1976 Tangshan earthquake

Mw 7.6 earthquake in Hebei, China October 2024 1976 Tangshan.png 1976 Tangshan earthquake zh 唐山大地震 yes doublet 1976-07-27 19:42:55 1976-07-28 10:45:36 711732 711773 usp0000hjg usp0000hk6 28 July 1976 Peking time: 03:42:55 18:45:36 7.6 w y; 7.6 s yEHB 711732 7.0 w y; 7.4 s yEHB 711773 A: 12.2 kmB: 16.7 km 39.63 N 118.10 E 39.72 N 118.44 E Hebei, People's Republic of China XI 242,469 dead"see table" CNY 10 billion Tangshan earthquake.jpg The 1976 Tangshan earthquake (唐山大地震 Tángshān dà dìzhèn Great Tangshan earthquakeAlso known as "Great Tangshan earthquake" in English sources, e.g. the voluminous work edited by Housner He 2002.) occurred at 19:42:55 UTC on 27 July (03:42:55, 28 July local time). The maximum intensity of the w y 7.6 earthquake around Tangshan, Hebei, China, was XI (Extreme) on the Mercalli scale. In minutes, 85 percent of the buildings in Tangshan collapsed or were rendered unusable, all services failed, and most of the highway and railway bridges collapsed or were seriously damaged.Housner He 2002 Prologue. The official count stated 242,469 deaths,"see table" See the table on #Death toll while historians accepted at least 300,000 died,Xia 2020 79Wang 2016 making it the deadliest earthquake in recorded history (excluding the famine deaths from the 1556 Shaanxi earthquake) and one of the worst disasters in China by death toll. Tectonic setting thumb|Tectonic elements surrounding the North China Craton on which Tangshan lies. Tangshan lies at the northern edge of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Plain, an alluvial plain that stretches from Beijing to the Sea of Bohai.Jennings 1980 77. This plain – the northeastern corner of the great North China Plain – is where sediments eroded from the Yanshan mountains to the north have filled in the ancient Sea of Bohai, with Tangshan near where the shore was about 4,000 years ago.Jennings 1980 84–85, and see figure 4.14. To the south these sediments have formed a layer of weak soils as much as 3 km 1 thick. At Tangshan and northward these sediments are thinner where the underlying strata crops out to form isolated hills.Jennings 1980 84; Xing Zou 2002 88. This underlying strata is a thick —typically 10 km 1 — layer of mainly sedimentary strata such as limestone and sandstone, with large deposits of coal.Guo 2002 27. Tangshan is located particularly over a northeast oriented syncline, a fold in the sedimentary strata that has brought massive deposits of coal close enough to the surface to be mined. In this area the overlying alluvium varies in thickness from several meters to around 600 m ft. Underlying all this is the ancient bedrock of different kinds of metamorphic rock (such as schist, gneiss, quartzite, granulite, etc.) that form the Eastern Block of the North China Craton. This craton (see figure) was formed approximately two billion years agoSome say 1.8 Ga, others 2.5. See Kusky Li 2003 and Kusky Windley Zhai 2007 20 for details. by the collision of two major crustal blocks that left a belt of uplifted mountains – the Central (China) Orogenic Belt (COB) – that crosses China approximately southwest to northeast, passing just west and north of Beijing.Kusky Windley Zhai 2007 3. Just north of Zunhua another orogenic belt, the east–west trending Yanshan mountain fault-fold belt (also known as the Yanshan seismic belt) marks the northern edge of the North China Craton (and of the alluvial plain). It is also the location of over half of the destructive earthquakes in Hebei province,Yang 2002a 50. as under the plain several fault zones (oriented parallel to the Central Orogenic Belt) terminate against the Yanshan mountains. Many of these faults are ancient, but have been reactivated by the force transmitted from the collision of the Indian plate against the Eurasian plate, making the Eastern Block unusually active seismically, accounting for six of the ten deadliest earthquakes in recorded history.Kusky Windley Zhai 2007 20. The Tangshan fault that ruptured 28 July runs right under the center of Tangshan City. One of three faults in the Changdong fault zone, it runs approximately east-northeast about 36 km to where it terminates against the north–south trending fault where, just to the south, the secondary M 7.1 quake occurred ("B" on the 'shaking' map).See figure 16 in Zhu 2002 23, and figure 13 in Guo 2002 43. The secondary quake occurred on a north oriented section of a fault in a zone that, coming from the southeast, turns north, and then gets complicated. The southern end of the Tangshan fault (it bends slightly at Tangshan) is near Ninghe, which was also the site of a M 6.2 earthquake several hours after the main shock, and an M 6.9 quake ("C") the following November. The Tangshan fault is considered shallow, but corresponds with a deeper and younger fault with somewhat differing characteristics.Guo 2002 30–31. Earthquakes USGS ShakeMaps of the M7.5 and M7.4 events 200px M 7.5 - 17 km NE of Penguanzhuang, China.jpg M 7.4 - 6 km SW