2004 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2004 U.S. House elections May 2022 2004 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2002 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2002 2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2006 The 2004 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2004, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place alongside the simultaneous presidential election. The winners served in the 105th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995. Predictions on overall outcome Sabato's Crystal Ball In November 2004, Sabato projected the Democrats would take 203 seatsAn independent caucuses with the Democrats, and the Republicans 232.2004 House http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/house/?view Sabato's Crystal Ball 3 November 2004 24 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20041111091413/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/house/?view 11 November 2004 Cook Political Report In November 2004, Cook Political Report projected the Democrats would take 196 seatsAn independent caucuses with the Democrats, the Republicans 223, and there were 16 tossups.2004 Competitive House Race Chart http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2004_house_chart_oct29.pdf House: Race Ratings Cook Political Report 29 October 2004 21 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20060510004528/http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2004_house_chart_oct29.pdf 10 May 2006 Election ratings Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election. Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races that were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name. DistrictIncumbent Previousresult Sabato's Crystal BallNovember 1, 2004 The Cook Political ReportOctober 29, 2004 Winner AZ 1 X Rick Renzi (R) 49.21% R Tilt R Lean R Rick Renzi (R) CA 20 X Cal Dooley (D) (retiring) 63.70% D Safe D Lean D Jim Costa (D) CO 3 X Scott McInnis (R) (retiring) 65.84% R Lean D flip Tossup John Salazar (D) CO 4 X Marilyn Musgrave (R) 54.94% R Safe R Likely R Marilyn Musgrave (R) CO 7 X Bob Beauprez (R) 47.34% R Lean R Lean R Bob Beauprez (R) CT 2 X Rob Simmons (R) 54.09% R Safe R Tossup Rob Simmons (R) CT 4 X Chris Shays (R) 64.43% R Safe R Tossup Chris Shays (R) FL 2 X Allen Boyd (D) 66.90% D Safe D Likely D Allen Boyd (D) FL 13 X Katherine Harris (R) 54.79% R Safe R Likely R Katherine Harris (R) GA 3 X Jim Marshall (D) 50.51% D Lean D Lean D Jim Marshall (D) GA 12 X Max Burns (R) 55.19% R Tilt D flip Tossup John Barrow (D) IL 8 X Phil Crane (R) 57.34% R Lean R Tossup Melissa Bean (D) IN 2 X Chris Chocola (R) 50.45% R Safe R Likely R Chris Chocola (R) IN 8 X John Hostettler (R) 51.31% R Lean R Lean R John Hostettler (R) IN 9 X Baron Hill (D) 51.15% D Lean D Lean D Mike Sodrel (R) IA 1 X Jim Nussle (R) 57.27% R Safe R Likely R Jim Nussle (R) IA 3 X Leonard Boswell (D) 53.43% D Lean D Lean D Leonard Boswell (D) KS 2 X Jim Ryun (R) 60.42% R Safe R Likely R Jim Ryun (R) KS 3 X Dennis Moore (D) 50.18% D Lean D Lean D Dennis Moore (D) KY 3 X Anne Northup (R) 52.61% R Lean R Lean R Anne Northup (R) KY 4 X Ken Lucas (D) (retiring) 51.11% D Tilt R flip Tossup Geoff Davis (R) LA 3 X Billy Tauzin (R) (retiring) 86.68% R Lean R Tossup Charlie Melançon (D) LA 7 X Chris John (D) (retiring) 86.82% D Tilt R flip Tossup Charles Boustany (R) ME 2 X Mike Michaud (D) 52.01% D Safe D Likely D Mike Michaud (D) MN 2 X John Kline (R) 53.39% R Safe R Likely R John Kline (R) MN 6 X Mark Kennedy (R) 57.41% R Safe R Lean R Mark Kennedy (R) MO 5 X Karen McCarthy (D) (retiring) 65.88% D Safe D Tossup Emanuel Cleaver (D) NE 1 X Doug Bereuter (R) (retiring) 85.35% R Lean R Lean R Jeff Fortenberry (R) NE 2 X Lee Terry (R) 63.32% R Safe R Likely R Lee Terry (R) NV 3 X Jon Porter (R) 56.08% R Safe R Lean R Jon Porter (R) NH 2 X Charlie Bass (R) 56.84% R Safe R Likely R Charlie Bass (R) NJ 7 X Mike Ferguson (R) 57.95% R Safe R Likely R Mike Ferguson (R) NM 1 X Heather Wilson (R) 55.34% R Safe R Tossup Heather Wilson (R) NM 2 X Steve Pearce (R) 56.26% R Safe R Likely R Steve Pearce (R) NY 1 X Tim Bishop (D) 50.23% D Lean D Lean D Tim Bishop (D) NY 27 X Jack Quinn (R) (retiring) 69.06% R Tilt R Tossup Brian Higgins (D) NY 29 X Amo Houghton (R) (retiring) 73.10% R Safe R Likely R Randy Kuhl (R) NC 11 X Charles H. Taylor (R) 55.54% R Safe R Lean R Charles H. Taylor (R) ND AL X Earl Pomeroy (D) 52.41% D Safe D Lean D Earl Pomeroy (D) OR 1 X David Wu (D) 62.69% D Lean D Lean D David Wu (D) OR 5 X Darlene Hooley (D) 54.75% D Safe D Likely D Darlene Hooley (D) PA 6 X Jim Gerlach (R) 51.37% R Lean R Lean R Jim Gerlach (R) PA 8 X Jim Greenwood (R) (retiring) 62.59% R Safe R Lean R Mike Fitzpatrick (R) PA 13 X Joe Hoeffel (D) (retiring) 50.95% D Lean D Lean D Allyson Schwartz (D) PA 15 X Pat Toomey (R) (retiring) 57.36% R Lean R Likely R Charlie Dent (R) PA 17 X Tim Holden (D) (retiring) 51.41% D Lean D Likely D Tim Holden (D) SD AL X Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 50.57% D Lean D Lean D Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) TN 4 X Lincoln Davis (D) 52.10% D Safe D Likely D Lincoln Davis (D) TX 1 X Max Sandlin (D) 56.45% D Lean R flip Tossup Louie Gohmert (R) TX 2 X Nick Lampson (D) 60.85% D Lean R flip Tossup Ted Poe (R) TX 17 X Chet Edwards (D) 51.36% D Lean D Tossup Chet Edwards (D) TX 19 X Randy Neugebauer (R) 91.64% R Lean R Lean R Randy Neugebauer (R) TX 32 X Pete Sessions (R) 67.77% R Tilt R Tossup Pete Sessions (R) UT 2 X Jim Matheson (D) 49.43% D Lean D Lean D Jim Matheson (D) VA 2 X Ed Schrock (R) (retiring) 83.45% R Safe R Lean R Thelma Drake (R) VA 9 X Rick Boucher (D) 65.77% D Safe D Likely D Rick Boucher (D) WA 5 X George Nethercutt (R) (retiring) 62.66% R Lean R Lean R Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) WA 8 X Jennifer Dunn (R) (retiring) 59.82% R Tilt R Tossup Dave Reichert (R) Overall | | R - 232D - 203An independent caucuses with the Democrats | | R - 223D - 196An independent caucuses with the Democrats 16 tossups | | R - 232D - 203An independent caucuses with the Democrats Notes References * House