2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2012 U.S. House elections May 2022 2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2010 2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2014 The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 6, 2012, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2012 presidential election and the 2012 Senate elections, were also held on this date. Election ratings Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election. Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain District CPVIIncumbent Previousresult CookNovember 5, 20122012 House Race Ratings for November 5, 2012 http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings/5105 cookpolitical.com Cook Political Report 5 December 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20141028053940/http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings/5105 28 October 2014 5 November 2012 RothenbergNovember 2, 2012House Ratings http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house rothenbergpoliticalreport.com Rothenberg Political Report 6 December 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20121111195527/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house 11 November 2012 2 November 2012 SabatoNovember 5, 2012Larry J. Sabato Kyle Kondik Geoffrey Skelley Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/ centerforpolitics.org University of Virginia 4 December 2023 5 November 2012 RCPNovember 4, 2012, 2012 11 04 us on Roll CallNovember 4, 2012Race Ratings Chart for 2012 House Elections https://rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html rollcall.com Roll Call 5 December 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20121109073755/https://rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html 9 November 2012 NYTNovember 4, 2012House Race Ratings, The New York Times, 2012 11 04 us on The HillNovember 4, 2012House Ratings https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/race-ratings/107735-the-hills-house-ratings-democrats-chances-for-seats-have-dimmed/ The Hill November 4, 2012 November 3, 2012 Winner AZ 1 X R 3 Paul Gosar (R) (switching seats)"Gosar" Contested the new 4th and won. 49.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Ann Kirkpatrick (D) AZ 2 X R 2 Ron Barber (D) 52.3% D Lean D Tilt D Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Ron Barber (D) AZ 9 X R 1 David Schweikert (R) (switching seats)"Schweikert" Contested the 6th and won. 52.0% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Kyrsten Sinema (D) AR 1 X R 7 Rick Crawford (R) 51.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Rick Crawford (R) AR 4 X R 9 Mike Ross (D) (retiring) 57.5% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Tom Cotton (R) CA 3 X D 1 John Garamendi (D) 58.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D John Garamendi (D) CA 7 X R 3 Dan Lungren (R) 50.1% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Ami Bera (D) CA 9 X D 2 Jerry McNerney (D) 48.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Jerry McNerney (D) CA 10 X R 5 Jeff Denham (R) 64.6% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Jeff Denham (R) CA 16 X D 2 Jim Costa (D) 51.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Jim Costa (D) CA 21 X R 3 (New seat) Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Lean R David Valadao (R) CA 24 X D 3 Lois Capps (D) 57.8% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lois Capps (D) CA 26 X D 2 Elton Gallegly (R) (retiring) 59.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Julia Brownley (D) CA 36 X R 3 Mary Bono (R) 51.4% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Raul Ruiz (D) CA 41 X D 3 (New seat) Lean D flip Lean D flip Lean D flip Lean D flip Lean D flip Tossup Lean D flip Mark Takano (D) CA 47 X D 5 (New seat) Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Alan Lowenthal (D) CA 52 X R 1 Brian Bilbray (R) 56.6% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Scott Peters (D) CO 3 X R 4 Scott Tipton (R) 50.1% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Scott Tipton (R) CO 6 X R 1 Mike Coffman (R) 65.7% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Mike Coffman (R) CO 7 X D 3 Ed Perlmutter (D) 53.4% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Safe D Ed Perlmutter (D) CT 4 X D 5 Jim Himes (D) 53.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Jim Himes (D) CT 5 X D 2 Chris Murphy (D) (retiring)"Senate" Retired to run for senate 54.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Elizabeth Esty (D) FL 2 X R 3 Steve Southerland (R) 53.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Steve Southerland (R) FL 9 X D 4 (New seat) Likely D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Likely D flip Safe D flip Lean D flip Likely D flip Alan Grayson (D) FL 10 X R 3 Daniel Webster (R) 56.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Daniel Webster (R) FL 13 X R 1 Bill Young (R) 65.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Lean R Bill Young (R) FL 16 X R 5 Vern Buchanan (R) 68.