Statistics

244px|thumb|right|To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of His purpose. ~ Florence Nightingale Statistics is a mathematical science pertaining to the collection, analysis, interpretation and presentation of data. Quotes A New challenges driven by evolving global technology inspire fresh trends and approaches in teaching statistics in business schools of the 21st century. Amir Aczel (2012), "Complete Business Statistics", 8th Edition, ISBN: 978-1935938187, p. vii. In the 1930s English statistical theory was beginning to travel, with contributions from, amongst others, Hotelling and Snedecor in America and Darmois in France, but its home was still in England where there were four important centres: University College London, Rothamsted Experimental Station, Edinburgh University and Cambridge University with University College and Rothamsted far in the lead. Although Cambridge University was slow to adopt modern statistical theory, Cambridge men–Karl Pearson, Edmund Whittaker and Ronald Fisher–had put the other places on the statistical map. University College was the most established centre and its importance went back to 1893 when Karl Pearson, the professor of applied mathematics, first collaborated with Raphael Weldon, the professor of zoology on a subject they called “biometry.” There was a second surge in the “English statistical school” associated with R. A. Fisher who went to work at Rothamsted in 1919. Aldrich John England and Continental Probability in the Inter-War Years Electronic Journal for History of Probability and Statistics December 2009 5 2 5-6 http://www.jehps.net/Decembre2009/Aldrich.pdf B I wish that people would be persuaded that psychological experiments, especially those on the complex functions, are not improved (by large studies); the statistical method gives only mediocre results; some recent examples demonstrate that. The American authors, who love to do things big, often publish experiments that have been conducted on hundreds and thousands of people; they instinctively obey the prejudice that the persuasiveness of a work is proportional to the number of observations. This is only an illusion. Alfred Binet (1903). L’Etude experimentale de l’intelligence. Paris: Schleicher Freres and Cie. p. 299; As cited in: Carson (1999, 360) thumb|Reproduction of an item from the 1908 Binet-Simon intelligence scale, showing three pairs of pictures, about which the tested child was asked, "Which of these two faces is the prettier?" Reproduced from the article "A Practical Guide for Administering the Binet-Simon Scale for Measuring Intelligence" by J. W. Wallace Wallin in the March 1911 issue of the journal The Psychological Clinic (volume 5 number 1), public domain. All models are wrong, but some are useful George E. P. Box, 1979 Statisticians, like artists, have the bad habit of falling in love with their models. Attributed to statistician, George E. P. Box ...the statistician knows...that in nature there never was a normal distribution, there never was a straight line, yet with normal and linear assumptions, known to be false, he can often derive results which match, to a useful approximation, those found in the real world. George Box (JASA, 1976, Vol. 71, 791-799) Life in financial markets has got no relation to sigmas. I mean, if everybody who had ever operated in financial markets had never had any concept of standard errors, and so on, they would be a lot better off. Warren Buffett, TIMESAVER EDIT - FULL Q&A Warrant Buffett Charlie 2012 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting IDP, YouTube June 2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1dA3R0BUC4 (quote at 3:07:45 of 4:28:07) C Strange events permit themselves the luxury of occurring. Charlie Chan in a book by Behind That Curtain 1928 Earl Derr Biggers If you torture the data enough, nature will always confess. Ronald Coase How should economists choose? 1982 American Enterprise Institute 16 https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NutterLectures03.pdf H A new branch of mathematics was developed over the last 200 years to deal with the more complex aspect of reality: statistics. Yuval Noah Harari, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (2011), Chapter 14: "The Discovery of Ignorance" Confucius, Buddha, Jesus and Muhammad would have been bewildered if you'd have told them that in order to understand the human mind and cure its illness you must first study statistics. Yuval Noah Harari, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (2011), Chapter 14: "The Discovery of Ignorance" There are no routine statistical questions, only questionable statistical routines. David Cox (quoted by Christopher Chatfield in Avoiding Statistical Pitfalls 1991 p. 240) J.M. Hammersley (quoted by Rolf Sundberg in Interpretation of unreplicated two-level factorial experiments, by examples p. 2) Statistics is the science of learning from data, and of measuring, controlling, and communicating uncertainty. Why Statistics? 