of Linxi, China.jpg The earthquake sequence comprised two shocks with magnitudes of at least 7.0. The first struck at 3:42:55 in the morning (local time), approximately 12 km under the southern part of Tangshan.Jennings 1980 69. The magnitude was initially estimated at 8.1, subsequently recalculated to be 7.6 on the standard w y scale. However, that scale measures only the total energy released by an earthquake, and earthquakes vary in how much of that energy is converted to seismic shaking. The Tangshan quake, being relatively shallow, converted much of its energy to surface shaking, and on the s y (surface magnitude) scale it also measured 7.6, and 7.8 on the Chinese surface magnitude scale.Zhu 2002 6. This shock ruptured along a vertically dipping, northeast trending right-lateral strike-slip fault. Based on the location of the aftershocks, the rupture initiated from the epicenter and extended outwards along the fault for 140 km.Butler Stewart Kanamori 1979 207. See figure 12 (p. 218) for an illustration. See also Zhu 2002 8, Guo 2002 33–34. The crust on the southeast side of the fault was displaced by about 3 m to the southwest.Jennings 1980 89. This resulted from tectonic compression on a nearly west–east axis.Lomnitz Lomnitz 1978 109; Jennings 1980 88. Surface rupturing occurred in five en echelon segments extending 8 km 0 through the center of Tangshan.Jennings 1980 89, and see figure 4.17. The second main shock, with a magnitude 7.0 w, or 7.4 s, struck that afternoon at 18:45:36 near Luanxian, about 70 km 0 to the east-northeast ("B" on the intensity map in the next section), just south of the northeastern end of the Tangshan fault.Jennings 1980 88, 92. This occurred in a zone of north-northwest striking conjugate faults that cut across the north end of the Tangshan fault. The left-lateral motion here, along with the right-lateral motion on the Tangshan fault, suggests that as the crustal blocks to the west and east are compressed together the block between these two earthquakes is being squeezed out to the south. Aftershocks A long sequence of aftershocks followed, with twelve of magnitude 6 or greater.Lomnitz Lomnitz 1978 109. The first of these struck just three and a half hours after the initial shock, at 7:17, at the southern end of Tangshan fault, near Ninghe ("C" on the map in the section below),Zhu 2002 8, and see Table 4, p. 12. with a magnitude of 6.2 s. Another significant aftershock (s 6.9) occurred in November near Ninghe. Most aftershocks occurred between these end points, in a zone 140 km 0 long and about 50 km 0 wide.Jennings 1980 88, and see figure 15 in Guo 2002 45. Many buildings were further damaged by the aftershocks.Jennings 1980 75. The aftershock zone remains seismically active in the twenty-first century. Earthquakes measuring 4.5 sto 4.7 soccurred in 2012, 2016, and 2019. On 12 July 2020, a 5.1 sstrike-slip earthquake struck the northern part of the Tangshan Fault. It produced its own sequence of aftershocks that ended on 17 July 2020.Guo Qian Zhang Zhou Wang 2022 The earthquake caused only minor damage to buildings in Tangshan.Zhen 2020 Its occurrence stirred a debate among scientists into whether the recent earthquakes are aftershocks of the 1976 event or are background seismicity.Chen Liu Wang 2021 Damage Extent of significant shaking 39.65 118.0 7 1 right 320 210 Approximate extent of different intensities of shaking (isoseismals). Heaviest damage was within the dark brown line (intensity VII and greater). Diamonds locate the two principal shocks (A and B), and the area of several M > 6 aftershocks near Ninghe (C). 10 Tangshan_eq_isoseismal_overlay.svg 39.65 118.00 210 1.52 none Beijing 39.916667 116.383333 12 right square #776666 Tianjin 39.133333 117.183333 10 Qinhuangdao 39.933333 119.600 8 left -10 Ninghe 39.333333 117.81666 6 #776666 right +5 Changli 39.716667 119.166667 6 bottom Zunhua 40.1925 117.9571 6 top Qinglong 40.40 118.95 6 left Sea of Bohai 39.00 118.80 0 black right Tangshan 39.626 118.12 10 black top A 39.63 118.10 10 diamond red left B 39.833 118.650 8 diamond red left C 39.450 117.783 8 diamond red left VI 40.25 117.00 0 black VII 40.10 118.10 0 black VIII 39.60 118.55 0 black The damage done by an earthquake depends primarily on two factors. First, the intensity of shaking, which depends mainly on the magnitude of the earthquake rupture, the distance from the epicenter, and the nature of the local soil and topography, with soft soils (e.g., sediments and fill) more likely to amplify the intensity and duration of the shaking.Butler Stewart Kanamori 1979 217–218. See also Jennings 1980 figure 4.23, which plots damage as a function of epicentral distance and a measure of building strength. Second, the design and construction of the structures being shaken, with houses built of adobe or stone, wooden houses without a well-built frame, and unreinforced masonry construction being especially vulnerable.Jennings 1980 19. The seismic risk had been greatly underestimated and almost