2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

none June 2025 March 2019 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa Iowa Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in Iowa 2000 2008 United States presidential election in Iowa 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 7 751,957 49.90% John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 0 741,898 49.23% 280px County results 280px Congressional district results Bush #f2b3be 40–50% #e27f90 50–60% #cc2f4a 60–70% #d40000 70–80% #aa0000 80–90% Kerry #b9d7ff 40–50% #86b6f2 50–60% #4389e3 60–70% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate, Vice President Dick Cheney, against Democratic challenger and Senator from Massachusetts John F. Kerry and his running mate, Senator from North Carolina John Edwards. Six third parties were also on the ballot. Iowa was won by President George W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, or 10,059 votes, despite losing the state to Al Gore four years earlier. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. The Democrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000, when Gore had won the state by only 0.32%, or 4,144 votes, a much weaker margin compared to the prior three elections. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis won the state by 10.21% even in an otherwise Republican landslide year, and Bill Clinton carried the state by 6.02% in 1992 and 10.34% in 1996. Iowa was one of just two states, along with New Mexico, to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although it was won both times by less than 1%. Iowa was one of two states to be won by George W. Bush in at least one of his presidential runs that his father George H. W. Bush never carried, the other being West Virginia. Bush became the first Republican to win Iowa since Ronald Reagan had done so in 1984. As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last time any candidate won Iowa by only a plurality and/or by a less than 1% margin. Until 2020, this was also the last time Iowa did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Wisconsin. This election marked a new streak of Iowa voting for the winning ticket in every election along with Florida and Ohio until 2020, when all three voted for the losing candidate. Bush is also the only U.S. president to win the White House without Iowa and then carry it upon winning re-election. This is the opposite of Woodrow Wilson and FDR, the only two presidents to have carried Iowa upon winning office but lost it upon winning re-election.FDR won Iowa in 1932 and 1936, but lost it in 1940 and 1944 Caucuses 2004 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.DC Political report. 2004 +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportLean DAssociated PressToss-upCNNLikely R FlipCook Political ReportToss-upNewsweekLean R FlipNew York TimesLean R FlipRasmussen ReportsToss-upResearch 2000Lean DWashington PostToss-upWashington TimesToss-upZogby InternationalLikely DWashington DispatchLikely D Polling Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory.http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=19 2004 Presidential Election Polls. Iowa Polls US Election Atlas The final RealClearPolitics average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% to Kerry at 47.1% and Nader at 1.0%.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/ia_polls.html RealClear Politics - Polls Fundraising Bush raised $671,335.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Kerry raised $449,980.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President Advertising and visits The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/IA/ CNN CNN.com Specials Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN CNN.com Specials Analysis Kerry's strength in the state lay in the highly populated counties of Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Scott (Davenport), Johnson (Iowa City), and Black Hawk (Waterloo). Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, gave Kerry 64.01% of its vote, Kerry's best performance in the state. However, Kerry also did well in a series of rural and small-town counties in northeastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River, many of which had been traditionally Democratic since at least the 1980s.Lounsbury Jud 2016-12-16 Pssst...Trump: You Won By Running to Clinton's Left https://progressive.org/%3Fq%3Dnode/189120/ 2020-11-30 Progressive.org en-us He won eight of the ten counties along the Mississippi River, including Dubuque County, which had given Gore his margin in the state in 2000. The 1st and 2nd congressional districts were both carried by Kerry, despite being represented by Republicans in Congress.Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project http://swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/presidential-results-by-congressional-district-20002008 2020-11-22 en-US Dubuque is located within the 1st district while the 2nd district contains Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Muscatine.Lewis Jeffrey B. DeVine Brandon Martis Kenneth C. Pritcher Lincoln 2013 Digital Boundary Definitions of United States Congressional Districts, 1789-2012 http://cdmaps.polisci.ucla.edu/ November 22, 2020 University of California at Los Angeles October 20, 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20141020123304/http://cdmaps.polisci.ucla.edu/ dead However, Bush performed respectably even in areas of Democratic strength; in only two counties did he obtain less than 40% of the vote. Additionally, he was able to offset Kerry's strength in the population centers and in the northeast and Mississippi River counties with landslide margins in a series of rural counties in the west of the state, as well as by dominating the state's south. Bush's best performance in the state was in Sioux County, where he won with 85.87% of the vote. His raw vote margin in Sioux County of 11,970 votes alone was greater than his raw vote margin over Kerry statewide.http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Bush won three congressional districts in the state: the 3rd district, home to the Democratic city of Des Moines and its Republican suburbs, gave Bush a razor thin 50–50 margin, despite re-electing Democrat Leonard Boswell to Congress. The 4th district also gave Bush a narrow margin, giving him 51% of the vote. The now obsolete 5th district in the western part of the state was home to Iowa's most Republican areas, having elected Steve King to Congress in 2002; it gave Bush a landslide 21-point margin. In terms of counties carried, both candidates flipped counties. Bush flipped four that voted for Gore in 2000, while Kerry flipped five that voted for Bush in 2000.2000 Presidential General Election Results - Iowa https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2000&fips=19&f=0&off=0&elect=0 November 22, 2020 Dave Leip's Election Atlas This election coincided with the 2004 United States Senate election in Iowa, where Republican Chuck Grassley was effortlessly re-elected with 70.83% of the vote.Iowa Election 2004 Results, News and Polls for the Senate race. View the latest election results, news and polls. Conservative election commentary https://townhall.com/election/2004/senate/ia/county https://web.archive.org/web/20150912162457/http://townhall.com/election/2004/senate/ia/county dead September 12, 2015 2020-11-22 Townhall en Iowa would return to the Democratic column in the next two elections, voting for Barack Obama by 9.54% in 2008 and 5.81% in 2012. However, it would return to the Republican column since then when Donald Trump won the state by 9.41% in 2016 and 8.30% in 2020. In 2024, Trump won the state by 13.21%, the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since Ronald Reagan's in 1980. Results 2004 United States presidential election in IowaPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Richard Cheney (incumbent) 751,957 49.90% 7 Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 