Transportation Deployment Casebook/2025/Domestic Australian Aviation

Domestic Australian Aviation Domestic aviation is the dominant passenger transportation mode between major Australian cities and the second mode by passenger kilometres for domestic travel, behind the private car. It has existed for over 100 years and is now a mature form of transport, with over 59 million passenger boardings in 2024Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. (2025). Australian Domestic Airline Activity—time series. Retrieved 9th March from https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/domestic_airline_activity-time_series. thumb|Sydney's Kingsford Smith Airport, the busiest Airport in Australia with 24 million domestic passenger movements in 2023/24Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics. (2025). Airport Traffic Data. Retrieved 9th March from https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/airport_traffic_data Technology Domestic Aviation today consists of large narrow body aircraft, powered by twin jet engines and capable of transporting more than 150 passengers across Australia at 33,000 feet and 850km/hrBoeing 737-800. (2024). Retrieved 9th March from https://www.qantas.com/au/en/qantas-experience/onboard/seat-maps/boeing-737-800.html. Initially, airlines operated small charter flights with planes flying at 90 miles per hour (150km/hr) Planes allow for distant cities to connect within hours. Infrastructure required airports that have to be built on land far from homes to minimise their noise impact, reducing cost of land acquisition compared to railways, but increase journey times and inconvenience as generally passengers will have to travel further to get to an airport compared to other modes of transportation. The main advantages of domestic aviation in Australia is the speed and service offering. Sydney is over 700km from both Brisbane and Melbourne, requiring long drives or train rides. Trains are frequent with many flights a day, compared to two daily trains. The main markets for domestic aviation in Australia are business flyers and domestic tourists. Context thumb|Dual guage track is utilised on the approach into Perth to allow the narrow gauge suburban rail to share the corridor with the transcontenintal Indian Pacific train. Road transport is essential for intercity transport, especially considering the incompatible gauges between Australian States. Australia is a vast and low density country, posing transport issues related to long-distance travel. Towns could be days away from supplies and external help, with long distances between watering holes along the way. To foster economic growth and intercity connectivity, aviation was well positioned to gain a foothold in Australia post-World War One. Invention Australia was an early adopter of aviation, and had a number of pioneers, including Sir Charles Kingsford Smith. Among his accomplishments is the first trans-pacific flight with Charles Ulm State Library of New South Wales. "Smithy" and the Southern Cross. https://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/stories/aviation-australia/smithy-and-southern-cross. These early pioneers were flying in small wooden aircraft with steel tubing, capable of carrying up to a dozen passengers at about 150km/hr. Sea planes Sea planes were used on both domestic and international flights, providing services to a broader range of destinations and not requiring the construction of airfields before the first passengers arrive. Jet Engines Jet engines enabled longer ranges and higher speeds, improving the gap in speed and competitiveness between planes and ground based transportation. Early Market Development Australian aviation began with the establishment of Queensland And Northern Territory Aerial Services (QANTAS) in 1920 About Us. (2024). Retrieved 9th March from https://www.qantas.com/au/en/about-us.html. The initial business operated charter flights, providing assistance during , the network grew to 2,380 by 1929 Early Years. (2024). Retrieved 9th March from https://www.qantas.com/au/en/about-us/our-company/our-history/early-years-1918-1938.html. thumb|Early domestic air routes of Australia in 1925 Domestic aviation was disrupted during World War 2 but due to technological advances and Royal Australian Air Force trained pilots ushered in the jet age of aviation by the 1960s. The Role of Policy In the 1950s, Australia had two main airline operators. Government-owned Trans-Australia Airlines and privately owned Australian National Airways (ANA). ANA wasn’t performing well and the government settled on interventionist policies to protect the two companies and competition between them. This lead to increases in prices and eventually the Hawke Government commissioned the Independent Review of Economic Regulation of Domestic Aviation in 1985. The government decided to remove the two-airline restrictions in 1990. Privatisation delivered increased competition, lower fares and improved service quality. Patronage climbed to record levels, reaching 20 million passengers within two years, 