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2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina
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2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina South Carolina presidential no 1998 United States Senate election in South Carolina 1998 2010 United States Senate election in South Carolina 2010 November 2, 2004 x150px Jim DeMint headshot.jpg Jim DeMint Republican Party (United States) 857,167 53.67% Inez Tenenbaum (cropped).jpg Inez Tenenbaum Democratic Party (United States) 704,384 44.10% 2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina results map by county.svg 230px County resultsDeMint: #ffb2b2 40–50% #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70%Tenenbaum: #a5b0ff 40–50% #7996e2 50–60% #6674de 60–70% #584cde 70–80% U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings Democratic Party (United States) Jim DeMint Republican Party (United States)
The 2004 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 2, 2004. Longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Fritz Hollings retired, and Republican U.S. Representative Jim DeMint won the open seat. DeMint was the first Republican to hold this Senate seat since 1879 and the first Republican ever to be popularly elected to this seat. Since DeMint took office in 2005, Republicans have held both of South Carolina’s Senate seats, which they had not done since Reconstruction. As of , this is the last time the Democratic nominee for this Senate seat was white, and the last South Carolina U.S. Senate race that was decided by a single-digit margin.
Democratic primary
South Carolina's status as a Republican stronghold led observers to speculate that Hollings retiring would lead to his seat being picked up by a Republican.Hollings Retirement Could Hurt Democrats https://www.wfmynews2.com/article/news/hollings-retirement-could-hurt-democrats/83-404026886 2022-02-13 wfmynews2.com en-US Inez Tenenbaum, the South Carolina Superintendent of Education, would win the primary by a wide margin following the decision of many state Democrats to forgo a candidacy.
Candidates
Nominee
Inez Tenenbaum, South Carolina Superintendent of Education
Eliminated in primary
Ben Frasier, former congressional aide
Withdrew
Bob Coble, mayor of ColumbiaColumbia Mayor Bob Coble drops out of Senate race https://www.wistv.com/story/1489406/columbia-mayor-bob-coble-drops-out-of-senate-race 2022-02-13 WISTV en (endorsed Tenenbaum)
Declined to run
Jim Clyburn, U.S. Representative
Hayne Hipp, businessman2003-05-02 Corzine Looks For Millionaires https://www.rollcall.com/2003/05/02/corzine-looks-for-millionaires/ 2022-02-13 Roll Call en2003-06-06 Coalition of The Willing? https://www.rollcall.com/2003/06/06/coalition-of-the-willing/ 2022-02-13 Roll Call en
Fritz Hollings, incumbent U.S. Senator (retired)
Darla Moore, investor2003-05-20 Democrats Brace for Possible Hollings Exit https://www.rollcall.com/2003/05/20/democrats-brace-for-possible-hollings-exit/ 2022-02-13 Roll Call en
Thomas L. Moore, state senator
Alex Sanders, former president of the College of Charleston; nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002
James E. Smith Jr., state representativeWho Will Replace Hollings? https://www.wltx.com/article/news/who-will-replace-hollings/101-384264151 2022-02-13 wltx.com en-US
John Spratt, U.S. Representative
Results
2004 South Carolina U.S. Senate Democratic primary electionhttp://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004congresults.pdf OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS
FOR UNITED STATES SENATE (2004). www.fec.gov. p. 72. Retrieved October 24, 2013.
Democratic Party (United States)
Inez Tenenbaum
126,720
75.5%
Democratic Party (United States)
Ben Frasier
41,070
24.5%
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Jim DeMint, U.S. Representative
Defeated in primary
David Beasley, former governor
Charlie Condon, State Attorney General
Orly Benny Davis, businesswomanhttps://archive.today/20120715010620/http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=DXEyAAAAIBAJ&sjid=mawFAAAAIBAJ&pg=1321,3959230&dq=orly+benny+davis&hl=en news.google.com/newspapers. July 2022.
Mark Struthers McBride, Mayor of Myrtle Beachhttp://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_product=MB&s_site=myrtlebeachonline&p_multi=MB&p_theme=realcities&p_action=search&p_maxdocs=200&p_topdoc=1&p_text_direct-0=0F893E9C2D0ECA81&p_field_direct-0=document_id&p_perpage=10&p_sort=YMD_date:D&s_trackval=GooglePM MCBRIDE ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL January 7, 2003. fee required.
Thomas Ravenel, real estate executive and son of former U.S. Representative Arthur Ravenel Jr.
