1998 Australian federal election

none February 2018 September 2022 1998 Australian federal election Australia parliamentary no Primary #Opinion polling Results of the 1996 Australian federal election (House of Representatives) 1996 Results of the 2001 Australian federal election (House of Representatives) 2001 Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 1996–1998 Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 1998–2001 12,154,050 3.52% 11,545,201 (94.99%)(0.78 pp) All 148 seats in the House of Representatives75 seats were needed for a majority 40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate 1998 10 3 yThe election in the seat of Newcastle was deferred to 21 November 1998. 200x200px File:John howard.jpg John Howard 1995 1 30 y Liberal Party of Australia Liberal–National Coalition Bennelong (NSW) 94 seats 94 80 14 4,388,809 39.51% 7.73% Kim Beazley crop.jpg Kim Beazley yes 1996 3 19 Australian Labor Party Brand (WA) 49 seats 49 67 18 4,454,306 40.10% 1.34% Prime Minister John Howard Liberal/National coalition Subsequent Prime Minister John Howard Liberal/National coalition | map_image = 350px | map_size = | map_caption = Results by division for the House of Representatives, shaded by winning party's margin of victory. TPP 49.02% 50.98% TPP swing 4.61 4.61 A federal election was held on 3 October 1998 to elect members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76 seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, despite losing the nationwide popular and two-party preferred vote. However, the Australian Labor Party gained seats compared to the previous election. Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, future Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan and future Speaker Anna Burke. Background The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate. Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937. thumb|300px|The Gallagher Index result was 11.33. The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts. This election was not the first to be centred on a GST; the 1993 election saw the Keating Labor government re-elected after a proposal by then Opposition leader John Hewson to introduce a 15% GST.http://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article249045414 What are the main issues? The Riverine Herald 29,177 Victoria, Australia 23 September 1998 28 August 2024 2 Trove During the election the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) lobbied for the Coalition to put One Nation last in preferences. In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences.1996 APH Newman G Kopras A 4 November 1996 Federal Elections 1996 https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/OU730/upload_binary/OU730.pdf 2022-01-10 Background Paper 6 1996-97 Parliamentary Research Service 1037-2938 The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris. The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote.http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=1 Newspoll archive since 1987 Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au 2016-07-30 https://web.archive.org/web/20160303135154/http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=1 3 March 2016 dead On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming prime minister. The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-04/how-many-seats-did-john-howard-lose-at-the-1998-gst-election/9388732 4 October 2021 How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election? ABC News Australia Antony Green 4 February 2016 The election for the division of Newcastle was deferred as the Democrats candidate died on 1 October, two days before the federal election. A supplementary election was held on 21 November, with Labor holding the seat.http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1998/1998repsnsw.txt 1998 House of Representatives: NSW Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive 2022-06-11https://www.aec.gov.au/elections/supplementary_by_elections/1998/newcastle.htm Newcastle 1998 supplementary election Australian Electoral Commission 19 January 2011 17 January 2023 Results House of Representatives results right|thumb|250px|Government (80) Coalition Liberal darkgray Liberal (64) National darkgray National (16) Opposition (67) Labor darkgray Labor (67) Crossbench (1) Independent darkgray Independent (1) Results of the 1998 Australian federal election (House of Representatives) Australia yes Popular vote var(--background-color-interactive) 600px 410px Labor Australian Labor Party 40.10 Liberal Liberal Party of Australia 33.89 One Nation One Nation (Australia) 8.43 National National Party of Australia 5.29 Democrats #F4940D 5.13 Greens #10C25B 2.14 CLP #ff9933 0.32 Independents Independent (politician) 1.76 Other #777777 2.94 Two-party-preferred vote var(--background-color-interactive) 600px 410px Labor Australian Labor Party 50.98 Coalition Coalition (Australia) 49.02 Parliament seats