741,898 49.23% 0 Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 5,973 0.40% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,992 0.20% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 1,304 0.09% 0 Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche 1,141 0.08% 0 N/A Write-ins – 1,094 0.07% 0 Socialist Workers James Harris Margaret Trowe 373 0.02% 0 Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence 176 0.01% 0 Totals 1,506,908 100% 7 Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 67%/76% By county CountyGeorge W. BushRepublicanJohn KerryDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Adair2,40256.15%1,84443.10%320.75%55813.05%4,278Adams1,31756.65%97742.02%311.33%34014.63%2,325Allamakee3,53049.99%3,44948.84%831.18%811.15%7,062Appanoose3,34051.78%3,06347.49%470.73%2774.29%6,450Audubon1,95854.51%1,60844.77%260.73%3509.74%3,592Benton6,65849.31%6,74749.97%960.72%-89-0.66%13,501Black Hawk28,04643.89%35,39255.38%4690.73%-7,346-11.49%63,907Boone6,87049.04%7,02750.16%1120.80%-157-1.12%14,009Bremer6,66552.16%6,02547.15%890.70%6405.01%12,779Buchanan4,79745.79%5,60853.54%700.67%-811-7.75%10,475Buena Vista4,88757.56%3,52041.46%830.98%1,36716.10%8,490Butler4,41759.09%3,00140.15%570.76%1,41618.94%7,475Calhoun3,25558.73%2,24340.47%440.80%1,01218.26%5,542Carroll5,76254.75%4,68944.56%730.69%1,07310.19%10,524Cass4,79663.58%2,67935.52%680.90%2,11728.06%7,543Cedar4,86950.23%4,74748.97%780.80%1221.26%9,694Cerro Gordo10,96044.71%13,37254.54%1840.75%-2,412-9.83%24,516Cherokee3,75855.30%2,98843.97%500.73%77011.33%6,796Chickasaw3,04044.67%3,70854.48%580.86%-668-9.81%6,806Clarke2,20048.18%2,32350.88%430.94%-123-2.70%4,566Clay4,89857.03%3,54741.30%1431.67%1,35115.73%8,588Clayton4,31247.03%4,73651.66%1201.31%-424-4.63%9,168Clinton10,66643.21%13,81355.96%2050.83%-3,147-12.75%24,684Crawford3,95554.61%3,22044.46%670.92%73510.15%7,242Dallas15,18357.75%10,91741.52%1930.74%4,26616.23%26,293Davis2,14854.82%1,73144.18%391.00%41710.64%3,918Decatur2,08852.06%1,85946.35%641.59%2295.71%4,011Delaware4,90853.35%4,22745.95%650.71%6817.40%9,200Des Moines8,22139.38%12,45659.67%1970.94%-4,235-20.29%20,874Dickinson5,33755.87%4,14043.34%760.80%1,19712.53%9,553Dubuque20,10042.73%26,56156.46%3820.81%-6,461-13.73%47,043Emmet2,69752.31%2,40546.64%541.04%2925.67%5,156Fayette5,12849.35%5,18549.89%790.76%-57-0.54%10,392Floyd3,74545.86%4,34953.25%730.89%-604-7.39%8,167Franklin3,12856.66%2,34042.38%530.96%78814.28%5,521Fremont2,36260.39%1,51038.61%391.00%85221.78%3,911Greene2,61851.20%2,45948.09%360.70%1593.11%5,113Grundy4,42964.67%2,38634.84%340.50%2,04329.83%6,849Guthrie3,32555.47%2,61443.61%550.92%71111.86%5,994Hamilton4,36752.39%3,89546.73%730.88%4725.66%8,335Hancock3,36857.04%2,48442.07%530.89%88414.97%5,905Hardin4,87554.48%4,01544.87%590.66%8609.61%8,949Harrison4,68060.94%2,90637.84%941.23%1,77423.10%7,680Henry5,22055.20%4,12743.64%1101.16%1,09311.56%9,457Howard2,02843.18%2,61455.65%551.17%-586-12.47%4,697Humboldt3,16259.10%2,14640.11%420.79%1,01618.99%5,350Ida2,34262.06%1,41537.49%170.45%92724.57%3,774Iowa4,54453.75%3,84145.43%690.82%7038.32%8,454Jackson4,24242.37%5,65656.50%1131.13%-1,414-14.13%10,011Jasper9,46247.16%10,43051.99%1700.84%-968-4.83%20,062Jefferson3,64844.05%4,49054.22%1431.73%-842-10.17%8,281Johnson22,71534.75%41,84764.01%8111.24%-19,132-29.26%65,373Jones4,83448.45%5,05450.65%900.90%-220-2.20%9,978Keokuk3,11956.92%2,29441.86%671.22%82515.06%5,480Kossuth5,04254.46%4,13244.63%840.91%9109.83%9,258Lee7,47241.84%10,15256.85%2341.32%-2,680-15.01%17,858Linn49,44244.65%60,44254.58%8560.77%-11,000-9.93%110,740Louisa2,57252.32%2,29746.72%470.96%2755.60%4,916Lucas2,54355.63%1,98743.47%410.90%55612.16%4,571Lyon4,75177.87%1,30321.36%470.77%3,44856.51%6,101Madison4,53856.70%3,38042.23%861.07%1,15814.47%8,004Mahaska6,85863.93%3,79035.33%800.74%3,06828.60%10,728Marion9,99059.83%6,57439.37%1320.79%3,41620.46%16,696Marshall9,55749.87%9,44349.27%1640.85%1140.60%19,164Mills4,55665.65%2,30833.26%761.10%2,24832.39%6,940Mitchell2,64648.28%2,78550.82%490.90%-139-2.54%5,480Monona2,57551.32%2,39747.77%460.92%1783.55%5,018Monroe2,06752.16%1,85546.81%411.03%2125.35%3,963Montgomery3,60164.81%1,89934.18%561.01%1,70230.63%5,556Muscatine9,02048.19%9,54250.98%1550.83%-522-2.79%18,717O'Brien5,32868.92%2,33030.14%730.95%2,99838.78%7,731Osceola2,29570.27%93428.60%371.14%1,36141.67%3,266Page5,24369.79%2,21129.43%590.78%3,03240.36%7,513Palo