2012 Port Adelaide state by-election

January 2021 October 2015 thumb|Port Adelaide, outlined in yellow, is a north-western metropolitan seat in Adelaide, South Australia. A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Port Adelaide on 11 February 2012. Labor's Susan Close won the seat on a 52.9 percent two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Deputy Premier, Treasurer and state Labor MHA Kevin Foley.http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/date-set-for-port-adelaide-by-election-after-kevin-foley-resigns/story-e6frea83-1226220651601 Date set for Port Adelaide by-election after Kevin Foley resigns Martin Sarah The Advertiser Adelaide 13 December 2011 28 January 2011 Background Foley and Mike Rann resigned from their parliamentary seats, which created twin by-elections for 11 February, the other being the 2012 Ramsay by-election. On two-party-preferred vote (TPP) margins of 12.8 and 18.0 points from the 2010 election, considered safe margins on the current pendulum, Labor would have likely retained both seats on the TPP vote based on unchanged statewide Newspoll since the previous election. In the lower house, 24 seats form a majority, the Labor government held 26 of 47 seats. If one or both seats had been lost, Labor would still have retained majority government.http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/labor-by-elections-candidates-confirmed/story-e6frea6u-1226186953559 Labor by-elections candidates confirmed Wills Daniel The Advertiser 6 November 2011 28 January 2012http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/polling-shows-labor-will-hold-foley-seat-in-a-by-election/story-e6frea83-1226144062068 Polling shows Labor will hold Foley seat in a by-election Kelton Greg The Advertiser Adelaide 23 September 2011 28 January 2012http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/premier-propels-labor-to-pole-position/story-e6frea83-1226198319212 Labor soars on crest of a Jay curve Wills Daniel The Advertiser 18 November 2011 28 January 2012 Foley was first elected as the member for the new north-western metropolitan seat of Hart at the 1993 election. Hart was mostly replaced with a recreated Port Adelaide ahead of the 2002 election, and Foley followed most of his constituents into the new seat. From Rann Labor's election to government in 2002 until 2011, Foley became the longest-serving Deputy Premier of South Australia and the third-longest-serving Treasurer of South Australia. The last by-election was the 2009 Frome by-election, when another former Premier, Rob Kerin, retired from politics. The seat was narrowly won by an independent candidate. Timeline Date Event 12 December 2011 Kevin Foley resigned from the Parliament of South Australia. 4 January 2012 Writs were issued by the Speaker of the House of Assembly to proceed with a by-election. 16 January 2012 Enrolment on electoral rolls closed, with a total of 25,248 voters enrolled for the by-election.http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/uploadedFiles/news/717/19_Jan_-_Candidates_Announced_for_Port_Adelaide_by-election.pdf Port Adelaide by-election candidates announced 2012-07-26 https://web.archive.org/web/20130424200139/http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/uploadedFiles/news/717/19_Jan_-_Candidates_Announced_for_Port_Adelaide_by-election.pdf 24 April 2013 dead 19 January 2012 Candidate nominations closed and ballot order draw occurred, in line with s60(a) of the Electoral Act 1985.http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/news/?sectionID=162&pageID=708 Port Adelaide election timetable Electoral Commission SA 28 January 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20130409185007/http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/news/?sectionID=162&pageID=708 9 April 2013 dead 11 February 2012 Polling day occurred between the hours of 8am and 6pm. 27 February 2012 Writ returned before this date for formal result declaration. Candidates 9 candidates in ballot paper orderhttp://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2012/ramsayportadelaide/port.htm 2012 Port Adelaide by-election guide Green Antony ABC Elections 28 January 2012  Independent True Blue Voice Sue Lawrie Liberal Party member, contested seat at previous election as the official Liberal Party candidate.http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-21/liberal-independent-sue-lawrie-port-adelaide/3741414 Liberal independent to contest by-election ABC Online 21 December 2011 28 January 2012  Independent Ban Live Animal Exports Colin Thomas Contested the federal Port Adelaide seat for the Greens in 2007 and the neighbouring state seat in 2010 as an independent.  Independent Communist Australia Bob Briton Endorsed candidate of the unregistered Communist Party, who contested the neighbouring seat at previous election.https://cpasa.blogspot.com/2011/12/bob-briton-to-run-in-port-adelaide-by.html Bob Briton to run in Port Adelaide by-election Cpasa.blogspot.com 2011-12-15 2012-07-26http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/communist-party-to-contest-by-election/story-e6frea6u-1226222298457 Communist Party to contest by-election The Advertiser 15 December 2011 28 January 2012   Democratic Labor Elizabeth Pistor No information available.  