var(--background-color-interactive) 600px 410px Coalition Coalition (Australia) 54.05 Labor Australian Labor Party 45.27 Independents Independent (politician) 0.68 Senate results right|thumb|250px|Government (35) Coalition Liberal darkgray Liberal (31) National darkgray National (3) Country Liberal Party darkgray CLP (1) Opposition (29) Labor darkgray Labor (29) Crossbench (12) Democrats darkgray Democrats (9) Greens darkgray Greens (1) One Nation darkgray One Nation (1) Independent darkgray Independent (1) Results of the 1998 Australian federal election (Senate) Australia yes House of Representatives preference flows The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three-cornered-contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party. One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%) The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%) The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%) Seats changing hands Post-election pendulum for the 1998 Australian federal election Seat Pre-1998 Swing Post-1998 Party Member Margin Margin Member Party Bass, Tas  Liberal Warwick Smith 4.57 4.63 0.06 Michelle O'Byrne Labor  Bendigo, Vic  Liberal Bruce Reid 0.88 4.35 3.47 Steve Gibbons Labor  Bowman, Qld  Liberal Andrea West 0.89 4.18 3.29 Con Sciacca Labor  Braddon, Tas  Liberal Chris Miles 5.69 10.02 4.33 Sid Sidebottom Labor  Canning, WA  Liberal Ricky Johnston 1.64 5.16 3.52 Jane Gerick Labor  Capricornia, Qld  National Paul Marek 3.46 8.75 5.29 Kirsten Livermore Labor  Chisholm, Vic  Liberal Michael Wooldridge 2.60 4.67 2.07 Anna Burke Labor  Cowan, WA  Liberal Richard Evans 4.06 7.62 3.56 Graham Edwards Labor  Curtin, WA  Independent Allan Rocher 7.28 N/ASplitter Allan Rocher, Graeme Campbell and Paul Filing were not in the final two candidates for their seats; the second figures are against Labor. 13.28 Julie Bishop Liberal  Dickson, Qld  Liberal Tony SmithTony Smith contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Labor. 3.90 4.02 0.12 Cheryl Kernot Labor  Griffith, Qld  Liberal Graeme McDougall 1.50 3.93 2.43 Kevin Rudd Labor  Hume, NSW  National John Sharp 4.35 3.71 8.06 Alby Schultz Liberal  Kalgoorlie, WA  Independent Graeme Campbell 10.35 N/ASplitter 2.10 Barry Haase Liberal  Kingston, SA  Liberal Susan Jeanes 2.01 2.48 0.47 David Cox Labor  Lilley, Qld  Liberal Elizabeth Grace 0.80 3.93 3.13 Wayne Swan Labor  Lowe, NSW  Liberal Paul ZammitPaul Zammit contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Liberal. 2.46 7.09 4.63 John Murphy Labor  McMillan, Vic  Liberal Russell Broadbent 2.07 2.64 0.57 Christian Zahra Labor  Moore, WA  Independent Paul Filing 13.28 N/ASplitter 4.13 Mal Washer Liberal  Northern Territory, NT  Country Liberal Nick Dondas 0.37 0.94 0.57 Warren Snowdon Labor  Paterson, NSW  Liberal Bob Baldwin 0.43 1.65 1.22 Bob Horne Labor  Stirling, WA  Liberal Eoin Cameron 3.22 4.26 1.04 Jann McFarlane Labor  Swan, WA  Liberal Don Randall 3.63 6.33 2.70 Kim Wilkie Labor  The Labor Party retained the seat of Oxley (Qld) which became Labor-held in the redistribution. Opinion polling In the lead-up to the election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls for various news organisations.1998 Federal Election – Week 5 https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/27/vcepolitics-1998-week-5.html/ AustralianPolitics.com 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20250418203736/https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/27/vcepolitics-1998-week-5.html/ 18 April 2025 27 September 1998 These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred lead.Lewis Chris Did the Howard Government Undermine Australian Democracy? https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/server/api/core/bitstreams/0003e97d-6ef0-453d-861a-c698d9bd3781/content Australian National University 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20251220091922/https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/server/api/core/bitstreams/0003e97d-6ef0-453d-861a-c698d9bd3781/content 20 December 2025 10 November 2009Federal Newspoll Records Page https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/06/federal-newspoll-records-page.html Dr Kevin Bonham 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20250714134822/https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/06/federal-newspoll-records-page.html 14 July 2025 18 June 2018 Voting intention House of Representatives Date Firm Samplesize Primary voteTPP vote white Liberal–National Coalition L/NP white Australian Labor Party ALP black Australian Democrats DEM white Australian Greens GRN white Pauline Hanson's One Nation ONP OTH Others white Liberal–National Coalition L/NP white Australian Labor Party ALP 3 Oct 1998 1998 federal election 39.5% 40.1% 5.1% 2.6% 8.4% 4.2% 49.0% 51.0% 2 Oct 1998 NewspollDodson Louise Newspoll surge tips Beazley for Lodge https://www.afr.com/politics/newspoll-surge-tips-beazley-for-lodge-19981003-k8egc