2004 United States presidential election in New York

none June 2025 2004 United States presidential election June 2024 2004 United States presidential election in New York New York Flag of New York (1909–2020).svg presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in New York 2000 2008 United States presidential election in New York 2008 November 2, 2004 62.44% ( 1.74 pp) x200px John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Working Families Massachusetts John Edwards 31 4,314,280 58.37% George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Conservative Texas Dick Cheney 0 2,962,567 40.08% 400px County results 400px Congressional district results 400px Municipality results Kerry #B9D7FF 40–50% #86B6F2 50–60% #4389E3 60–70% #1666CB 70–80% #0645B4 80–90% Bush #F2B3BE 40–50% #E27F90 50–60% #CC2F4A 60–70% #D40000 70–80% #AA0000 80–90% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 18.3% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or a safe blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to have carried the state of New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the last one to finish within single digits of the Democratic opponent was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988. As expected, Kerry won the state of New York in a landslide. Statewide elections in New York are dominated by the heavily Democratic stronghold of New York City, the most populous city in the United States where around 40% of state residents live. Kerry received around 75% of the vote in the city, accounting for most of his statewide victory. New York gave Kerry his fourth largest statewide margin of victory, only behind Kerry's home state of Massachusetts and fellow New England states Rhode Island and Vermont. Although the state was left uncontested by both candidates, Bush did manage to significantly improve on his performance from 2000, reducing his margin of defeat from 25% to 18%; this is often attributed to increased support for Bush in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and a greater emphasis on the issue of counterterrorism. After 2004, no Republican presidential candidate would receive over 40% of the state's vote until 2024, when Donald Trump won 43.3%. Likewise, no Republican would carry Rockland County until Trump in 2024. George W. Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win Dutchess County. Bush was also the first president elected twice without ever carrying New York. Primaries 2004 New York Democratic presidential primary Campaign thumb|President George W. Bush at Ground Zero, 2001. Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm Archived copy dcpoliticalreport.com January 17, 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm November 21, 2010 usurped +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportSolid DCook Political ReportSolid DResearch 2000Solid DZogby InternationalLikely DWashington PostLikely DWashington DispatchLikely DWashington TimesSolid DThe New York TimesSolid DCNNLikely DNewsweekSolid DAssociated PressSolid DRasmussen ReportsLikely D Polling Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=36 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Uselectionatlas.org October 8, 2014 Fundraising Bush raised $11,994,227.https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Campaignmoney.com October 8, 2014 Kerry raised $27,733,309.https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President Campaignmoney.com October 8, 2014 Advertising and visits Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/IA/ CNN.com Specials Cnn.com October 8, 2014https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN.com