2014 Victorian state election

Australian state election July 2014 July 2020 2014 Victorian state election Victoria parliamentary no 2010 Victorian state election 2010 2018 Victorian state election 2018 All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative AssemblyAll 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council45 seats needed for a majority 29 November 2014 170x170px Daniel Andrews 3 December 2010 Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch) Mulgrave 1,278,436 38.10% 1.84% 36.25%, 43 seats 2 47 4 170x170px Denis Napthine 6 March 2013 Liberal–National coalition Liberal/National coalition South-West Coast 1,409,282 42.00% 2.78% 44.78%, 45 seats 1 38 7 10c25b 170x170px Greg Barber 25 November 2006 Australian Greens Victoria MLC for Northern Metropolitan 385,190 11.48% 0.27% 11.21%, 0 seats 2 2 2 TPP 51.99% 48.01% TPP swing 3.57% 3.57% 2014 Victorian state election.svg 400px Results in each electorate. Premier Denis Napthine Liberal/National coalition Premier after election Daniel Andrews Australian Labor Party (Victorian Branch) #Opinion polling The 2014 Victorian state election, held on Saturday, 29 November 2014, was for the 58th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly and 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Coalition minority government, led by Liberal Party leader and Premier Denis Napthine and National Party leader and Deputy Premier Peter Ryan, was defeated by the centre-left Labor Party opposition, led by Daniel Andrews. The Greens won two lower house seats, their first Legislative Assembly seats in a Victorian state election, whilst increasing their share of upper house seats. The new Andrews Ministry was sworn in on 4 December 2014. Voting is compulsory in Victoria. Elections for the Legislative Assembly use instant-runoff voting (called preferential voting in Australia) in single-member electorates (called districts). Elections for the Legislative Council use partial proportional representation, using single transferable vote (also called preferential voting) in multi-member electorates (called regions). Members of the Legislative Council are elected from eight electoral regions each returning five members, making the quota for election in each region 16.67%. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC). The election marked the first time since 1955 that a Victorian state government had been defeated after only one parliamentary term. Furthermore, the Nationals were reduced to a total of ten seats in the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council, one short of official status in the legislature.Gordon Josh Nationals could lose party status after disastrous showing http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/nationals-could-lose-party-status-after-disastrous-showing-20141130-11x412.html 1 December 2014 The Age Melbourne 1 December 2014 Following the election, both Napthine and Ryan resigned as leaders of the Liberal and National parties, respectively. Key dates Terms are fixed at four years unless dissolved earlier by the Governor. The election occurred in line with the fixed-term provisions laid out in the Electoral Act 2002.http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/consol_act/ea2002103/s63.html Section 63 Electoral Act 2002 6 September 2010 Key dates for the election were:Victorian Electoral Commission: "Becoming a State election candidate", retrieved 11 November 2014 4 November: Writs issued by the Governor of Victoria 5 November: Opening of nominations for all candidates 13 November: Close of nominations for party candidates 14 November: Close of nominations for independents 29 November: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm) Background Pre-election pendulum for the 2014 Victorian state election The Coalition won the 2010 Victorian state election, winning 45 seats in the 88-member lower house, a swing of 12 seats, defeating the 11-year Labor government which won 43 seats. Labor suffered a swing of 5.96 percent, a larger swing than the 1992 landslide that brought the Jeff Kennett-led Coalition to power. This led Paul Austin of the Sydney Morning Herald to speculate that Labor was headed for a long period in the political wilderness.http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/the-figures-point-to-electoral-wilderness-for-victorian-labor-20101215-18y4a.html The figures point to electoral wilderness for Victorian Labor Austin Paul 16 December 2010 The Sydney Morning Herald Fairfax Media 2 September 2011 However, by 2012, Labor had gradually whittled away a large Coalition advantage in opinion polling. By the time the writs were dropped, Labor had been leading most opinion polls for almost two years, though Andrews consistently trailed as preferred premier. With a Coalition MP as Speaker, the government operated with a one-seat margin of 44 seats, until the resignation of Geoff Shaw, the member for Frankston, from the Liberal Party on 6 March 2013.Government may be in balance as MP quits: report http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/government-may-be-in-balance-as-mp-quits-report-20130306-2fk80.html 6 March 2013 The Age 6 March 2013 Melbourne This meant the government had only 43 votes on the floor of the parliament, equal to Labor's total. Partly due to Shaw's defection, Premier Ted Baillieu resigned later on 6 March and was succeeded as Liberal leader and Premier by Ports Minister Denis Napthine. Shaw initially guaranteed the Napthine Government support on matters of supply and confidence, allowing it to stay in office as a minority government, although later statements indicated that he had rescinded that earlier statement and was considering assisting an ALP Opposition vote of no confidence in the Napthine