2008 United States presidential election in Arizona

none June 2025 September 2023 2008 United States presidential election 2008 United States presidential election in Arizona Arizona presidential no 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona 2004 2012 United States presidential election in Arizona 2012 November 4, 2008 77.69% x200px John McCain official portrait 2009 (cropped).jpg John McCain Arizona Republican Party Arizona Sarah Palin 10 1,230,111 53.39% Obama portrait crop.jpg Barack Obama Arizona Democratic Party Illinois Joe Biden 0 1,034,707 44.91% 250px County results 250px Congressional district results 250px Precinct results McCain #F2B3BE 40–50% #E27F90 50–60% #CC2F4A 60–70% #D40000 70–80% #AA0000 80–90% #800000 90–100% Obama #B9D7FF 40–50% #86B6F2 50–60% #4389E3 60–70% #1666CB 70–80% #0645B4 80–90% #002B84 90–100% Tie/No Data #D4C4DC #808080 President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Barack Obama Democratic Party (United States) The 2008 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Arizona was won by Republican nominee and native son John McCain with an 8.48% margin of victory over Democrat Barack Obama. McCain had served as United States Senator from the state since 1987, and enjoyed high approval ratings. Prior to the election, sixteen of seventeen news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or a red state. Some polls taken near Election Day in 2008 showed Democrat Barack Obama closer than expected to winning it, but these did not come to fruition, as McCain won Arizona by high-single digits and carried all but four of the state's 15 counties.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arizona 2008-12-20 Nonetheless, this was closer than any of McCain's Senate victories and was a smaller margin than Bush's 10.5% margin 4 years earlier. Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without winning Gila, Greenlee, La Paz, or Pinal Counties since Arizona statehood in 1912, as well as the first to do so without winning Navajo County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Arizona was one of only two states that voted against Obama in both 2008 and 2012 that his vice president Joe Biden would go on to win in 2020, the other being Georgia. Primaries 2008 Arizona Democratic primary 2008 Arizona Republican primary Campaign Predictions There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day: +SourceRankingD.C. Political Report2009-01-01 D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html 2021-08-23 usurped https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html 2009-01-01Likely RCook Political Report2015-05-05 Presidential http://cookpolitical.com/presidential 2021-08-23 https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential 2015-05-05Lean RThe Takeaway2009-04-22 Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ 2021-08-23 https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ 2009-04-22Lean RElectoral-vote.comElectoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily https://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html 2021-08-23 electoral-vote.comLean RWashington PostBased on TakeawayLean RPoliticoPOLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com https://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html 2016-09-22 www.politico.comSolid RRealClearPolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5 2008-06-05 RealClearPolitics - Electoral MapToss-upFiveThirtyEightSolid RCQ PoliticsCQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/ dead https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08 June 14, 2009 December 20, 2009 CQ PoliticsLean RThe New York TimesNagourney Adam Zeleny Jeff Carter Shan 2008-11-04 The Electoral Map: Key States The New York Times http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse May 26, 2010Solid RCNN2008-10-31 October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs CNN http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ May 26, 2010 2010-06-19 https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ deadLean RNPRLean RMSNBCLean RFox NewsApril 27, 2010 Winning The Electoral College Fox News http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/Likely RAssociated Pressroadto270 http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/ 2016-09-22 hosted.ap.org December 8, 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081208002123/http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/ deadLikely RRasmussen ReportsElection 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update 2016-09-22 www.rasmussenreports.comSafe R Polling Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election#Arizona Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election: Arizona Opinion polls taken from February through to October 2008 showed McCain leading Obama by margins of between 1% and 21%. The final RealClearPolitics average gave the state an average of 53.8% for McCain, compared to 45.0% for Obama.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html Arizona: McCain vs. Obama June 3, 2009 RealClearPolitics Fundraising John McCain raised $7,448,622. Barack Obama raised $5,491,056.http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=AZ&cand_id=P00000001 Presidential Campaign Finance: AZ Contributions to All Candidates by 3 digit Zip Code June 3, 2009 Federal Election Commission https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085913/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=AZ&cand_id=P00000001 March 24, 2009 dead Advertising and visits Obama and his interest groups spent $1,510,900 in the state. McCain and his interest groups spent just $751.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/ CNN Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com May 26, 2010 The Democratic ticket did not visit the state. Arizona native John McCain visited the state 5 times in the election campaign.