2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico

none June 2025 September 2023 2004 United States presidential election 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico New Mexico presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in New Mexico 2000 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 5 376,930 49.84% John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 0 370,942 49.05% 265px County results 265px Congressional district results Bush #e27f90 50–60% #cc2f4a 60–70% #d40000 70–80% Kerry #86b6f2 50–60% #4389e3 60–70% #1666cb 70–80% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) 68.4% (of registered voters) 55.1% (of voting age population) The 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. New Mexico was won by incumbent Republican President George W. Bush by a 0.79% margin of victory. Bush took 49.84% of the vote, narrowly defeating Democratic Senator of Massachusetts John Kerry, who took 49.05%. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. New Mexico is a very diverse state, with 42% of the state Hispanic and another 42% of the electorate non-Hispanic white. Exit polling showed that incumbent George W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in 2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from 2000, when Al Gore had narrowly won the state. New Mexico was one of the only three states which switched sides between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa also flipped from Gore to Bush, while New Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry). Bush is the only Republican presidential nominee to win New Mexico since his father in 1988. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time the Republican nominee won Los Alamos County and Sandoval County. Caucuses 2004 New Mexico Democratic presidential caucuses Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.Members DC Political Report July 2016 InternetArchiveBot yes +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportLean DAssociated PressToss-upCNNLean R FlipCook Political ReportToss-upNewsweekToss-upNew York TimesToss-upRasmussen ReportsToss-upResearch 2000Lean DWashington PostToss-upWashington TimesToss-upZogby InternationalLikely DWashington DispatchLikely R Flip Polling Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=35 US Election Atlas 2004 Presidential Election Polls. New Mexico Polls Fundraising Bush raised $869,407.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Kerry raised $1,289,134.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President Advertising and visits Because of the closeness of the prior election, New Mexico was largely considered as a swing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/NM/ America votes 2004: SHOWDOWN STATES: NEW MEXICO CNN 2022-05-27 Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys CNN 2022-05-27 2021-04-22 https://web.archive.org/web/20210422073439/http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ live Analysis Although Bill Richardson, the Democratic governor, was very popular, the state, which voted for Al Gore by 366 votes in 2000, chose George W. Bush in 2004, by about 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 was Colfax County. Half of the population in New Mexico is Hispanic, and Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the Hispanic vote. Results 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush (incumbent) Dick Cheney (incumbent) 376,930 49.84% +1.99 Democratic Party (United States) John Kerry John Edwards 370,942 49.05% +1.14 Independent (United States) Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 4,053 0.54% −3.01 Libertarian Party (United States) Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,382 0.31% −0.03 Green Party of the United States David Cobb Pat LaMarche 1,226 0.16% −3.39 Constitution Party (United States) Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 771 0.10% +0.04 756,304 100.00% Republican Party (United States) By county County George W. BushRepublican John KerryDemocratic Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Bernalillo 121,454 47.29% 132,252 51.50% 3,105 1.21% -10,798 -4.21% 256,811 Catron 1,427 71.60% 551 27.65% 15 0.75% 876 43.95% 1,993 Chaves 14,773 68.06% 6,726 30.99% 206 0.95% 8,047 37.07% 21,705 Cibola 3,477 46.44% 3,913 52.26% 97 1.29% -436 -5.82% 7,487 Colfax 3,082 51.64% 2,824 47.32% 62 1.04% 258 4.32% 5,968 Curry 10,649 74.54% 3,541 24.79% 96 0.67% 7,108 49.75% 14,286 De Baca 706 71.10% 281 28.30% 6 0.60% 425 42.80% 993 Doña Ana 29,548 47.69% 31,762 51.26% 650 1.05% -2,214 -3.57% 61,960 Eddy 13,268 65.46% 6,880 33.94% 122 0.61% 6,388 31.52% 20,270 Grant 6,135 45.81% 7,095 52.98% 162 1.20% -960 -7.17% 13,392 Guadalupe 914 40.32% 1,340 59.11% 13 0.58% -426 -18.79% 2,267 Harding 380 59.01% 259 40.22% 5 0.78% 121 18.79% 644 Hidalgo 1,081 55.04% 861 43.84% 22 1.11% 220 11.20% 1,964 Lea 14,430 79.37% 3,646 20.05% 105 0.58% 10,784 59.32% 18,181 Lincoln 6,070 67.34% 2,822 31.31% 122 1.36% 3,248 36.03% 9,014 Los Alamos 5,810 51.89% 5,206 46.49% 181 1.61% 604 5.40% 11,197 Luna 4,164 54.84% 3,340 43.99% 89 1.17% 824 10.85% 7,593 McKinley 7,351 35.64% 13,051 63.28% 221 1.07% -5,700 -27.64% 20,623 Mora 928 32.84% 1,876 66.38% 22 0.78% -948 -33.54% 2,826 Otero 14,066 67.74% 6,433 30.98% 265 1.28% 7,633 36.76% 20,754 Quay 2,661 64.63% 1,422 34.54% 34 0.83% 1,239 30.09% 4,117 Rio Arriba 5,149 34.33% 9,753 65.02% 97 0.65% -4,604 -30.69% 14,999 Roosevelt 4,997 69.95% 2,082 29.14% 65 0.91% 2,915 40.81% 7,144 San Juan 29,525 65.60% 14,843 32.98% 638 1.42% 14,682 32.62% 45,006 San Miguel 3,313 27.34% 8,683 71.67% 120 0.99% -5,370 -44.33% 12,116 Sandoval 22,628 50.80% 21,421 48.09% 492 1.11% 1,207 2.71% 44,541 Santa Fe 18,466 27.89% 47,074 71.11% 660 1.00% -28,608 -43.22% 66,200 Sierra 3,162 61.31% 1,926 37.35% 69 1.33% 1,236 23.96% 5,157 Socorro 3,696 47.08% 4,025 51.27% 130 1.66% -329 -4.19% 7,851 Taos 3,666 24.71% 10,987 74.06% 182 1.22% -7,321 -49.35% 14,835 Torrance 4,026 61.87% 2,386 36.67% 95 1.46% 1,640 25.20% 6,507 Union 1,454 77.30% 411 21.85% 16 0.85% 1,043 55.45% 1,881 Valencia 14,474 55.64% 11,270 43.33% 268 1.03% 3,204 12.31% 26,012Total 376,93049.84%370,94249.05%8,4321.11%5,9880.79%756,304 right 230px Swing by county Legend #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% #d40000 Republican — +>15% 230px Trend by county Legend #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% #d40000 Republican — +>15% 230px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Colfax (largest municipality: Raton) By congressional district Despite losing the state, Kerry won two of three congressional districts including one district won by a Republican.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project District Bush Kerry RepresentativeNew Mexico 1 1st 48% 51%Heather WilsonNew Mexico 2 2nd 58% 41%Steve PearceNew Mexico 3 3rd 45% 54%Tom Udall Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors New Mexico voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico has 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.http://www.sos.state.nm.us/Election/04Primary/Presidential04.htm Presidential Candidates 2004 2009-10-10 2005-12-01 https://web.archive.org/web/20051201024005/http://www.sos.state.nm.us/Election/04Primary/Presidential04.htm dead Rod Adair Ruth Kelly Rick Lopez Lou Melvin Rodney Montoya References External links 2004 Presidential Election Results: Spreadsheets and Charts New Mexico 2004 Category:2004 New Mexico elections