2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

none June 2025 September 2023 2004 United States presidential election 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania Pennsylvania presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania 2000 2008 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 21 2,938,095 50.92% George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 0 2,793,847 48.42% 300px County results 300px Congressional district results 300px Municipality results Kerry #B9D7FF 40–50% #86B6F2 50–60% #4389E3 60–70% #1666CB 70–80% #0645B4 80–90% Bush #F2B3BE 40–50% #E27F90 50–60% #CC2F4A 60–70% #D40000 70–80% #AA0000 80–90% #800000 90–100% Tie #D4C4DC President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) 68.9%As far as voter turnout, 2012's got nothing on 2008 https://whyy.org/articles/as-far-as-voter-turnout-2012s-got-nothing-on-2008/ 2024-09-05 WHYY en-US 5.9pp The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.50% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucial swing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.92% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning Philadelphia County with 80.44% of the vote. Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Pennsylvania either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, and is to date the only Republican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Pennsylvania was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, this election also marked the first time since 1968 that Pennsylvania voted against the winner of the national popular vote. As of 2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Pennsylvania would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied with Wisconsin and Michigan for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the third and most recent time since 1948 (after 2000 and 1968) that it would vote for the losing candidate. Primaries Eligibility In order to vote in the primary, one must have been:http://www.dos.state.pa.us/voting/cwp/view.asp?a=1192&q=443159&votingNav= Pennsylvania Department of State August 6, 2012 November 1, 2005 https://web.archive.org/web/20051101114232/http://www.dos.state.pa.us/voting/cwp/view.asp?a=1192&q=443159&votingNav= dead "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election." "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election." "At least 18 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election." A registered member of the party holding the primary Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison. Registration Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.http://www.dos.state.pa.us/voting/cwp/view.asp?a=1192&q=443061 Pennsylvania Department of State August 6, 2012 March 14, 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080314062630/http://www.dos.state.pa.us/voting/cwp/view.asp?a=1192&q=443061 dead Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote. Democratic primary election 2004 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only. Results +100% of precincts reporting Candidate Voteshttp://web.dos.state.pa.us/cgi-bin/ElectionResults/statewide1.cgi?choice=USP&eyear=2004&etype=P Pennsylvania Department of State - Commissions, Elections, and Legislation 2012-08-06 https://web.archive.org/web/20051227132237/http://web.dos.state.pa.us/cgi-bin/ElectionResults/statewide1.cgi?choice=USP&eyear=2004&etype=P 2005-12-27 dead Percentage Delegates John Kerry 585,683 74.1% 150 Howard Dean 79,799 10.1% 1 John Edwards 76,762 9.7% 0 Dennis Kucinich 30,110 3.8% 0 Lyndon LaRouche 17,528 2.2% 0 Uncommitted - 2.2% 27 Total 789,882 100% 178 Note: 27 delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.Pennsylvania Democratic Delegation 2004 Republican primary election The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.2004 General Primary http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=10 Elections Information Pennsylvania Department of State August 6, 2012 General election Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Archived copy dcpoliticalreport.com 13 January 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW 21 November 2010 usurped +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportToss-upAssociated PressToss-upCNNLikely DCook Political ReportToss-upNewsweekLean DNew York TimesLean DRasmussen ReportsToss-upResearch 2000Lean DWashington PostToss-upWashington TimesToss-upZogby InternationalLikely DWashington DispatchLikely D Polling Al Gore won Pennsylvania in 2000 with just over 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll.NBC News Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html RealClear Politics - Polls Fundraising Bush raised $5,030,349.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Kerry raised $4,998,861.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President Advertising and visits President Bush campaigned heavily and visited the state of Pennsylvania over twenty times in 2004. It was not enough to flip the state, as John Kerry won the undecided Pennsylvanians. He won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, outperforming Vice President Al Gore's performance four years earlier.