administration. If this had happened, his actions could have precipitated an early state election.Cook, Henrietta Willingham, Richard Geoff Shaw will support no confidence motion against Napthine government The Age Melbourne 3 June 2014 http://www.theage.com.au/victoria-geoff-shaw-will-support-no-confidence-motion-against-napthine-government-20140603-39gsu.html 4 June 2014Hawthorne, Mark Willingham, Richard The Age Melbourne The call that did the deed 5 June 2014 http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/the-call-that-did-the-deed-20140604-39jh6.html The government operated with a two-seat margin in the 40-member upper house where all members are up for re-election every term, with 21 Coalition, 16 Labor and 3 Greens members.http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2010/guide/lc-results.htm Upper house summary ABC News Australia 1 February 2012Sheales, Ryan http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/14/3092639.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20101228103058/http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/14/3092639.htm dead 28 December 2010 Coalition wins Upper House majority ABC News Australia 14 December 2010 1 February 2012 Labor retained seats at the Broadmeadows, Niddrie, Melbourne and Lyndhurst by-elections. Casual vacancies were created in various Legislative Council seats by the departures of Labor MPs Martin Pakula (Western Metropolitan—who moved to the Legislative Assembly seat of Lyndhurst)http://www.brimbankweekly.com.au/story/1370855/martin-pakula-to-stand-for-lyndhurst/?nav=Y2F0X2lkLzEz https://web.archive.org/web/20131227214802/http://www.brimbankweekly.com.au/story/1370855/martin-pakula-to-stand-for-lyndhurst/?nav=Y2F0X2lkLzEz dead 27 December 2013 Martin Pakula to stand for Lyndhurst Brimbank Weekly 18 March 2013 16 February 2014 and Candy Broad (Northern Victoria), and Liberal MPs Donna PetrovichWillingham, Richard http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberal-candidate-in-key-seat-sparks-ire-over-house-claims-20130820-2s9ft.html Liberal candidate in key seat sparks ire over house claims The Sydney Morning Herald 28 March 2012 16 February 2014 (Northern Victoria) and Philip DavisCook, Henrietta http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberal-mp-philip-davis-resigns-from-parliament-20131010-2v9i6.html Liberal MP Philip Davis resigns from parliament The Age Melbourne 10 October 2013 16 February 2014 (Eastern Victoria). Their seats were filled by Cesar Melhem,Herald Sun Melbourne http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/union-official-cesar-melhem-enters-state-parliament/story-e6frf7kx-1226635908276 Union official Cesar Melhem enters State Parliament Marg Lewis, Amanda Millar,http://www.newspaperhouse.com.au/index.php/news/item/926-new-liberal-member-endorsed New Liberal member endorsed Newspaper House 27 June 2023 and Andrew Ronaldshttp://www.latrobevalleyexpress.com.au/story/1959843/liberals-preselect-davis-replacement Liberals preselect Davis replacement Latrobe Valley Express respectively, each being appointed by a joint sitting of Parliament. Registered parties Twenty-one parties were registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), and all fielded candidates at the 2014 state election:https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/CandidatesAndParties/CurrentRegisteredParties.html Currently registered parties Victorian Electoral Commission 14 September 2014 9 January 2019 https://web.archive.org/web/20190109155033/https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/CandidatesAndParties/CurrentRegisteredParties.html dead Animal Justice Party Australian Christians Australian Country Alliance Australian Cyclists Party Labor Party Australian Sex Party Democratic Labor Party of Australiaregistered federally as the Democratic Labour Party Family First Party Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Party National Party Palmer United Party People Power Victoria – No Smart Meters Rise Up Australia Party Shooters and Fishers Party Socialist Alliance The Australian Greens The Basics Rock'n'Roll Party Voice for the West Voluntary Euthanasia Party Vote 1 Local Jobs Additionally, two other parties applied for registration prior to the election,https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Media/PoliticalPartiesApplyForRegistration.html https://web.archive.org/web/20141004183939/http://vec.vic.gov.au/Media/PoliticalPartiesApplyForRegistration.html dead 4 October 2014 Political parties apply for registration Victorian Electoral Commissionhttp://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/gotyes-band-among-minor-parties-battling-it-out-in-victorian-poll-20140920-10jr1v.html Gotye's band among minor parties battling it out in Victorian poll The Age Melbourne 20 September 2014 but failed to achieve registration by the deadline: No East West Link and Save the Planet. Redistribution A redistribution of Victoria's state electoral boundaries took place from 2012 to 2013. The final boundaries were gazetted on 17 October 2013 and were used for the 2014 state election.Green, Antony Antony Green http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2013/redistribution.htm 2013 Victorian Redistribution ABC Elections 9 June 2023 Fifteen electorates were abolished, namely Ballarat East (Labor), Ballarat West (Labor), Benalla (Nationals), Clayton (Labor), Derrimut (Labor), Doncaster (Liberal), Keilor (Labor), Kilsyth (Liberal), Lyndhurst (Labor), Mitcham (Liberal), Murray Valley (Nationals), Rodney (Nationals), Scoresby (Liberal), Seymour (Liberal) and Swan Hill (Nationals). The fifteen new seats are Buninyong (Labor, largely replacing Ballarat East), Clarinda (Labor, largely replacing Clayton), Croydon (Liberal, largely replacing Kilsyth), Eildon (Liberal, combining sections of abolished Seymour with areas of existing Gembrook), Euroa (Nationals, largely replacing Benalla), Keysborough (Labor, largely replacing Lyndhurst), Murray Plains (Nationals, largely replacing Swan Hill and parts of Rodney), Ovens Valley (Nationals, largely replacing Murray Valley), Ringwood (Liberal, largely replacing Mitcham), Rowville (Liberal, largely replacing Scoresby), St Albans (Labor, largely replacing Derrimut), Sunbury (Labor, created from parts of Macedon and Yuroke), Sydenham (Labor, largely replacing Keilor), Wendouree (Liberal, largely replacing Ballarat West), and Werribee (Labor, formed from parts of Lara and Tarneit). Five electorates changed parties notionally with the new boundaries, including Wendouree, a notional Liberal seat created from the Labor seat of Ballarat West. According to ABC psephologist Antony Green, the Labor-held seats of Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon and Yan Yean became notionally Liberal. This meant that Labor needed a notional five-seat swing to win government. Issues Much of the Labor campaign was focused on the Napthine Government's A$18 billion East West Link toll road project, which Labor opposed, and said it would halt if it won power. In early November Prime Minister Tony Abbott, in one of his few Victorian appearances for the Liberals during the campaign, described the election as "a referendum on the East West Link".Ainsworth Michelle Flying visit Sunday Herald Sun Melbourne 8 9 November 2014 Public transport also featured strongly during the campaign, with the parties presenting rival inner-city rail tunnel projects and competing plans to remove railway level crossings to ease road congestion.Election scorecard The Age Melbourne 20–21 28 November 2014 With unemployment at its highest level since 2001, jobs and the economy became a key issue and both sides promised major job creation schemes: the Coalition said it would create 200,000 jobs over five years and Labor said it would create 100,000 jobs within two years. Other major issues raised during the election were the long-running Ambulance Victoria industrial dispute and slow ambulance response times, urban planning laws, education and law and order. Both major parties promised to build new and bigger hospitals. Labor election advertising aimed to capitalise on the unpopularity of Australia's Liberal Prime Minister and unpopular federal Liberal policies, while much of the Coalition advertising depicted Andrews as a leader with close ties to the Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union.Dangerous time to change Herald Sun Melbourne 10 http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/victorian-election-2014-dangerous-time-to-change/story-fni0ffsx-1227137555015 28 November 2014Gordon Michael The Abbott factor and Napthine's perfect storm The Age Melbourne http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-abbott-factor-and-napthines-perfect-storm-20141128-11w67v.html 28 November 2014 On environmental issues neither the Coalition nor Labor presented comprehensive policies, although Labor promised to repeal some of the Coalition's legislation, such as on cattle grazing in the Alpine National Park and leases in national parks. A key topic was the proposal for a new Great Forest National Park, that was opposed by the Coalition and was not supported by Labor. The Greens supported the new park, as well as stronger action on climate change and phase-out of coal fired power stations.Wescott, Geoffrey: "Victorians short-changed on environmental policy" in The Conversation, 25 November 2014 The only state leaders debate between Napthine and Andrews was held on 19 November on the pay TV Sky News Australia. Only pay television subscribers could watch it. Candidates and retiring MPs Candidates of the 2014 Victorian state election As the close of nominations on 14 November 2014, there were a total of 896 candidates in the election (a 26 per cent increase to the 711 candidates in the 2010 election). There were 545 candidates contesting the 88 seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly (up from 501, an 8.6 per cent increase); and 351 candidates contesting the 40 seats in the Legislative Council (up from 206, a 68 per cent increase). Labor and the Greens contested every electorate. There were 92 candidates from the Liberal–National Coalition for the lower house, with four "three-cornered contests" where both Liberal and National candidates contested the same seat (Buninyong, Eildon, Euroa and Ripon).Green Antony 2014 Victorian Election - Summary of Nominations http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/11/2014-victorian-election-summary-of-nominations.html 15 November 2014 Victoria Votes 2014 ABC News 14 November 2014 Retiring MPs Members who chose not to renominate are as follows: Labor Ann Barker MLA (Oakleigh) – announced 25 November 2013http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/another-victorian-labor-mp-quits/story-fni0xqi4-1226767767622 Another Victorian Labor MP quits Herald Sun Melbourne Liz Beattie MLA (Yuroke) – announced 25 November 2013https://twitter.com/rwillingham/status/404822874835283968 Twitter / rwillingham: And another Labor retirement Twitter.com 24 November 2013 16 February 2014 Christine Campbell MLA (Pascoe Vale) – announced 13 November 2013Campbell, Christine http://www.christinecampbell.com.au/media-releases/life-after-parliament/ Life after parliament Christine Campbell 13 November 2013 16 February 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20140203232736/http://www.christinecampbell.com.au/media-releases/life-after-parliament/ 3 February 2014 dead Joanne Duncan MLA (Macedon) – announced 4 November 