2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election

State election in Germany Landtagswahl in Nordrhein-Westfalen 2012 March 2012 gov 2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election North Rhine-Westphalia parliamentary no 2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election 2010 2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election 2017 All 237 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia, including 56 overhang and leveling seats 119 13 May 2012 7,901,268 (59.6% 0.3 pp) 150x150px Hannelore Kraft Social Democratic Party of Germany 67 seats, 34.5% 99 32 3,049,983 39.1% 4.6 pp 150x150px Norbert Röttgen Christian Democratic Union of Germany 67 seats, 34.6% 67 0 2,050,321 26.3% 8.3 pp 150x150px Sylvia Löhrmann Alliance 90/The Greens 23 seats, 12.1% 29 6 884,298 11.3% 0.8 pp 150x150px Christian Lindner Free Democratic Party (Germany) 13 seats, 6.7% 22 9 670,082 8.6% 1.9 pp 150x150px Joachim Paul Pirate Party Germany 0 seats, 1.6% 20 20 609,176 7.8% 6.2 pp 150x150px Katharina Schwabedissen The Left (Germany) 11 seats, 5.6% 0 11 194,428 2.5% 3.1 pp 2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election.svg 400px Results for the single-member constituencies Government First Kraft cabinet SPD–Green Government after election Second Kraft cabinet SPD–Green The 2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 13 May 2012 to elect the members of the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The incumbent minority government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by Minister-President Hannelore Kraft was returned with a majority and continued in office. The seat count drastically increased from 181 in the previous election to 237. Background Germany's largest state has often been described as a bellwether in recent years. http://www.smh.com.au/world/merkels-austerity-push-rejected-in-bellwether-state-20120514-1ym1f.html dead https://web.archive.org/web/20120515080935/http://www.smh.com.au/world/merkels-austerity-push-rejected-in-bellwether-state-20120514-1ym1f.html 2012-05-15 Merkel's austerity push rejected in bellwether state https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/may/13/eu-leaders-showdown-eurozone-crisis EU leaders set for showdown on fate of euro as crisis deepens TheGuardian.com 14 May 2012 The SPD governed continuously from 1966 until a CDU–FDP coalition took control in the 2005 state election. This defeat led Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to call a federal election, which he lost. In the 2010 state election, the CDU held a 0.1% lead over the SPD, though both parties won 67 seats. The SPD and Greens emerged one seat short of a majority, while the CDU and FDP were 10 seats short. This was due to the new presence of The Left. After failed negotiations with The Left, the SPD and Greens formed a minority government with SPD leader Hannelore Kraft as Minister-President.Biggest German state heads for early election http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20120314-41343.html 14 March 2012 The Local 14 March 2012 The state budget was rejected by the Landtag on 14 March 2012.von Hellfeld Matthias Budget bungle forces snap state election http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,15810093,00.html 15 March 2012 Deutsche Welle 15 March 2012 The government expected the FDP to abstain from the vote, allowing it to pass.North Rhine-Westphalia Faces Snap Election http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,821308,00.html 14 March 2012 Spiegel Online 14 March 2012 However, the CDU, FDP, and Left all voted against the budget, and it was rejected. This led to the dissolution of the Landtag and a snap election. Campaign and issues The SPD and Greens sought to win a majority; polls predicted they would make gains. The CDU nominated federal Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen as their lead candidate. He was criticised for refusing to state whether, if the CDU lost the election, he would continue to lead the state party or return to federal politics. Opinion polls showed that voters preferred Kraft as Minister-President by a wide margin. The CDU made tackling the state's €230 billion debt a key issue; at one point they used a giant inflatable "debt mountain" as a