2004 United States presidential election in Michigan

none June 2025 September 2023 2004 United States presidential election 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan Michigan presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in Michigan 2000 2008 United States presidential election in Michigan 2008 64.7% http://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8722-29616--,00.html SOS - General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics 2018-12-06 2018-12-06 https://web.archive.org/web/20181206235134/https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8722-29616--,00.html live November 2, 2004 x200px John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 17 2,479,183 51.23% George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 0 2,313,746 47.81% 375px County results 375px Congressional district results 375px Municipality results Kerry #B9D7FF 40–50% #86B6F2 50–60% #4389E3 60–70% #1666CB 70–80% #0645B4 80–90% #002B84 90–100% Bush #F2B3BE 40–50% #E27F90 50–60% #CC2F4A 60–70% #D40000 70–80% #AA0000 80–90% Tie #D4C4DC 40–50% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Michigan was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading more than half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other less than half still considered it a swing state. Although the State of Michigan voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 51.23% of the vote, but won only 15 of the 83 counties in Michigan. Most of these 15 counties have the highest populations in the state. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Wayne County with 69.39% of the vote. Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Michigan either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, the election also marked the first time since 1976 that Michigan voted against the winner of the national popular vote. Bush was the first Republican to win the national popular vote without Michigan since the 1968 presidential race. This also marked the first time since 1940 that an incumbent president won reelection without carrying Michigan. As of 2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the fourth and most recent time since 1948 (after 2000, 1976, and 1968) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Caucuses 2004 Michigan Democratic presidential caucuses Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Archived copy dcpoliticalreport.com 13 January 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW 21 November 2010 usurped +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportLean DCook Political ReportLean DResearch 2000Lean DZogby InternationalLikely DWashington PostTossupWashington DispatchLikely DWashington TimesLean DThe New York TimesLean DCNNLikely DNewsweekLean DAssociated PressTossupRasmussen ReportsTossup Polling Pre-election polling showed a close race early on, but in the fall election, Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last three polls' average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections https://web.archive.org/web/20081128081210/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26 2008-11-28 Fundraising Bush raised $4,960,010.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President 2009-09-08 2017-09-05 https://web.archive.org/web/20170905094612/https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 live Kerry raised $2,496,203.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President 2009-09-08 2017-09-05 https://web.archive.org/web/20170905101200/https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 live Advertising and visits In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys CNN 2022-05-27 2021-04-22 https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ live but Kerry spent slightly more each week.