2013https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/labor-mp-joanne-duncan-to-resign-from-parliament/news-story/05d00c4d589f67c5b4154e9cee4bfdf8 Labor MP Joanne Duncan to resign from Parliament news.com.au 4 November 2013 4 November 2013 Joe Helper MLA (Ripon) – announced 3 December 2012http://www.stockandland.com.au/news/agriculture/general/news/helper-plans-life-after-politics/2637011.aspx Helper plans life after politics Stock & Land 3 December 2012 Dalgleish, Cassandra 11 October 2013 Justin Madden MLA (Essendon) – announced 15 November 2013Willingham, Richard http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/justin-madden-announces-retirement-from-politics-20131115-2xkpp.html Justin Madden announces retirement from politics The Age Melbourne 28 March 2012 16 February 2014 John Pandazopoulos MLA (Dandenong) – announced 26 November 2013http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/south-east/ironman-mp-john-pandazopoulos-announces-he-wont-recontest-the-seat-of-dandenong/story-fngnvmhm-1226769565954 Herald Sun Melbourne Ironman MP John Pandazopoulos announces he won't recontest the seat of Dandenong Ian Trezise MLA (Geelong) – announced 3 February 2014Dundas Greg http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/news/trezise-calls-time-geelong-up-for-grabs-in-state-election/story-fnjuhori-1226817044107 Trezise calls time, Geelong up for grabs in state election Geelong Advertiser 3 February 2014 16 February 2014 Kaye Darveniza MLC (Northern Victoria) – announced 29 November 2013Willingham, Richard http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labors-upper-house-preselection-will-bypass-rank-and-file-members-20131128-2yejb.html Labor's upper house preselection will bypass rank and file members The Age Melbourne 28 March 2012 16 February 2014 John Lenders MLC (Southern Metropolitan) – announced 18 November 2013https://twitter.com/bellfrances/status/402209117395107840 Twitter / bellfrances: Former Labor Treasurer Twitter.com 17 November 2013 16 February 2014 Marg Lewis MLC (Northern Victoria) – appointed to a casual vacancy but did not contest preselectionhttp://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/retired-principal-and-labor-favourite-up-for-a-90000-windfall/story-fni0fit3-1226968002242 Retired principal and Labor favourite up for a $90,000 windfall Ainsworth Michelle Herald Sun Melbourne 26 June 2014 Johan Scheffer MLC (Eastern Victoria) Matt Viney MLC (Eastern Victoria) – announced 15 November 2013 Liberal Ted Baillieu MLA (Hawthorn) – announced 22 August 2014http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-22/former-victorian-premier-ted-baillieu-resigns/5689476 Former Victorian premier Ted Baillieu resigns ABC News Australia 22 August 2014 Nicholas Kotsiras MLA (Bulleen) – announced 12 January 2014http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/multicultural-affairs-minister-nicholas-kotsiras-announces-his-retirement-from-politics/story-fni0fit3-1226800004393 Herald Sun Melbourne Multicultural affairs minister Nicholas Kotsiras announces his retirement from politics Andrew McIntosh MLA (Kew) – announced 17 December 2013Willingham, Richard http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberal-mp-andrew-mcintosh-to-retire-from-state-parliament-20131217-2zi0u.html Liberal MP Andrew McIntosh to retire from state parliament The Age 28 March 2012 16 February 2014 Melbourne Ken Smith MLA (Bass) – announced 13 January 2014Willingham, Richard http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorian-parliament-speaker-ken-smith-to-retire-20140113-30pb1.html Victorian parliament Speaker Ken Smith to retire The Age 28 March 2012 16 February 2014 Melbourne Andrea Coote MLC (Southern Metropolitan) – announced 19 January 2014http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-19/long-serving-victorian-liberal-frontbencher-andrea-coote-announ/5207102 Long-serving Victorian Liberal frontbencher Andrea Coote announces resignation ABC News Australia 19 January 2014 16 February 2014 David Koch MLC (Western Victoria) – announced 14 March 2014http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/liberal-infighting-threatens-napthine-20140314-34qv5.html Liberal infighting threatens Napthine The Age 14 March 2014 14 March 2014 Melbourne Jan Kronberg MLC (Eastern Metropolitan) – announced 19 March 2014http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mary-wooldridges-preselection-chances-improve-as-eastern-metropolitan-mp-jan-kronberg-retires-20140319-351hp.html Mary Wooldridge's preselection chances improve as Eastern Metropolitan MP Jan Kronberg retires The Age 19 March 2014 19 March 2014 Melbourne 20 March 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20140320161733/http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/mary-wooldridges-preselection-chances-improve-as-eastern-metropolitan-mp-jan-kronberg-retires-20140319-351hp.html dead National Hugh Delahunty MLA (Lowan) – announced 10 February 2014http://www.3wm.com.au/news-sport/article/140210/hugh-delahunty/41#.Uvfp-fmSxWh Hugh Delahunty Retiring 3wm.com.au 16 February 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20140222162340/http://www.3wm.com.au/news-sport/article/140210/hugh-delahunty/41#.Uvfp-fmSxWh 22 February 2014 dead Jeanette Powell MLA (Shepparton) – announced 8 February 2014AAP http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/02/07/vic-mp-powell-retires-shepparton-seat Vic MP Powell retires from Shepparton seat SBS News 7 February 2014 16 February 2014 Bill Sykes MLA (Benalla) – announced 9 January 2014Kotsios Natalie http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2013105/benalla-mp-bill-sykes-calls-it-a-day/ Benalla MP Bill Sykes calls it a day The Border Mail Albury-Wodonga 19 February 2014 16 