assessment, warning that “present thinking holds that man has a time window of five to 10 years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical.”...Exxon chose the path of disinformation, denial and delay. More damagingly, the company set a model for the rest of the industry. More than 30 years ago, Exxon scientists acknowledged in internal company memos that climate change could be catastrophic. Today, scientists who say the exact same thing are ridiculed in the business community and on the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal.We have lost precious time as a result: decades during which we could have built a smart electricity grid, fostered efficiency and renewables and generated thousands of jobs in a cleaner, greener economy. There is still time to prevent the worst disruptions of human-driven climate change, but the challenge is now much greater than it needed to be, in no small part because of the choices that Exxon Mobil made. Exxon’s Climate Concealment Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes October 9, 2015 December 21, 2018 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.html; What Exxon knew about climate change, and when it knew it October 12, 2015 Steve Benen NBC News The Rachel Maddow Show http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change-and-when-it-knew-it. A fossil fuel company intentionally and knowingly obfuscating research into climate change constitutes criminal negligence and malicious intent at best, and a crime against humanity at worst. The Department of Justice| has a moral obligation to prosecute Exxon and its co-conspirators accordingly. Washington Monthly (Washington Monthly Exxon Should Be Prosecuted For Covering Up Its Knowledge of Fossil Fuel-Induced Climate Change David Atkins October 18, 2015 December 23, 2018 https://washingtonmonthly.com/2015/10/18/exxon-should-be-prosecuted-for-covering-up-its-knowledge-of-fossil-fuel-induced-climate-change/; The Nation Exxon Knew Everything There Was to Know About Climate Change by the Mid-1980s—and Denied It Bill McKibben Bill McKibben October 20, 2015 December 23, 2018 http://www.thenation.com/article/exxon-knew-everything-there-was-to-know-about-climate-change-by-the-mid-1980s-and-denied-it/). ExxonMobil, the world’s largest and most powerful oil company, knew everything there was to know about climate change by the mid-1980s, and then spent the next few decades systematically funding climate denial and lying about the state of the science....But though we know now that behind the scenes Exxon understood precisely what was going on, in public they feigned ignorance or worse....Thanks to Exxon’s willingness to sucker the world, that world is now a chaotic mess. Bill McKibben (The Nation Exxon Knew Everything There Was to Know About Climate Change by the Mid-1980s—and Denied It Bill McKibben Bill McKibben October 20, 2015 December 23, 2018 http://www.thenation.com/article/exxon-knew-everything-there-was-to-know-about-climate-change-by-the-mid-1980s-and-denied-it/; Moyers & Company Exxon Knew Everything There Was to Know About Climate Change by the Mid-1980s—and Denied It Bill McKibben Bill McKibben October 21, 2015 December 27, 2018 https://billmoyers.com/2015/10/21/exxon-knew-everything-there-was-to-know-about-climate-change-by-the-mid-1980s-and-denied-it/ Sadly, Exxon had the opportunity to lead the world toward a measured, manageable approach toward a solution. With profits to protect, Exxon provided climate-change doubters a bully pulpit they didn’t deserve and gave lawmakers the political cover to delay global action until long after the environmental damage had reached severe levels. That’s the inconvenient truth as we see it. Dallas Morning News (Editorial: Exxon’s missed opportunity to address climate change Dallas Morning News October 20, 2015 January 3, 2019 https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/editorials/2015/10/20/editorial-exxons-missed-opportunity-to-address-climate-change; Imagine if Exxon had told the truth on climate change Bill McKibben Bill McKibben The Guardian October 28, 2015 January 3, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/28/imagine-if-exxon-had-told-the-truth-on-climate-change) Throughout much of the 1980s, Exxon earned a public reputation as a pioneer in climate change research. It sponsored workshops, funded academic research and conducted its own high-tech experiments exploring the science behind global warming.But by 1990, the company, in public, took a different posture.While still funding select research, it poured millions into a campaign that questioned climate change....How did one of the world’s largest oil companies, a leader in climate research, become one of its biggest public skeptics?The answer, gleaned from a trove of archived company documents and the recollections of former employees, is that Exxon, now known as Exxon Mobil, feared a growing public consensus would lead to financially burdensome policies. Los Angeles Times (How Exxon went from leader to skeptic