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/ America votes 2004: SHOWDOWN STATES: MICHIGAN CNN 2022-05-27 2021-06-12 https://web.archive.org/web/20210612130630/https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/ live Analysis Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While this was a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.Leip Dave September 17, 2020 Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2004&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0 September 17, 2020 October 26, 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20201026124603/https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2004&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0 live Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which has a more white-collar populace and had voted Republican in every election from 1940 through 1992 save 1964, and had voted to re-elect Bill Clinton in 1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip the more blue-collar Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from 1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin. Results 2004 United States presidential election in MichiganPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Kerry 2,479,183 51.23% 17 Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,313,746 47.81% 0 Independent Ralph Nader 24,035 0.50% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 10,552 0.22% 0 Green David Cobb 5,325 0.11% 0 US Taxpayers Michael Peroutka 4,980 0.10% 0 Natural Law Walt Brown 1,431 0.03% 0 Totals 4,839,252 100.00% 17 Voter turnout (voting age population) 64.2% By county County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Alcona 2,871 43.96% 3,592 55.00% 68 1.04% -721 -11.04% 6,531 Alger 2,395 50.26% 2,318 48.65% 52 1.09% 77 1.61% 4,765 Allegan 19,355 35.90% 34,022 63.11% 530 0.98% -14,667 -27.21% 53,907 Alpena 7,407 48.70% 7,665 50.39% 139 0.91% -258 -1.69% 15,211 Antrim 5,072 37.24% 8,379 61.52% 168 1.23% -3,307 -24.28% 13,619 Arenac 4,076 49.61% 4,071 49.55% 69 0.84% 5 0.06% 8,216 Baraga 1,660 45.06% 1,977 53.66% 47 1.28% -317 -8.60% 3,684 Barry 11,312 37.37% 18,638 61.57% 322 1.06% -7,326 -24.20% 30,272 Bay 31,049 54.42% 25,448 44.60% 562 0.98% 5,601 9.82% 57,059 Benzie 4,383 44.83% 5,284 54.04% 111 1.14% -901 -9.21% 9,778 Berrien 32,846 43.99% 41,076 55.01% 749 1.00% -8,230 -11.02% 74,671 Branch 7,004 38.98% 10,784 60.02% 179 1.00% -3,780 -21.04% 17,967 Calhoun 29,891 47.70% 32,093 51.21% 683 1.09% -2,202 -3.51% 62,667 Cass 9,537 42.02% 12,964 57.12% 196 0.86% -3,427 -15.10% 22,697 Charlevoix 5,729 40.52% 8,214 58.09% 196 1.39% -2,485 -17.57% 14,139 Cheboygan 5,941 42.78% 7,798 56.15% 148 1.07% -1,857 -13.37% 13,887 Chippewa 7,203 43.69% 9,122 55.33% 163 0.99% -1,919 -11.64% 16,488 Clare 6,984 49.09% 7,088 49.82% 154 1.08% -104 -0.73% 14,226 Clinton 15,483 40.95% 21,989 58.16% 335 0.89% -6,506 -17.21% 37,807 Crawford 3,126 43.21% 4,017 55.52% 92 1.27% -891 -12.31% 7,235 Delta 9,381 48.76% 9,680 50.32% 177 0.92% -299 -1.56% 19,238 Dickinson 5,650 41.70% 7,734 57.08% 165 1.22% -2,084 -15.38% 13,549 Eaton 25,411 45.58% 29,781 53.41% 563 1.01% -4,370 -7.83% 55,755 Emmet 6,846 39.41% 10,332 59.48% 194 1.12% -3,486 -20.07% 17,372 Genesee 128,334 60.03% 83,870 39.23% 1,571 0.73% 44,464 20.80% 213,775 Gladwin 6,343 47.95% 6,770 51.18% 114 0.86% -427 -3.23% 13,227 Gogebic 4,421 52.31% 3,935 46.56% 96 1.14% 486 5.75% 8,452 Grand Traverse 18,256 39.52% 27,446 59.42% 489 1.06% -9,190 -19.90% 46,191 Gratiot 7,377 42.45% 9,834 56.59% 168 0.97% -2,457 -14.14% 17,379 Hillsdale 7,123 35.23% 12,804 63.34% 289 1.43% -5,681 -28.11% 20,216 Houghton 6,731 42.46% 8,889 56.08% 231 1.46% -2,158 -13.62% 15,851 Huron 7,629 43.68% 9,671 55.37% 166 0.95% -2,042 -11.69% 17,466 Ingham 76,877 57.78% 54,734 41.14% 1,442 1.08% 22,143 16.64% 133,053 Ionia 10,647 38.55% 16,621 60.18% 350 1.27% -5,974 -21.63% 27,618 Iosco 6,557 46.82% 7,301 52.13% 148 1.06% -744 -5.31% 14,006 Iron 3,215 49.38% 3,224 49.52% 72 1.11% -9 -0.14% 6,511 Isabella 12,334 50.57% 11,754 48.19% 302 1.24% 580 2.38% 24,390 Jackson 31,025 43.21% 40,029 55.75% 741 1.03% -9,004 -12.54% 71,795 Kalamazoo 61,462 51.31% 57,147 47.71% 1,174 0.98% 4,315 3.60% 119,783 Kalkaska 3,189 38.05% 5,084 60.67% 107 1.28% -1,895 -22.62% 8,380 Kent 116,909 40.19% 171,201 58.85% 2,781 0.96% -54,292 -18.66% 290,891 Keweenaw 630 43.78% 781 54.27% 28 1.95% -151 -10.49% 1,439 Lake 2,675 50.99% 2,503 47.71% 68 1.30% 172 3.28% 5,246 Lapeer 18,086 40.97% 25,556 57.89% 505 1.14% -7,470 -16.92% 44,147 Leelanau 6,048 43.46% 7,733 55.57% 136 0.98% -1,685 -12.11% 13,917 Lenawee 20,787 44.22% 25,675 54.61% 550 1.17% -4,888 -10.39% 47,012 Livingston 33,991 36.26% 58,860 62.79% 891 0.95% -24,869 -26.53% 93,742 Luce 1,045 36.94% 1,749 61.82% 35 1.24% -704 -24.88% 2,829 Mackinac 2,819 42.72% 3,706 56.16% 74 1.12% -887 -13.44% 6,599 Macomb 196,160 48.75% 202,166 50.24% 4,084 1.01% -6,006 -1.49% 402,410 Manistee 6,272 49.23% 6,295 49.41% 173 1.36% -23 -0.18% 12,740 