February 2014 Opinion polling width:650px Primary vote opinion polling in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.chart Primary vote opinion polling in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.tab 650px width:650px TPP opinion polling in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.chart TPP opinion polling in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.tab 650px Voting intention +Legislative Assembly (lower house) pollingDateFirmPrimary voteTPP voteLIBNATALPGRNOTHL/NPALP29 Nov 2014 election36.46%5.53%38.1%11.48%8.42%48.01%51.99% 25–28 Nov 2014IpsosGordon Josh Victorian election 2014: result likely to come down to the wire http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-election-2014-result-likely-to-come-down-to-the-wire-20141128-11wb6b.html 28 November 2014 The Age 28 November 2014 Melbourne42%*35%15%8%48%52% 24–27 Nov 2014Newspoll36%4%39%12%9% 48%52% 27 Nov 2014ReachTEL7 News - Victorian poll - 27 November 2014 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-victorian-poll-27november2014 ReachTEL 28 November 2014 28 November 2014 5 December 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20141205051910/https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-victorian-poll-27november2014 dead34.5%5.2%38.3%13.5%8.5%48%52% 26–27 Nov 2014Roy MorganALP favoured to win Victorian Election but late surge to Liberals continues. A close election will be decided on minor party preferences http://www.roymorgan.com.au/findings/5959-morgan-poll-victorian-state-election-november-28-2014-201411271232 Roy Morgan Research 27 November 2014 28 November 2014 5 December 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20141205053714/http://www.roymorgan.com.au/findings/5959-morgan-poll-victorian-state-election-november-28-2014-201411271232 dead44%*36%13.5%6.5%50%50% 25–26 Nov 2014GalaxyVoters united in Link support http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-election-2014-voters-united-in-link-support/story-fnocxssc-1227137560265 Herald Sun 28 November 2014 28 November 201440%*39%13%8%48%52% 7–24 Nov 2014EssentialEssential Report - Victorian State Election http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/11/Essential-Report_141125_Victoria.pdf Essential Research 28 November 2014 28 November 2014 5 December 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20141205131526/http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/11/Essential-Report_141125_Victoria.pdf dead40%*39%13%8%47%53% 21–24 Nov 2014Roy MorganLiberals fight-back in Victoria with a week to go as ALP & Greens drop http://www.roymorgan.com.au/findings/5944-morgan-poll-victorian-voting-intention-november-24-2014-201411240214 Roy Morgan Research 24 November 2014 24 November 201439.5%*33.5%17.5%9.5%48%52% 19–20 Nov 2014Roy MorganDan Andrews set to be new Victorian Premier in a week's time http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5939-victorian-voting-intention-november-21-2014-201411210056 Roy Morgan Research 21 November 2014 21 November 201435%*35.5%19.5%10%45%55% 18–19 Nov 2014Galaxy18/19 Nov 2014: Labor maintains lead http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/1819-nov-2014/ Galaxy Research 21 November 2014 November 201435%5%39%13%8%48%52% 7–10 Nov 2014Roy MorganALP increases lead and set to win Victorian Election with 3 weeks to go http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5919-morgan-poll-victorian-voting-intention-november-10-2014-201411100547 Roy Morgan Research 15 November 2014 10 November 201438%*36%18.5%7.5%46.5%53.5% 6–9 Nov 2014IpsosGordon Josh Victorian election: Poll shows Napthine government remains in losing position http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-election-poll-shows-napthine-government-remains-in-losing-position-20141113-11m6uz.html 14 November 2014 The Age Melbourne 14 November 201439%*39%16%8%44%56% 27–30 Oct 2014Newspoll35%4%41%13%7% 46%54% 24–27 Oct 2014Roy MorganALP set to win Victorian Election with a month to go http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5896-victorian-state-voting-intention-october-2014-201410270725 Roy Morgan Research 4 November 2014 27 October 201437.5%*34%18.5%10%47.5%52.5% 23–26 Oct 2014IpsosGordon Josh Victoria state election poll shows Labor leading Napthine government http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victoria-state-election-poll-shows-labor-leading-napthine-government-20141029-11dqr1.html 4 November 2014 The Age Melbourne 30 October 201439%*37%17%9%44%56% 23 Oct 2014ReachTEL7 News - Victorian poll - 23 October 2014 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-victorian-poll-23october2014 ReachTEL 4 November 2014 24 October 201434.7%3.9%37.5%13.3%10.5%47%53% 22–24 Oct 2014GalaxyLABOR MAINTAINS LEAD IN VICTORIA http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/22-24-october/ Galaxy Research 15 November 2014 October 201435%5%38%13%9%48%52% 26–29 Sep 2014Roy MorganALP in 'Box Seat' for Victorian State Election. Coalition still ahead in NSW & Queensland http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5836-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-nsw-vic-qld-qa-sa-tas-201410010501 Roy Morgan Research 15 November 2014 1 October 201437.5%*34%18%10.5%46%54% 14–15 Aug 2014Galaxy35%5%38%12%10%48%52% Jul–Aug 2014Newspoll32%3%37%16%12% 45%55% May–Jun 2014Newspoll33%4%38%16%9% 46%54% 26–27 Feb 2014Galaxy37%5%39%12%7%49%51% Jan–Feb 2014Newspoll35%3%39%13%10% 47%53% 21 Nov 2013ReachTEL7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - November 2013 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-november-2013 ReachTEL 15 November 2014 25 November 201339.1%4.3%35.8%11%9.9%— Sep–Oct 2013Newspoll36%3%38%14%9% 47%53% Jul–Aug 2013Newspoll37%4%38%13%8% 49%51% May–Jun 