One Nation Grant Carlin Runs a horticultural business.http://sa.onenation.com.au One Nation website Sa.onenation.com.au 2012-07-26 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20110218003029/http://sa.onenation.com.au/ 18 February 2011  Labor Susan Close Former Department for Environment and Natural Resources executive.  SA Greens Justin McArthur Student, environment officer and union board director at Adelaide University, and a radio producer.http://sa.greens.org.au/branchpage.php?index=59 Justin MCARTHUR for Port Adelaide: SA Greens 10 January 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120215231331/http://sa.greens.org.au/branchpage.php?index=59 15 February 2012 live   Independent for You Gary Johanson Former Liberal Party member, and Mayor of Port Adelaide Enfield.http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-02-23/port-mayor-looks-to-run-against-foley/339940 Port mayor looks to run against Foley ABC Online 23 February 2010 28 January 2012  Liberal Democrats Stephen Humble Studied electronic engineering at TAFE, communications engineer for a large corporation.http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100001851063829&ref=ts Stephen Humble Facebook profile Facebook.com 2010-01-31 2012-07-26 A record nine candidates nominated for the seat of Port Adelaide. The Liberal Party, Family First Party, and independent candidate Max James, who contested the previous election and gained a primary vote of 26.8 percent, 5.9 percent, and 11.0 percent respectively, did not contest the by-election.http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8370982/libs-yet-to-decide-on-sa-by-elections https://archive.today/20120714223505/http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8370982/libs-yet-to-decide-on-sa-by-elections dead 14 July 2012 Libs yet to decide on SA by-elections NineMSN 7 November 2011 28 January 2012 Polling Three opinion polls were conducted and released by the in-house polling group at The Advertiser, Adelaide's main newspaper: On 21 September 2011, 642 voters were polled in the seat. Before either major party decided on a candidate, Labor's primary vote was at 37 percent (49.9 percent at the last election), the Liberals on 31 percent (26.8 percent), Johanson on 14 percent, the Greens on 11 percent (6.3 percent), and other independents with 6 percent. On 18 January 2012, 475 voters were polled in the seat. Since the September 2011 poll, there had been a change of Premier, Labor preselected Close, Foley formally resigned from parliament, and the Liberal Party declined to field a candidate. Labor's primary vote was at 48 percent, Johanson on 23 percent, the LDP on 14 percent, Lawrie on 9 percent, the Greens on 3 percent, with remaining candidates on about 3 percent collectively.http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/women-save-labors-seat/story-e6frea6u-1226248795934 Female voters save Labor's seat Wills Daniel The Advertiser Adelaide 20 January 2012 28 January 2012http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/port-adelaide-poll-fear-for-labor/story-e6frea6u-1226261275547 Port Adelaide poll fear for Labor The Advertiser Adelaide 2012-02-03 2012-07-26 On 1 February 2012, 402 voters were polled in the seat, with Labor on 44 percent, Lawrie on 18 percent, Johanson on 14 percent, the Greens on 12 percent, and remaining candidates including the LDP on about 12 percent collectively.Crouch Brad http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/the-battle-for-port-heats-up/story-e6frea6u-1226262763033 The battle for Port heats up The Advertiser Adelaide 2012-02-04 2012-07-26 Under instant runoff voting with voters' full preference allocation, on the above polling and without a Liberal candidate, it was possible for one of several candidates to win. On how-to-vote cards located on all polling booths at each polling place, Briton recommended preferences to the Greens and then Labor, the Greens recommended preferences to Labor, Thomas had a split ticket recommending Labor or Johanson, while the remaining party and independent candidates including Johanson generally recommended preferences between each other in varying order. The by-election was expected to be a close contest on both eliminated candidate preference flows and the final TCP vote.http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/apps/uploadedFiles/news/715/Port_Adelaide_-_How_To_Vote_Cards.pdf Candidate "how-to-vote" preference cards for the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election 2012-07-26 March 2018 InternetArchiveBot yes Williamson Brett http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/02/06/3423830.htm Port Adelaide by-election may bring surprise result Australian Broadcasting Corporation 2012-02-06 2012-07-26 Result Port Adelaide state by-election, 11 February 2012 Susan Close Labor SA 8,218 42.3 –7.6 Gary Johanson #888888 Independent for You 4,717 24.3 +24.3 |- | liberal width:1px |   | style="text-align:left;"| Independent True Blue Voice | style="text-align:left;"| Sue Lawrie | style="text-align:right;"| 