2015 Canning by-election

Australian federal by-election April 2024 November 2020 2015 Canning by-election Australia Parliamentary no 2013 Australian federal election 2013 19 September 2015 2016 Australian federal election 2016 79.53% 12.48 112,809 The Canning seat in the House of Representatives Andrew Hastie Anastasia Lin and Andrew Hastie MP in Parliamentary Offices 4 December 2018 (DB) (cropped).jpg Liberal Party of Australia 39,712 46.92% 4.15 Matt Keogh Matt Keogh 2023.jpg Australian Labor Party 30,096 35.56% 8.92 TPP 55.26% 44.74% TPP swing 6.55 6.55 File:Division of Canning 2010.png The Division of Canning covered southeastern parts of the Perth metropolitan area and Western Australia's Peel region. MP Don Randall Liberal Andrew Hastie Liberal The 2015 Canning by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives on Saturday 19 September. The by-election in the seat of Canning was triggered by the death of sitting Liberal MP Don Randall on 21 July 2015.Death of federal MP opens way for by-election in WA seat of Canning ABC News 22 July 2015 Speaker of the House of Representatives Tony Smith issued the writ for the by-election on 17 August 2015. Due to the requirement that the by-election must be held with at least 33 days' notice, the date set for polling day was the earliest possible day for holding it: 19 September.Causes and Timing of Federal By-elections 1992–2015: Antony Green's Election Blog, ABC The electoral roll in Canning closed on 24 August and candidate nominations closed on 27 August.Smith Tony C2015G01318 – Issue of the writ for the Canning by-election https://www.comlaw.gov.au/Details/C2015G01318 Commonwealth of Australia Gazette 17 August 2015 Twelve candidates contested the election. Edith Cowan University political analyst Harry Phillips said despite the Liberals holding Canning since the 2001 election, it would still be a "hotly contested seat". Candidates 12 candidates in ballot paper orderTwelve candidates to contest the 2015 Canning by-election http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2015/08-28e.htm Australian Electoral Commission 28 August 2015 Party CandidateBackground  Palmer United Vimal Sharma Mining executive for Mineralogy, stood for Cowan at the 2013 federal election.Palmer United Party picks Vimal Sharma as Canning candidate 21 August 2015 The Australian http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/palmer-united-party-picks-vimal-sharma-as-canning-candidate/story-fn59niix-1227493162841October 2026 medicmedicPUP's Clive Palmer lets slip Canning candidate Vimal Sharma on Radio 6PR WAtoday 21 August 2015  Liberal Democrats Connor Whittle Draughtsman from Bunbury.Aston Heath Liberal Democrat candidate in Canning a spanner in the works for Liberal Andrew Hastie http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-democrat-candidate-in-canning-a-spanner-in-the-works-for-liberal-andrew-hastie-20150827-gj8yp6.html 27 August 2015 The Age 27 August 2015  Pirate Michelle Allen Software development manager, contested the Senate in Western Australia at the 2014 special election.Vote like a Pirate Day! Pirate Party announces Canning by-election candidate – Pirate Party Australia 25 August 2015  Defence Veterans Greg Smith Public relations agent and athlete, former journalist and Australian Army major.Battlelines: Another former soldier steps forward for Canning byelection WAtoday Retrieved 26 August 2015  Animal Justice Katrina Love Lead Animal Justice candidate for the WA Senate election in 2013 and the 2014 WA special election.  Liberal Andrew Hastie Former SAS captain, resigned to contest the election, joined the Australian military in 2001 following the September 11 attacks.  Independent Teresa van Lieshout Perennial candidate, most recently at the 2014 Vasse state by-election finishing last of six on 1.4 percent. A warrant has been issued for her arrest.Young Emma Canning byelection: arrest warrant for Teresa van Lieshout after court no-show http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/canning-byelection-arrest-warrant-for-teresa-van-lieshout-after-court-noshow-20150908-gjhlcl.html 8 September 2015 WAtoday 8 September 2015  Labor Matt Keogh Commercial lawyer, President of the Western Australian Law Society until stepping down to contest the election. Member of the ALP since the age of 16.https://www.laborherald.com.au/politics/labor-nominations-open-for-canning-by-election-following-randalls-death/ Canning by-election: rolling coverage of September 19 vote Labor Herald 20 August 2015 https://web.archive.org/web/20160304235418/https://www.laborherald.com.au/politics/labor-nominations-open-for-canning-by-election-following-randalls-death/ 4 March 2016 dead Later elected to the Division of Burt in the 2016 federal election.  