10.1126/science.1218685 Science 2012 Marie Davidian and Thomas A. Louis https://science.sciencemag.org/content/336/6077/12 I had been so terrorized by scientific statistics (if ten million people each leave over three grains of rice from their lunch, how many sacks of rice are wasted in one day; if ten million people each economize one paper handkerchief a day, how much pulp will be saved?) that whenever I left over a single grain of rice, whenever I blew my nose, I imagined that I was wasting mountains of rice, tons of paper, and I fell prey to a mood dark as if I had committed some terrible crime. But these were the lies of science, the lies of statistics and mathematics: you can't collect three grains of rice from everybody. Osamu Dazai, No Longer Human (1948) In our private life as in our collective life there is no other truth than a statistical one. Simone de Beauvoir, The Ethics of Ambiguity 1948 Philosophical Library 978-0-8065-0160-4 Part III: The Positive Aspect of Ambiguity There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain in "Chapters from My Autobiography — XX", North American Review No. DCXVIII (JULY 5, 1907) . His attribution is unverified and the origin is uncertain: see Lies, damned lies, and statistics and Leonard H. Courtney. Other authors to whom the quote has been attributed, as reported in Respectfully Quoted: A Dictionary of Quotations (1989), include Henry Labouchère, Abram S. Hewitt, and Holloway H. Frost. Statistics has been the most successful information science.Those who ignore Statistics are condemned to reinvent it. Attributed to Bradley Efron by Jerome H. Friedman The Role of Statistics in the Data Revolution? International Statistical Review 69 2001 April 5-10 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2001.tb00474.x/abstract The rise of biometry in this 20th century, like that of geometry in the 3rd century before Christ, seems to mark out one of the great ages or critical periods in the advance of the human understanding. Sir R.A. Fisher w:Ronald Fisher Biometry Biometrics 4 1948 Sept 217-219 http://www.tibs.org/WorkArea/showcontent.aspx?id=632 To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of. R.A. Fisher w:Ronald Fisher Presidential Address Sankhyā: The Indian Journal of Statistics 4 1938 17 http://www.jstor.org/stable/40383882 briefly, and in its most concrete form, the object of statistical methods is the reduction of data. A quantity of data, which usually by its mere bulk is incapable of entering the mind, is to be replaced by relatively few quantities which shall adequately represent the whole, or which, in other words, shall contain as much as possible, ideally the whole, of the relevant information contained in the original data. R.A. Fisher On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics 1922 311 10.1098/rsta.1922.0009 It is a statistical commonplace that the interpretation of a body of data requires a knowledge of how it was obtained. R.A. Fisher THE EFFECT OF METHODS OF ASCERTAINMENT UPON THE ESTIMATION OF FREQUENCIES 1934 13 10.1111/j.1469-1809.1934.tb02105.x “Without Statistics and numbers, it's a mere thought of unconvincing opinions.” Hary Gunarto, (2019), 'Parametric & Nonparametric Data Analysis for Social Research: IBM SPSS,' ISBN: 978-620-0-11872-1. A well-wrapped statistic is better than Hitler's "big lie"; it misleads, yet it cannot be pinned on you. Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics (1954), introduction Statistics is both the science of uncertainty and the technology of extracting information from data. Modern statistics: the myth and the magic Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 2009 David J. Hand https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00583.x Statistics are often the last refuge of the antihumanist. Shulamith Hareven "No One Asked the Medics" in The Vocabulary of Peace: Life, Culture, and Politics in the Middle East (1995) I think the essential thing if you want to be a good statistician, as opposed to being a mathematician, is to talk to people and find out what they're doing and why they're doing it. 4 1989 245 A Conversation with F. N. David Florence Nightingale David and Nan M. Laird https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1177012487 Statistical Science Most people don’t have a good understanding of just how variable statistics are, even when you are dealing with robots. Jonah Keri, Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong (2007), p. 246 Statistics is the art of stating in precise terms that which one does not know. STATISTICS, MOLIERE AND HENRY ADAMS William Kruskal 1965 The Centennial Review https://www.jstor.org/stable/23737930 80 Statistics is the study and informed application of methods for reaching conclusions about the world from fallible observations. STATISTICS, MOLIERE AND HENRY ADAMS William Kruskal 1965 The Centennial Review https://www.jstor.org/stable/23737930 80 Each of us has been doing statistics all his life, in the sense that each of us has been busily reaching conclusions based on empirical observations. STATISTICS, MOLIERE AND HENRY ADAMS William Kruskal 1965 The Centennial Review https://www.jstor.org/stable/23737930 81 Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. Aaron Levenstein (1911–1986), quoted by Laurence J. Peter in Quotations for Our Time (1977), requoted in Oxford Essential Quotations (4 ed.) (2016) Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lampposts — for support rather than illumination. Andrew Lang, in a 1910 speech: as quoted in Alan L. Mackay, The Harvest of a Quiet Eye (1977), and reported in Chambers Dictionary of Quotations (2005), p. 488. Uncertainty is a personal matter; it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty. Dennis Lindley, Understanding Uncertainty (2006) Without the aid of statistics nothing like real medicine is possible. Pierre Charles Alexandre Louis Quoted in Evidence-based medicine: old French wine with a new Canadian label?, P K Rangachari, J R Soc Med. 1997 May; 90(5): 280–284. According to a University College London study (2014), 40% of women surveyed with severe mental illness had suffered rape or attempted rape in adulthood, and 53% of those had attempted suicide as a result. In