on climate change research Katie Jennings Dino Grandoni Susanne Rust October 23, 2015 http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-research/ Los Angeles Times December 29, 2018; Exxon Is Trying To Whitewash Its Climate Change Deception, And Some Media Are Lending A Hand November 10, 2015 December 29, 2018 Andrew Seifter Media Matters for America https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2015/11/10/exxon-is-trying-to-whitewash-its-climate-change/206763) Mr./Madam President, it is time for this body to wake up, not just to climate change, but to the decades-long, purposeful corporate smokescreen of misleading public statements from the fossil fuel industry and its allies on the dangers of carbon pollution. I am here for the 116th time, seeking an open, honest and factual debate in Congress about global climate change.The energy industry’s top dog, ExxonMobil—number two for both revenue and profits among the Fortune 500—has been getting some bad press lately. Two independent investigative reports, from InsideClimate News and the Los Angeles Times, revealed that Exxon’s own scientists understood as far back at the late 1970s the effects of carbon pollution on the climate and warned company executives of the potential outcomes for the planet and human society. But Exxon’s own internal report recognizing heading off global warming “would require major reductions in fossil fuel combustion.” So rather than behave responsibly, reveal that truth, and lead the effort to stave off catastrophic changes to the climate, Exxon ultimately chose to fund and participate in a massive misinformation campaign to protect their business model and their bottom line....Despite documented warnings from their own scientists dating from the 1970s, ExxonMobil pursued a campaign of deceit, denial, and delay. They may soon have to face the consequences.History will not look kindly on their choice. Sheldon Whitehouse, United States Senator from Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse Sheldon Whitehouse October 27, 2015 December 31, 2018 Time to Wake Up: What Exxon Knew About Climate Change https://www.whitehouse.senate.gov/news/speeches/time-to-wake-up-what-exxon-knew-about-climate-change) Year after year throughout the last two decades they’ve made more money than any company in the history of money. But poor people around the world are already paying for those profits, and every generation that follows us now will pay as well, because the “Exxon position” has helped take us over one tipping point after another. Their sins of emission, like so many other firms and individuals, are bad. But their sins of omission are truly inexcusable. Imagine if Exxon had told the truth on climate change Bill McKibben Bill McKibben The Guardian October 28, 2015 January 3, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/28/imagine-if-exxon-had-told-the-truth-on-climate-change Not surprisingly, by the late 1970s and early 1980s, ExxonMobil scientists understood quite well the mechanisms of climate change and its broad implications for the oil business. ExxonMobil Vs. The World November 30, 2016 December 22, 2018 Marcelo Gleiser w:Marcelo Gleiser NPR News https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2016/11/30/503825417/exxonmobil-vs-the-world Earlier this year our organization, the Rockefeller Family Fund (RFF), announced that it would divest its holdings in fossil fuel companies. We mean to do this gradually, but in a public statement we singled out ExxonMobil for immediate divestment because of its “morally reprehensible conduct.” For over a quarter-century the company tried to deceive policymakers and the public about the realities of climate change, protecting its profits at the cost of immense damage to life on this planet....Exxon, in particular, has been a leader of the movement to deny the facts of climate change. Often working indirectly through front groups, it sponsored many of the scientists and think tanks that have sought to obfuscate the scientific consensus about the changing climate, and it participated in those efforts through its paid advertisements and the statements of its executives.It seemed to us, however, that for business reasons, a company as sophisticated and successful as Exxon would have needed to know the difference between its own propaganda and scientific reality. If it turned out that Exxon and other oil companies had recognized the validity of climate science even while they were funding the climate denial movement, that would, we thought, help the public understand how artificially manufactured and disingenuous the “debate” over climate change has always been. In turn, we hoped this understanding would build support for strong policies addressing the crisis of global warming. David Kaiser, president, and Lee Wasserman, director, of the Rockefeller Family Fund (The Rockefeller Family Fund vs. Exxon David Kaiser Lee Wasserman December 8, 2016 December 22, 2018 The New York Review of Books