Greens Vanessa Rauland Lecturer at Curtin University, renewable energy advocate and small business owner.Holland Steve Greens announce Curtin lecturer Vanessa Rauland as Canning candidate http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/greens-announce-curtin-lectured-vanessa-rauland-as-canning-candidate-20150823-gj5kov.html 23 August 2015 WAtoday 23 August 2015  Family First Jim McCourt Candidate for Hasluck in 2010 and Fremantle in 2013.  Christians Jamie van Burgel Previously contested Canning in 2010, state Armadale in 2010 and 2013, and was lead Senate candidate for the Australian Christians in 2013.  Sustainable Population Angela Smith Environmental scientist. Law/Arts student at Murdoch University.Canning by-election | 19 September 2015 https://web.archive.org/web/20150902222829/http://www.votesustainable.org.au/canning 2 September 2015 – Sustainable Population Party. Retrieved 27 August 2015. How-to-vote cards How-to-vote cards are distributed to voters at polling stations to provide information with how the candidate suggests preferences be allocated. Candidates and parties which suggested preferences are shown in each column of the table below. 2015 Canning by-election http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/2015-canning/ ABC News 2015-11-02 The Sustainable Population Party ran an open card at this by-election. Palmer UnitedLiberal DemocratsPirateDefence VeteransAnimal JusticeLiberalvan LieshoutLaborGreensFamily FirstChristiansStable PopulationPalmer198No card76No card6665LDP2151157877Pirate32137821110ADVP436649746Animal Justice5421910399Liberal611912111932van Lieshout75121012121254Labor810751014811Greens9123211211212Family First106109331013Christians117118241121SPP128448551081 Polling issues Federal The Canning by-election was described by many commentators as a key test for the Abbott government and for the leadership of Prime Minister Tony Abbott.Grattan, Michelle: "Canning byelection test set for September", in The Conversation, 17 August 2015Hasham, Nicole: "Abbott government's popularity to be tested at expected Canning byelection after Don Randall's death" in The Sydney Morning Herald, 22 July 2015Morris, Sophie: "Canning heat for Abbott in byelection", in The Saturday Paper, 22 August 2015 On 14 September, Malcolm Turnbull won the leadership spill against Abbott.Liberal leadership spill: Malcolm Turnbull to become prime minister after toppling Tony Abbott http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-14/malcolm-turnbull-wins-liberal-leadership-ballot-over-tony-abbott/6775464 14 September 2015 ABC News 14 September 2015 In the lead-up to the spill, it was reported Foreign Minister Julie Bishop told Cabinet that Labor wanted the Liberals to win the seat of Canning, so Mr Abbott would not be ousted as prime minister, preferring to campaign against him at the next federal election.Prime Minister Tony Abbott declares leadership not tied to Canning by-election http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-spill-motion-threatens-to-end-tony-abbotts-time-as-prime-minister-20150206-137vvp.html 9 September 2015 News.Com National 2 September 2015 Earlier in the year, Western Australian backbenchers Luke Simpkins and Don Randall moved a leadership spill against Mr Abbott declaring he had disconnected from voters.Liberal MP spill motion threatens to end Tony Abbott's time as Prime Minister http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-spill-motion-threatens-to-end-tony-abbotts-time-as-prime-minister-20150206-137vvp.html 9 September 2015 The Sydney Morning Herald, Federal Politics online 6 February 2015 The prediction of a 10-point swing against the Liberals in the Canning by-election may have sparked a realisation in the Liberal party that something had to change.https://theconversation.com/turnbull-defeats-abbott-set-to-become-prime-minister-experts-respond-47499 Turnbull defeats Abbott, set to become prime minister: experts respond Dominic Kelly 14 September 2015 The Conversation Current speculation centres on what effect the leadership spill will have on the