all buildings and structures were designed and built without seismic considerations. As a result, Tangshan was "mainly a city of unreinforced brick buildings", sitting right on top of a major fault line. The power (magnitude) of the Tangshan earthquake is indicated by the extent of where it was felt: up to 1100 km miles on away, across most of northeastern China, and even in Mongolia and Korea.Jennings 1980 69; Yang 2002b 176 [6]. In and around Beijing, 140 km miles on from the epicenter, the shaking reached an intensity of VI on the Chinese intensity scale (similar to the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale), with nearly 10% of all buildings damaged,Yao 2002 244 [74]. and at least 50 fatalities. The economic loss totaled to 10 billion yuan.Stoltman Lidstone Dechano 2004. Intensity XI and X zone The rupture occurred under the southern part of the city, and propagated northeastward on a fault that runs through the middle of the city. The maximum intensity was "XI" (eleven) on the 12-degree Chinese scale. Nearly every building and structure in the city collapsed, wholly or partially, infrastructure was severely damaged, and essential services, such as electric power, water supply, and communications, were entirely knocked out. This area of maximum damage – the meizoseismal area – was approximately 10.5 km long and from 3.5 to 5.5 km 1 wide, centered roughly along the railway.Yang 2002b 172, and see figure 2, p. 182. An isoseismal map can be found in the front matter of Volume 4 https://web.archive.org/web/20201128134409/https://authors.library.caltech.edu/26539/1/Tangshan/Volume4.0_front_matter.pdf 28 November 2020 . The area of intensity X shaking – where only new, one-story brick buildings were merely "damaged or slightly damaged", the rest being severely damaged or worse – was 36 km long and 15 km across.Yang 2002b 172. In this "high intensity" zone (intensity X and XI, within the red contour on the map) 20 highway bridges and five railway bridges cross the Douhe River in Tangshan; only six survived with only minor damage.Mao Liang Cui 2002 231 Intensity IX and VIII zone Shaking of intensity IX (or greater) occurred in a zone roughly 78 km mi on long and 42 km mi on — about 1800 km2 3 wide, inner orange contour on the map – and also around the aftershocks at Luanxian and Ninghe. In this zone most buildings classified as Class III (well-built buildings of wood, masonry, or reinforced concreteJennings 1980 10.) survived,Yang 2002b 180, Table 1. but many Class II buildings (typically old wood-frame buildings lacking a well-built frame, and quite common outside of the cities) were destroyed, while a majority of Class I buildings (built of adobe or stone) were destroyed. Further out (to the outer orange contour), and around the city of Tianjin and a few isolated patches, intensity VIII shaking mostly affected Class I buildings (more than half destroyed), bridges, and tall brick chimneys. Railway track was also subject to bending or displacement, depending on soil conditions. Intensity VII zone The zone of intensity VII shaking – inside the dark brown contour – marks the extent of moderate damage, where many Class I structures (of weak design or construction) were damaged but only "few"—between 10% and 30%—were destroyed, and only a "few" Class two buildings damaged. This ellipsoid zone extended about 75 km 0 north and south of Tangshan and 120 km 0 east and west, from about 25 km 0 short of Beijing to short of Qinhuangdao City (which had anomalously higher shaking), and from the Sea of Bohai in the south and southwest to just north of Zunhua. The north–south shortening of this zone is attributed to buttressing by the bedrock of the Yanshin mountains. Significant damage occurred beyond this in the VI zone, but (like in Beijing) affected less than 10% of the buildings, or occurred in small localized areas.Xu 2002 242. Coal mines Mining coal is Tangshan's principal industry; when the quake struck, around 10,000 miners were underground. For the most part, the mine roadways (tunnels) were not seriously damaged, but with the loss of electrical power there were no illumination (aside from headlamps), no ventilation, and no working lifts.Zhao 2002 626. It is reported that most miners escaped within hours, but that some others took two weeks to reach the surface.Housner He 2002 26–27; Wang Cui Liu 2002 749. Most of the damage to the vertical shafts occurred within the first 50 m 0 where they pass through the water-bearing alluvium. In many cases the concrete liner built to keep out the water cracked (particularly where not built properly), allowing a much greater inflow of water. Coupled with damage to the underground drainage system and lack of power to drive the pumps, many of the various mines flooded.Zhao 2002 627. Some electrical power to the mines was restored in three days, and some coal production resumed within ten days.Mi 2002 765. However, de-watering, overhauling of flooded electrical equipment, and rebuilding of