prop.https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-prepares-for-an-austerity-backlash-as-key-state-goes-to-the-polls-7734727.html https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220501/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-prepares-for-an-austerity-backlash-as-key-state-goes-to-the-polls-7734727.html 2022-05-01 subscription Angela Merkel prepares for an austerity backlash as key state goes to Independent.co.uk 11 May 2012 The FDP had fallen out of six state elections since joining the federal government in 2009, but had managed to retain their seats with 8.2% of the vote in the Schleswig-Holstein state election a week before the North Rhine-Westphalia election. The Pirate Party ran on a loose platform of Internet freedom and grassroots democracy. Parties The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. Name Ideology Leader(s) 2010 result Votes (%) Seats CDU Christian Democratic Union of GermanyChristlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands Christian democracy Norbert Röttgen 34.6% 67 181 Christian Democratic Union of Germany SPD Social Democratic Party of GermanySozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands Social democracy Hannelore Kraft 34.5% 67 181 Social Democratic Party of Germany Grüne Alliance 90/The GreensBündnis 90/Die Grünen Green politics Sylvia Löhrmann 12.1% 23 181 Alliance 90/The Greens FDP Free Democratic PartyFreie Demokratische Partei Classical liberalism Christian Lindner 6.7% 13 181 Free Democratic Party (Germany) Linke The LeftDie Linke Democratic socialism Katharina Schwabedissen 5.6% 11 181 The Left (Germany) Opinion polling Party polling Polling firm Fieldwork date Samplesize CDU SPD Grüne FDP Linke Piraten Others Lead 2012 state election 13 May 2012 – 26.3 39.1 11.3 8.6 2.5 7.8 4.3 12.8 INFO GmbH 3–5 May 2012 1,007 33 38 11 5 4 8 1 5 YouGov 27 Apr–7 May 2012 1,063 30 37 12 6 3.5 8.5 3 7 YouGov 24 Apr–4 May 2012 1,053 31 37 11 5 4 9 3 6 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 30 Apr–3 May 2012 1,082 31 38 11 6 3 8 3 7 Infratest dimap 1–3 May 2012 1,003 30 38.5 11 6 4 7.5 3 8.5 YouGov 20–29 Apr 2012 1,038 31 36 11 5 4 10 3 5 Forsa 23–27 Apr 2012 1,008 32 37 10 5 3 10 3 5 Emnid 23–24 Apr 2012 1,001 32 38 10 5 4 9 ? 6 Infratest dimap 17–19 Apr 2012 1,001 31 39 11 4 3 9 3 8 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 17–19 Apr 2012 1,045 34 37 11 4 3 8 3 3 YouGov 5–16 Apr 2012 1,064 32 36 13 4 4 8 3 4 INFO GmbH 4–7 Apr 2012 1,005 29 40 10 3 3 11 3 11 Infratest dimap 22–24 Mar 2012 1,001 32 40 12 4 3 5 4 8 Forsa 15–17 Mar 2012 1,003 33 39 11 4 4 6 3 6 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 14–15 Mar 2012 1,073 34 37 13 2 4 6 4 3 Infratest dimap 14 Mar 2012 1,002 34 38 14 2 4 5 3 4 14 Mar 2012 State budget is rejected by the Landtag; snap election is called YouGov 2–12 Mar 2012 1,065 33 33 17 2 5 7 3 Tie Infratest dimap 22–23 Feb 2012 1,004 35 35 17 2 3 5 3 Tie YouGov 27 Jan–6 Feb 2012 1,018 31 33 15 3 6 7 5 2 YouGov 6–16 Jan 2012 1,039 31 33 17 3 5 8 3 2 YouGov 14–21 Dec 2011 1,005 31 34 15 4 6 7 3 3 YouGov 2–12 Dec 2011 1,026 31 34 15 4 6 7 3 3 YouGov 28 Oct–7 Nov 2011 1,042 30 31 18 3 5 9 4 1 Infratest dimap 11–13 Oct 2011 1,000 31 35 16 3 4 7 4 4 YouGov October 2011 1,000 30 32 17 4 5 8 4 2 YouGov 8–15 Sep 2011 982 33 33 17 6 5 – 6 Tie Emnid 29 Jul–4 Aug 2011 1,063 32 34 20 5 5 – 4 2 Forsa 1–7 Jul 2011 1,004 32 33 21 3 4 – 7 1 Infratest dimap 29–31 Mar 2011 1,000 34 30 24 4 4 2 2 4 Emnid 4–10 Mar 2011 1,000 35 35 14 5 5 – 6 Tie Forsa 18–28 Jan 2011 1,008 35 34 17 4 4 – 6 1 Emnid 19–25 Jan 2011 635 36 36 15 4 4 – 5 Tie YouGov 20–24 Jan 2011 1,029 24.7 30.6 14.1 5.5 8.6 1.3 15.2 5.9 Infratest dimap 16–18 Dec 2010 1,000 32 36 18 4 5 – 5 4 Forsa 11–15 Oct 2010 1,002 31 35 19 3 5 – 7 4 Infratest dimap 6–8 Jul 2010 1,001 32 36 17 5 6 – 4 4 Emnid 25 Jun 2010 ? 