2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky

none 2004 Kentucky Senate election March 2026 September 2023 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky Kentucky presidential no 1998 United States Senate election in Kentucky 1998 2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky 2010 November 2, 2004 150x150px Jim Bunning, official photo portrait, 111th Congress.jpg Jim Bunning Republican Party (United States) 873,507 50.66% Daniel Mongiardo by Gage Skidmore.jpg Daniel Mongiardo Democratic Party (United States) 850,855 49.34% 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg 300px County results Bunning: #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70% #d72f30 70–80% Mongiardo: #7996e2 50–60% #6674de 60–70% #584cde 70–80% #3933e5 80–90% U.S. Senator Jim Bunning Republican Party (United States) Jim Bunning Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat. Republican primary Candidates Jim Bunning, incumbent U.S. senator since 1999 Barry Metcalf, former state senator from Richmond and candidate for U.S. Senate in 1998 Results Republican primary results Jim Bunning (incumbent) Republican Party (United States) 96,545 84.00% Barry Metcalf Republican Party (United States) 18,395 16.00% 114,940 100.00% Democratic primary Background Former governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and state senator from Hazard. Candidates Daniel Mongiardo, physician and state senator from Hazard David Lynn Williams, perennial candidatehttp://www.wave3.com/Global/story.asp?S=1757828&nav=0RZFM0Pf Mongiardo Campaign Not Satisfied With Bunning Apology - wave3.com-Louisville News, Weather & Sports 2010-06-30 https://web.archive.org/web/20160303174542/http://www.wave3.com/Global/story.asp?S=1757828&nav=0RZFM0Pf 2016-03-03 dead Declined Paul E. Patton, former governor of Kentucky (19952003) Results thumb|300px|Results by county: #8da9e2 Mongiardo #8da9e2 50–60% #678cd7 60–70% #4170cd 70–80% #3358a2 80–90% #244079 >90% #73bc84 Williams #73bc84 50–60% #3fa457 60–70% Democratic primary resultshttp://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/F7DDBBD2-B8DE-49F1-89F4-96C33CB072C3/0/STATE.txt Archived copy 2011-04-17 https://web.archive.org/web/20110720150538/http://elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/F7DDBBD2-B8DE-49F1-89F4-96C33CB072C3/0/STATE.txt 2011-07-20 dead Daniel Mongiardo Democratic Party (United States) 142,162 64.92 David L. Williams Democratic Party (United States) 76,807 35.08 218,969 100.0 General election Candidates Jim Bunning, incumbent U.S. senator since 1999 (Republican) Daniel Mongiardo, physician and state senator from Hazard (Democratic) Campaign During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.Bunning apologizes for Saddam comparison https://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/state/kentucky/2004-04-01-bunning-apology_x.htm USA Today AP April 1, 2004 March 5, 2008Paul Farhi Bunning's Wild Pitches Tighten Kentucky Senate Race https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34265-2004Oct15.html The Washington Post October 15, 2004 March 5, 2008 A06 Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf. The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory. Predictions Source Ranking As of Sabato's Crystal BallThe Final Predictions https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/ Sabato's Crystal Ball November 2004 May 2, 2021 Lean R November 1, 2004 Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesizekey Key:A – all adultsRV – registered votersLV – likely votersV – unclear Marginof error JimBunning (R) DanielMongiardo (D) Other UndecidedSurveyUSAhttp://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY041031pressenamd.pdf Reports of Bunning's Demise Are Premature; Bush at Home in KY SurveyUSA October 31, 2004 June 3, 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20041108173627/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY041031pressenamd.pdf