surface buildings and structures continued for a year and a half; the pre-earthquake level of production was not reached until the end of 1977. Railways The Beijing–Shanhaiguan Railway (built in 1887) is a double-track Class I trunk line that runs from Beijing southeast to Tianjin and Tanggu, then turns northeast to cross the Yongdingxin River and its estuary to run to Ninghe and then Tangshan. From Tangshan it continues northeast and then east to Chengli, and then to Qinhuangdao and Shanhaiguan. This is the principal connection of Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan to the seaports, and to Northeast China. The Tongxian to Tuozitou (within modern-day Luan County) Railway (built in 1976) is a single-track Class I trunk line that runs east from the eastern outskirts of Beijing to where it meets the Beijing to Shanhaiguan line northeast of Tangshan (near the epicenter of the M 7.1 quake).Liao Gu 2002 1, and see figures 1 and 4, pp. 40 and 41. All of this was built "with no consideration for earthquake resistant design",Liao Gu 2002 1. although some "earthquake resistance measures" for large and medium bridges were applied following the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. These transport routes (and other railways and branch lines) were seriously damaged by the earthquakes, mainly in the areas of intensity IX or greater shaking.Liao Gu 2002 figure 4. (This includes a large area around Tangshan quake, and areas around Ninghe and Luanxian following the M 6.9 and M 7.4 aftershocks.) At the time of the main quake there were 28 freight trains and seven passenger trains traveling on the Beijing–Shanhaiguan line in the affected area; seven freight trains and two passenger trains derailed due to derangement of the rails,Liao Gu 2002 2. mostly south of TangshanLiao Gu 2002 figure 1. where the line was built on loose alluvium, diluvium, and occasional stretches of loose sand. In many of these cases – and also similar cases northeast of Tangshan, and on the Tongxian–Tuozitou line east of Fengrun – the railway embankment slumped due to weak soils. In other cases the embankment held, but transverse compression of the rails caused them to buckle.Liao Gu 2002 20+ has pictures. Railway operations were further impaired by the loss of communications (including signalling) and water supply (for the steam locomotives), in both cases due mainly to collapse of buildings and loss of electrical power.Liao Gu 2002 1, 2, 15–16, 18. However, the most serious damage, taking the most manpower and longest time to repair, was that involving bridges.Liao Gu 2002 8–10. Most difficult was where soft or liquefied soil allowed the bank to slide into the river, shifting the abutments. A more frequent problem was where an approach embankment subsided, typically leaving the rails suspended from the abutment. There were numerous cases where concrete piers and abutments were damaged due to inadequate design and construction; bridges that were strengthened following the Haicheng earthquake survived with only slight damage.Liao Gu 2002 1. Strengthening is primarily a matter of "joining beam ends" securely so they do not pull apart, crush together, or slip off of a support. It was observed that at intensity VII and above damage to the roadbed was correlated mainly with loose soil and a high water table. Conversely, bridges and rails in Tangshan City, built on dense soil with a deep water table, were largely undamaged even though subject to intensity XI shaking.Liao Gu 2002 1–2, 8. Over forty-two thousand people were mobilized to quickly effect emergency repair of the railways.Wang Cui Liu 2002 750. The Tongxian-Tuozitou line was opened for traffic on 3 August, single track of the Beijing-Shanhaiguan line opened on 7 August, and both tracks on 10 August, albeit at restricted speeds over temporary bridges and at other places where repairs were not yet complete. Death toll Various official data + Official figures"unless footnoted" Unless footnoted, this table is taken from Guo 2008 408–410.Locality DeathsInjuries Severe MinorTangshan "City"Tangshan City In 1976, the Tangshan county-level "city" spanned 1,090 km² (420 sq mi). Only 66 km² (25 sq mi) of which were downtown Tangshan (Lubei and Lunan Districts), the remaining 1,024 km² were suburbs (Jiao and Dongkuang Districts). Among the city's 1,061,926 population, roughly 730,000 lived downtown and 330,000 lived in the suburbs. The districts' border changed after 1982.Tao Wang 1996 104, 120 locals The Tangshan City deaths is sometimes split as "135,919 residents (with local hukou)Guo 2008 408–410. and 12,103 non-residents,Yu Su Liu Liu 2003 8. which summed up to 148,022.Yu Su Liu Liu 2003 8. Some sources mistakenly claim the city deaths to be 135,919 without realizing this number only count the city residents. The 12,103 city non-resident deaths is often inflated as 12,248, which include the 145 non-residents deaths in Tangshan Prefecture.148,022 103,919 257,384Tangshan Prefectureprefecture After administrative changes in 1982, then Tangshan prefecture (zh 唐山地区) corresponds to modern Qinhuangdao and the far rural counties of Tangshan. The prefecture's 5,953,740 population spanned across 12 counties, a county-level city (Qinhuangdao) and a county-level farming district. Tangshan City and Prefecture had a combined population of 7,015,666. The Tangshan Prefecture deaths can be split as "69,065 residents (with local hukou)Guo 2008 408–410 and 145 non-residents", which summed up to 69,210.69,210 63,620 284,079Tianjin Municipality 24,398 severe Tianjin8,262 ? Rest of HebeiMost casualties in Hebei outside Tangshan prefecture (modern Tangshan and modern Qinhuangdao) were in Langfang and Cangzhou. 