2,938 | style="text-align:right;"| 15.1 | style="text-align:right;"| +15.1 |- Stephen Humble Liberal Democrats 1,415 7.3 +7.3 Justin McArthur SA Greens 1,096 5.6 –0.6 Colin Thomas #888888 Independent Ban Live Animal Exports 314 1.6 +1.6 |- | Communist width:1px |   | style="text-align:left;"| Independent Communist Australia | style="text-align:left;"| Bob Briton | style="text-align:right;"| 292 | style="text-align:right;"| 1.5 | style="text-align:right;"| +1.5 |- Grant Carlin One Nation 269 1.4 +1.4 Elizabeth Pistor Democratic Labor 151 0.8 +0.8 19,410 92.8 –3.8 1,505 7.2 +3.8 20,915 82.8 –10.4 Labor SA Susan Close 10,277 52.9 –9.8 #888888 Independent for You Gary Johanson 9,133 47.1 +47.1 Labor SA N/A Labor retained the seat on a 52.9 percent TCP vote against Johanson, with a majority in seven of 11 polling places. Postal votes were included on 13 February, absentee and pre-poll votes were included on 14 February. Preference distributions occurred on 18 February. Results are final.http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/byelection2012/results/electoral637.htm 2012 Port Adelaide by-election results Ecsa.sa.gov.au 2012-02-18 2012-07-26 dead https://archive.today/20120728160132/http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/byelection2012/results/electoral637.htm 28 July 2012http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/byelection2012/pdf/Distribution_of_Preferences_PortAdelaide.pdf Port Adelaide by-election preference distribution 2012-07-26 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20130409185020/http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/byelection2012/pdf/Distribution_of_Preferences_PortAdelaide.pdf 9 April 2013http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2012/ramsayportadelaide/port_result.htm 2012 Port Adelaide by-election results: Antony Green ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation 2012-02-20 2012-07-26http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/02/11/port-adelaide-and-ramsay-by-election/ Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections live: Poll Bludger Blogs.crikey.com.au 2012-02-11 2012-07-26 7 June 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120607051838/http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/02/11/port-adelaide-and-ramsay-by-election/ dead Close call as Labor takes a hit in Port Adelaide: The Advertiser 12 February 2012December 2025 InternetArchiveBot Neither a TPP or TCP swing could be produced, as the 2010 result was between Labor and Liberal rather than Labor and independent with no Liberal candidate. An increase or decrease in margins in these situations cannot be meaningfully interpreted as swings. As explained by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Antony Green, when a major party does not contest a by-election, preferences from independents or minor parties that would normally flow to both major parties does not take place, causing asymmetric preference flows. Examples of this are the 2008 Mayo and 2002 Cunningham federal by-elections, with seats returning to TPP form at the next election.http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/02/a-comment-on-the-size-of-the-port-adelaide-swing.html A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing, Antony Green Blogs.abc.net.au 2012-02-13 2012-07-26 This contradicted News Ltd claims of large swings and a potential Liberal Party win in Port Adelaide at the next election.http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/port-now-a-poll-target-for-liberals/story-e6frea6u-1226287816328 Port now a poll target for Liberals The Advertiser Adelaide 2012-03-02 2012-07-26Susan Close wins Port Adelaide for Labor but seat now marginal: The Australian 11 February 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120211194341/http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/susan-close-wins-port-adelaide-for-labor-but-seat-now-marginal/story-e6frgczx-1226268681377 2012-02-11Labor Keeps Port Adelaide, Ramsay in South Australian by-elections: The Australian 12 February 2012By-election swings carry 'message for Labor': The Australian 13 February 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120214033323/http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/by-election-swings-carry-message-for-labor/story-e6frgczx-1226269145455 2012-02-14 At the 2014 election, Port Adelaide was Labor's 7th safest seat on a margin of over 10 percent. Johanson unsuccessfully contested the neighbouring seat of Lee at the 2014 election with a primary vote of 11.2 percent. See also List of South Australian House of Assembly by-elections References External links A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing: Antony Green ABC 13 February 2012 2012 Port Adelaide by-election guide: ABC elections Two By-elections for South Australia?, Antony Green: ABC elections 1 August 2011 Port Adelaide and Ramsay By-elections, Antony Green: ABC elections 20 December 2011 Port Adelaide and Ramsay By-election Updates, Antony Green: ABC elections 19 January 2012 Category:2012 elections in Australia Category:South Australian state by-elections Category:2012 in Adelaide