by-election.http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/liberal-leadership-spill-what-does-it-mean-for-the-canning-by-election/story-fnhocxo3-1227527082549?nk=182817c5b8c188f8b4cc5868513c6b27-1442224551 Liberal leadership spill: what does it mean for the Canning by-election? PerthNow 14 September 2015 2015-09-14 September 2019 InternetArchiveBot yes While Labor candidate Matt Keogh had begun to gain traction in the region, Turnbull's election "immediately boosted the numbers for the Liberals".http://www.smh.com.au//breaking-news-national/voting-begins-in-canning-byelection-20150919-432ok.html February 2022 However, analysis of the postal votes, which had been cast before the leadership change, show a similar swing as the polling day votes, indicating that the change in federal Liberal leadership had no effect.https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/sep/22/canning-postal-votes-show-change-in-liberal-leadership-did-not-help-andrew-hastie Canning postal votes show change in Liberal leadership did not help Hastie The Guardian 22 September 2015 Renewable energy The solar industry letter-boxed all electors to vote against the Liberal Party and support Labor, Greens and PUP in response to the federal government's intention to scrap the small-scale renewable energy target.Taylor, Lenore: "Canning byelection: solar industry urges voters to reject Liberals 'war on solar'" in The Guardian, 25 August 2015 The Greens chose renewable energy as one of their main campaign topics, by electing Curtin University sustainability lecturer Vanessa Rauland as their candidate.Mercer, Daniel: "Greens target education, energy", in The West Australian, 24 August 2015 An opinion poll conducted during the election campaign showed that 65% of voters would support a renewable energy target of 50% by 2030.Wahlquist, Calla: "Canning byelection poll: renewable energy trumps national security" in The Guardian, 3 September 2015 Same-sex marriage Same-sex marriage legislation was identified as an issue that might be decided by a conscience vote in federal parliament. The views of all Canning candidates were surveyed by the Australian Marriage Equality groupCarmody, Rebecca: "Canning by-election: Australian Christians give first preference to Liberal Andrew Hastie as 'reward' for same-sex marriage stance" in ABC News, 7 September 2015 and the Mandurah Mail.Hondros, Nathan: "Canning byelection – question time for candidates", in Mandurah Mail, 6 September 2015 Opposed to same-sex marriage were Andrew Hastie (Liberal), Jamie Van Burgel (Christians), Jim McCourt (Family First) and independent Teresa van Lieshout, while Vimal Sharma (Palmer United) did not answer the question. All other candidates supported same-sex marriage.Australian Marriage Equality: "Survey of Canning candidates position on marriage equality". Retrieved 8 September 2015 A survey conducted by ReachTel during the campaign showed 47% of the electorate in support and 41% opposed to same-sex marriage. Local Crime Police statistics in the lead-up to the by-election showed Armadale had one of the highest crime rates in the Perth metropolitan area.Canning by-election: Candidates urged to tackle crime, anti-social behaviour in electorate http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-26/canning-by-election-voters-speak/6723224 26 August 2015 ABC News online 26 August 2015 Liberal candidate Andrew Hastie cited crime as a top issue, alongside jobs, and pledged one of the first things he would do if elected would be to take action on methamphetamine and ice. Hastie blamed the previous Labor federal government for leaving a "huge fiscal hole". He advocated a combined "law enforcement and a compassionate community solution". He said, "I would look at bringing a whole bunch of stakeholders together, from law enforcement through to community councillors to educators to medical people and tackling ice head on." Labor candidate Matt Keogh also said crime and community safety were repeatedly raised by people in the electorate. He attacked the Abbott government, saying it had cut funding to crisis services and community groups dealing with ice and other drugs, domestic violence and social breakdown. Keogh said the Abbott government had stripped community organisations of certainty. Infrastructure funding The cities of Armadale and Cockburn joined forces to lobby the federal government to try to secure millions of dollars during