839 ?Total exact deaths "242,769" and "242,419"Hebei Province 1999 415 are two alternative number of total deaths commonly cited. However, most sources citing the above numbers do not breakdown the total deaths by locality and do not have data on minor injuries. Only a few sources, like Guo 2008 408–410, provide a breakdown. Guo (2008)'s figure is 242,469.242,469 severe Tianjin "167,539" is a commonly cited severely injured figure but it only counted those in Tangshan City and Prefecture.Guo 2008 408–410 The total number including Tianjin and rest of Hebei Province is 175,797.Yu Su Liu Liu 2003 8.175,797 541,463 While the officially published death toll was 242,469 (see table on the right for a breakdown), historians determined at least 300,000 died after cross-checking the government files. Discrepancies identified by historians include: first, an internal Tangshan government report dated 22 September 1976 found 263,299 deaths nationally, including 191,300 in Tangshan City and 69,654 in Tangshan Prefecture.Tangshan Cityprefecture Second, the same internal report found 17,599 Tangshan people missing but the official count atypically does not mention the missing and never explain if the missing people were listed as deaths, injuries or not listed. Third, 100,000 severely injured Tangshan patients were transferred out but 12,000 of them did not return to Tangshan, some possibly died. Fourth, among the 175,797 severely injured, some died soon after and not tracked down. Fifth, deaths in army (158 disclosed) and air force (522 disclosed) facilities only went public many years later and the national deaths toll compiled before that possibly exclude military deaths.Guo 2008 409. Historians add up these data to at least 300,000 deaths. thumb|Tangshan Earthquake Memorial Park memorial wall An alternative official death toll 246,465 appeared on the Tangshan Earthquake Memorial Wall, which had all their names inscribed. There were five major addition of names, in 1992, 2008, 2010 and 2017.Xinhua News Agency, 29 July 2017 While 246,465 never appeared on any publications authored by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), the additional names were verified by the memorial park, which is headed by officials of the Tangshan branch of CEA. Early foreign estimates thumb|250px|A Tangshan earthquake memorial in Tianjin The first public release of official figures came in November 1979, three years after the earthquake.zh 徐学江 2006-07-25 zh:解密：唐山地震死亡人数为何三年后才允许报道 https://news.sohu.com/20060725/n244425705.shtml Xinhua News Agency https://web.archive.org/web/20080524204253/https://news.sohu.com/20060725/n244425705.shtml 2008-05-24 zh:唐山大地震死亡人数为何三年后才允许报道 2005-07-27 中华网文史 沈正赋 http://news.china.com/zh_cn/history/all/11025807/20050727/12519124.html https://web.archive.org/web/20050729005751/http://news.china.com/zh_cn/history/all/11025807/20050727/12519124.html 2005-07-29 During the three-year wait, many high-end foreign estimates gained media popularity. Within days, Pararas-Carayannis, an oceanographer in charge of IOC's International Tsunami Information Center, gave UPI an estimate of 700,000 to 750,000 deaths. Initially, he said his basis was the Shaanxi earthquake in 1556, which he said to have similar magnitude and similar construction standards, i.e. yaodong caves.Spignesi 2004 48–49 wrote, "Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis, world-renowned earthquake and volcano authority, and author of The Big One: The Next Great Californian Earthquake, related the following regarding the number of deaths in Tangshan in 1976: A couple of days[...] I told UPI that approximately 700,000 to 750,000 people must have lost their lives from this quake. I based my estimate on the death toll caused by the earthquake in 1556 – which devastated 98 counties and 8 provinces of Central China. The historic record documents that destruction from the 1556 quake – centered primarily in Hausien in the Shensi province – affected a total area of 500 square miles, and that in some counties the average death toll was 60 percent of the total population. In the 1556 event, 830,000 people lost their lives, so the estimate I gave to UPI for the 1976 quake was reasonable since the magnitude of this event was similar to that estimated for the 1556 quake and since construction standards for this rural area had not changed significantly [Footnote 1]. [Footnote 1:] See Dr. George's in-depth Websites for more information. [url]" However, there were no yaodong caves in Tangshan. Later, The Tangshan Earthquake of July 28, 1976 in China 2008 George Pararas-Carayannis Disaster Pages of Dr. George P.C. 2008-07-23 2008-10-11 http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Earthquake1976ChinaTangshan.