2006 United States Senate election in Missouri

none March 2026 November 2017 2006 United States Senate election in Missouri Missouri presidential no 2002 United States Senate special election in Missouri 2002 (special) 2012 United States Senate election in Missouri 2012 November 7, 2006 150x150px Claire McCaskill 2007.jpg Claire McCaskill Democratic Party (United States) 1,055,255 49.58% Jim Talent official photo.jpg Jim Talent Republican Party (United States) 1,006,941 47.31% 2006 United States Senate election in Missouri results map by county.svg 276px County resultsMcCaskill: #a5b0ff 40–50% #7996e2 50–60% #6674de 60–70% #584cde 70–80%Talent: #ffb2b2 40–50% #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70% #d72f30 70–80% U.S. Senator Jim Talent Republican Party (United States) Claire McCaskill Democratic Party (United States) The 2006 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 7, 2006, to decide who would serve as senator for Missouri between January 3, 2007, and January 3, 2013. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in Missouri, after elections in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Jim Talent was elected in a 2002 special election over incumbent Democrat Jean Carnahan, who was appointed to the Senate seat after the posthumous election of her husband Mel Carnahan, who died in a plane crash shortly before the 2000 election. Talent ran for re-election for his first full term; his Democratic opponent was Missouri State Auditor Claire McCaskill. Both Talent and McCaskill faced unknowns in their respective primaries on August 8 and defeated them soundly. Early on the morning of November 8, Talent conceded defeat to McCaskill, having faced considerable political headwinds. Talent lost the election with 47% of the vote, to 50% of the vote for McCaskill. This was the last election an incumbent Republican senator lost in Missouri. Background The election was expected to be very close, given the seat had changed hands twice, both by very narrow margins, in the prior six years. In 2000, former Missouri Governor Mel Carnahan, a Democrat, narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Senator John Ashcroft 50% to 48%. Mel Carnahan died in a plane crash three weeks before election day, so his widow Jean Carnahan was appointed to the seat after the election. Two years later, in a special election held for the seat, incumbent Senator Jean Carnahan lost an even closer election to former Congressman Jim Talent, 50% to 49%. State politics Missouri bellwether The state of Missouri was a bellwether state throughout the 20th century. It had voted for the winner of every presidential election starting in 1904, except for in 1956, when the state narrowly favored Adlai Stevenson over Dwight D. Eisenhower. The state itself is bordered by both the South and Midwestern United States. In statewide elections for much of the prior century, Missouri had favored the Democratic Party. Beginning in 2000, however, Missouri began a gradual drift toward the Republican Party. In the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, George W. Bush carried Missouri with a margin slightly greater than he received nationally. Bush's 2004 victory also saw Missouri Republicans triumph in several down-ballot elections. Senator Kit Bond was re-elected by a decisive margin, and Matt Blunt won the election for governor, narrowly defeating state auditor Claire McCaskill. The Republican Party also captured control of the state legislature for the first time in 80 years. National significance The Missouri contest was seen as vitally important to control of the United States Senate. Democrats needed to win six seats to take control of the chamber with 51 seats. To do this, they would need to retain their 19 incumbent seats, win two Republican-held seats in states won by John Kerry in 2004 (Rhode Island and Pennsylvania), and win four races in five states Bush had won (Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Tennessee and Virginia). Thus, if Talent were re-elected, Republicans would need to win only one other seat to retain control of the Senate. General election Candidates Frank Gilmour, small business owner (Libertarian) Lydia Lewis, retired functional systems analyst (Progressive) Claire McCaskill, state auditor of Missouri, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2004 (Democratic) Jim Talent, incumbent U.S. senator since 2002 (Republican) Campaign Talent, anticipating a tough re-election battle and attempting to dissuade challengers, had accumulated a large campaign fund. http://opensecrets.org/states/election.asp?State=MO&Year=2006 Missouri Congressional Races in 2006 OpenSecrets dead https://web.archive.org/web/20070110003801/http://www.opensecrets.org/states/election.asp?State=MO&Year=2006 January 10, 2007 February 27, 2017 For most of 2005, he had no opposition. State Senator Chuck Graham had briefly entered the race early in the year, but dropped out soon after. However, on August 30, 2005, Democrat Claire McCaskill announced her intention to run for Talent's Senate seat. McCaskill started with a large financial disadvantage, but she was also an experienced candidate with high name recognition. McCaskill had run two