Marquette 17,412 53.60% 14,690 45.22% 386 1.19% 2,722 8.38% 32,488 Mason 6,333 43.34% 8,124 55.60% 154 1.05% -1,791 -12.26% 14,611 Mecosta 7,730 43.97% 9,710 55.23% 141 0.80% -1,980 -11.26% 17,581 Menominee 5,326 46.64% 5,942 52.04% 151 1.32% -616 -5.40% 11,419 Midland 18,355 42.41% 24,369 56.31% 551 1.27% -6,014 -13.90% 43,275 Missaukee 2,319 31.25% 5,055 68.12% 47 0.63% -2,736 -36.87% 7,421 Monroe 36,089 48.68% 37,470 50.54% 573 0.77% -1,381 -1.86% 74,132 Montcalm 11,471 42.91% 14,968 55.99% 295 1.10% -3,497 -13.08% 26,734 Montmorency 2,196 39.48% 3,300 59.32% 67 1.20% -1,104 -19.84% 5,563 Muskegon 44,282 55.14% 35,302 43.96% 729 0.91% 8,980 11.18% 80,313 Newaygo 9,057 39.60% 13,608 59.49% 208 0.91% -4,551 -19.89% 22,873 Oakland 319,387 49.75% 316,633 49.32% 5,957 0.93% 2,754 0.43% 641,977 Oceana 5,441 44.25% 6,677 54.30% 179 1.46% -1,236 -10.05% 12,297 Ogemaw 5,215 48.30% 5,454 50.52% 127 1.18% -239 -2.22% 10,796 Ontonagon 1,863 44.44% 2,262 53.96% 67 1.60% -399 -9.52% 4,192 Osceola 4,467 39.93% 6,599 58.98% 122 1.09% -2,132 -19.05% 11,188 Oscoda 1,792 40.64% 2,570 58.29% 47 1.07% -778 -17.65% 4,409 Otsego 4,674 37.98% 7,470 60.70% 163 1.32% -2,796 -22.72% 12,307 Ottawa 35,552 27.64% 92,048 71.55% 1,043 0.81% -56,496 -43.91% 128,643 Presque Isle 3,432 45.66% 3,982 52.98% 102 1.36% -550 -7.32% 7,516 Roscommon 6,810 47.43% 7,364 51.28% 185 1.29% -554 -3.85% 14,359 Saginaw 54,887 53.37% 47,165 45.86% 800 0.78% 7,722 7.51% 102,852 St. Clair 36,174 45.36% 42,740 53.60% 829 1.04% -6,566 -8.24% 79,743 St. Joseph 9,648 38.23% 15,340 60.78% 251 0.99% -5,692 -22.55% 25,239 Sanilac 7,883 37.97% 12,632 60.84% 248 1.19% -4,749 -22.87% 20,763 Schoolcraft 2,137 48.12% 2,267 51.05% 37 0.83% -130 -2.93% 4,441 Shiawassee 16,881 46.06% 19,407 52.95% 363 0.99% -2,526 -6.89% 36,651 Tuscola 12,631 44.57% 15,389 54.31% 318 1.12% -2,758 -9.74% 28,338 Van Buren 16,151 47.26% 17,634 51.60% 389 1.14% -1,483 -4.34% 34,174 Washtenaw 109,953 63.46% 61,455 35.47% 1,856 1.07% 48,498 27.99% 173,264 Wayne 600,047 69.39% 257,750 29.81% 6,931 0.80% 342,297 39.58% 864,728 Wexford 6,034 39.80% 8,966 59.14% 160 1.06% -2,932 -19.34% 15,160Totals2,479,18351.23%2,313,74647.81%46,3230.96%165,4373.42%4,839,252 right 300px Swing by county Legend #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #00bdec Democratic — +12.5-15% 300px Trend by county Legend #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #00a1c8 Democratic — +>15% 300px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold #0671b0 Flip Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Alpena (largest municipality: Alpena) Calhoun (largest municipality: Battle Creek) Clare (largest municipality: Clare) Iosco (largest municipality: East Tawas) Iron (largest municipality: Iron River) Macomb (largest municipality: Warren) Manistee (largest municipality: Manistee) Monroe (largest municipality: Monroe) Ogemaw (largest municipality: Skidway Lake) Roscommon (largest municipality: Houghton Lake) Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Alger (largest municipality: Munising) By congressional district Bush won ten of 15 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project 2009-07-16 2015-10-16 https://web.archive.org/web/20151016181827/http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ live District Bush Kerry RepresentativeMichigan 1 1st 53% 46%Bart StupakMichigan 2 2nd 60% 39%Peter HoekstraMichigan 3 3rd 59% 40%Vern EhlersMichigan 4 4th 55% 44%Dave CampMichigan 5 5th 41% 59%Dale KildeeMichigan 6 6th 53% 46%Fred UptonMichigan 7 7th54%45%Nick SmithJoe Schwarz Michigan 8 8th 54% 45%Mike Rogers Michigan 9 9th 51% 49%Joe Knollenberg Michigan 10 10th 57% 43%Candice MillerMichigan 11 11th 53% 47%Thaddeus McCotter Michigan 12 12th 39% 61%Sander Levin Michigan 13 13th 19% 81%Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick Michigan 14 14th 17% 83%John Conyers Jr. Michigan 15 15th 38% 62%John Dingell Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards: Carol Vining Moore Margaret Robinson Ida I. DeHaas Marcela L. Ort Vickie Sue Price Paul Todd Leonard Smigielski Bruce McAttee Stanley W. Harris Yvonne Williams Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi Charley Jackson Joan Robinson Cheeks Roger Short Harless Scott Richard Shoemaker Michael Pitt See also Presidency of George W. Bush United States presidential elections in Michigan References Michigan 2004 Presidential