Campaign
The Senate election two years earlier in 2002 did not have a primary election because the South Carolina Republicans were more preoccupied with the gubernatorial contest, despite having the first open senate seat in 40 years. The retirement of Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings gave the Republicans an opportunity to pick up the seat and with no other interesting positions up for election in 2004, a crowded field developed in the Republican primary. Furthermore, the Republicans were motivated by having President Bush at the top of the ticket enabling them to ride his coattails to victory.
Former Governor David Beasley, from the Pee Dee, entered the race and quickly emerged as the frontrunner because of his support from the evangelical voters. However, during his term as governor from 1995 to 1999 he had greatly angered the electorate by proposing to remove the Confederate Naval Jack from the dome of the statehouse and by being against the adoption of a state lottery to provide for college scholarships. Both positions led to the loss of his re-election in 1998 and the issues continued to trouble him in the Senate race.
The battle for second place in the primary was between Upstate congressman, Jim DeMint, and Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel. DeMint was able to squeak out a second-place finish because Charlie Condon, a former Attorney General of South Carolina, split the Lowcountry vote with Ravenel thus providing DeMint the margin he needed. In addition, while many voters were attracted to the Ravenel campaign and felt that he had a future in politics, they believed that he should set his sights on a less high-profile office first before trying to become senator. Resigned to defeat, Ravenel endorsed DeMint in the runoff election.
In the runoff election on June 22, 2004, DeMint scored a surprising victory over Beasley. Ravenel's endorsement of DeMint proved crucial as the Lowcountry counties heavily went for the Representative from the Upstate. Also, Beasley had burnt too many bridges while governor and was unable to increase his share of the vote in the runoff.
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered SamplesizeKey:A – all adultsRV – registered votersLV – likely votersV – unclear Marginof error JimDeMint DavidBeasley ThomasRavenel CharlieCondon MarkMcBride BobPeeler UndecidedSurveyUSASurveyUSAJune 18–20, 2004499 (LV)± 4.5%54%44%2%Public Opinion Strategies (R)Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 10–14, 2004700 (LV)46%42%12%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJune 12–14, 2004527 (LV)± 4.4%47%48%5%Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 7, 200442%48%10%Richard Quinn & Associates (R)Richard Quinn & Associates (R)p. 2June 9–10, 2004300 (LV)± 5.8%38%47%15%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJune 4–6, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%20%38%23%12%7%SurveyUSASurveyUSAMay 22–24, 2004421 (LV)± 4.9%21%43%17%16%3%Richard Quinn & Associates (R)Richard Quinn & Associates (R)May 11, 2004467 (LV)± 4.7%18%40%11%9%22%Public Opinion Strategies (R)May 200433%54%10%SurveyUSASurveyUSAp. 2April 26–28, 2004427 (LV)± 4.9%27%38%19%16%Richard Quinn & Associates (R)Richard Quinn & Associates (R)February 4–5, 2004716 (LV)± 3.8%13%41%9%15%2%20%Public Opinion Strategies (R)Public Opinion Strategies (R)January 2004550 (LV)± 3.4%16%37%10%19%2%16%Richard Quinn & Associates (R)Richard Quinn & Associates (R)p. 2October 17–20, 2003± 3.8%8%24%8%16%44%24%44%32%22%33%45%44%28%28%Basswood Research (R)Basswood Research (R)April 29, 2003500 (LV)± 4.4%19%4%27%4%46%
Results
Republican PrimaryCandidateVotes% David Beasley
107,847
36.6% Jim DeMint
77,567
26.3% Thomas Ravenel
73,167
24.8% Charlie Condon
27,694
9.4% Mark McBride
6,479
2.2% Orly Benny Davis
1,915
0.7%
Republican Primary RunoffCandidateVotes%±% Jim DeMint 154,644 59.2% +32.9% David Beasley 106,480 40.8% +4.2%
General election
Candidates
Major
Jim DeMint (R), U.S. Representative
Inez Tenenbaum (D), South Carolina Superintendent of Education
Minor
Tee Ferguson (United Citizens)
Efia Nwangaza (Green)
Rebekah E. Sutherland (Libertarian)
Patrick Tyndall (Constitution)
DeMint entered the general election campaign severely weakened from the primary fight, having spent most of his campaign funds. He stressed to the voters that he would follow conservative principles and provide an important Republican vote in the closely divided Senate. Democrats fared poorly in statewide elections in South Carolina, so Tenenbaum tried to make the race about issues rather than party identification.
Tenenbaum attacked DeMint's support of the FairTax proposal because it would increase the sales tax by 23%. The election victory by DeMint merely cemented South Carolina's shift to the Republican column as the best candidate the Democrats could offer was soundly defeated by the typical 10-point margin.
