2010 RF12

Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid February 2018 yes 2010 RF 12 #FFC2E0 Mount Lemmon Srvy. Mount Lemmon Obs. 5 September 2010 2010 RF 12 NEOApollo 2025-Nov-21 (JD 2461000.5) 0 (MPC) 2 (JPL) 11.98 years 1.261 AU 0.86158 AU 2026-Mar-05 1.0615 AU 0.18831 1.094 yr (399.445 d) 266.1° 0.9013 ms / day 0.88267° 163.69° 267.44° 0.00060 AU e3km LD unit on 7 m6–12 meters (CNEOS) 28.42 2010 RF 12 is a very small asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79000 km mi above Antarctica. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX 30. Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction. 2010 RF 12 was rediscovered in August 2022, and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces, there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095. +Nominal Earth Approach on 6 September 2095 with a 12-year observation arc Date Impactprobability JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU) uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20 1:10 0.00035 AU e3km unit on ±180 thousand km In 2023, 2010 RF 12 was identified as a possible dark comet. 4 2 subscription Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids 10.3847/PSJ/acb697 free https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/PSJ/acb697 2023-02-15 The Planetary Science Journal 2025-07-13 en Darryl Z. Seligman 10150/674306 free Dark comets are asteroids that exhibit comet-like acceleration, but visually appear as asteroids, with no coma or tail. Dark Comets https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mysterious-dark-comets-could-unlock-solar-system-secrets/ May 2025 2025-05-01 Scientific American 2025-11-28 en 58–63 Astronomers who study them believe the acceleration is caused by outgassing on the sunlit side. Description NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 m ft off us in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes. 2010 RF 12 will make many more close approaches to Earth. Around 6 September 2095 it will pass 52000 180000 km from Earth. An asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacting Earth would cause very little danger of harm, but a rather impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release) as the rock airbursts in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy). The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach. +Virtual impactors with a 12-year observation arc Date Impactprobability(1 in) JPL Horizonsnominal geocentricdistance (AU) NEODySnominal geocentricdistance (AU) MPCnominal geocentricdistance (AU) Find_Orbnominal geocentricdistance (AU) uncertaintyregion(3-sigma)2095-09-05 23:46 10 0.00035 AU e3km unit on 0.0008 AU e3km unit 0.00066 AU e3km unit 130000 km AU unit flip ±180 thousand km2096-09-04 21:50 22000 0.84 AU e6km unit 0.18 AU e6km unit 0.36 AU e6km unit 0.19 AU e6km unit ±414 million km On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed 463000 30000 km from Earth. See also 2010 RX 30, a similar-sized asteroid that passed Earth the same day 2000 SG 344, another near-Earth asteroid (may be Saturn V stage IV rocket booster) 2006 JY 26 Asteroid impact prediction List of asteroid close approaches to Earth, for other close approaches Earth-grazing fireball Meteoroid Dark comet Notes "note" References MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12 IAU Minor Planet Center 2010-09-05 http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K10/K10R41.html 2014-04-17 (K10R12F) MPEC 2022-S77 : 2010 RF12 IAU Minor Planet Center 2022-09-19 https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K22/K22S77.html 2022-09-19 JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12) 2022-08-24 last obs. Jet Propulsion Laboratory https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC https://archive.today/20221223224337/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html%23/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC 2022-12-23 live 2022-12-23 2010 RF12 Minor Planet Center$ 8 September 2010 https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2010+RF12 21 January 2020 Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today National Geographic 8 September 2010 http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space/ https://web.archive.org/web/20100911072645/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space dead 11 September 2010 21 January 2020 Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids Boston Globe Media Partners 8 September 2010 http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html https://web.archive.org/web/20100909142420/http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html 9 September 2010 21 January 2020 Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12 NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2010%20RF12 https://web.archive.org/web/20170122151206/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2010rf12.html#?des=2010%20RF12 22 January 2017 live 2022-12-23 Sentry Risk Table NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/ https://web.archive.org/web/20100911052418/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ 11 September 2010 live 2022-12-23 Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time JPL Horizons https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 https://web.archive.org/web/20221223231926/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 2022-12-23 live 2022-06-12 RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 177649 for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.) Horizons Batch for 2095-09-06 00:06 Earth Approach JPL Horizons https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 https://web.archive.org/web/20221223232436/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 2022-12-23 live 2022-12-23 RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 180405 for 2095-Sep-06 00:06.) Horizons Batch for 2096-09-04 21:50 Virtual Impactor Time JPL Horizons https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04%2021:50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 https://web.archive.org/web/20220707092915/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04+21%3A50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272+days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27 2022-07-07 live 2022-07-07 Find_Orb for 2095-09-06 Project Pluto https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 https://web.archive.org/web/20220706182711/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 2022-07-06 live 2022-07-06 Find_Orb for 2096-09-05 Project Pluto https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 https://archive.today/20221223230808/https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1 2022-12-23 live 2022-12-23 2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095 NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site) https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours https://web.archive.org/web/20220706185615/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours 2022-07-06 live 21 January 2020 (NEODyS Close Approach Table)) 2010RF12 Ephemerides for 4−5 September 2096 NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site) https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours https://archive.today/20221223092947/https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours 2022-12-23 live 23 December 2022 Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense https://web.archive.org/web/20220102014840/https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense/ 2 January 2022 live 2022-01-19 External links Risk corridor over Southern Hemisphere 2010 RF12: A second asteroid will buzz the Earth today, csmonitor.com, September 8, 2010 Early warning for close approaches of two house-sized asteroids, The Planetary Society, September 8, 2010 2010RF12 2010RF12 Astronomy Stars Spaceflight Outer space Solar System # Category:Minor planet object articles (unnumbered) Category:Potential impact events caused by near-Earth objects 20100908 20100905