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20081011045437/http://www.drgeorgepc.com/Earthquake1976ChinaTangshan.htmlThe Great Tangshan Earthquake of 28 July 1976 in China – Analysis of Tsunami Generation in the Bohai and Yellow Seas George Pararas-Carayannis Journal of Tsunami Society International 2021 40 2 http://www.tsunamisociety.org/402Pararas-Carayannis.pdf he said the population density and the 93% destruction rate of residential buildings in downtown Tangshan (where 730,000 people resided)Tangshan City justify an estimate of 655,000 to 779,000 dead. In August 1976, Taiwan's Military Intelligence Bureau quoted their agents in China had learnt the death toll was over 100,000, with about 900,000 injured.UPI: Pacific Stars and Stripes, 7 August 1976, p. 11. On 5 January 1977, Taiwan intelligence claimed they obtained a document dated 6 August 1976, nine days after the earthquake, that found 655,237 dead and 79,000 injured. The alleged document was conference materials prepared by Hebei provincial agencies for the third batch of armed police who were standing by reinforcement orders.Quake Toll in China Put at 655,000 In Report Said to Come From Area January 5, 1977 4 New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/1977/01/05/archives/quake-toll-in-china-put-at-655000-in-report-said-to-come-from-area.html https://web.archive.org/web/20180220020954/https://www.nytimes.com/1977/01/05/archives/quake-toll-in-china-put-at-655000-in-report-said-to-come-from-area.html 2018-02-20 Scholars found 655,237 to be a "suspiciously accurate figure" just 9 days after the earthquake.Great Earthquakes Musson Roger M.W. 2011 Gupta Harsh K. Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series Springer 567 suspiciously accurate figure of 655,237 deaths Political aspects The remarkably low death toll of the Haicheng earthquake the previous year – initially said to be fewer than 300,Whitham Berry Heidebrecht Kanasewich 1976 268. much later estimated at a still very modest 2,041Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 779.– had been credited to measures taken in response to an accurate and timely prediction. This was touted as demonstrating the validity of the Chinese methods of earthquake prediction inspired by Marxism-Leninism-Mao Tze-tung thoughtRaleigh Bennett Craig Hanks 1977 260, quoting the Peking Review 1975 20, state: margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: -0.5em; The link between politics and earthquake prediction is well expressed by the following statement: 'This is eloquent proof that in socialist New China, under the leadership of Chairman Mao and the Communist Party and by relying on the masses and professional seismological workers armed with Marxism – Leninism – Mao Tze-tung thought and preserving in practice and summing up experience conscientiously, not only can signs indicating an earthquake be observed but predictions and forecasts can be made and damage can be greatly minimized by doing a good job of precautionary work'. See also Cha 1976 7, attributing achievement of rapid progress to "the victory of our great proletarian cultural revolution. and "the superiority of [China's] socialist system".From a Xinhua News Agency press release published in all major Chinese newspapers 13 March 1975, quoted in Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 781. See also Chu 1976 11, quoted in Geller 1997 434. Many residents initially mistook the earthquake for a Soviet nuclear attack.Palmer James 2025-11-12 What Are China’s Nuclear Ambitions? https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/04/china-trump-nuclear-weapons-testing-arsenal/ 2025-11-04 Foreign Policy en-US With China in the midst of the Cultural Revolution,Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 Appendix E has a concise description of the Cultural Revolution. "belief in earthquake prediction was made an element of ideological orthodoxy that distinguished the true party liners from right wing deviationists", and it was everyone's duty to criticize those who doubted the feasibility of earthquake prediction.Raleigh Bennett Craig Hanks 1977 266; Cha 1976 7. As a backdrop to this, and of deep concern to the Chinese Communist Party,Xiao 2013 80. was a collectively recognized but unvoiced awarenessLi 2016 420. that in traditional Chinese belief, natural disasters are considered disruptions in the natural order of heaven and may signify the current government's loss of the mandate of heaven.Yeoh 2010 273; Xiao 2013 208. This view was underlined by