35 36 12 6 7 – 4 1 Emnid 17–26 May 2010 1,001 34 35 12 6 7 – 6 1 2010 state election 9 May 2010 – 34.6 34.5 12.1 6.7 5.6 1.6 4.9 0.1 Seat forecast Analysts on election.de forecast the likely results of the 128 direct mandates. These seats traditionally have been held by either the CDU or SPD, with minor parties standing little chance of winning any. Polling firm Fieldwork date CDU SPD Lead 2012 state election 13 May 2012 29 99 70 election.de 12 May 2012 39 89 50 election.de 5 May 2012 38 90 52 election.de 28 Apr 2012 41 87 46 election.de 21 Apr 2012 54 74 20 election.de 14 Apr 2012 39 89 50 election.de 7 Apr 2012 46 82 36 2010 state election 9 May 2010 67 61 8 Minister-President polling Polling firm Fieldwork date 90px 90px Lead Hannelore KraftSPD Norbert RöttgenCDU INFO GmbH 11 May 2012 53 22 31 YouGov 7 May 2012 46 19 27 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 4 May 2012 63 27 36 Infratest dimap 3 May 2012 58 26 32 Forsa 2 May 2012 56 25 31 Infratest dimap 22 Apr 2012 58 30 28 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 20 Apr 2012 55 32 23 INFO GmbH 14 Apr 2012 49 21 28 Infratest dimap 25 Mar 2012 57 28 29 Forsa 21 Mar 2012 56 26 30 Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15 Mar 2012 54 30 24 Infratest dimap 14 Mar 2012 57 26 31 https://archive.today/20120906035334/http://www.ksta.de/html/artikel/1331653404417.shtml YouGov 14 Mar 2012 42 21 21 Infratest dimap 26 Feb 2012 51 29 22 YouGov 19 Jan 2012 36 17 19 Election result There was a major swing from the CDU to the SPD and to the Pirates, who entered their fourth state parliament in a row. The Greens stayed essentially level, while the FDP bucked the national trend, achieving a 2-point swing in their favour. This was attributed to the popular leadership of Christian Lindner.https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/14/world/europe/in-rebuke-to-merkel-social-democrats-win-german-vote.html In Rebuke to Merkel's Party, Social Democrats Win German Vote The New York Times 13 May 2012 Kulish Nicholas Lindner was elected FDP federal leader one year later, after their historic defeat in the 2013 German federal election. The Left lost over half their voteshare and lost their seats after just two years in the Landtag. The SPD won a landslide in the direct mandates, winning 99 seats to the CDU's 29. This led to a large number of overhang seats for the SPD and leveling seats for other parties, increasing the size of the Landtag from 181 to 237 seats. State CDU leader Norbert Röttgen resigned, but refused to become leader of the opposition in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia, instead continuing to serve as Minister for the Environment. Because of that, in what was considered unceremonious and highly unusual move (ministers are normally given the courtesy of resigning by themselves even after scandals), Chancellor Merkel fired him under Article 64 of the German Basic Law three days after the election. #F8F9FA 350 99 Social Democratic Party of Germany 29 Alliance 90/The Greens 20 Pirate Party Germany 22 Free Democratic Party (Germany) 67 Christian Democratic Union of Germany Constituency Party list Social Democratic Party (SPD) 3290561 +3.79 99 3049983 +4.65 0 99 +32 Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 2545309 –5.83 29 2050321 –8.25 38 67 ±0 Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 723581 –0.84 0 884298 –0.78 29 29 +6 Free Democratic Party (FDP) 372727 +0.09 0 670082 +1.87 22 22 +9 Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 617926 +7.03 0 609176 +6.26 20 20 +20 The Left (LINKE) 201637 –2.77 0 194428 –3.12 0 0 –11 Citizens' Movement pro NRW (Pro NRW) 118326 +0.14 0 0 ±0 Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) 58091 +0.13 0 0 ±0 National Democratic Party (NPD) 40007 –0.20 0 0 ±0 Family Party of Germany (FAMILIE) 1722 –0.09 0 33793 +0.02 0 0 ±0 Die PARTEI 6362 +0.07 0 22915 +0.17 0 0 ±0 Free Voters (FW) 10600 New 0 17970 New 0 0 New Alliance for Innovation and Justice (BIG) 10694 –0.04 0 0 ±0 Party for Labour, Environment and Family (AUF) 2726 +0.01 0 10217 +0.06 0 0 ±0 Free Citizens Initiative/Free Voters (FBI) 1538 +0.01 0 9496 +0.03 0 0 ±0 Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 1336 –0.02 0 7842 ±0.00 0 0 ±0 Party of Reason (Vernunft) 6356 New 0 0 New From now – Alliance for Germany 1087 –0.01 0 0 ±0 Pensioners' Party (RRP) 418 –0.08 0 0 ±0 Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) 272 –0.09 0 0 ±0 Liberal Democrats (LD) 120 ±0.00 0 0 ±0 League for All-Germany (BGD) 83 ±0.00 0 0 ±0 Independents 2605 ±0.00 0 0 ±0 +56 120658 13262049 107273 13262049 Sources Category:Elections in North Rhine-Westphalia North Rhine-Westphalia state election, 2012 Category:May 2012 in Germany Category:2010s in North Rhine-Westphalia