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html America votes 2004: Candidate tracker CNN 2022-05-27http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys CNN 2022-05-27 2021-04-22 https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ live Analysis This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. Although Kerry-held cities that voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Although Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it did not vote Republican in a presidential election from 1992 to 2012. As of , Bush remains the only Republican to win two terms without carrying Pennsylvania at least once. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was the most conservative in the Mid-Atlantic. 2024 11 As of the 2024, this is the last presidential election that the Democratic candidate won Washington County, Beaver County and Fayette County. This is also the last election in which Dauphin County and Centre County voted for the Republican candidate. This is also the last time that Chester County gave a majority to a Republican, although Mitt Romney did win the county with a plurality in 2012. This is the last time Democrats won a majority of congressional districts in the state. Results 2004 United States presidential election in PennsylvaniaPartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Kerry 2,938,095 50.92% 21 Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,793,847 48.42% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 21,185 0.37% 0 Green David Cobb 6,319 0.11% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka 6,318 0.11% 0 Independent Ralph Nader (write-in) http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=2478509 https://web.archive.org/web/20041116124342/http://www.wnep.com/Global/story.asp?S=2478509 Pennsylvania notes from the campaign trail October 2004 Associated Press WNEP November 16, 2004 April 26, 2024Nader initially qualified to appear on the ballot via petition, but on October 13, 2004, a ruling of the Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania removed him from the ballot after finding that most of the petition's signatures were invalid or forged. https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/14/politics/campaign/court-strikes-nader-from-pennsylvania-ballot.html Court Strikes Nader From Pennsylvania Ballot Zernike Kate October 14, 2004 The New York Times A25 April 26, 2024 limited 2,656 0.05% 0 Independent Write-ins 1,170 0.02% 0 Totals 5,769,590 100.00% 21 Voter turnout (voting age population) 60.5% By county Countyhttps://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyBreakDownResults?officeId=1&districtId=1&ElectionID=13&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0 Pennsylvania Elections – County Breakdown Results electionreturns.pa.gov November 2, 2004 December 28, 2019John KerryDemocraticGeorge W. BushRepublicanMichael J. BadnarikLibertarianDavid CobbGreenMichael PeroutkaConstitutionMarginTotal votes cast#%#%#%#%#%#%Adams13,76432.59%28,24766.89%950.22%630.15%590.14%-14,483-34.30%42,228Allegheny368,91257.15%271,92542.13%3,5730.55%5510.09%5080.08%96,98715.02%645,469Armstrong12,02538.67%18,92560.86%560.18%410.13%500.16%-6,900-22.19%31,097Beaver42,14651.06%39,91648.36%1650.20%1410.17%1750.21%2,2302.70%82,543Bedford6,01626.53%16,60673.22%190.08%150.07%230.10%-10,590-46.69%22,679Berks76,30946.39%87,12252.97%5510.33%2950.18%2100.13%-10,813-6.58%164,487Blair18,10533.42%35,75165.99%2100.39%540.10%580.11%-17,646-32.57%54,178Bradford8,59033.49%16,94266.05%570.22%270.11%360.14%-8,352-32.56%25,652Bucks163,43851.10%154,46948.30%1,3380.42%3080.10%2630.08%8,9692.80%319,816Butler30,09035.22%54,95964.34%1820.21%830.10%1110.13%-24,869-29.12%85,425Cambria32,59148.66%34,04850.83%1590.24%860.13%990.15%-1,457-2.17%66,983Cameron79433.00%1,59966.46%80.33%30.12%20.08%-805-33.46%2,406Carbon12,22348.81%12,51949.99%2290.91%420.17%300.12%-296-1.18%25,043Centre30,73347.74%33,13351.47%2270.35%900.14%700.11%-2,400-3.73%64,374Chester109,70847.53%120,03652.00%6320.27%2630.11%1840.08%-10,328-4.47%230,823Clarion6,04935.20%11,06364.38%370.22%190.11%160.09%-5,014-29.18%17,184Clearfield13,51839.49%20,53359.98%680.20%470.14%670.20%-7,015-20.49%34,233Clinton5,82341.69%8,03557.53%830.59%130.09%130.09%-2,212-15.84%13,967Columbia10,67939.74%16,05259.74%570.21%390.15%420.16%-5,373-20.00%26,869Crawford16,01341.79%21,96557.32%1760.46%630.16%1050.27%-5,952-15.53%38,322Cumberland37,92835.75%67,64863.77%2650.25%1120.11%1290.12%-29,720-28.02%106,082Dauphin55,29945.62%65,29653.87%2740.23%1710.14%1680.14%-9,997-8.25%121,208Delaware162,60157.15%120,42542.32%9460.33%3120.11%2540.09%42,17614.83%284,538Elk6,60245.37%7,87254.10%250.17%200.14%310.21%-1,270-8.73%14,550Erie67,92153.95%57,37245.57%3340.27%1590.13%1120.09%10,5498.38%125,898Fayette29,12053.23%25,04545.78%4470.82%430.08%520.10%4,0757.45%54,707Forest98938.44%1,57161.06%80.31%30.12%20.08%-582-22.62%2,573Franklin16,56228.28%41,81771.40%900.15%440.08%560.10%-25,255-43.12%58,569Fulton1,47523.52%4,77276.10%150.24%40.06%50.08%-3,297-52.58%6,271Greene7,67449.30%7,78650.02%320.21%440.28%290.19%-112-0.72%15,565Huntingdon5,87932.56%12,12667.15%200.11%190.11%140.08%-6,247-34.59%18,058Indiana15,83143.67%20,25455.88%770.21%470.13%390.11%-4,423-12.21%36,248Jefferson6,07331.05%13,37168.36%580.30%280.14%300.15%-7,298-37.31%19,560Juniata2,79727.95%7,14471.40%300.30%150.15%200.20%-4,347-43.45%10,006Lackawanna59,57356.30%44,76642.30%1,2881.22%1130.11%790.07%14,80714.00%105,819Lancaster74,32833.58%145,59165.77%7050.32%2550.12%3990.18%-71,263-32.19%221,372Lawrence21,38749.23%21,93850.50%560.13%260.06%350.08%-551-1.27%43,442Lebanon18,10932.53%37,08966.63%3230.58%510.09%930.17%-18,980-34.10%55,665Lehigh73,94050.96%70,16048.36%6380.44%1600.11%1930.13%3,7802.60%145,091Luzerne69,57351.15%64,95347.75%1,1950.88%1800.13%1270.09%4,6203.40%136,028Lycoming15,68131.31%33,96167.81%2790.56%770.15%510.10%-18,280-36.50%50,081McKean6,29436.12%10,94162.79%1480.85%230.13%200.11%-4,647-26.67%17,426Mercer24,83148.16%26,31151.03%1490.29%1330.26%1400.27%-1,480-2.87%51,564Mifflin4,88929.10%11,72669.79%1440.86%200.12%230.14%-6,837-40.69%16,802Monroe27,96749.64%27,97149.65%2870.51%640.11%530.09%-4-0.01%56,342Montgomery222,04855.57%175,74143.98%1,0880.27%3490.09%3650.09%46,30711.59%399,591Montour2,66634.97%4,90364.31%340.45%100.13%110.14%-2,237-29.34%7,624Northampton63,44650.02%62,10248.96%8850.70%1870.15%1200.09%1,3441.06%126,849Northumberland14,60239.32%22,26259.95%1390.37%470.13%840.23%-7,660-20.63%37,134Perry5,42327.91%13,91971.65%360.19%240.12%250.13%-8,496-43.74%19,427Philadelphia542,20580.44%130,09919.30%8950.13%4830.07%3870.06%412,10661.14%674,069Pike8,65640.64%12,44458.43%1440.68%310.15%240.11%-3,788-17.79%21,299Potter2,26828.49%5,64070.84%180.23%90.11%270.34%-3,372-42.35%7,962Schuylkill29,23144.79%35,64054.60%1860.28%1290.20%830.13%-6,409-9.81%65,269Snyder4,34829.02%10,56670.52%330.22%180.12%180.12%-6,218-41.50%14,983Somerset12,84234.92%23,80264.72%480.13%380.10%480.13%-10,960-29.80%36,778Sullivan1,21336.93%2,05662.59%100.30%50.15%10.03%-843-25.66%3,285Susquehanna7,35138.61%11,57360.78%540.28%330.17%290.15%-4,222-22.17%19,040Tioga5,43730.94%12,01968.40%490.28%230.13%430.24%-6,582-37.46%17,571Union5,70035.35%10,33464.09%460.29%300.19%130.08%-4,634-28.74%16,123Venango9,02438.14%14,47261.17%930.39%310.13%390.16%-5,448-23.03%23,659Warren8,04441.74%10,99957.07%790.41%340.18%1170.61%-2,955-15.33%19,273Washington48,22550.14%47,67349.57%1420.15%590.06%780.08%5520.57%96,177Wayne8,06036.69%13,71362.43%1360.62%230.10%350.16%-5,653-25.74%21,967Westmoreland77,77443.52%100,08756.01%4740.27%1550.09%2060.12%-22,313-12.49%178,696Wyoming4,98238.82%7,78260.65%200.16%220.17%260.20%-2,800-21.83%12,832York63,70135.53%114,27063.74%8210.46%2130.12%2640.15%-50,569-28.21%179,269Totals2,938,09550.92%2,793,84748.42%21,1850.37%6,3190.11%6,3180.11%144,2482.50%5,769,590 right 300px Swing by county Legend #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% 300px Trend by county Legend #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% 300px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown) Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton) Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg) Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle) Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage) By congressional district Kerry won ten of 19 congressional districts, including four held by Republicans. Bush won nine districts, including one held by a Democrat.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project December 15, 2008 District Bush Kerry RepresentativePennsylvania 1 1st 15% 84%Bob BradyPennsylvania 2 2nd 12% 87%Chaka FattahPennsylvania 3 3rd 53% 47%Phil EnglishPennsylvania 4 4th 54% 45%Melissa HartPennsylvania 5 5th 61% 39%John E. Peterson Pennsylvania 6 6th 48% 52%Jim GerlachPennsylvania 7 7th 47% 53%Curt WeldonPennsylvania 8 8th48%51%James C. GreenwoodMike FitzpatrickPennsylvania 9 9th 67% 33%Bill ShusterPennsylvania 10 10th 60% 40%Don SherwoodPennsylvania 11 11th 47% 53%Paul KanjorskiPennsylvania 12 12th 49% 51% John MurthaPennsylvania 13 13th43%56%Joe HoeffelAllyson SchwartzPennsylvania 14 14th 30% 69%Mike DoylePennsylvania 15 15th50%50%Pat ToomeyCharlie DentPennsylvania 16 16th 61% 38%Joe PittsPennsylvania 17 17th 58% 42%Tim HoldenPennsylvania 18 18th 54% 46%Tim MurphyPennsylvania 19 19th 64% 36%Todd Platts Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors Technically the voters of Pennsylvania cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards. Lynne Abraham Richard Bloomingdale Blondell Reynolds Brown Robert Casey Jr. Eileen Connelly H. William DeWeese John Dougherty Richard E. Filippi William George Renee Gillinger Jennifer Mann Robert J. Mellow Dan Onorato Juan Ramos Stephen R. Reed T.J. Rooney Jonathan Saidel John F. Street Rosemary Trump Sala Udin Constance H. Williams See also United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania Notes References Pennsylvania 2004 Presidential