2013Newspoll40%3%35%12%10%51% 49% 30 May 2013ReachTEL7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - May 2013 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-may-2013 ReachTEL 15 November 2014 3 June 201337.9%5.7%32.5%13.6%10.4%— 12 Apr 2013ReachTEL7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - April 2013 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-april-2013 ReachTEL 15 November 2014 14 April 201345.2%4.3%35.3%11.5%3.8%— Mar–Apr 2013Newspoll38%5%37%12%8%50%50% 7 Mar 2013ReachTEL7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - March 2013 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-march-2013 ReachTEL 15 November 2014 8 March 201340.1%4.8%36.9%12.3%6%— 6 March 2013 Denis Napthine becomes Liberal leader and Victorian Premier 22 Feb 2013ReachTEL7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - February 2013 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-february-2013 ReachTEL 15 November 2014 24 February 2013 https://web.archive.org/web/20141129024726/https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-february-2013 29 November 2014 dead37.6%6.6%34.9%12.6%8.2%— Jan–Feb 2013Newspoll35%4%38%13%10% 47%53% 25 Jan 2013ReachTEL7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - January 2013 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-january-2013 https://web.archive.org/web/20130130201009/http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-january-2013 dead 30 January 2013 ReachTEL 15 November 2014 27 January 201334.4%3.5%36.8%12.4%13.1%— Nov–Dec 2012Newspoll33%3%38%16%10% 45%55% Sep–Oct 2012Newspoll35%2%41%13%9% 45%55% Jul–Aug 2012Newspoll37%4%35%13%11%50%50% 5–13 June 2012Roy MorganVictorian Coalition Lead Slightly Reduced - L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%) http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/finding-4795-201302122340 Roy Morgan Research 15 November 2014 15 June 201244.5%*33.5%15.5%6.5%52%48% Mar–Apr 2012Newspoll37%5%32%17%9%51% 49% 20–28 Mar 2012Roy Morgan45.5%*35.5%12.5%6.5%53%47% Jan–Feb 2012Newspoll42%3%33%14%8%53% 47% Nov–Dec 2011Newspoll40%3%34%15%8%51% 49% Sep–Oct 2011Newspoll43%4%30%15%8%55% 45% Jul–Aug 2011Newspoll44%4%28%15%9%57% 43% 5–10 Apr 2011Roy Morgan48%*31%11.5%9.5%57%43% 3 December 2010 Daniel Andrews becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition 30 Nov – 1 Dec 2010Roy Morgan46%*32%14%8%57%43%27 Nov 2010 election38.0%6.7%36.3%11.2%7.8%51.6%48.4% 23–25 Nov 2010Newspoll40%5%33%15%7%51.1% 48.9% 22–25 Nov 2010Roy Morgan44.5%*35.5%13%7%51%49%* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here https://web.archive.org/web/20180323020136/http://polling.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=12 23 March 2018 Better Premier and satisfaction polling left Graphical summary of polling for Better Premier Beter Premier opinion polling in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.chart Beter Premier opinion polling in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.tab 650px left Graphical summary of approval ratings for Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine as Premiers Approval ratings for Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine as Premiers in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.chart Approval ratings for Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine as Premiers in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.tab 650px left Graphical summary of approval ratings for Daniel Andrews as Leader of the Opposition Approval ratings for Daniel Andrews as Leader of the Opposition in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.chart Approval ratings for Daniel Andrews as Leader of the Opposition in advance of the 2014 Victorian state election.tab 650px + Better Premier and satisfaction polling*DateFirmBetter PremierNapthineAndrews Napthine Andrews Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied 25–28 Nov 2014Ipsos44% 42%49% 40% 42%43% 24–27 Nov 2014Newspoll41% 37% 41%45% 38%43% 26–27 Nov 2014Roy Morgan50.5% 49.5% not asked 25–26 Nov 2014Galaxy41% 38% not asked 21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan51.5% 48.5% not asked 19–20 Nov 2014Roy Morgan 47.5%52.5% not asked 18–19 Nov 2014Galaxy42% 30% not asked 7–10 Nov 2014Roy Morgan51.5% 48.5% not asked 6–9 Nov 2014Ipsos42% 39%46% 37%40% 37% 27–30 Oct 2014Newspoll47% 33%46% 41% 36%45% 24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan52% 48% not asked 23–26 Oct 2014Ipsos45% 36%47% 38% 37%42% 22–24 Oct 2014Galaxy43% 27% not asked 26–29 Sep 2014Roy Morgan51% 49% not asked 14–15 Aug 2014Galaxy41% 33% not asked Jul–Aug 2014Newspoll41% 31% 40%43% 32%41% May–Jun 2014Newspoll42% 29%44% 40% 35%37% 26–27 Feb 2014Galaxy40% 32% not asked Jan–Feb 2014Newspoll39% 28%43% 35% 32%33% 21–Nov 2013ReachTEL† 47.5%52.5% not asked Sep–Oct 2013Newspoll41% 27%42% 36%35% 31% Jul–Aug 2013Newspoll47% 25%53% 31%38% 32% May–Jun 2013Newspoll49% 26%53% 26%35% 34% 30–May 2013ReachTEL†51.6% 48.4% not asked 12–Apr 2013ReachTEL†52% 48% not asked Mar–Apr 2013Newspoll43% 24%50% 19%42% 28% 7–Mar 2013ReachTEL† 46.5%53.5% not asked 6 March 2013 Napthine replaces BaillieuBaillieuAndrewsBaillieuAndrews 22–Feb 2013ReachTEL† 41.3%58.7% not asked Jan–Feb 2013Newspoll38% 31% 31%53% 30%36% 25–Jan 2013ReachTEL† 44.4%55.6% not asked Nov–Dec 2012Newspoll39% 30% 33%48% 32%34% Sep–Oct 2012Newspoll39% 30% 31%53% 29%36% Jul–Aug 2012Newspoll40% 26% 32%50% 28%36% 5–13 June 2012Roy Morgan41% 33.5% 29%53.5% 28%35% Mar–Apr 2012Newspoll46% 23% 36%45% 28%35% 20–28 Mar 2012Roy Morgan53.5% 22%40% 38% 20%36% Jan–Feb 2012Newspoll51% 19%41% 38% 23%36% Nov–Dec 2011Newspoll53% 18%49% 33% 30%32% Sep–Oct 2011Newspoll56% 19%52% 29% 29%33% Jul–Aug 2011Newspoll57% 16%52% 29% 27%34% 5–10 Apr 2011Roy Morgan60% 14%50.5% 23% 25%26.5% 3 December 2010 Andrews replaces BrumbyBaillieuBrumbyBaillieuBrumby 30 Nov – 1 Dec 2010Roy Morgan48.5% 25.5%40% 13% 30%31%27 Nov 2010 election–––––– 23–25 Nov 2010Newspoll 38%48%44%44% 38%52% 23–25 Nov 2010Roy Morgan 39%43.5%40% 39% 34%46.5%* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".