Alto2,67451.51%2,48247.81%350.68%1923.70%5,191Plymouth7,81063.90%4,27835.00%1341.09%3,53228.90%12,222Pocahontas2,44156.60%1,82242.24%501.16%61914.36%4,313Polk95,82847.29%105,21851.93%1,5720.77%-9,390-4.64%202,618Pottawattamie24,55858.72%16,90640.43%3560.85%7,65218.29%41,820Poweshiek4,96549.20%5,04349.98%830.83%-78-0.78%10,091Ringgold1,46652.77%1,28646.29%260.93%1806.48%2,778Sac3,12858.21%2,21541.22%310.57%91316.99%5,374Scott39,95848.30%42,12250.92%6420.77%-2,164-2.62%82,722Shelby4,25663.81%2,35535.31%590.88%1,90128.50%6,670Sioux14,22985.87%2,25913.63%820.49%11,97072.24%16,570Story20,81946.63%23,29652.17%5371.20%-2,477-5.54%44,652Tama4,45649.51%4,48749.85%580.65%-31-0.34%9,001Taylor1,90859.81%1,25239.25%300.93%65620.56%3,190Union3,16552.94%2,74745.95%661.10%4186.99%5,978Van Buren2,21157.64%1,56840.88%571.48%64316.76%3,836Wapello7,40344.31%9,12554.62%1791.07%-1,722-10.31%16,707Warren12,16052.75%10,73046.54%1630.70%1,4306.21%23,053Washington5,97755.92%4,59542.99%1161.08%1,38212.93%10,688Wayne1,73355.31%1,37944.02%210.67%35411.29%3,133Webster8,95948.09%9,56151.32%1110.60%-602-3.23%18,631Winnebago3,17553.34%2,70745.48%701.17%4687.86%5,952Winneshiek5,32449.37%5,35449.65%1060.98%-30-0.28%10,784Woodbury22,45150.80%21,45548.55%2890.66%9962.25%44,195Worth1,79543.54%2,28655.45%421.01%-491-11.91%4,123Wright3,63154.99%2,93044.37%420.63%70110.62%6,603Totals751,95749.90%741,89849.23%13,0530.87%10,0590.67%1,506,908 right 240px Swing by county Legend #00a1c8 Democratic — +>15% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% 240px Trend by county Legend #00a1c8 Democratic — +>15% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% 240px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold #0671b0 Flip Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cedar (largest city: Tipton) Greene (largest city: Jefferson) Louisa (largest city: Wapello) Winnebago (largest city: Forest City) Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Fayette (largest city: Oelwein) Jasper (largest city: Newton) Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield) Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell) Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah) By congressional district Bush won three of five congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. Kerry won two held by Republicans.Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project http://swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/presidential-results-by-congressional-district-20002008 2020-11-22 en-US District Bush Kerry RepresentativeIowa 1 1st 46% 53%Jim NussleIowa 2 2nd 44% 55%Jim LeachIowa 3 3rd 49.7% 49.6%Leonard BoswellIowa 4 4th 51% 48%Tom LathamIowa 5 5th 60% 39%Steve King Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney.https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/ The Electoral College May 20, 2019 Julie Hosch Velma Huebner Don Racheter Marilyn Bose Don Kass Dorothy Schlitter Wanda Sears See also United States presidential elections in Iowa Notes References http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2004/general/CanvassSummary.pdf Canvass Summary: Official Results 20 January 2009 State of Iowa December 6, 2004 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20071113213421/http://votesmart.org/bio.php?can_id=32551 November 13, 2007 http://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2004/general/TurnoutStatistics.pdf Turnout Statistics 20 January 2009 State of Iowa December 6, 2004 November 30, 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081130072905/https://www.sos.state.ia.us/pdfs/elections/2004/general/TurnoutStatistics.pdf dead Iowa 2004 Presidential