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Vern Buchanan (R) FL 18 X R 1 Tom Rooney (R) (switching seats)"Rooney" Contested the new 17th and won. Allen West (R) ran in this seat and lost. 66.9% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Patrick Murphy (D) FL 24 X D 5 Allen West (R) (switching seats)"West" Contested the 18th and lost. 54.4% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lois Frankel (D) FL 26 X R 3 David Rivera (R) 52.2% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Likely D Flip Joe Garcia (D) GA 12 X R 9 John Barrow (D) 56.6% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup John Barrow (D) IL 8 X D 6 Peter Roskam (R) (switching seats)"Roskam" Contested the new 6th and won. Joe Walsh (R) ran in this seat and lost. 63.7% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Likely D Flip Tammy Duckworth (D) IL 10 X D 8 Bob Dold (R) 51.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Brad Schneider (D) IL 11 X D 6 Judy Biggert (R) 63.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Bill Foster (D) IL 12 X D 2 Jerry Costello (D) 59.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup William Enyart (D) IL 13 X D 1 (New seat)"Johnson" Tim Johnson (R) ran in this seat but retired after the primaries. Tossup Tossup Lean D flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Rodney Davis (R) IL 17 X D 6 Bobby Schilling (R) 52.6% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Cheri Bustos (D) IN 2 X R 7 Joe Donnelly (D) (retiring)"Senate" 48.2% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe D Lean R Flip Jackie Walorski (R) IN 8 X R 8 Larry Bucshon (R) 57.6% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Lean R Larry Bucshon (R) IA 1 X D 5 Bruce Braley (D) 49.5% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Bruce Braley (D) IA 2 X D 4 Dave Loebsack (D) 55.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Dave Loebsack (D) IA 3 X R 1 Leonard Boswell (D)"Latham" Fellow incumbent Tom Latham (R) moved from the 4th to run in this seat. 48.2% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tom Latham (R) IA 4 X R 4 Tom Latham (R) (switching seats)"King" Latham moved to the 3rd to run there. Steve King moved from the old 5th to run in this seat. 65.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Steve King (R) KY 6 X R 7 Ben Chandler (D) 50.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Andy Barr (R) ME 2 X D 3 Mike Michaud (D) 55.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Likely D Mike Michaud (D) MD 6 X D 2 Roscoe Bartlett (R) 61.5% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip John Delaney (D) MA 6 X D 7 John F. Tierney (D) 56.9% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip John F. Tierney (D) MI 1 X R 4 Dan Benishek (R) 51.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Dan Benishek (R) MI 3 X R 5 Justin Amash (R) 59.7% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Justin Amash (R) MI 6 X R 1 Fred Upton (R) 62.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Fred Upton (R) MI 7 X R 3 Tim Walberg (R) 50.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Tim Walberg (R) MI 11 X R 4 (Vacant)"McCotter" Thad McCotter resigned in July 2012, David Curson (D) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of McCotter's term. 59.3% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Lean R Likely R Kerry Bentivolio (R) MN 2 X R 2 John Kline (R) 63.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R John Kline (R) MN 6 X R 8 Michele Bachmann (R) 52.5% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Michele Bachmann (R) MN 7 X R 5 Collin Peterson (D) 60.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Collin Peterson (D) MN 8 X D 3 Chip Cravaack (R) 48.2% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Rick Nolan (D) MT AL X R 7 Denny Rehberg (R) (retiring)"Senate" 60.3% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Steve Daines (R) NE 2 X R 6 Lee Terry (R) 60.8% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R Likely R Lee Terry (R) NV 3 X Even Joe Heck (R) 48.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Joe Heck (R) NV 4 X D 2 (New seat) Tossup Tossup Lean D flip Tossup Tossup Lean D flip Tossup Steven Horsford (D) NH 1 X Even Frank Guinta (R) 54.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Carol Shea-Porter (D) NH 2 X D 3 Charles Bass (R) 48.3% R Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Annie Kuster (D) NJ 3 X R 3 Jon Runyan (R) 50.0% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Jon Runyan (R) NJ 5 X R 4 Scott Garrett (R) 65.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Scott Garrett (R) NJ 7 X R 6 Leonard Lance (R) 65.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Leonard Lance (R) NJ 9 X D 11 Bill Pascrell (D) 62.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Bill Pascrell (D) NM 1 X D 5 Martin Heinrich (D) (retiring)"Senate" 51.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Martin Heinrich (D) NY 1 X Even Tim Bishop (D) 50.