† Participants were forced to choose.Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here https://web.archive.org/web/20180323020136/http://polling.newspoll.com.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=12 23 March 2018 Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points. Newspaper endorsements Dailies   Sundays Newspaper Endorsement Newspaper Endorsement The Age Liberal Party of Australiahttp://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/coalition-has-the-best-policies-for-the-state-20141127-11vjq3.html Coalition has the best policies The Age 28 November 2014 28 November 2014 Melbourne The Sunday Age Australian Labor Partyhttps://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/change-is-needed-after-tawdry-years-20141127-11uqwa.html Change is needed after tawdry years The Sunday Age 23 November 2014 23 November 2014 Melbourne The Australian Liberal Party of Australiahttps://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/mediocre-contest-provides-no-imperative-for-change/news-story/8a1bcf2a24e89da0aa29e54752d57b98 Mediocre contest provides no imperative for change The Australian 28 November 2014 28 November 2014 2015-01-23 https://web.archive.org/web/20150123065601/http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/editorials/mediocre-contest-provides-no-imperative-for-change/story-e6frg71x-1227137492707 subscription live Sydney The Australian Financial Review Liberal Party of Australiahttp://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labor_not_fit_for_return_in_victoria_OylveqOVCUtExItqp2YmtJ Labor not fit for return in Victoria The Australian Financial Review 27 November 2014 28 November 2014 Herald Sun Liberal Party of Australiahttp://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/victorian-election-2014-dangerous-time-to-change/story-fni0ffsx-1227137555015 Dangerous time to change Herald Sun Melbourne 28 November 2014 27 November 2014 Sunday Herald Sun Liberal Party of Australiahttp://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/its-a-matter-of-trust/story-fni0ffsx-1227131718837 It's a matter of trust Sunday Herald Sun Melbourne 23 November 2014 23 November 2014 Results Legislative Assembly thumb|Winning party by electorate. Results of the 2014 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly) Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2014–2018 thumb|250px|Composition of the Legislative Assembly following the 2014 electionGovernment Australian Labor Party darkgray Labor (47) Opposition Liberal Party of Australia darkgray Liberal (30) green darkgray National (8) Crossbench #10c25b darkgray Greens (2) #b3b3b3 darkgray Independent (1) File:2014 VIC Legislative Assembly.svg 3806301 184838 0.06 0.26 #f00011 Labor 1278436 1.84 47 4* #080cab Liberal 1223663 1.57 30 5 #10c25b Greens 385240 0.27 2 2 #008000 Nationals 185619 1.21 8 2 Independents 112289 0.74 1 1 #556b2f Country Alliance 43052 0.07 0 #00ccff Family First 37194 1.18 0 #ffdc00 Christians 26560 New 0 New #0080ff Rise Up Australia 20795 New 0 New #186596 Voice for the West 16584 New 0 New #FFBF00 Sex Party 8930 0.28 0 #a52a2a Animal Justice 7778 New 0 New #ffb536 Democratic Labour 2799 0.81 0 Shooters and Fishers 2622 0.08 #990000 Socialist Alliance 1728 0 #f08653 People Power Victoria 1375 New 0 New #000000 The Basics Rock 'n' Roll 1043 New 0 New y Two-party-preferred #f00011 Labor 1745194 3.57 #00557c Liberal/National 1611715 3.57 *Labor also retained four of the five Labor seats which were made notionally Liberal by the 2013 redistribution. Legislative Council Results of the 2014 Victorian state election (Legislative Council) 400px|thumb|Upper house seat outcome of the 2014 Victorian state election File:2014 VIC Legislative Council.svg 3806301 121497 0.08 0.05 #f00011 Labor 1143883 1.90 14 2 #080cab Liberal (metropolitan) 711718 3.83 10 2 #00557c Liberal/National (joint ticket) 523510 3.20 #080cab Liberal (country) 4 2 #008000 National 2 1 #10c25b Greens 367625 1.25 5 2 #fec327 Liberal Democrats 104516 3.06 0 #ffbf00 Sex Party 89748 0.71 1 1 #ffb536 Democratic Labour 79308 0.02 1 1 #ffed00 Palmer United 66679 New 0 New #00ccff Family First 62431 1.03 0 #a52a2a Animal Justice 58133 New 0 New Shooters and Fishers 56536 0.08 2 2 #ffdc00 Christians 35164 New 0 New #556b2f Country Alliance 23164 0.97 0 #3a3a3e Cyclists 20703 New 0 New #0080ff Rise Up Australia 17674 New 0 New #201b5b Voluntary Euthanasia 16772 New 0 New #f08653 People Power Victoria 12022 New 0 New #186596 Voice for the West 11064 New 0 New #0000cd Vote 1 Local Jobs 7108 New 1 New #000000 The Basics Rock 'n' Roll 6340 New 0 New Independents 4573 0.20 0 Legislative Council seats auto Legislative Council Region Seats held Eastern Metropolitan Region           Eastern Victoria Region           Northern Metropolitan Region           Northern Victoria Region           South Eastern Metropolitan Region           Southern Metropolitan Region           Western Metropolitan Region           Western Victoria Region           5em   Labor   Liberal   National   Green   Shooters, Fishers and Farmers   Sex Party   Democratic Labour   Vote 1 Local Jobs Seats changing hands Following the election, the seats of Frankston and Prahran were initially too close to call, with around a hundred votes separating candidates.Battersby Lucy Willingham Richard Victorian state election vote count: Labor claims Bentleigh but Frankston, Prahran still too close to call