Predictions
Source Ranking As of Sabato's Crystal BallThe Final Predictions https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/ Sabato's Crystal Ball May 2, 2021 Likely R Flip November 1, 2004
Polling
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JimDeMint (R) InezTenenbaum (D) UndecidedSurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 29–31, 2004635 (LV)± 4%52%41%7%McLaughlin & AssociatesMcLaughlin & AssociatesOctober 26–28, 2004400 (LV)± 4.9%48%40%12%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 22–24, 2004564 (LV)± 4.2%52%39%9%Mason-DixonMason-DixonOctober 19–20, 2004625 (LV)± 4%47%43%10%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 10–12, 2004563 (LV)± 4.2%46%43%11%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsOctober 6, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%49%43%8%McLaughlin & Associates (R)McLaughlin & Associates (R)September 29–30, 2004400 (LV)± 4.9%46%36%18%Mason-DixonMason-DixonSeptember 27–29, 2004625 (RV)± 4%50%38%12%Global Strategy Group (D)Global Strategy Group (D)September 27–29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.4%43%46%11%SurveyUSASurveyUSASeptember 19–21, 2004684 (LV)± 3.8%51%39%10%Global Strategy Group (D)Global Strategy Group (D)September 7–9, 2004600 (LV)± 4%44%41%15%SurveyUSASurveyUSAAugust 16–18, 2004727 (LV)± 3.7%52%39%9%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJuly 10–12, 2004702 (LV)± 3.8%48%41%11%Public Opinion Strategies (R)Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 28–29, 2004600 (LV)± 4%47%41%12%Hickman Research (D)Hickman Research (D)March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%33%48%19%Hickman Research (D)Hickman Research (D)Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%33%48%19%DSCC (D)DSCC (D)May 2003± %33%45%22%
background:#cff Hypothetical polling border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:var(--background-color-base); color:var(--color-base);
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error DavidBeasley (R) InezTenenbaum (D) UndecidedHickman Research (D)Hickman Research (D)March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%41%46%13%McLaughlin & Associates (R)McLaughlin & Associates (R)p. 2February 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%48%32%20%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error CharlieCondon (R) InezTenenbaum (D) UndecidedHickman Research (D)March 14–18, 2004700 (LV)± 3.7%40%47%13%Hickman Research (D)Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%36%48%16%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ThomasRavenel (R) InezTenenbaum (D) UndecidedHickman Research (D)Jul 28–Aug 3, 2003628 (LV)± 3.9%29%49%22%
Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error JimDeMint (R) FritzHollings (D) UndecidedDSCC (D)May 2003± %38%43%19%
Results
South Carolina U.S. Senate Election, 2004
Republican Party (United States)
Jim DeMint•
857,167
53.67%
+8.00%
Democratic Party (United States) Inez Tenenbaum 704,384 44.10% −8.60%
Constitution Party (United States) Patrick Tyndall 13,464 0.84% N/A
Libertarian Party (United States) Rebekah E. Sutherland 10,678 0.67% −0.92%
United Citizens
Tee Ferguson
5,859
0.37%
N/A
Green Party (United States) Efia Nwangaza* 4,245 0.27% N/A
No party
Write-Ins
1,286
0.08%
N/A
152,783 9.57% +2.54%
1,597,221 69.0% +16.2%
|-
| Republican Party (United States)
| colspan=5 |Republican gain from Democratic
|-
| colspan=6|*Nwangaza ran under the Independence Party in Aiken and Calhoun counties; her totals are combined.
|-
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Abbeville (Largest city: Abbeville)
Georgetown (Largest city: Murrells Inlet)
Lancaster (Largest city: Lancaster)
Union (Largest city: Union)
Barnwell (Largest city: Barnwell)
Berkeley (Largest city: Goose Creek)
Cherokee (Largest city: Gaffney)
Dorchester (Largest city: North Charleston)
Edgefield (Largest city: Edgefield)
Florence (Largest city: Florence)
Greenwood (Largest city: Greenwood)
Kershaw (Largest city: Cmaden)
Laurens (Largest city: Laurens)
Newberry (Largest city: Newberry)
Saluda (Largest city: Saluda)
See also
2004 United States Senate elections
List of United States senators from South Carolina
References
Peter E. Harrell SOUTH CAROLINA: Debate Poses Question of Who Has Momentum https://www.nytimes.com/cq/2004/10/14/news-1386206.html?pagewanted=print&position= The New York Times October 14, 2004 February 1, 2008
Michael Graham The Revolutionary http://www.nationalreview.com/mgraham/graham200411011102.asp National Review Online November 1, 2004 February 1, 2008
External links
Official campaign websites (archived)
Jim DeMint (R) for Senate
Inez Tenenbaum (D) for Senate
Category:2004 South Carolina elections
2004
South Carolina