15P/Finlay

Jupiter-family comet March 2026 15P/Finlay Comet Finlay in 1960 by the US Naval Observatory.jpg Comet Finlay photographed from the US Naval Observatory on 26 September 1960Roemer_1960 William Henry Finlay Royal Observatory, South Africa 26 September 1886 P/1886 S1, P/1893 K1 1886 VII, 1893 III, 1906 V 1919 II, 1926 V, 1953 VII 1960 VIII, 1967 IX, 1974 X 1981 XII, 1988 IX jpldata MPC 21 November 2025 (JD 2461000.5) 135.43 years 2,062 0.997 AU 6.025 AU 3.511 AU 6.58 years 0.71595 6.786° 13.734° 347.87° 238.54° 2.619 0.009 AU 0.162 AU Tancredi_2006 1.21 km mi 0.035 0.012 (assumed) 14.9 13 July 2021 9 February 2028Horizons2028 Comet Finlay, also known as 15P/Finlay, is a Jupiter-family comet with an orbital period of 6.58 years. It discovered by William Henry Finlay from the Royal Observatory at Cape of Good Hope, South Africa on 26 September 1886. Of the known numbered periodic comets, the orbit of 15P/Finlay has one of the smallest minimum orbit intersection distances with Earth's orbit (E-MOID).jpldata In October 2060, the comet will pass about 5 e6km e6mi LD unit from Earth.Earth2060 Observational history Perihelion distanceat different epochs Epoch Perihelion(AU) 1866 1.0 1906 0.96 1919 1.0 1981 1.1 2008 0.97 2021 0.99 2028 1.0 When the first orbit calculations were made in 1886, there was a similarity between this orbit and that of Francesco de Vico's lost comet of 1844.This comet was later known to be 54P/de Vico–Swift–NEAT in 1965 and 2002, respectively Lewis Boss noted large discrepancies between the orbits and after further observations concluded that de Vico's comet could not be the same as Finlay's.Kronk During the 1906 apparition, the comet brightened to magnitude 6. In 1910 a close pass with Jupiter increased the orbital period, in 1919 the path was off predictions and a new comet discovered by Sasaki (Kyoto Observatory, Japan) on 25 October 1919, was discovered to be Finlay's. The magnitude of the comet declined after 1926, and it was not until 1953 that it has been observed on every return. 2014–2015 During the 2014 perihelion passage the comet outburst on 16 December 2014 from magnitude 11 to magnitude 9 becoming bright enough to be seen in common binoculars with a 50 mm objective lens. On December 23, 2014, 15P and Mars were only 1/6 of a degree apart in the sky after sunset. But by December 23, 2014, the comet had dimmed considerably since the outburst. On 16 January 2015, the comet outburst to magnitude 8. 2060 15P/Finlay currently has an Earth-MOID of 0.009 AU e6km e6mi unit.jpldata The comet will come to perihelion six more times and then on October 22, 2060, the comet will pass roughly 0.0334 AU e6km e6mi unit from Earth with an uncertainty region of about ±2300 km.jpldata This will be one of the closest comet approaches to Earth.Comet Close Approaches to the Earth Physical characteristics In 2004, Jakub Cerny estimated that the nucleus of 15P/Finlay has an upper limit of about 1.5 km mi using non-gravitational forces to determine it.Lamy_2004 However this was uncertain as it assumed a nearly 10% active surface fraction upon perihelion.Lamy_2004 Photometric data in 2000 obtained an absolute magnitude of 17.2, which corresponds to a much larger nucleus at 2.42 km mi assuming its geometric albedo is around 0.035.Tancredi_2006 Arids meteor shower Debris ejected during the 1995 perihelion passage generated a meteor shower on 29–30 September 2021 radiating from the southern constellation of Ara.CBET_5046 CBET_5049 More outbursts are expected on 7 October 2021 from the 2008 and 2014 streams.CBET_5055 A 2026 study confirmed that this meteor shower was successfully detected at the Mauna Kea Observatory in Hawaii, where the source was attributed to have originated from dust ejected during the 2014 apparition of Finlay.Tanaka_2026 However the study also noted that the 2008 apparition was exceptionally quiet, making it unlikely to have produced high-velocity dust that could have contributed to the 2021 meteor shower as the 2014 apparition did.Tanaka_2026 Exploration 15P/Finlay is not yet visited by any spacecraft, but two proposals considering this comet as a potential target for exploration were published. A 2020 study places Finlay as one of 10 backup targets for the European Space Agency's Comet Interceptor mission in case a suitable non-periodic comet to flyby was not found.Schwamb_2020 In 2025, the proposed JAXA mission, the Next Generation Small-Body Sample Return (NGSR), selected Finlay as one of five backup targets in case 289P/Blanpain is unreachable.Saiki_2025 Assuming a 2029 launch, Comet Interceptor could make a flyby of Finlay by September 2034.Schwamb_2020 On the other hand, if NGSR is targeted towards 