http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/victorian-state-election-vote-count-labor-claims-bentleigh-but-frankston-prahran-still-too-close-to-call-20141205-120utx.html 5 December 2014 The Age 5 December 2014 Prahran was a three-way contest between Labor, Liberal, and the Greens, and this seat proved to be the tightest contest among all the lower house seats.Carey Adam Jacks Timna Voters of Prahran and Frankston still on the edge of their seats http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-state-election-2014/voters-of-prahran-and-frankston-still-on-the-edge-of-their-seats-20141130-11x2qp.html 4 December 2014 The Age 30 November 2014 The VEC declared Prahran had been won by the Greens on 9 December, whereby the Greens overtook the ALP from third place, to defeat the Liberal incumbent in the final distribution of preferences. The Greens' win was confirmed in the recount held the following day.Cook Henrietta Greens win seat of Prahran in Victorian Parliament http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/greens-win-seat-of-prahran-in-victorian-parliament-20141209-123ne9.html 9 December 2014 The Age 9 December 2014 +Seats changing handsChanging seats http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/results/changing-seats/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 13 December 2014 Seat Pre-2014 Swing Post-2014 Party Member Margin* Margin Member Party Bentleigh Liberal Elizabeth Miller 0.9 1.7 0.8 Nick Staikos Labor Carrum Liberal Donna Bauer 0.3 1.0 0.7 Sonya Kilkenny Labor Frankston Independent Geoff Shaw 0.4 0.9 0.5 Paul Edbrooke Labor Melbourne  Labor Jennifer Kanis 4.7 7.1 2.4 Ellen Sandell Greens  Mordialloc Liberal Lorraine Wreford 1.5 3.6 2.1 Tim Richardson Labor Prahran Liberal Clem Newton-Brown 4.7 5.1 0.4 Sam Hibbins Greens Shepparton National Jeanette Powell 25.9 28.5 2.6 Suzanna Sheed Independent* This margin is notional, being calculated by Antony Green to take account of the 2013 redistribution. As such, it may vary from 2010 election results. The seats of Bellarine, Monbulk, Ripon, and Yan Yean were won by Labor at the 2010 election, but redistributions in 2013 made them notionally Liberal seats.Bellarine - Victorian Election 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/bell/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 6 December 2014 2014Monbulk - Victorian Election 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/monb/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 6 December 2014 2014Ripon - Victorian Election 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/ripo/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 6 December 2014 2014Yan Yean - Victorian Election 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/yany/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 6 December 2014 2014 Similarly, the redistribution largely replaced Ballarat West with Wendouree; Ballarat West was also won by Labor at the 2010 election, but notionally Liberal post-redistribution.Wendouree - Victorian Election 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/vic-election-2014/guide/wend/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 6 December 2014 2014 Seat 2010 election 2013 redistribution Swing 2014 election Party Member Margin Party Member Margin Margin Member Party Bellarine  Labor Lisa Neville 1.4  Liberal Notional 2.5 8.0 5.5 Lisa Neville Labor  Monbulk Labor James Merlino 1.9 Liberal Notional 1.1 6.0 4.9 James Merlino Labor Ripon Labor Joe Helper 2.7 Liberal Notional 1.6 −0.6 1.0 Louise Staley Liberal Wendouree Labor Sharon Knight* 1.1 Liberal New seat 0.1 6.0 5.9 Sharon Knight Labor Yan Yean Labor Danielle Green 4.1 Liberal Notional 0.1 3.4 3.3 Danielle Green Labor* Sharon Knight held the abolished seat of Ballarat West, which was largely replaced with Wendouree by the redistribution. Election validity court challenge In January 2015, unsuccessful Palmer United Party candidate Maria Rigoni petitioned the Supreme Court of Victoria to declare the 2014 election invalid, alleging that the Victorian Electoral Commission had breached the Electoral Act whilst conducting the election. Rigoni argued that the unprecedented high level of early voting demonstrated that the VEC had not applied or enforced the rule requiring applicants for an early or postal votes to declare a valid reason to an electoral officer that they were unable to vote on polling day.Victorian election was 'invalid', Palmer United Party candidate Maria Rigoni says http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-07/pup-candidate-says-victorian-election-was-invalid/6004096 22 January 2015 ABC News 7 January 2015 Lawyers acting for the VEC asked the court to dismiss the case as an abuse of process, however Justice Jack Forrest disagreed, and set the case to proceed to trial on 25 February 2015.Russell Mark Trial set for Palmer United Party candidate's challenge to Victorian election http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/trial-set-for-palmer-united-party-candidates-challenge-to-victorian-election-20150121-12uta0.html 22 January 2015 The Age Fairfax Media 21 January 2015 On 24 March, Justice Gregory Garde of the Supreme Court of Victoria dismissed Rigoni's case, ruling that there was no evidence presented to the court that the VEC's early voting procedures had any effect on the result.Judge dismisses PUP candidate Maria Rigoni's bid to have Victorian election result declared invalid http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-24/judge-dismisses-pup-bid-to-victorian-elected-declared-invalid/6343460 31 March 2015 ABC News 24 March 2015 References Category:2014 Victorian state election Category:Elections in Victoria (state) Category:2014 elections in Australia Category:2014 in Victoria (state) Category:November 2014 in Australia