https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/12/08/the-rockefeller-family-fund-vs-exxon/; ExxonMobil Vs. The World November 30, 2016 December 22, 2018 Marcelo Gleiser w:Marcelo Gleiser NPR News https://www.npr.org/sections/13.7/2016/11/30/503825417/exxonmobil-vs-the-world) Exxon Mobil misled the public about the state of climate science and its implications. Available documents show a systematic, quantifiable discrepancy between what Exxon Mobil’s scientists and executives discussed about climate change in private and in academic circles, and what it presented to the general public....In short, Exxon Mobil contributed quietly to climate science and loudly to raising doubts about it. We found that, accounting for reasonable doubt given the state of the science at the time of each document, roughly 80 percent of the company’s academic and internal papers acknowledged that climate change is real and human-caused. But 81 percent of their climate change advertorials in one way or another expressed doubt....Even while Exxon Mobil scientists were contributing to climate science and writing reports that explained it to their bosses, the company was paying for advertisements that told a very different tale. Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes (What Exxon Mobil Didn’t Say About Climate Change Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 22, 2017 January 3, 2019 The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/opinion/exxon-climate-change-.html; Exxon Misled the Public on Climate Change, Study Says John Schwartz August 23, 2017 January 3, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/23/climate/exxon-global-warming-science-study.html The New York Times) This paper assesses whether ExxonMobil Corporation has in the past misled the general public about climate change....Our assessment of ExxonMobil's peer-reviewed publications and the role of its scientists supports the conclusion that the company did not 'suppress' climate science—indeed, it contributed to it.However, on the question of whether ExxonMobil misled non-scientific audiences about climate science, our analysis supports the conclusion that it did....in public, ExxonMobil contributed quietly to the science and loudly to raising doubts about it....Available documents show a discrepancy between what ExxonMobil's scientists and executives discussed about climate change privately and in academic circles and what it presented to the general public. The company's peer-reviewed, non-peer-reviewed, and internal communications consistently tracked evolving climate science: broadly acknowledging that AGW [Anthropogenic Global Warming] is real, human-caused, serious, and solvable, while identifying reasonable uncertainties that most climate scientists readily acknowledged at that time. In contrast, ExxonMobil's advertorials in the NYT [New York Times] overwhelmingly emphasized only the uncertainties, promoting a narrative inconsistent with the views of most climate scientists, including ExxonMobil's own. This is characteristic of what Freudenberg et. al. term the Scientific Certainty Argumentation Method (SCAM)—a tactic for undermining public understanding of scientific knowledge. Likewise, the company's peer-reviewed, non-peer-reviewed, and internal documents acknowledge the risks of stranded assets, whereas their advertorials do not. In light of these findings, we judge that ExxonMobil's AGW communications were misleading; we are not in a position to judge whether they violated any laws. Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes (Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014) Geoffrey Supran Naomi Oreskes Naomi Oreskes August 23, 2017 IOP Publishing 12 8 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f Environmental Research Letters 2017; Exxon Misled the Public on Climate Change, Study Says John Schwartz August 23, 2017 January 3, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/23/climate/exxon-global-warming-science-study.html The New York Times) Why didn’t we act? A common boogeyman today is the fossil-fuel industry, which in recent decades has committed to playing the role of villain with comic-book bravado. An entire subfield of climate literature has chronicled the machinations of industry lobbyists, the corruption of scientists and the propaganda campaigns that even now continue to debase the political debate, long after the largest oil-and-gas companies have abandoned the dumb show of denialism. But the coordinated efforts to bewilder the public did not begin in earnest until the end of 1989. During the preceding decade, some of the largest oil companies, including Exxon and Shell, made good-faith efforts to understand the scope of the crisis and grapple with possible solutions. Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change Nathaniel Rich August 1, 2018 December 22, 2018 The New York Times Magazine https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/01/magazine/climate-change-losing-earth.html External links Category:Climate change Category:Business