Specials Cnn.com October 8, 2014 Analysis The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99%-to-24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14%-to-48.86% victory. The New York City suburbs consist of Long Island's Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a closer 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry. Exit polls showed 49% of voters in New York trusted Bush to handle terrorism, as opposed to 42% for Kerry.https://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NY/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004 Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, at the time, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Bush expanded his margin in New York City's northern exurban counties Dutchess, Orange and Putnam from 2000. Despite this, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County. According to exit polls, Senator Kerry won both males (56%–42%) and Females (60%–40%) over the president.https://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NY/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004 President Bush narrowly carried white voters in New York 50% to 49%.https://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NY/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004 This was not enough to overcome Senator Kerry carrying African Americans 90% to 9%, Latinos 75% to 24% and Asians 72% to 27%.https://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NY/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004 Kerry won all age groups over President Bush, with his closest wins being 52% to 47% among those aged 45–59 and 53% to 47% among those 60 and older.https://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NY/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004 Kerry also won all income groups and all levels of education.https://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/NY/P/00/epolls.0.html CNN.com Election 2004 Results 2004 United States presidential election in New Yorkhttp://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=36&f=0&off=0&elect=0&minper=0 Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York Uselectionatlas.org 2013-01-07 PartyCandidatePopular votesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Kerry 4,180,755 56.57% Working Families John Kerry 133,525 1.81% Total John F. Kerry 4,314,280 58.37% 31 Republican George W. Bush 2,806,993 37.98% Conservative George W. Bush 155,574 2.10% Total George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,962,567 40.08% 0 Independence Ralph Nader 84,247 1.14% Peace and Justice Ralph Nader 15,626 0.21% Total Ralph Nader 99,873 1.35% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,607 0.16% 0 Socialist Workers Roger Calero 2,405 0.03% 0 Constitution (write-in) Michael Peroutka 363 <0.01% 0 Green (write-in) David Cobb 138 <0.01% 0 Independent (write-in) John J. Kennedy 8 <0.01% 0 Independent (write-in) Michael Halpin 4 <0.01% 0 Socialist Equality (write-in) Bill Van Auken 4 <0.01% 0 Totals 7,391,036 100% 31 Voter turnout: 62.44% New York City results 2004 presidential election in New York CityManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueens Staten IslandTotal Democratic-Working FamiliesJohn F. Kerry526,765283,994514,973433,83568,4481,828,01574.97%82.06%82.80%74.86%71.66%42.74% Republican-ConservativeGeorge W. Bush107,40556,701167,149165,95490,325587,53424.10%16.73%16.53%24.30%27.41%56.40% Independence-Peace and JusticeRalph Nader6,0231,9734,8594,5351,19018,5800.76%0.94%0.58%0.71%0.75%0.74% LibertarianMichael Badnarik1,2761405705611342,0070.11%0.20%0.04%0.08%0.09%0.08% Socialist