15P, it could launch by 2037 and rendezvous with the comet following an Earth-Venus-Earth-Earth (EVEE) trajectory.Saiki_2025 Notes References P. Jenniskens T. Cooper D. Lauretta etal D. W. Green Arid Meteors 2021 http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005000/CBET005046.txt Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams 2021-10-01 5046 1 2021CBET.5046....1J Q. Z. Ye J. Vaubaillon M. Sato etal D. W. Green Arid Meteors 2021 http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005000/CBET005049.txt Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams 2021-10-04 5049 1 2021CBET.5049....1Y P. Jenniskens S. Heathcote E. Jehin etal D. W. Green Arid Meteors 2021 http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005000/CBET005055.txt Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams 2021-10-09 5055 1 2021CBET.5055....1J 15P/Finlay – JPL Small-Body Database Lookup https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=15P ssd.jpl.nasa.gov Jet Propulsion Laboratory 2017-02-20 G. W. Kronk 15P/Finlay https://cometography.com/pcomets/015p.html Cometography.com 2007-01-31 P. L. Lamy I. Toth Y. R. Fernández H. A. Weaver Comets II The Sizes, Shapes, Albedos, and Colors of Cometary Nuclei https://physics.ucf.edu/~yfernandez/papers/comets2chapter/comets2reprint.pdf 2004 223–264 University of Arizona Press 10.2307/j.ctv1v7zdq5.22 2004come.book..223L j.ctv1v7zdq5.22 978-0-8165-2450-1 9 October 2022 24 March 2026 https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/https://physics.ucf.edu/~yfernandez/papers/comets2chapter/comets2reprint.pdf dead 15P/Finlay Orbit http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=15P Minor Planet Center 2014-06-21 E. Roemer Comet Notes Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific 1960 72 429 512–515 1960PASP...72..512R 40676950 10.1086/127598 free T. Saiki Y. Tsuda O. Mori etal Mission concept of Japanese comet sample return exploration in the 2030s Acta Astronautica 2025 235 120–128 2025AcAau.235..120S 10.1016/j.actaastro.2025.05.048 M. E. Schwamb M. M. Knight G. H. Jones etal Potential Backup Targets for Comet Interceptor Research Notes of the American Astronomical Society 2020 4 2 21 2020RNAAS...4...21S 2002.01744 10.3847/2515-5172/ab7300 free I. Tanaka H. Hasegawa T. Uda M. Sato J. I. Watanabe M. Higashiyama 3 Detection of the 2021 Arid meteor shower on Maunakea, Hawai'i https://academic.oup.com/pasj/article-pdf/78/1/11/65932425/psaf126.pdf Publications of the Astronomical Society of Japan 2026 78 1 11–19 2026PASJ...78...11T 2601.05412 10.1093/pasj/psaf126 free G. Tancredi J. A. Fernández H. Rickman J. Licandro Nuclear magnitudes and the size distribution of Jupiter family comets Icarus 2006 182 2 527–549 2006Icar..182..527T 10.1016/j.icarus.2006.01.007 Comet Finlay in Bright Outburst, Visible in Small Telescopes Bob King Universe Today http://www.universetoday.com/117449/comet-finlay-in-bright-outburst-visible-in-small-telescopes/ 2014-12-20 2014-12-18 24324Re: [comets-ml] Re: Possible another outburst of 15P/Finlay? Michael Mattiazzo Yahoo: comet-ml https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/comets-ml/conversations/messages/24324 https://archive.today/20150119001956/https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/comets-ml/conversations/messages/24324 dead January 19, 2015 2015-01-17 Horizons Batch for 15P/Finlay (90000258) on 2028-Feb-09 JPL Horizons Perihelion occurs when rdot flips from negative to positive https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%27DES%3D15P%3BCAP%27&START_TIME=%272028-Feb-07%27&STOP_TIME=%272028-Feb-12%27&STEP_SIZE=%273%20hours%27&QUANTITIES=%2719%27 2022-06-16 (JPL#K213/16 Soln.date: 2022-Mar-09) Horizons Batch for 2060-Oct-22 Earth approach JPL Horizons https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%27DES%3D15P%3BCAP%27&START_TIME=%272060-Oct-22%2017:00%27&STOP_TIME=%272060-Oct-22%2018:00%27&STEP_SIZE=%2710%20minutes%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27 https://web.archive.org/web/20220616142743/https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%2790000257%27&START_TIME=%272060-Oct-22+17%3A00%27&STOP_TIME=%272060-Oct-22+18%3A00%27&STEP_SIZE=%2710+minutes%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27 2022-06-16 live 2022-06-16 External links 1000027 15P 15P/Finlay at the Minor Planet Center database 15P/Finlay at Gary W. Kronk's Cometography 15P/Finlay at Kazuo Kinoshita's Comets 15P/Finlay at Seiichi Yoshida's website 15P/Finlay at CometBase database 15P/Finlay on 18 Dec 2014 (200mm lens F5.6 / Rob Kaufman of Australia) 14P/Wolf 16P/Brooks Category:Periodic comets 015P 0015 015P 015P Category:Meteor shower progenitors 18860926