2002 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2002 U.S. House elections May 2022 2002 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2000 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2000 2004 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2004 The 2002 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 5, 2002, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. The winners served in the 104th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census for the first time. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995. Predictions on overall outcome Sabato's Crystal Ball In November 2002, Sabato projected the Democrats would take 208 seatsAn independent caucuses with the Democrats, and the Republicans 226.50 most competitive House races of 2002 http://www.centerforpolitics.org:80/crystalball/house-competitive.htm Sabato's Crystal Ball 6 November 2002 24 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20021106080608/http://www.centerforpolitics.org:80/crystalball/house-competitive.htm 6 November 2002 New York Times In October 2002, New York Times projected the Democrats would take 201 seatsAn independent caucuses with the Democrats, the Republicans 213, and there were 21 tossups.2002 Senate, House and Governor Ratings https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/students/pop/articles/elections.html The New York Times 14 October 2002 21 December 2023 Election ratings Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election. Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races that were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name. DistrictIncumbent Previousresult Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 4, 2002 New York TimesOctober 14, 2002 Winner AL 3 X Bob Riley (R) (retiring) 87.46% R Lean R Lean R Mike Rogers (R) AZ 1 X (New seat) Lean R Tossup Rick Renzi (R) CA 18 X Gary Condit (D) (lost renomination) 67.10% D Lean D Tossup Dennis Cardoza (D) CO 4 X Bob Schaffer (R) (retiring) 80.89% R Lean R Tossup Marilyn Musgrave (R) CO 7 X (New seat) Lean D flip Tossup Bob Beauprez (R) CT 2 X Rob Simmons (R) 50.63% R Lean R Lean R Rob Simmons (R) CT 5 X Jim Maloney (D) 53.62% D Lean R flip Tossup Nancy Johnson (R) FL 5 X Karen Thurman (D) 64.27% D Lean D Lean D Ginny Brown-Waite (R) FL 7 X John Mica (R) 63.21% R Lean R Safe R John Mica (R) FL 22 X Clay Shaw (R) 50.14% R Safe R Lean R Clay Shaw (R) FL 24 X (New seat) Lean R flip Lean R flip Tom Feeney (R) GA 3 X Saxby Chambliss (R) (retiring) 58.92% R Lean D flip Lean D flip Jim Marshall (D) GA 11 X (New seat) Lean D flip Lean D flip Phil Gingrey (R) GA 12 X (New seat) Lean R flip Lean D flip Max Burns (R) IL 19 X David D. Phelps (R) 64.56% D Lean R flip Lean R flip John Shimkus (R) IN 2 X Tim Roemer (D) (retiring) 51.58% D Lean R flip Tossup Chris Chocola (R) IN 7 X Julia Carson (D) 58.51% D Lean D Lean D Julia Carson (D) IA 1 X Jim Nussle (R) 55.40% R Lean R Lean R Jim Nussle (R) IA 2 X Jim Leach (R) 61.83% R Lean R Lean R Jim Leach (R) IA 3 X Leonard Boswell (D) 62.83% D Safe D Lean D Leonard Boswell (D) IA 4 X Tom Latham (R) 68.77% R Lean R Safe R Tom Latham (R) KS 2 X Jim Ryun (R) 67.39% R Safe R Likely R Jim Ryun (R) KS 3 X Dennis Moore (D) 50.05% D Lean D Lean D Dennis Moore (D) KY 3 X Anne Northup (R) 52.87% R Lean R Tossup Anne Northup (R) KY 4 X Ken Lucas (D) 55.26% D Lean D Lean D Ken Lucas (D) LA 5 X John Cooksey (R) (retiring) 69.08% R Lean R Lean R Rodney Alexander (D) ME 2 X John Baldacci (D) (retiring) 73.43% D Lean D Tossup Mike Michaud (D) MD 2 X Robert Ehrlich (R) (retiring) 68.64% R Lean D flip Tossup Dutch Ruppersberger (D) MD 8 X Connie Morella (R) 52.05% R Lean D flip Tossup Chris Van Hollen (D) MI 10 X David Bonior (D) (retiring) 64.41% D Lean R flip Safe R flip Candice Miller (R) MI 11 X (New seat) Lean R Tossup Thad McCotter (R) MN 2 X Bill Luther (D) 49.56% D Lean R flip Tossup John Kline (R) MN 6 X Mark Kennedy (R) 48.10% R Lean R Safe R Mark Kennedy (R) MS 3 X Chip Pickering (R) 73.16% R Lean R Lean R Chip Pickering (R) NV 3 X (New seat) Lean R flip Lean R flip Jon Porter (R) NH 1 X John E. Sununu (R) 52.90% R Lean R Tossup Jeb Bradley (R) NH 2 X Charlie Bass (R) 56.23% R Safe R Lean R Charlie Bass (R) NJ 5 X Marge Roukema (R) 65.37% R Lean R Lean R Scott Garrett (R) NM 1 X Heather Wilson (R) 50.34% R Lean R Lean R Heather Wilson (R) NM 2 X Joe Skeen (R) (retiring) 58.11% R Lean R Tossup Steve Pearce (R) NY 1 X Felix Grucci (R) 55.52% R Lean D flip Safe R Tim Bishop (D) NC 8 X Robin Hayes (R) 55.02% R Lean R Lean R Robin Hayes (R) ND AL X Earl Pomeroy (D) 52.93% D Lean D Lean D Earl Pomeroy (D) OH 3 X Tony P. Hall (D) (retiring) 82.96% D Lean R flip Safe R flip Mike Turner (R) OH 17 X (Vacant) Lean D Safe D Tim Ryan (D) OK 4 X J.C. Watts (R) (retiring) 64.89% R Lean R Lean R Tom Cole (R) PA 6 X (New Seat) Safe R flip Lean R flip Jim Gerlach (R) PA 15 X Pat Toomey (R) 53.25% R Lean R Safe R Pat Toomey (R) PA 17 X George Gekas (R) 71.52% R Lean D flip Tossup Tim Holden (D) SD AL X John Thune (R) (retiring) 73.52% R Lean R flip Tossup Bill Janklow (R) TN 4 X Van Hilleary (R) (retiring) 65.76% R Lean D flip Lean D flip Lincoln Davis (D) TX 5 X (New Seat) Safe R Lean R Jeb Hensarling (R) TX 23 X Henry Bonilla (R) 59.32% R Lean R Safe R Henry Bonilla (R) UT 2 X Jim Matheson (D) 55.86% D Lean D Lean D Jim Matheson (D) WA 2 X Rick Larsen (D) 50.01% D Lean D Safe D Rick Larsen (D) WV 2 X Shelley Moore Capito (R) 48.49% R Lean R Lean R Shelley Moore Capito (R) Overall | | R - 226D - 208An independent caucuses with the Democrats | | R - 213D - 201An independent caucuses with the Democrats 21 tossups | | R - 229D - 205An independent caucuses with the Democrats Notes References * House