successful campaigns for state auditor. She was also a candidate for governor in 2004, when she defeated the incumbent Democratic Governor Bob Holden in the primary election but lost with 48% of the vote in the general election. Talent started statewide advertising on August 1, 2006, forcing some observers to suggest that Talent was on the ropes and therefore needed to reassert his image (damaged recently by his "flip-flopping" on stem cell research, his opposition to raising the minimum wage and a general feeling of antipathy from the body politic regarding his lack of notable achievements while in the Senate)Phillips Lauren Talent's Bid for Second Term Just Like His First — a Tossup - New York Times https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/cq/2006/09/29/cq_1534.html 2024-06-01 archive.nytimes.com and pull ahead in a statistical dead heat. Embryonic stem cell research Since joining the Senate in 2002, Talent had supported federal legislation that would ban stem cell research. This included co-sponsoring a bill (S.658) https://web.archive.org/web/20160112180624/http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:s.00658 January 12, 2016 s. 658, "A bill to amend the Public Health Service Act to prohibit human cloning", introduced March 17, 2005 sponsored by Senator Sam Brownback which would ban all forms of human cloning, including the cloning and destruction of human embryos. On February 10, 2006, Talent withdrew his support for the bill,Stearns Matt Kraske Steve Talent changes stem-cell stance http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/politics/13845435.htm Kansas City Star February 11, 2006 March 13, 2006 September 29, 2025 https://web.archive.org/web/20060313143147/http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/politics/13845435.htm bot: unknown citing the need to balance research and protection against human cloning. This move followed criticism by Talent's Democratic opponent in the 2006 election, Claire McCaskill, as well as pressure from Missouri business interests that oppose restrictions on stem cell research. Though this reversal was widely criticized as being due to politics,"Stem-Cell Dilemmas: Senator Talent believes there is an 'ethically untroubling' option on embryonic research. Will it cost him re-election?" https://web.archive.org/web/20061129111847/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11410626/site/newsweek/ November 29, 2006, Eleanor Clift, Newsweek, February 17, 2006 Talent told the Associated Press, "The technology is changing all the time and so I'm always considering whether there is a better way to strike the balance."."Stem cell battle emerging as key issue in Missouri Senate race" https://web.archive.org/web/20061029015314/http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/13710191.htm October 29, 2006, Sam Hananel, AP, January 25, 2006 Talent suggests that moral concerns might be put to rest through a possible future scientific breakthrough - replicating embryonic stem cells without the use of cloned embryos. Proposed Constitutional Amendment 2 would amend the state constitution and allow, in line with federal law, stem cell research and treatment.2006 Ballot Measures, Missouri, Secretary of State On May 1, 2006, Talent announced his opposition to the proposed ballot-initiative.A wedge issue that helps Democrats: Stem cell research is dividing Missouri's GOP Kristen Hinman July 17, 2006 Salon.com Stem cell research and treatment is working up to be a divisive issue for many Republicans and is taking a particular prominence in Missouri."Democrats see stem cell research as political tool"May 2022 InternetArchiveBot yes , Sheryl Gay Stolberg, The New York Times, April 25, 2006 In the senate, he subsequently voted against expanding federal funds for embryonic stem cell research in July 2006. Michael J. Fox commercial Actor Michael J. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease, appeared in a television campaign commercialtelevision campaign commercial for Claire McCaskill in late October, and stated that Talent wanted to criminalize embryonic stem cell research. The commercial, which was one of many Fox had appeared in for politicians of both major political parties supportive of such research,Campaign 2004: Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race provides clear choices https://web.archive.org/web/20060221163544/http://www.postgazette.com/pg/04292/397488.stm February 21, 2006 Post-Gazette. October 18, 2004 made national headlines.Actor Fox sparks debate, support for stem cells https://web.archive.org/web/20061025044729/http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews October 25, 2006 October 26, 2006 Rush Limbaugh, conservative radio talk show host, commented on the TV commercial, saying that Fox was "really shameless" and that he was "either off his medication or acting." http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0610240206oct24,1,3035299.