the general population, 7% of women had been victims of rape or attempted rape, of whom 3% had attempted suicide. If these statistics don't sound accurate to you, your hesitation or disbelief supports another reality about rape research: Because so many individuals who survive a rape may not report a rape (for a multitude of reasons), statistics have limited meaning. Seth Meyers, "Loving or Having Sex with a Woman Who's Been Raped", Psychology Today, (May 05, 2017) A statistical procedure is not an automatic, mechanical truth-generating machine. Paul E. Meehl 1992 Factors and Taxa, Traits and Types, Differences of Degree and Differences in Kind Journal of Personality 60(1) 10.1111/j.1467-6494.1992.tb00269.x 143 While it is easy to lie with statistics, it is even easier to lie without them. Attributed to Frederick Mosteller in 0883-4237 20 3 239-241 Murray Charles How to Accuse the Other Guy of Lying with Statistics Statistical Science 2011-08-22 2005 http://www.jstor.org/stable/20061179 A statistical analysis, properly conducted, is a delicate dissection of uncertainties, a surgery of suppositions. Facts from Figures 1951 Michael J. Moroney 3 9780140202366 91.7 percent of all statistics are made-up on the spot. Anonymous In God we trust. All others must bring data. Variants: In God we trust. All others must have data. and In God we trust, others must provide data. Proverbial, variant of "In God we trust. All others (pay) cash.", which dates to at least 1877 US. Earliest attestation 1978, which already refers to it as a cliche: I should like to close by citing a well-recognized cliche in scientific circles. The cliche is, "In God we trust, others must provide data." Effect of Smoking on Nonsmokers: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Tobacco of the Committee on Agriculture, House of Representatives, Ninety-fifth Congress, Second Session, September 7, 1978, p. 5 (quoting Edwin R. Fisher, brother of Bernard Fisher) Other earlier example 1981, in "Test Bias: in God We Trust; All Others Must Have Data", Cecil R. Reynolds, Invited address for the APA Division of Evaluation and Measurement, to the annual meeting of the American Psychological Association, August 1981. Published as "Test bias: In God we trust, all others must have data." Journal of Special Education, 17(3), 214–268 (1983), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/002246698301700303 Later attestation“In God we trust. All others must bring data”, Barry Popik, The Big Apple, October 19, 2015 "1984 W. J. Youden Memorial Address: The Key Role of Statisticians in the Transformation of North American Industry", by Brian L. Joiner (at American Statistical Association fall conference), transcript published variously: ASQ Statistics Division Newsletter, volume 6, number 2 (1985) The American Statistician Vol. 39, No. 3 (Aug., 1985), pp. 224-227, DOI: 10.2307/2683943, p. 226: We [Statisticians] can show how understanding processes helps provide ways for data-based communication of departmental needs. We can help to eliminate finger-pointing and get down to the facts. "In God we trust. All others must bring data." Or, "Facts often kill a good argument." Frequently attributed to W. Edwards Deming; it appears in The Deming Management Method, by Mary Walton, 1986, p. 96, without any attribution, to Deming or anyone else: Chapter 20: Doing It with Data: "In God we trust. All others must bring data." If there is a credo for statisticians, it is that. To understand God's thoughts we must study statistics, for these are the measure of his purpose. Florence Nightingale, quoted in Karl Pearson, Life of Francis Galton, vol.II, ch.xiii, sect.i The true foundation of theology is to ascertain the character of God. It is by the art of statistics that law in the social sphere can be ascertained and codified, and certain aspects of the character of God thereby revealed. The study of statistics is thus a religious service. Attributed to Florence Nightingale by F.N. David in Games, Gods, and Gambling: A History of Probability and Statistical Ideas, 1962, page 103. Average a left-hander with a right-hander and what do you get? Donald Norman, The Design of Everyday Things (1988), Ch. 6, p. 162 With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk. Attributed to von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in "A meeting with Enrico Fermi" in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297 Although its evolution in the United States differed markedly from that of applied mathematics, statistics, too, benefited from the presence of the emigres and from the overall war effort. After a protracted period of professional differentiation from the social scientists and from the social sciences, mathematical statisticians had formed their own society, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS), in 1935. By 1938, the IMS had also taken over responsibility for the Annals of Mathematical Statistics, a journal that had been founded in 1929 to serve the needs of the more mathematically and theoretically inclined statistical practitioners. Thus, when refugees like Neyman, William Feller, Mark Kac, and Abraham Wald took up positions in the United States at Berkeley, Brown, Cornell, and Columbia, respectively, they were able to participate in a young, but viable, community of mathematical statisticians. Karen Hunger Parshall, "Perspectives on American Mathematics", Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society (2000) 37: 381–405. Numbers and stats bob in a sentimental slop, a swampy slurry of bits of hard data and buckets of mushy manipulation. Laura Penny, More Money