a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in southwestern China just three weeks later.Sichuan 1976 See 1976 Songpan–Pingwu earthquake. On the other hand, an ongoing mass education campaign before the quake showed that the government was aware and concerned, and the prompt and massive response following the quake demonstrated the government's competence to alleviate suffering and restore normal production, drawing on resources from across the state.Raleigh Bennett Craig Hanks 1977 258–259.June 2026 SomeJune 2026 have contrasted this with the comparative lack of assistance the hardships faced by disaster victims (especially the poor) under previous regimes.Raleigh Bennett Craig Hanks 1977 259–260.June 2026 Mao Zedong was already ailing at the time of the earthquake; he died only six weeks later on 9 September 1976, ushering the downfall of the Gang of Four and bringing the Cultural Revolution to an end.https://www.thetimes.com/travel/destinations/asia-travel/china/the-death-of-mao-the-tangshan-earthquake-and-the-birth-of-the-new-china-by-james-palmer-cz9ngl637pt The Death of Mao: The Tangshan Earthquake and the Birth of the New China by James Palmer Dikotter Frank Question of prediction Earthquake prediction Whether the Tangshan earthquake was predicted has had considerable political as well as seismological significance. The 1975 Haicheng earthquake (about 400 km [250 miles] northeast of Tangshan) is regarded by seismologists as the only successful prediction of a major earthquake, although no mechanism has been proposed to explain this prediction, and no successful predictions have been achieved since.Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 757 The surprisingly light death toll – initial reports were of "very few people killed",Hammond 1976. but later determined to be a modest 2,041—for this magnitude s y 7.5 quake, attributed to the precautionary measures taken following a definite short-term prediction, was proclaimed as a demonstration of the superiority of China's socialist system,Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 781. and incidentally a validation of the Chinese methodologies. However, it was later determined that the most important factor in anticipating the Haicheng earthquake was the extended series of significant foreshocks ("powerful messages from nature"Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 777.), and the low casualty rate was due largely to the time of day, hitting in the early evening when most people were neither at work nor asleep.Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 780. Tangshan was not so fortunate.Kerr 1979 543. Seventeen months later the 242,419 fatalities of the similarly sized Tangshan earthquake were therefore a considerable shock politically as well as seismically. While some of this greater mortality might be attributed to the exposure of a larger population, or the time of day (Haicheng was struck in the early evening, Tangshan while most people were asleep), the principal factor appeared to be the failure to take any precautionary measures: Tangshan was entirely unprepared.Xie Qu 2018 5. At the time, the Chinese methods of earthquake prediction mainly consisted of watching for various precursors, including foreshocks,Lomnitz Lomnitz 1978 109–110. and were celebrated for their success at Haicheng and elsewhere.Lomnitz Lomnitz 1978 109 mention "the Lungling and Yenyuen earthquakes, both accurately predicted". See also Jennings 1980 (p. 6) and Chen Wang 2010 regarding the Sungpan—Pingwu (or Songpan) earthquake. Many seismologists consider the Tangshan earthquakes to have not been predicted,Jennings 1980 6; Geller 1997 434; ICEF 2011 351. even "famously unpredicted",Scholz 1997. and that it was not predictable due to a lack of precursory anomalous phenomena. Furthermore, an investigation 30 years later found that there was no official short-term prediction of an imminent earthquake at Haicheng, and that, though there were many unofficial predictions of an imminent quake, none of those had a scientific basis.Wang Chen Sun Wang 2006 785. The warnings that were made and precautions taken happened largely at the local level, based on general middle-term predictions, enhanced public awareness due to an educational campaign,See also Jennings 1980 64–67. and a series of foreshocks. It is significant that at Tangshan there were no perceptible foreshocks.Jennings 1980 81. On the other hand, it is reported that several people at the State Seismological Bureau (SSB) wanted to warn of an impending earthquake somewhere in the region between Beijing and the Bohai Sea, and that this was discussed at several meetings.Bo 2010 Chapter 7. One of these was a week-long national conference on earthquake predictions and preparation that convened in Tangshan on 14 July (two weeks before the earthquake) where Wang Chengmin is said to have warned there could be a magnitude 5+ earthquake in the Tangshan—Luanxian area between 22 July and 5 August.Bo 2010 281. However, in addition