WorkersRoger Calero278121229177298340.03%0.04%0.04%0.03%0.03%0.02% Others20450104330173710.02%0.03%0.01%0.02%0.05%0.01%TOTAL641,951342,979687,884605,392160,1432,438,349100.00% By county County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Albany 89,323 60.68% 54,872 37.28% 3,004 2.04% 34,451 23.40% 147,199 Allegany 6,566 34.07% 12,310 63.88% 394 2.05% −5,744 −29.81% 19,270 Bronx 283,994 82.80% 56,701 16.53% 2,284 0.67% 227,293 66.27% 342,979 Broome 46,281 50.37% 43,568 47.41% 2,041 2.22% 2,713 2.96% 91,890 Cattaraugus 13,514 39.44% 20,051 58.52% 701 2.04% −6,537 −19.08% 34,266 Cayuga 17,534 48.64% 17,743 49.22% 775 2.15% −209 −0.58% 36,052 Chautauqua 27,257 44.72% 32,434 53.22% 1,253 2.06% −5,177 −8.50% 60,944 Chemung 17,080 43.71% 21,321 54.56% 674 1.72% −4,241 −10.85% 39,075 Chenango 9,277 43.47% 11,582 54.27% 482 2.26% −2,305 −10.80% 21,341 Clinton 17,624 52.24% 15,330 45.44% 782 2.32% 2,294 6.80% 33,736 Columbia 15,929 51.21% 14,457 46.48% 717 2.31% 1,472 4.73% 31,103 Cortland 10,670 46.88% 11,613 51.02% 477 2.09% −943 −4.14% 22,760 Delaware 8,724 41.22% 11,958 56.49% 485 2.29% −3,234 −15.27% 21,167 Dutchess 58,232 47.01% 63,372 51.16% 2,277 1.84% −5,140 −4.15% 123,881 Erie 251,090 56.41% 184,423 41.43% 9,625 2.17% 66,667 14.98% 445,138 Essex 8,768 45.95% 9,869 51.72% 445 2.34% −1,101 −5.77% 19,082 Franklin 9,543 52.10% 8,383 45.77% 390 2.13% 1,160 6.33% 18,316 Fulton 9,202 41.42% 12,570 56.58% 443 1.99% −3,368 −15.16% 22,215 Genesee 10,331 37.46% 16,725 60.64% 524 1.90% −6,394 −23.18% 27,580 Greene 8,933 39.88% 12,996 58.02% 469 2.10% −4,063 −18.14% 22,398 Hamilton 1,145 30.99% 2,475 66.98% 75 2.03% −1,330 −35.99% 3,695 Herkimer 11,675 41.24% 16,024 56.60% 611 2.15% −4,349 −15.36% 28,310 Jefferson 16,860 43.45% 21,231 54.72% 709 1.83% −4,371 −11.27% 38,800 Kings 514,973 74.86% 167,149 24.30% 5,762 0.84% 347,824 50.56% 687,884 Lewis 4,546 39.89% 6,624 58.12% 227 1.99% −2,078 −18.23% 11,397 Livingston 11,504 38.41% 17,729 59.20% 715 2.39% −6,225 −20.79% 29,948 Madison 13,121 43.32% 16,537 54.60% 629 2.08% −3,416 −11.28% 30,287 Monroe 173,497 50.57% 163,545 47.67% 6,022 1.76% 9,952 2.90% 343,064 Montgomery 9,449 44.53% 11,338 53.43% 434 2.04% −1,889 −8.90% 21,221 Nassau 323,070 52.25% 288,355 46.63% 6,918 1.12% 34,715 5.62% 618,343 New York 526,765 82.06% 107,405 16.73% 7,781 1.21% 419,360 65.33% 641,951 Niagara 47,602 49.29% 47,111 48.78% 1,867 1.93% 491 0.51% 96,580 Oneida 40,792 42.77% 52,392 54.93% 2,197 2.30% −11,600 −12.16% 95,381 Onondaga 116,381 54.23% 94,006 43.80% 4,238 1.98% 22,375 10.43% 214,625 Ontario 21,166 42.24% 27,999 55.88% 945 1.89% −6,833 −13.64% 50,110 Orange 63,394 43.82% 79,089 54.67% 2,190 1.51% −15,695 −10.85% 144,673 Orleans 5,959 35.95% 10,317 62.24% 301 1.81% −4,358 −26.29% 16,577 Oswego 24,133 46.76% 26,325 51.01% 1,149 2.23% −2,192 −4.25% 51,607 Otsego 12,723 47.74% 13,342 50.06% 587 2.20% −619 −2.32% 26,652 Putnam 19,575 42.03% 26,356 56.59% 640 1.37% −6,781 −14.56% 46,571 Queens 433,835 71.66% 165,954 27.41% 5,603 0.93% 267,881 44.25% 605,392 Rensselaer 36,075 49.75% 34,734 47.90% 1,705 2.35% 1,341 1.85% 72,514 Richmond 68,448 42.74% 90,325 56.40% 1,370 0.85% −21,877 −13.66% 160,143 Rockland 64,191 48.91% 65,130 49.63% 1,910 1.46% −939 −0.72% 131,231 Saratoga 48,730 45.60% 56,158 52.55% 1,985 1.86% −7,428 −6.95% 106,873 Schenectady 35,971 51.78% 32,066 46.16% 1,432 2.06% 3,905 5.62% 69,469 Schoharie 5,630 38.67% 8,591 59.01% 338 2.33% −2,961 −20.34% 14,559 Schuyler 3,445 40.10% 4,960 57.74% 185 2.16% −1,515 −17.64% 8,590 Seneca 6,979 45.54% 7,981 52.08% 365 2.38% −1,002 −6.54% 15,325 St. Lawrence 22,857 54.73% 18,029 43.17% 875 2.09% 4,828 11.56% 41,761 Steuben 14,523 34.35% 26,980 