Than Brains, p. 28 The individual source of the statistics may easily be the weakest link. Harold Cox tells a story of his life as a young man in India. He quoted some statistics to a Judge, an Englishman, and a very good fellow. His friend said, Cox, when you are a bit older, you will not quote Indian statistics with that assurance. The Government are very keen on amassing statistics—they collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But what you must never forget is that every one of those figures comes in the first instance from the chowty dar [chowkidar] (village watchman), who just puts down what he damn pleases. Josiah Stamp, recounting a story from Harold Cox, Some Economic Factors in Modern Life (1929), p. 258. Thomasina: If there is an equation for a curve like a bell, there must be an equation for one like a bluebell, and if a bluebell, why not a rose? Do we believe nature is written in numbers? Septimus: We do. Thomasina: Then why do your shapes describe only the shapes of manufacture? Septimus: I do not know. Thomasina: Armed thus, God could only make a cabinet. Tom Stoppard, Arcadia (1993) There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up. Archie Goodwin, in Rex Stout's Nero Wolfe novel Death of a Doxy (1966) The main problem with statistics is statisticians. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, tweet, 29 August 2020 The best thing about being a statistician is that you get to play in everyone's backyard John Tukey, quoted by David Leonhardt in The New York Times Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise. John Tukey The future of data analysis Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (1) 1962 13 https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoms/1177704711 Variant: "An approximate answer to the right question is worth a great deal more than a precise answer to the wrong question." "as the renowned statistician John Tukey once reportedly said," according to Super Freakonomics page 224. The combination of some data and an aching desire for an answer does not ensure that a reasonable answer can be extracted from a given body of data. Sunset salvo The American Statistician http://www.jstor.org/pss/2683137 1986 John Tukey The death of one man is a tragedy, the death of millions is a statistic. Variants: One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is just a statistic. A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic. When one dies, it is a tragedy. When a million die, it is a statistic. This quotation may originate from "Französischer Witz" (1925) by Kurt Tucholsky: "Darauf sagt ein Diplomat vom Quai d'Orsay: «Der Krieg? Ich kann das nicht so schrecklich finden! Der Tod eines Menschen: das ist eine Katastrophe. Hunderttausend Tote: das ist eine Statistik!»" ("To which a Quai d'Orsay diplomat replies: «The war? I can't find it so terrible! The death of one man: that is a catastrophe. One hundred thousand deaths: that is a statistic!»") Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read or write. Attributed to H. G. Wells by Darrell Huff in How to Lie with Statistics (1954), epigraph The actual quote referenced mathematics in general rather than statistics: The great body of physical science, a great deal of the essential fact of financial science, and endless social and political problems are only accessible and only thinkable to those who have had a sound training in mathematical analysis, and the time may not be very remote when it will be understood that for complete initiation as an efficient citizen of one of the new great complex world-wide States that are now developing, it is as necessary to be able to compute, to think in averages and maxima and minima, as it is now to be able to read and write. [HG Wells 1911, Mankind in the Making 2041] Tankard James W Jr. wikipedia:James_W._Tankard,_Jr. The H.G. Wells quote on statistics: A question of accuracy Historia Mathematica 6 1 30-33 Elsevier Inc. The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA February 1979 English http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0315086079901010 10.1016/0315-0860(79)90101-0 December 2015 According to Tankard: It might be argued that statistics and mathematics were closely related in Wells' mind, and that when he wrote this passage he was to some extent thinking of procedures we would now regard as statistics. That is conjecture, however. Earlier sections of the paragraph deal with arithmetic and geometry, and its literal topic is mathematics. It doesn't contain the word "statistics " even though the term was clearly in use at the time of Well:' writing [Yule 19051]. Statistics is a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty Statistics: A New Approach 3 1956 W. Allen Willis and Harry V. Roberts The Free Press While nothing is more uncertain than the duration of a single life, nothing is more certain than the average duration of a thousand lives. Attributed to Elizur Wright The bulk of statistical criticism is of the hit-and-run variety – the critic points out some real or fancied flaw and supposes that his job is done. Indeed, some critics appear to labor under the misconception that if some flaw can be found in a study, this automatically in validates the author’s conclusions. Since the critic makes no attempt to develop a tenable counterhypothesis, his performance is on a par with that of a proponent who glances at his data and then jumps to his conclusion. Irwin D.J. Bross. Observational Studies, Volume 4, Issue 2, 2018, pp. 1-10 See also Probability Randomness References External links statistics Category:Mathematics Category:Themes