to the distractions of the Cultural Revolution, there was a possible disagreement within the SSB on whether the next large earthquake would be in eastern China (e.g. the Beijing area) or western China, and that in May it had been concluded that no major earthquakes would occur in the Beijing–Tangshan area.Bo 2010 284. As it turned out, western China was hit by the magnitude 7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake only three weeks after Tangshan,Chen Wang 2010 2844. showing that those arguing for the imminence of an earthquake in Western China were not entirely wrong. At another meeting, on 26 July, there was a purported suggestion to not issue any warning, to avoid alarming the population.Bo 2010 282. The next morning, at an emergency meeting he requested with the Bureau's leadership, Wang was reportedly told by Deputy Chief Cha Zhiyuan that "We are currently very busy. We will discuss it again next week."Bo 2010 283. However, Cha has disputed this, claiming that Wang said there would be no major earthquakes. Another account says Wang was directed to submit more information, then send a small group to observe the earthquake.Peng 2008 9 Some of the bureaucratic reticence to issue warnings and order precautionary measures likely resulted from too many predictions. These were often based on doubtful theories notorious for false alarmsChen Wang 2010 2847. that earthquakes can be predicted on the basis of droughts,Bo 2010 279. daily temperatures,Bo 2010 286. variations in geomagnetism, or isolated anomalous phenomena. They were often too broad (magnitude "of at least 4.0 in the area of Beijing, Tianjin, Huailai, Tangshan, Bohai, and Zhangjiakou", "in a few years"Bo 2010 287.) to warrant large-scale societal and economic disruption. Such disruptions could be serious: a false alarm in October 1976, issued by the Shaanxi provincial government, is estimated to have disrupted the lives of 65% of the population of that province for half a year.Chen Wang 2010 2846. It has also been estimated that "in the fall of 1976 about 400 million of the then total population of 930 million of China spent some nights in temporary earthquake shelters."Chen Wang 2010 2846, citing a Chinese source. This illustrates the classic dilemma of earthquake prediction: increasing the sensitivity to the possibility of an earthquake (i.e., reducing the failure to predict) increases the number of false alarms, which often has a significant cost.ICEF 2011 351. Cultural references Chinese director Feng Xiaogang's 2010 drama film Aftershock depicted how a family led their lives after the earthquake. 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Chen Yuxuan Liu Mian Wang Hui 625–645 10.1029/2020JB021395 2021 Aftershocks and Background Seismicity in Tangshan and the Rest of North China Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126 5 2021JGRB..12621395C 234848679 . Wang Libo [王利波] 2009 Buried [掩埋] documentary, English subtitled Chinese Independent Film Archive, Newcastle University https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTm1M8rUJ3A CITEREFZeng 2005a Zeng Zimo [曾子墨] Phoenix Television 2005-10-13 zh:唐山地震二十九年祭（上） Tangshan 29th anniversary, Ep. 1) 社会能见度 documentary series Transcript, Ep.1 https://web.archive.org/web/20080517010614/http://blog.5d.cn/vip/laowen/200609/312169.html CITEREFZeng 2005b Zeng Zimo [曾子墨] Phoenix Television 2005-10-20 zh:唐山地震二十九年祭（下） Tangshan 29th anniversary, Ep. 2) 社会能见度 documentary series Transcript, Ep.2 https://web.archive.org/web/20080517010624/http://blog.5d.cn/vip/laowen/200609/312188.html Further reading Qian Gang. The Great China Earthquake. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1989. 0835122271. James Palmer. Heaven Cracks, Earth Shakes: The Tangshan Earthquake and the Death of Mao's China. New York: Basic Books, 2011. 978-0-465-01478-1 (hardcover alk. paper) 9780465023493 (ebk. alk. paper). Report on The Great Tangshan Earthquake of 1976 https://web.archive.org/web/20130504110153/http://authors.library.caltech.edu/26539/1/TangshanEQRept.htm 4 May 2013 : English translation of an extensive Chinese report from 1986. Knotts, Joey https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2019/12/05/tangshan-earthquake-felt-beijing-reminder-2nd-most-deadly-quake-last-century Beijing Tremors a Ghostly Reminder of Catastrophic 1976 Tangshan Quake The Beijinger 5 December 2019 External links "Integration of Public Administration and Earthquake Science: The Best Practice Case of Qinglong County" at GlobalWatch.org 711732 An isoseismal map (showing the different zones of shaking intensity) of the Tangshan earthquake can be found here https://web.archive.org/web/20201128134409/https://authors.library.caltech.edu/26539/1/Tangshan/Volume4.0_front_matter.pdf 28 November 2020 . Tangshan Tangshan Earthquake, 1976 Category:Earthquakes in Beijing Category:Earthquakes in Hebei Category:July 1976 in Asia Category:History of Tangshan Category:1976 disasters in China Category:Strike-slip earthquakes