November 8, 2004SUSA Poll conducted for WHAS-TV & WLEX-TVOctober 28–30, 2004631 (LV)± 4.0%51%42%5%2%The Courier-Journalhttps://www.foxnews.com/story/poll-mongiardo-leads-in-ky-senate-race Poll: Mongiardo Leads in Ky. Senate Race Fox News October 25, 2004 June 3, 2025October 18–20, 2004690 (LV)± 3.7%49%43%–8%SurveyUSAhttp://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY041020pressenamd.pdf Has Bunning Stopped Free-Fall? Mongiardo Remains 14 pts Back SurveyUSA October 20, 2004 June 3, 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174313/http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY041020pressenamd.pdf November 8, 2004SUSAOctober 17–19, 2004623 (LV)± 4.0%53%39%6%2%Garin-Hart-Yang (D)http://www.fromtheroots.org/docs/DSCC-KY-poll-Oct18.pdf Recent Kentucky Survey Results Garin-Hart-Yang October 18, 2004 June 3, 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174317/http://www.fromtheroots.org/docs/DSCC-KY-poll-Oct18.pdf November 8, 2004DCCC Poll sponsored by the DSCC, which supports MongiardoOctober 15–17, 2004503 (LV)± 4.4%43%"lean" With voters who lean towards a given candidate43%–14%39%40%–21%Garin-Hart-Yang (D)DCCCOctober 6–7, 2004503 (LV)± 4.4%47%"lean"39%–14%43%37%–20%SurveyUSAhttp://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY041007pressenamd.pdf Mongiardo Cuts Into Bunning Lead for U.S. Senate in Kentucky SurveyUSA October 7, 2004 June 3, 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174412/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY041007pressenamd.pdf November 8, 2004SUSAOctober 4–6, 2004615 (LV)± 4.0%51%40%7%2%Public Opinion Strategies (R)https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2004/10/19/62530/- GOP Poll Also shows Bunning Sinking! Daily Kos October 19, 2004 June 3, 2025October 2004600 (LV)± 4.0%50%39%–11%The Courier-JournalSeptember 10–15, 2004657 (LV)± 3.8%51%34%–15%SurveyUSAhttp://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY040910pressenamend.pdf KY Remains Solidly Red: Bunning & Bush Win, Amendment Passes SurveyUSA September 10, 2004 June 3, 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20041108174418/http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY040910pressenamend.pdf November 8, 2004SUSASeptember 7–9, 2004659 (LV)± 3.9%54%35%9%2%Garin-Hart-Yang (D)https://bgdailynews.com/2004/05/26/bunning-campaign-disputes-poll-numbers-by-mongiardo/ Bunning campaign disputes poll numbers by Mongiardo Christopher Miller Bowling Green Daily News May 26, 2004 June 3, 2025https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2004/6/9/32800/- KY Bunning (R) 53 Mangiardo (D) 34 Daily Kos June 9, 2004 June 3, 2025Poll sponsored by Mongiardo's campaignMay 19–20, 2004504 (LV)± 4.5%48%39%–13% Results 2004 Kentucky U.S. Senator general election http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/1283C01A-3F26-4821-8336-5878446F15E4/173402/STATE.TXT Archived copy 2010-05-12 https://web.archive.org/web/20100520054957/http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/1283C01A-3F26-4821-8336-5878446F15E4/173402/STATE.TXT 2010-05-20 dead Republican Party (United States) Jim Bunning (incumbent) 873,507 50.66% +0.91% Democratic Party (United States) Daniel Mongiardo 850,855 49.34% +0.18% 1,724,362 Republican Party (United States) By county County Bunning Votes Mongiardo Votes Adair 69% 4,857 31% 2,151 Allen 70% 4,640 30% 2,030 Anderson 51% 4,676 49% 4,540 Ballard 43% 1,752 57% 2,331 Barren 58% 8,749 42% 6,459 Bath 37% 1,673 63% 2,910 Bell 44% 4,442 56% 5,646 Boone 71% 31,162 29% 12,543 Bourbon 46% 3,614 54% 4,250 Boyd 49% 10,181 51% 10,713 Boyle 52% 6,179 48% 5,806 Bracken 66% 2,249 34% 1,183 Breathitt 28% 1,607 72% 4,201 Breckinridge 57% 4,633 43% 3,550 Bullitt 57% 15,675 43% 11,913 Butler 70% 3,665 30% 1,601 Caldwell 50% 3,025 50% 3,034 Calloway 51% 7,456 49% 7,063 Campbell 64% 24,603 36% 14,079 Carlisle 