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tim Bishop (D) NY 11 X R 6 Michael Grimm (R) 51.3% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup Likely R Michael Grimm (R) NY 18 X R 2 Nan Hayworth (R) 52.7% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Sean Patrick Maloney (D) NY 19 X Even Chris Gibson (R) 54.9% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Chris Gibson (R) NY 21 X R 2 Bill Owens (D) 47.5% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Bill Owens (D) NY 22 X R 3 Richard Hanna (R) 53.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Likely R Richard Hanna (R) NY 23 X R 3 Tom Reed (R) 52.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Tom Reed (R) NY 24 X D 3 Ann Marie Buerkle (R) 50.2% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Dan Maffei (D) NY 25 X D 5 Louise Slaughter (D) 64.9% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Louise Slaughter (D) NY 27 X R 7 Kathy Hochul (D) 47.2% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Chris Collins (R) NC 7 X R 11 Mike McIntyre (D) 53.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Mike McIntyre (D) NC 8 X R 12 Larry Kissell (D) 53.0% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Tossup Likely R Flip Richard Hudson (R) NC 11 X R 12 Heath Shuler (D) (retiring) 54.3% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Mark Meadows (R) NC 13 X R 9 Brad Miller (D) (retiring) 55.5% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip George Holding (R) ND AL X R 10 Rick Berg (R) (retiring)"Senate" 54.7% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Kevin Cramer (R) OH 6 X R 5 Bill Johnson (R) 50.2% R Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Bill Johnson (R) OH 7 X R 5 Bob Gibbs (R) 53.9% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Bob Gibbs (R) OH 9 X D 15 Marcy Kaptur (D) 59.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Marcy Kaptur (D) OH 16 X R 5 Jim Renacci (R)"Renacci" Fellow incumbent Betty Sutton (D) moved from the 18th to run in this seat. 52.1% R Lean R Tilt R Lean D Flip Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Jim Renacci (R) OK 2 X R 14 Dan Boren (D) (retiring) 56.5% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Lean R Flip Markwayne Mullin (R) OR 5 X Even Kurt Schrader (D) 51.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Likely D Kurt Schrader (D) PA 6 X R 1 Jim Gerlach (R) 53.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Jim Gerlach (R) PA 7 X Even Pat Meehan (R) 54.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Likely R Pat Meehan (R) PA 8 X D 1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 53.5% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Lean R Mike Fitzpatrick (R) PA 11 X R 6 Lou Barletta (R) 54.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Lou Barletta (R) PA 12 X R 6 Jason Altmire (D) (lost renomination)"Critz" Fellow incumbent Mark Critz (D) moved from the 12th to run in this seat, but lost. 50.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Keith Rothfus (R) PA 15 X R 2 Charlie Dent (R) 53.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Charlie Dent (R) PA 18 X R 6 Tim Murphy (R) 67.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Tim Murphy (R) RI 1 X D 14 David Cicilline (D) 50.6% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup David Cicilline (D) SD AL X R 9 Kristi Noem (R) 48.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Kristi Noem (R) TN 4 X R 13 Scott DesJarlais (R) 57.1% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Scott DesJarlais (R) TX 10 X R 11 Michael McCaul (R) 64.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Michael McCaul (R) TX 14 X R 8 Ron Paul (R) (retiring) 76.0% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Randy Weber (R) TX 23 X R 5 Quico Canseco (R) 49.4% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Pete Gallego (D) TX 34 X D 3 (New seat) Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Likely D flip Filemon Vela Jr. (D) UT 4 X R 14 (New seat)"Matheson" Jim Matheson (D) moved from the 2nd district to run in this new seat. Lean R flip Tilt R flip Lean R flip Tossup Lean R flip Tossup Tossup Jim Matheson (D) VA 2 X R 5 Scott Rigell (R) 53.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Scott Rigell (R) VA 5 X R 5 Robert Hurt (R) 50.8% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Robert Hurt (R) WA 1 X D 3 (Vacant)"Inslee" Jay Inslee resigned in March 2012, Suzan DelBene (D) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of Inslee's term. 57.7% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Suzan DelBene (D) WA 3 X R 2 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 53.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) WA 10 X D 4 (New seat) Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Safe D flip Lean D flip Likely D flip Denny Heck (D) WV 3 X R 6 Nick Rahall (D) 56.0% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Nick Rahall (D) WI 7 X Even Sean Duffy (R) 52.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Sean Duffy (R) WI 8 X R 2 Reid Ribble (R) 55.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Reid Ribble (R) Overall | | R - 217D - 174 44 tossups | | R - 233D - 185 18 tossups | | R - 239D - 196 | | R - 224D - 178 33 tossups | | R - 227D -175 33 tossups | |R - 227D - 183 25 tossups | | Republican retain 35 tossups | | R - 234D - 201 Notes References * House