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/ CNN Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com May 26, 2010 Analysis Arizona has long been a Republican-dominated state. At the time, it was represented in the Senate by two Republicans (John McCain and Jon Kyl). After 1948, Arizona did not vote Democratic in a presidential race again until 1996, after which it did not vote Democrat again until 2020. In addition, both the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans. However, the Governor was Democrat Janet Napolitano, and both parties held four House seats each before the election. Arizona was McCain's home state and gave its 10 electoral votes to its favorite son. However, he won just under 54% of the vote. By comparison, he'd been reelected in 2004 with 77% of the vote, one of the largest margins of victory for a statewide race in Arizona history. This led to speculation that the race would have been far closer without McCain on the ballot.Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009. One major factor is the growing Hispanic vote in the state, a voting bloc that tends to favor the Democrats, although both George W. Bush and John McCain held moderate positions on illegal immigration. Arizona politics are dominated by Maricopa and Pima counties, home to Phoenix and Tucson respectively. Between them, these two counties cast almost three-fourths of the state's vote and elect a substantial majority of the legislature. Maricopa County, a Republican stronghold since 1948, gave McCain an 11-point victory. This alone was more than enough to make up for Obama's narrow victory in Democratic-leaning Tucson. McCain also did well elsewhere throughout the state, winning the more sparsely populated counties by double digits. The election also saw Republicans making gains in the state legislature, as the GOP picked up one seat in the State Senate and three seats in the State House. The Democrats, however, managed to win the open seat in Arizona 1, with former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick cruising to victory over Republican Sydney Hay, giving the Democrats a majority of the state's House seats for the first time in 60 years. Results Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin, Boston Tea Party nominee Charles Jay and independent candidate Jonathan Allen were registered write-in candidates in Arizona. PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,230,111 53.39% 10 Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,034,707 44.91% 0 Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 12,555 0.54% 0 Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 11,301 0.49% 0 Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,406 0.15% 0 Constitution Chuck Baldwin (write-in) Darrell Castle 1,371 0.06% 0 Independent Charles Jay (write-in) Barry Hess 16 0.00% 0 Independent Jonathan Allen (write-in) Jeffrey Stath 8 0.00% 0 Invalid or blank votes 27,376 1.18% — Totals 2,320,851 100.00% 10 Voter turnout 77.69%Source: http://www.azsos.gov/election/2008/General/Canvass2008GE.pdf STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 2008 General Election - November 4, 2008 2008-12-01 2008-12-06 Secretary of State of Arizona dead https://web.archive.org/web/20081219172036/http://www.azsos.gov/election/2008/General/Canvass2008GE.pdf December 19, 2008 By county CountyJohn McCainRepublicanBarack ObamaDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Apache8,55135.11%15,39063.19%4141.70%-6,839-28.08%24,355Cochise29,02659.14%18,94338.60%1,1122.27%10,08320.54%49,081Coconino22,18640.65%31,43357.59%9641.77%-9,247-16.94%54,583Gila14,09562.88%7,88435.17%4381.95%6,21127.71%22,417Graham8,37669.40%3,48728.89%2061.71%4,88940.51%12,069Greenlee1,71258.63%1,16539.90%431.47%54718.73%2,920La Paz3,50962.92%1,92934.59%1392.49%1,58028.33%5,577Maricopa746,44854.43%602,16643.91%22,7561.66%144,28210.52%1,371,370Mohave44,33365.20%22,09232.49%1,5702.31%22,24132.71%67,995Navajo19,76155.00%15,57943.36%5921.65%4,18211.64%35,932Pima182,40646.20%206,25452.24%6,1801.57%-23,848-6.04%394,840Pinal59,42156.38%44,25441.99%1,7231.63%15,16714.39%105,398Santa Cruz4,51833.86%8,68365.07%1431.07%-4,165-31.21%13,344Yavapai61,19261.08%36,88936.82%2,1042.10%24,30324.26%100,185Yuma24,57756.15%18,55942.40%6361.45%6,01813.75%43,772Totals1,230,11153.39%1,034,70744.91%39,0201.69%195,4048.48%2,303,838 right 220px Swing by county 220px Trend relative to the state by county Legend #d40000 Republican — >15% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5−15% #ff2a2a Republican — +10−12.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5−10% #ff8080 Republican — +5−7.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5−5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0−2.5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0−2.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5−5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5−7.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #09ceff Democratic — +10−12.5% #00bdec Democratic — +12.5−15% #00a1c8 Democratic — >15% By congressional district McCain won six of Arizona's eight congressional districts, including three districts that elected Democrats.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 December 15, 2008 June 3, 2009 Swing State Project District McCain Obama RepresentativeArizona 1 1st54.42%44.25%Rick Renzi (110th Congress)Ann Kirkpatrick (111th Congress)Arizona 2 2nd 60.75% 38.07%Trent FranksArizona 3 3rd 56.47% 42.34%John ShadeggArizona 4 4th 33.02% 65.73%Ed PastorArizona 5 5th 51.7% 47.17%Harry MitchellArizona 6 6th 61.32% 37.55%Jeff FlakeArizona 7 7th 41.65% 57.19%Raul GrijalvaArizona 8 8th 52.37% 46.43%Gabby Giffords Electors Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm Electoral College 2008-11-01 California Secretary of State dead https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm October 30, 2008 An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:Full Listing https://web.archive.org/web/20120214113952/http://www.azsos.gov/election/2008/general/fulllisting.htm February 14, 2012 Az presidential electors include ex-governors, activists - Tucson Citizen Morgue (1992-2009) Bruce Ash Kurt Davis Wes Gullett Sharon Harper Jack Londen Beverly Lockett Miller Lee Miller Bettina Nava Randy Pullen Michael Rappoport References Arizona Category:2008 Arizona elections 2008