48% 1,327 52% 1,412 Carroll 48% 1,788 52% 1,971 Carter 45% 4,794 55% 5,754 Casey 75% 4,483 25% 1,476 Christian 63% 12,331 37% 7,304 Clark 48% 7,047 52% 7,559 Clay 62% 4,336 38% 2,643 Clinton 77% 3,094 23% 937 Crittenden 55% 2,214 45% 1,813 Cumberland 73% 2,103 27% 782 Daviess 51% 20,148 49% 19,739 Edmonson 62% 3,165 38% 1,942 Elliott 28% 801 72% 2,025 Estill 55% 2,892 45% 2,414 Fayette 41% 50,209 59% 70,798 Fleming 52% 3,080 48% 2,815 Floyd 29% 5,015 71% 12,092 Franklin 34% 7,998 66% 15,324 Fulton 46% 1,237 54% 1,426 Gallatin 59% 1,736 41% 1,184 Garrard 60% 3,767 40% 2,556 Grant 65% 5,497 35% 3,007 Graves 48% 7,448 52% 8,036 Grayson 62% 5,894 38% 3,618 Green 68% 3,324 32% 1,556 Greenup 50% 7,804 50% 7,874 Hancock 48% 1,834 52% 2,010 Hardin 57% 19,916 43% 14,910 Harlan 31% 3,340 69% 7,265 Harrison 50% 3,738 50% 3,702 Hart 56% 3,518 44% 2,785 Henderson 47% 8,419 53% 9,490 Henry 52% 3,266 48% 3,024 Hickman 49% 1,093 51% 1,159 Hopkins 56% 10,161 44% 7,930 Jackson 78% 3,755 22% 1,070 Jefferson 40% 134,699 60% 198,541 Jessamine 56% 10,002 44% 7,730 Johnson 59% 5,242 41% 3,711 Kenton 65% 42,158 35% 22,759 Knott 19% 1,345 81% 5,811 Knox 59% 6,685 41% 4,591 LaRue 60% 3,429 40% 2,241 Laurel 67% 14,427 33% 7,014 Lawrence 54% 3,322 46% 2,790 Lee 59% 1,606 41% 1,126 Leslie 51% 2,438 49% 2,339 Letcher 32% 2,751 68% 5,884 Lewis 70% 3,562 30% 1,509 Lincoln 57% 4,870 43% 3,695 Livingston 45% 2,025 55% 2,520 Logan 59% 5,847 41% 4,099 Lyon 45% 1,680 55% 2,082 Madison 50% 14,743 50% 14,790 Magoffin 43% 2,100 57% 2,816 Marion 41% 2,881 59% 4,112 Marshall 48% 7,191 52% 7,937 Martin 65% 2,744 35% 1,497 Mason 59% 3,884 41% 2,748 McCracken 52% 14,934 48% 13,940 McCreary 71% 3,603 29% 1,501 McLean 49% 2,078 51% 2,179 Meade 53% 5,574 47% 5,000 Menifee 39% 946 61% 1,484 Mercer 53% 5,019 47% 4,534 Metcalfe 58% 2,260 42% 1,608 Monroe 77% 3,940 23% 1,156 Montgomery 43% 4,130 57% 5,558 Morgan 39% 1,800 61% 2,758 Muhlenberg 44% 5,604 56% 7,178 Nelson 48% 7,754 52% 8,300 Nicholas 43% 1,236 57% 1,638 Ohio 56% 5,371 44% 4,202 Oldham 59% 15,751 41% 10,731 Owen 58% 2,637 42% 1,909 Owsley 63% 1,142 37% 660 Pendleton 65% 3,824 35% 2,042 Perry 23% 2,620 77% 8,659 Pike 39% 9,672 61% 15,293 Powell 41% 1,961 59% 2,806 Pulaski 67% 16,053 33% 7,848 Robertson 54% 559 46% 468 Rockcastle 69% 3,956 31% 1,812 Rowan 40% 3,388 60% 5,032 Russell 69% 5,092 31% 2,242 Scott 49% 8,126 51% 8,364 Shelby 54% 8,544 46% 7,269 Simpson 56% 3,665 44% 2,938 Spencer 57% 3,799 43% 2,821 Taylor 63% 6,119 37% 3,643 Todd 63% 2,696 37% 1,550 Trigg 58% 3,354 42% 2,457 Trimble 50% 1,865 50% 1,852 Union 49% 2,791 51% 2,880 Warren 56% 21,258 44% 16,457 Washington 56% 2,761 44% 2,146 Wayne 60% 4,214 40% 2,783 Webster 48% 2,490 52% 2,738 Whitley 64% 8,082 36% 4,620 Wolfe 33% 911 67% 1,856 Woodford 44% 4,887 56% 6,196 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Bell (largest city: Middlesboro) Trimble (largest city: Bedford) Logan (largest city: Russellville) Hopkins (largest city: Madisonville) Meade (largest city: Brandenburg) Trigg (largest city: Cadiz) Henry (largest city: Eminence) Lawrence (largest city: Louisa) Harrison (largest city: Cynthiana) Simpson (largest city: Franklin) McCracken (largest city: Paducah) Lincoln (largest city: Stanford) Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet) Daviess (largest city: Owensboro) Green (largest city: Greensburg) Calloway (largest city: Murray) Estill (largest city: Irvine) Fleming (largest city: Flemingsburg) LaRue (largest city: Hodgenville) Mercer (largest city: Harrodsburg) Metcalfe (largest city: Edmonton) Owen (largest city: Owenton) Spencer (largest city: Taylorsville) Todd (largest city: Elkton) Boyle (largest city: Daville) Washington (largest city: Springfield) See also 2004 United States Senate elections Notes Partisan clients References 30em External links Official campaign websites (archived) Daniel Mongiardo Category:2004 Kentucky elections Kentucky 2004