2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

2000 United States Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire June 2025 September 2023 2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary Iowa File:Flag of New Hampshire.svg presidential no 1996 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary 1996 2004 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary 2004 2000 02 01 17 pledged Republican National Convention delegates IA HI image:John McCain.jpg 150x150px John McCain #ffff00 Arizona 10 115,606 48.53% image:Official Portrait- President George Walker Bush, 43rd President of the United States, Republican - DPLA - 7482eac0e113bf03014d1686a3733f97.jpeg George W. Bush FF3333 Texas 5 72,330 30.36% Image:Steve Forbes (1).jpg Steve Forbes 305c88 New York 2 30,166 12.66% Image:Alan Keyes (1).jpg Alan Keyes 812939 Maryland 0 15,179 6.37% 2000_New_Hampshire_Republican_Presidential_Primaries.svg 250px County resultsMcCain: #FFD42A McCain 40-50% #D4AA00 McCain 50-60% ffff00 FF3333 The 2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary took place on February 1, 2000. New Hampshire traditionally served as the second state in a presidential primary cycle, after the Iowa. Senator John McCain of Arizona who had diverted resources from Iowa to focus on securing victory in New Hampshire, won a surprising victory, defeating the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, Governor George W. Bush of Texas.Richard L. Berke McCain Romps in First Primary; Gore Wins, Edging out Bradley The New York Times February 2, 2000 https://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/02/us/2000-campaign-republicans-mccain-romps-first-primary-gore-wins-edging-bradley.html October 28, 2023Dan Balz McCain Stuns Bush in N.H. Primary The Washington Post February 2, 2000 https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/2000-02/02/012r-020200-idx.html October 28, 2023 Background Historical context New Hampshire's presidential primary had served as a crucial early test for presidential candidates since 1920. The state's traditional position following the Iowa caucuses had created a unique political environment where retail politics dominated, requiring candidates to engage in intimate town hall meetings and direct voter interactions. This tradition would prove particularly significant in the 2000 campaign.Johnson Richard New Hampshire Primary: America's First Look at Presidential Contenders Political Science Quarterly 115 2 2000 201-218 Pre-primary campaign The 2000 primary field featured several prominent Republican candidates, led by Texas Governor George W. Bush, who entered the race with substantial financial resources and broad establishment support. As the son of former President George H. W. Bush, he carried both the advantages and potential drawbacks of his family name. Senator John McCain positioned himself as a maverick reformer, while publishing executive Steve Forbes returned for a second campaign after his 1996 bid. The field also included former diplomat Alan Keyes and social conservative activist Gary Bauer. McCain's campaign strategy centered on his "Straight Talk Express" bus tour, which became the defining symbol of his New Hampshire campaign. During his intensive focus on the state, McCain conducted more than 114 town hall meetings, a stark contrast to Bush's 36 days of campaigning in the state. McCain's emphasis on campaign finance reform, government reform, and his compelling biography as a Vietnam War veteran and former prisoner of war resonated strongly with New Hampshire voters. Campaign dynamics Strategy and messaging The McCain campaign's emphasis on direct voter engagement through the "Straight Talk Express" created a media phenomenon that transformed the race. Reporters received unprecedented access to the candidate, leading to extensive favorable coverage that helped shape McCain's image as an authentic, accessible candidate. The constant media presence on his campaign bus created a narrative of transparency and openness that contrasted with the more controlled environment of the Bush campaign. Bush's campaign stressed his record as Texas governor and promoted his "compassionate conservative" platform, emphasizing tax cuts, education reform, and social conservative values. However, his decision to skip two in-state debates and his relatively limited public appearances in New Hampshire would later be cited as crucial strategic errors. The presence of his father on the campaign trail, while intended to showcase family strength, inadvertently reinforced criticisms that he was overly reliant on his family's political legacy. Opinion polling Poll sourceDate(s)Sample sizeJohn McCain (R)George W. Bush (R)Steve Forbes (R)Other / undecidedCalculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other listed candidates combined. For polls that do not report a figure for Forbes, this includes his support. pollingGallupFiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings Raw Polls File https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fivethirtyeight/data/refs/heads/master/pollster-ratings/2023/raw-polls.csv October 15, 2026 GitHub FiveThirtyEightJanuary 31, 200088844%32%13%11%University of New Hampshire Survey CenterJanuary 31, 200040041%34%13%12%Zogby AnalyticsJanuary 31, 200081341%31%—28%American Research GroupJanuary 30, 200060036%38%16%10%Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesJanuary 30, 2000502Average of multiple versions or turnout models listed in the poll; the source dataset gives the sample size as 501.5. polling38%32%12%18%KRC ResearchJanuary 30, 200040038%34%—28%Zogby AnalyticsJanuary 30, 200060039%34%13%14%CBS News/The New York TimesJanuary 29, 200045039%35%10%16%Franklin Pierce UniversityJanuary 29, 200050640%29%15%16%Quinnipiac UniversityJanuary 29, 200060639%29%—32%RKM Research and Communications Inc.January 29, 200041239%31%11%19%SurveyUSAJanuary 29, 200088141%35%—24%University of MassachusettsJanuary 29, 200040037%28%15%20%GallupJanuary 28, 2000600Sample size unavailable; 600 is a default estimate used in the source dataset. polling39%34%15%12%KRC ResearchJanuary 28, 200040037%36%—27%Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyJanuary 28, 200042836%35%15%14%Yankelovich Partners Inc.January 28, 200050039%37%—24%American Research GroupJanuary 27, 200060036%34%17%13%University of New Hampshire Survey CenterJanuary 27, 200040041%33%16%10%Zogby AnalyticsJanuary 27, 200060038%32%12%18%CBS News/The New York TimesJanuary 26, 200039736%31%15%18%KRC ResearchJanuary 26, 200040036%31%—33%Dartmouth CollegeJanuary 25, 200043637%34%15%14%Franklin Pierce UniversityJanuary 25, 200044738%30%13%19%GallupJanuary 25, 200058940%35%14%11%RKM Research and Communications Inc.January 25, 200040432%27%16%25% Results +Primary results2000 Presidential Republican Primary Election Results - New Hampshire https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2000&fips=33&f=0&off=0&elect=2 2023-06-19 uselectionatlas U.S. Election Atlas Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates John McCain 115,606 48.53% 10 George W. Bush 72,330 30.36% 5 Steve Forbes 30,166 12.66% 2 Alan Keyes 15,179 6.37% 0 Gary Bauer 566 0.69% 0 Total 237,640 100% 17 Analysis McCain's victory marked the largest margin in the New Hampshire primary since Ronald Reagan's win in the 1980 campaign and represented a significant setback for the Bush campaign. Exit polling revealed that McCain dominated among independent voters, securing more than sixty percent of their support. These independent voters constituted forty percent of the primary electorate. Perhaps more surprisingly, McCain achieved parity with Bush among registered Republicans, a voting bloc the Bush campaign had considered their reliable base. The demographic breakdown showed McCain's particular strength among moderate voters, while Bush maintained an advantage with conservatives, though not by a sufficient margin to overcome McCain's broader coalition. Veterans and higher-education voters showed particular enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy, responding to his military service and reform message. Bush campaign officials attributed their defeat primarily to McCain's strategic decision to concentrate resources in New Hampshire while largely bypassing Iowa. Internal campaign assessments also suggested that Governor Bush's appearances with his father, former President George H. W. Bush, may have backfired by emphasizing dynasty politics over individual merit. The Voter News Service analysis showed that Bush's decision to skip two candidate debates had damaged his standing with local voters who traditionally expect significant personal attention from presidential candidates. Aftermath The Bush campaign responded to their New Hampshire defeat by pivoting to a more aggressive strategy focused on the upcoming South Carolina primary. This strategic shift would include a stronger emphasis on Bush's evangelical Christian faith and the deployment of more confrontational campaign tactics. The campaign also intensified its ground operations and voter outreach efforts in upcoming Southern primary states. Gary Bauer, following his disappointing showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire, withdrew from the race and endorsed John McCain, though this would prove insufficient to maintain McCain's momentum in later contests. The endorsement highlighted growing divisions within the social conservative movement, as other prominent conservatives, including Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, aligned with Bush.Social Conservative Leader Bauer Endorses McCain Los Angeles Times February 16, 2000 The primary results triggered a significant shift in campaign fundraising patterns. McCain's victory led to a surge in small-dollar donations through his newly established online platform, while Bush relied increasingly on his network of PAC supporters and traditional party donors.McCain Campaign Reports Surge in Online Donations The Washington Post February 4, 2000 Despite McCain's commanding victory in New Hampshire and a subsequent win in Michigan, Bush would eventually secure the Republican nomination through strong performances in the Southern primaries and support from the party establishment. Bush went on to win the presidency in the highly contested general election against Democratic nominee Al Gore.Wayne Stephen The Road to the White House 2000 2000 Palgrave Macmillan The aftermath of the New Hampshire primary also influenced the Democratic contest, as Bill Bradley's narrow loss to Al Gore in the concurrent Democratic primary effectively ended his chances of securing his party's nomination. The dual primaries highlighted New Hampshire's continuing role as a crucial early test in presidential politics, capable of both validating frontrunners and enabling surprising insurgent victories. Legacy The 2000 New Hampshire primary has become a case study in the importance of retail politics and the potential vulnerability of establishment frontrunners in early primary states. McCain's "Straight Talk Express" established a new standard for media access in presidential campaigns, though few candidates have since attempted to replicate its open-access model. The primary also demonstrated the continuing significance of independent voters in New Hampshire's open primary system, a factor that continues to influence campaign strategies in subsequent election cycles. See also 2000 United States presidential election 2000 Republican Party presidential primaries 2000 South Carolina Republican presidential primary 2000 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary References Notes Further reading Johnson, Richard. "New Hampshire Primary: America's First Look at Presidential Contenders." Political Science Quarterly 115.2 (2000): 201-218. Smith, Andrew. "The First Primary: New Hampshire's Outsize Role in Presidential Nominations." University Press of New England, 2015. Republican primary New Hampshire Category:New Hampshire Republican primaries