30% more than pre-privatisation numbers. Growth The aviation industry grew after privatisation, with QANTAS being listed in 1995Privatisation (2024). Retrieved 9th March from https://www.qantas.com/au/en/about-us/our-company/our-history/privatisation-1995-2019.html. Domestic Aviation continued to grow by millions every year during the 2000s, fuelled by the strong Australian economy, especially the mining sector. By 2013 the growth had started to settle around 60 million passengers per year, about three times the amount before privatisation 23 years ago. Maturity Aviation became the second mode by passenger kilometres in 1993, surpassing "other", mainly composed of light commercial vehicles. thumb|Australian domestic travel by mode in billion passenger kilometres, from 1974 to 2023. Modern Developments The Australian Domestic Aviation Market has stagnated since 2013, with post-COVID19 recovery seemingly complete. Aviation as a mode for intercity travel has a large monopoly with car and rail remaining slow. Airports are continuing to work on customer experience with streamlined check-in and security processes. Fuel efficiency has continually increased, helping to further drive down the cost of air fares. This is due in part to winglets, a revolutionary design change to planes that can allow for about 5% fuel savingsHow winglets work. (2018). Aeroreport. Retrieved 9th March from https://aeroreport.de/en/good-to-know/how-winglets-work. As planes are already travelling close to the sound barrier, it is very difficult to increase in-vehicle speeds. Airlines have instead focused on improving other aspects of the journey, including 48-hour check ins, more flexible fares and more destinations. Future Some increase in domestic aviation is expected with the opening of Western Sydney Airport. Aviation is currently unsustainable with planes burning fossil fuels. There is no clear alternative available currently, with high speed rail still a distant Australian dream. The near future of domestic aviation in Australia therefore is driven by incremental gains in sustainability, including fuel efficiencies, sustainable aviation fuels, and continued technological improvements such as in-flight wifi. Quantitative In the 40 years since 1984, Australia’s domestic aviation has grown to five times the 1984 figure – compared to population less than doubling over the same period. To model this growth, the following three-parameter logistic function has been estimated: S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)] Variable Definition Value S(t) Predicted system in year t ~10,000,000 - ~100,000,000 K Saturation level, aka Smax 107,700,000 b Coefficient 0.073643401 t Time (years) 1984-2030 ti Inflection year S(ti)=1/2K 2011.4 (2012) R2 Coefficient of Determination 0.953688 thumb|Australian Domestic Aviation Number of Passengers The S-curve and the history of Australian domestic aviation closely match from 1984 until 2013, at which point the S-curve over-estimates the actual passengers. This is exacerbated when considering the drop and subsequent recovery post-COVID19, stagnating patronage since 2013. Comparing the final year of data available in 2024, there is now a discrepancy of 18 million passengers or 30%, suggesting the model’s K value of 108 million is overestimating the real maximum value which is closer to 60 million. Year Passengers carried Predicted Passengers Comments 1984 13,299,666 12,673,158 First record 1985 14,360,280 13,520,094 Independent Review of Economic Regulation of Domestic Aviation 1986 15,088,784 14,415,045 1987 15,875,026 15,359,574 1988 17,188,797 16,355,142 1989 12,935,552 17,403,079 1990 15,578,005 18,504,559 Deregulation of domestic aviation Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics. (1991). Deregulation of Domestic Aviation—The First Year. https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/1991/report_073 1991 19,644,591 19,660,574 1992 20,698,976 20,871,909 1993 23,000,492 22,139,109 Aviation overtakes “other” to become second most by passenger kilometres, behind cars. 1994 26,148,179 23,462,456 1995 27,814,635 24,841,937 QANTAS is privatised 1996 29,026,332 26,277,225 1997 29,202,250 27,767,649 1998 29,449,378 29,312,176 1999 30,416,589 30,909,393 2000 32,671,498 32,557,494 Virgin Blue starts, a low-cost carrier 2001 32,631,010 34,254,273 2002 31,060,313 35,997,119 2003 33,979,683 37,783,023 2004 38,822,111 39,608,586 2005 41,556,077 41,470,037 2006 44,256,699 43,363,258 2007 47,195,672 45,283,813 2008 50,459,239 47,226,990 2009 50,450,430 49,187,839 2010 53,967,293 51,161,224 2011 54,324,589 53,141,876 2012 56,571,415 55,124,446 2013 57,567,613 57,103,564 2014 57,554,550 59,073,901 2015 57,555,121 61,030,218 2016 58,992,966 62,967,427 2017 59,995,658 64,880,642 2018 61,112,315 66,765,225 2019 61,389,589 68,616,828 2020 19,445,556 70,431,429 COVID-19 2021 23,550,958 72,205,361 2022 50,197,542 73,935,335 2023 57,273,525 75,618,455 2024 59,287,685 77,252,225 Last full year available 2025 78,834,555 2026 80,363,752 2027 81,838,512 2028 83,257,909 2029 84,621,371 2030 85,928,664 References