63.81% 781 1.85% −12,457 −29.46% 42,284 Suffolk 315,909 49.46% 309,949 48.53% 12,854 2.01% 5,960 0.93% 638,712 Sullivan 15,034 48.55% 15,319 49.47% 613 1.98% −285 −0.92% 30,966 Tioga 9,694 40.56% 13,762 57.58% 446 1.87% −4,068 −17.02% 23,902 Tompkins 27,229 64.19% 13,994 32.99% 1,198 2.82% 13,235 31.20% 42,421 Ulster 47,602 54.27% 37,821 43.12% 2,289 2.61% 9,781 11.15% 87,712 Warren 13,405 43.16% 16,969 54.63% 685 2.20% −3,564 −11.47% 31,059 Washington 10,624 42.32% 13,827 55.08% 652 2.59% −3,203 −12.76% 25,103 Wayne 15,709 38.11% 24,709 59.94% 802 1.94% −9,000 −21.83% 41,220 Westchester 229,849 58.08% 159,628 40.33% 6,293 1.59% 70,221 17.75% 395,770 Wyoming 6,134 33.76% 11,745 64.64% 290 1.59% −5,611 −30.88% 18,169 Yates 4,205 39.26% 6,309 58.90% 197 1.83% −2,104 −19.64% 10,711Totals4,314,28058.36%2,962,56740.08%115,1071.56%1,351,71318.28%7,391,954 right 300px Swing by county Legend #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% #d40000 Republican — +>15% 300px Trend by county Legend #00a1c8 Democratic — +>15% #00bdec Democratic — +12.5-15% #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% 300px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cayuga (county seat: Auburn) Montgomery (county seat: Fonda) Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City) Rockland (county seat: New City) Seneca (county seat: Waterloo) Sullivan (county seat: Monticello) 2004 Presidential General Election Results - New York https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=36 Dave Leip's election atlas2000 Presidential General Election Results - New York https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2000&fips=36&off=0&elect=0&f=0 Dave Leip's election atlas By congressional district Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2004&fips=36&f=0&off=0&elect=0&datatype=cd&def=1 Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - County Data District Bush Kerry RepresentativeNew York 1 1st 49.4% 48.7%Tim BishopNew York 2 2nd 45% 53%Steve IsraelNew York 3 3rd 52% 47%Peter T. KingNew York 4 4th 44% 55%Carolyn McCarthyNew York 5 5th 36% 63%Gary AckermanNew York 6 6th 15% 84%Gregory W. MeeksNew York 7 7th 25% 74%Joseph CrowleyNew York 8 8th 27% 72%Jerrold NadlerNew York 9 9th 43% 56%Anthony D. WeinerNew York 10 10th 13% 86%Edolphus TownsNew York 11 11th 13% 86%Major OwensNew York 12 12th 19% 80%Nydia VelasquezNew York 13 13th 55% 45%Vito FossellaNew York 14 14th 24% 74%Carolyn B. MaloneyNew York 15 15th 9% 90%Charlie RangelNew York 16 16th 10% 89%Jose SerranoNew York 17 17th 33% 66%Eliot L. EngelNew York 18 18th 42% 57%Nita LoweyNew York 19 19th 53% 45%Sue W. KellyNew York 20 20th 53% 45%John E. SweeneyNew York 21 21st 43% 55%Michael R. McNultyNew York 22 22nd 45% 53%Maurice HincheyNew York 23 23rd 51% 47%John M. McHughNew York 24 24th 52% 46%Sherwood BoehlertNew York 25 25th 48% 50%James T. WalshNew York 26 26th 55% 43%Thomas M. ReynoldsNew York 27 27th44%53%Jack QuinnBrian HigginsNew York 28 28th 36% 62%Louise SlaughterNew York 29 29th56%42%Amo HoughtonRandy Kuhl Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards. Joseph Ashton Bill De Blasio Molly Clifford Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez Inez Dickens Danny Donahue Herman D. Farrell C. Virginia Fields Emily Giske Bea Gonzalez Alan Hevesi Frank Hoare Virginia Kee Peggy Kerry Denise King Len Lenihan Bertha Lewis Alan Lubin Thomas J. Manton Dennis Mehiel June O'Neill David Paterson Jose Rivera Rich Schaffer Chung Seto Sheldon Silver Eliot Spitzer Antoine Thompson Paul Tokasz Bill Wood Robert Zimmerman See also United States presidential elections in New York Presidency of George W. Bush References 2004 New York