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed Chicago Tribune Topic Galleries September 2018 InternetArchiveBot yes Limbaugh speculated that Fox might have intentionally not taken his medication to exaggerate the effects of his illness, saying "He's moving all around and shaking, and it's purely an act." https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102400691.html The Washington Post Rush Limbaugh On the Offensive Against Ad With Michael J. Fox David Montgomery October 25, 2006 May 27, 2010 http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/10/25/olbermann-gives-us-the-visual-to-limbaughs-attack-on-michael-j-fox Olbermann Gives Us the Visual to Limbaugh's Attack on Michael J. Fox CrooksAndLiars.com October 26, 2006 https://web.archive.org/web/20070930225226/http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/10/25/olbermann-gives-us-the-visual-to-limbaughs-attack-on-michael-j-fox September 30, 2007 dead mdy-all Limbaugh followed up on October 25, 2006, saying, "When you wade into political life you have every right to say what you want, but you cannot in turn argue that no one has the right to take you on." Elaine Richman, a neuroscientist, stated, "Anyone who knows the disease well would regard his movement as classic severe Parkinson's disease. Any other interpretation is misinformed."http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15408508/ WP: Limbaugh mocks Michael J. Fox ad - Politics - Washington Post - msnbc.com 8 April 2023 July 16, 2012 https://archive.today/20120716211408/http://msnbc.msn.com/id/15408508/ bot: unknown On October 26, Fox responded to Limbaugh's claims, saying in an interview with Katie Couric, "The irony of it is that I was too medicated." He added that his condition during their interview reflected "a dearth of medication — not by design. I just take it, and it kicks in when it kicks in."Fox: I wasn't off meds in political ads. Associated Press, October 26, 2006 He further laughed, "That's funny — the notion that you could calculate it for effect." Fundraising Talent had a huge cash-on-hand advantage over McCaskill. Because of the way FEC filing works, Talent's numbers include the money he raised during his 2002 special election campaign. Totals are through July 19. Candidate Funds raised http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?ID=MOS2&Cycle=2006 Congressional Elections: Missouri Senate Race: 2006 Cycle OpenSecrets.org August 30, 2006 https://web.archive.org/web/20060825203305/http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.asp?id=MOS2&cycle=2006 August 25, 2006 dead mdy-all Cash on hand Jim Talent (R) $19,602,725 $6,921,577 Claire McCaskill (D) $4,572,707 $2,684,766 Debates Complete video of debate, September 15, 2006 Complete video of debate, October 8, 2006http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascitystar/news/politics/15221409.htm February 2017 Complete video of debate, October 16, 2006 Complete video of debate, October 18, 2006 Endorsements Claire McCaskill (D) Individuals Wesley Clark, general, 2004 democratic presidential candidatehttp://securingamerica.com/mccaskill Claire McCaskill (Senate MO) | WesPAC 12 September 2006 8 April 2023 September 12, 2006 https://web.archive.org/web/20060912040631/http://securingamerica.com/mccaskill bot: unknown Organizations National Women's Political Caucushttp://www.nwpc.org/ht/d/Candidates/pid/940 Endorsements October 6, 2006 https://web.archive.org/web/20061006063654/http://www.nwpc.org/ht/d/Candidates/pid/940 October 6, 2006 Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006 https://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_sen_ratings_nov6.pdf The Cook Political Report https://web.archive.org/web/20080605093937/https://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_sen_ratings_nov6.pdf September 30, 2021 June 5, 2008 Tossup November 6, 2006 Sabato's Crystal BallElection Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2006110601/ Sabato's Crystal Ball November 6, 2006 June 25, 2021 Tilt D Flip November 6, 2006 Rothenberg Political Report2006 Senate Ratings https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2006-senate-ratings6 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report June 25, 2021 Lean D Flip November 6, 2006 Real Clear PoliticsElection 2006 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html Real Clear Politics June 25, 2021 Tossup November 6, 2006 Polling A June 19–22, 2006 Research 2000 poll showed Talent's favorability rating was 47%-46%, with 7% having no opinion. Soon after, a St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll was released showing McCaskill with 49% favorability to Talent's 43%.Mannies Jo June 24, 2006 Senate race tied to state issues St. Louis Post-Dispatch http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/8CD39743858142E086257197005F0EAB?OpenDocument dead https://web.archive.org/web/20060808190341/http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/stlouiscitycounty/story/8CD39743858142E086257197005F0EAB?OpenDocument August 8, 2006 Source Date ClaireMcCaskill (D) JimTalent (R) FrankGilmour (L)RasmussenRasmussen September 1, 2005 46% 46%RasmussenRasmussen November 9, 2005 47% 45%RasmussenRasmussen January 2, 2006 46% 43%Research 2000Research 2000 January 21, 2006 47% 44%RasmussenRasmussen February 8, 2006 41% 46%RasmussenRasmussen March 6, 2006 43% 40%Zogby/WSJZogby/WSJ March 31, 2006 45% 48%RasmussenRasmussen April 4, 2006 42% 41%RasmussenRasmussen May 8, 2006 40% 43%Zogby/WSJZogby/WSJ June 21, 2006 44% 49%Research 2000Research 2000 June 24, 2006 49% 43%RasmussenRasmussen June 27, 2006 42% 42%RasmussenRasmussen July 20, 2006 45% 42%Zogby/WSJ July 24, 2006 45% 49%Rasmussen July 31, 2006 45% 42%SurveyUSASurveyUSA August 15, 2006 47% 46% 2%RasmussenRasmussen August 15, 2006 44% 46%Zogby/WSJZogby/WSJ August 28, 2006 45% 50%Research 2000Research 2000 September 2018 InternetArchiveBot yes September 1, 2006 47% 46% 2%USA Today/GallupUSA Today/Gallup September 5, 2006 44% 50%Zogby/WSJ September 11, 2006 45% 49%SurveyUSASurveyUSA September 14, 2006 48% 47% 1%RasmussenRasmussen September 15, 2006 45% 42%Zogby/WSJ September 28, 2006 45% 47%Mason-Dixon/MSNBCMason-Dixon/MSNBC October 2, 2006 43% 43%Reuters/ZogbyReuters/Zogby October 5, 2006 39% 43%USA Today/GallupUSA Today/Gallup October 5, 2006 48% 45%RasmussenRasmussen October 7, 2006 44% 43%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 12, 2006 51% 42% 3%RasmussenRasmussen October 13, 2006 44% 45%Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D)Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal (D) October 13, 2006 48% 43%Mason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBCMason-Dixon/McClatchy-MSNBC October 24, 2006 46% 43%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 24, 2006 45% 48% 2%Los Angeles Times/BloombergLos Angeles Times/Bloomberg October 24, 2006 45% 48%RasmussenRasmussen October 27, 2006 46% 48%Research 2000Research 2000 October 28, 2006 47% 47% 2%RasmussenRasmussen October 30, 2006 48% 47%CNN/Opinion Research CorporationCNN/Opinion Research Corporation October 31, 2006 49% 49%SurveyUSASurveyUSA October 31, 2006 49% 46% 2%Reuters/ZogbyReuters/Zogby November 2, 2006 46% 43% 6%RasmussenRasmussen November 2, 2006 49% 48%Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchyMason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy November 3, 2006 46% 45%RasmussenRasmussen November 5, 2006 48% 49%USA Today/GallupUSA Today/Gallup November 5, 2006 49% 45%SurveyUSASurveyUSA November 5, 2006 51% 42% 4%SurveyUSASurveyUSA November 6, 2006 50% 44% 3%PolimetrixPolimetrix November 6, 2006 50% 50%OnPoint Polling and ResearchOnPoint Polling and Research November 6, 2006 49% 46% Polling and candidate positions In single-issue polling, Talent's positions contradicted the majority of voters in the election on most issues: 66% of Missouri voters favored raising the minimum wage to $6.50 an hour;http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/1CE715D688D13650862571960058AEB5?OpenDocument June 2006 poll of Missouri voters, statewide issues June 24, 2006 St. Louis Post-Dispatch October 10, 2006 https://web.archive.org/web/20060822014928/http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/1CE715D688D13650862571960058AEB5?OpenDocument August 22, 2006 dead mdy-all http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/09/talents_bid_for_reelection_to.html Talent's Bid for Second Term Just Like His First — a Tossup Lauren Phillips September 29, 2006 CQPolitics.com dead https://web.archive.org/web/20061027160009/http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/09/talents_bid_for_reelection_to.html October 27, 2006 62% of Missouri voters favored raising taxes to replace Medicaid funding cut by the current Republican Governor, Matt Blunt; 54% opposed a law that would require all Missourians to show a photo ID before they vote; 58% favored campaign donation limitations; and 66% favored restoring Medicaid coverage to about 90,000 Missourians who lost coverage when Blunt and the Republican legislature tightened eligibility requirements. Results When the polls closed in Missouri on election night the race was, as expected, too close to call. With 85% of the vote in and with still no call, McCaskill claimed victory. At the time McCaskill declared victory, she was ahead by a vote margin of 867,683 to Talent's 842,251 votes; in percentage terms, with 85% of the vote in, McCaskill led Talent, 49% to 48%. Finally, at 11:38 P.M. Central Time the Associated Press called McCaskill as the winner. St. Louis County, adjacent to St. Louis, and Jackson County, home of Kansas City, are probably what pushed McCaskill over the finish line. General election results Democratic Party (United States) Claire McCaskill 1,055,255 49.58% +0.91% Republican Party (United States) Jim Talent (incumbent) 1,006,941 47.31% -2.49% Libertarian Party (United States) Frank Gilmour 47,792 2.25% +1.27% Progressive Party Lydia Lewis 18,383 0.86% n/a 88 0.00% n/a 2,128,459 100.0 n/a Democratic Party (United States) Republican Party (United States) Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Hickory (largest city: Hermitage) Platte (largest city: Kansas City) Carroll (largest city: Carrollton) Oregon (largest city: Thayer) Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Bates (largest city: Butler) Lafayette (largest city: Odessa) Clark (largest city: Kahoka) Cass (largest city: Harrisonville) Schuyler (largest city: Lancaster) See also 2006 United States Senate elections 2006 United States House of Representatives elections References External links Official campaign websites (archived) Claire McCaskill Jim Talent Frank Gilmour Lydia Lewis Missouri 2006 Category:2006 Missouri elections