Australian Financial Review 20 December 2025 https://archive.today/20251220074033/https://www.afr.com/politics/newspoll-surge-tips-beazley-for-lodge-19981003-k8egc 20 December 2025 3 October 1998 40% 44% 47% 53% 1 Oct 1998 Nielsen 42% 40% 5% 2% 8% 50% 50% 1 Oct 1998 Morgan 44.5% 44.5% 29 Sep 1998 Newspoll 43% 42% 7% 8% 49% 51% 22 – 23 Sep 1998 Nielsen1998 Federal Election – Week 4 https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/20/vcepolitics-1998-week-4.html/ AustralianPolitics.com 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20250427202102/https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/20/vcepolitics-1998-week-4.html/ 27 April 2025 20 September 1998 41% 43% 5% 7% 3% 48% 52% 22 Sep 1998 Newspoll 42% 43% 6% 9% 48% 52% 22 Sep 1998 ARSMurphy Katharine Field Nina Poll result will go down to the wire, says Reith https://www.afr.com/politics/poll-result-will-go-down-to-the-wire-says-reith-19980922-k8bb9 Australian Financial Review 20 December 2025 https://archive.today/20251220080434/https://www.afr.com/politics/poll-result-will-go-down-to-the-wire-says-reith-19980922-k8bb9 20 December 2025 22 September 1998 41% 36% 18 Sep 1998 Nielsen 42% 43% 3% 8% 15 Sep 1998 ARSMurphy Katharine Undercurrents vary as polls give conflicting results https://www.afr.com/politics/undercurrents-vary-as-polls-give-conflicting-results-19980915-k8bmo Australian Financial Review 20 December 2025 https://archive.today/20251220081758/https://www.afr.com/politics/undercurrents-vary-as-polls-give-conflicting-results-19980915-k8bmo 20 December 2025 15 September 1998 550 44% 34% 12% 6% 47% 42% 15 Sep 1998 Newspoll1998 Federal Election – Week 3 https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/13/vcepolitics-1998-week-3.html/ AustralianPolitics.com 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20250908191644/https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/13/vcepolitics-1998-week-3.html/ 8 September 2025 13 September 1998 42% 44% 47% 53% 8 Sep 1998 Newspoll1998 Federal Election – Week 2 https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/06/vcepolitics-1998-week2.html/ AustralianPolitics.com 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20170707064631/https://australianpolitics.com/1998/09/06/vcepolitics-1998-week2.html/ 7 July 2017 6 September 1998 41.5% 41.5% 7.5% 9.5% 48.5% 51.5% 2 Sep 1998 Newspoll1998 Federal Election – Week 1 https://australianpolitics.com/1998/08/30/vcepolitics-1998-week1.html/ AustralianPolitics.com 20 December 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20160802012958/https://australianpolitics.com/1998/08/30/vcepolitics-1998-week1.html/ 2 August 2016 30 August 1998 40% 40% 10% 10% 2 Mar 1996 1996 federal election 47.3% 38.8% 6.8% 2.9% — 4.3% 53.6% 46.4% Senate Date Firm Samplesize Primary vote white Liberal–National Coalition L/NP white Australian Labor Party ALP black Australian Democrats DEM white Australian Greens GRN white Pauline Hanson's One Nation ONP OTH Others 3 Oct 1998 1998 federal election 37.7% 37.3% 8.5% 2.7% 9.0% 4.7% 29 Sep 1998 Nielsen 15% 18 Sep 1998 Nielsen 9% 8% 1 Sep 1998 Nielsen 8.8% 2 Mar 1996 1996 federal election 44.0% 36.2% 10.8% 3.2% — 5.9% Individual seat polling Blair Date Firm Samplesize Primary voteTCP vote white Pauline Hanson's One Nation ONP white Australian Labor Party ALP white Liberal Party of Australia LIB white National Party of Australia NAT black Australian Democrats DEM white Australian Greens GRN OTH Others white Liberal Party of Australia LIB white Pauline Hanson's One Nation ONP 3 Oct 1998 1998 federal election 36.0% 25.3% 21.3% 10.3% 3.6% 1.8% 1.4% 53.4% 46.6% 12 Sep 1998 Unnamed 35% 28% 19% 11% 7 Sep 1998 Unnamed 31% 21% 19% 14% 1998 Creation of the Division of Blair announced Brand Date Firm Samplesize Primary voteTPP vote white Australian Labor Party ALP white Liberal Party of Australia LIB white Australian Greens GRN black Australian Democrats DEM white Pauline Hanson's One Nation ONP OTH Others white Australian Labor Party ALP white Liberal Party of Australia LIB 3 Oct 1998 1998 federal election 52.0% 27.7% 2.9% 2.3% 11.9% 3.2% 62.3% 37.7% 5 Sep 1998 Nielson 53% 2 Mar 1996 1996 federal election 43.9% 42.6% 4.2% 3.5% — 5.9% 50.2% 49.8% See also Candidates of the 1998 Australian federal election Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 1998–2001 Members of the Australian Senate, 1999–2002 Notes Hanson Pauline Hanson has been counted as an independent for the 1996 election. She had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper. References External links Election 98, campaign and results coverage by the ABC Australian Electoral Commission Results University of WA https://web.archive.org/web/20150118085343/http://elections.uwa.edu.au/ 18 January 2015 election results in Australia since 1890 AEC 2PP vote AustralianPolitics.com election details Preference flows – ABC Federal Federal election Category:Federal elections in Australia Category:Pauline Hanson