the campaign to upgrade major road infrastructure. The two councils believed $300 million was needed to transform more of Armadale Road into a dual carriageway and to build a new bridge over Kwinana Freeway to link North Lake Road at Cockburn Central. The councils planned to letter drop householders voting in the Canning by-election urging them to email federal and state MPs to help secure the funding.Councils in Canning electorate push for $300m in road funding http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-24/councils-employ-lobbyist-to-raise-issues-in-canning-by-election/6720774 24 August 2015 ABC News online 26 August 2015 At the Labor Party state conference on 29 August, Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten promised to spend $170 million on infrastructure projects in Canning.Canning by-election: Bill Shorten makes $170m infrastructure promise at WA Labor state conference http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-29/shorten-pledges-170-million-for-canning-infrastructure/6734244 30 August 2015 ABC News online 29 August 2015 Voter demographics The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) announced 112,809 people were eligible to cast a vote in the by-election, after the electoral roll registration for the 19 September poll closed on 24 August. Almost half of those enrolled to vote in the by-election were aged 50 and over, reflecting the high number of retirees in the Western Australian electorate.Electoral roll shows extent of ageing population in Canning by-election http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-26/almost-half-of-voters-in-canning-byelection-are-aged-50-or-over/6727420 26 August 2015 ABC News online 26 August 2015 Just 10 per cent were aged 25 or younger. Polling places and postal voting The AEC planned 45 polling places for the by-election, with early postal voting from 25 August. The AEC planned three mobile voting teams on the day, including two teams to visit nursing homes and hospitals, and the third to visit Karnet Prison Farm in Serpentine. Polling 2016 Australian federal election#Opinion polls +Canning pollingDatePollPrimary voteTPP voteLIBALPGRNOTHLIBALP14 September 2015*ReachTELReachTEL 7 News – Canning Poll – 14 September 2015 https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-canning-poll-14september2015 14 September 2015 17 September 2015 47.6% 32.9% 6.4% 10.4%57%43%12 September 2015IpsosKenny Mark Fairfax-Ipsos poll points to Coalition win in Canning but Tony Abbott may face snap challenge http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/byelection-backlash-threatens-new-leadership-ructions-20150913-gjljtr.html 13 September 2015 The Sydney Morning Herald 13 September 2015 45% 36% 9% 10%52% 48%12 September 2015GalaxySpagnolo Joe Canning by-election: 'Safe' Liberal seat hit by voter backlash http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/canning-by-election-safe-liberal-seat-hit-by-voter-backlash/story-fnhocxo3-1227524443495 13 September 2015 PerthNow 13 September 2015 44% 36% 9% 11%52%48%28 August 2015*ReachTELhttps://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29378572/turnbull-canning-s-pm-choice/ Turnbull Canning's PM choice The West Australian online 29 August 2015 3 September 2015 47.7% 33.8% 8% 51%49%26 August 2015ReachTELhttps://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29348850/canning-poll-on-a-knife-edge/ Canning poll on a knife edge The West Australian 26 August 2015 26 August 2015 44% 30% 9% 17% 49.9%50.1%15–16 August 2015Newspollhttp://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-canning-by-election-looks-tight-as-liberals-support-sinks/story-fnc6vkbc-1227487556628 https://web.archive.org/web/20150824025619/http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-canning-by-election-looks-tight-as-liberals-support-sinks/story-fnc6vkbc-1227487556628 dead 24 August 2015 Newspoll: Canning by-election looks tight as Liberals' support sinks The Australian 18 August 2015 24 August 2015 41% 36% 11% 12%51%49%29 July 2015ReachTELhttps://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29305422/unions-rally-for-canning-byelection-push/?cmp=st Unions rally for Canning byelection push The West Australian 20 August 2015 24 August 201550.8%49.2% 2013 election 51.1% 26.6% 7.4% 14.9%61.8%38.2%* The poll conducted by ReachTEL on the night of 14 September (following Turnbull's election) had an "undecided" option. 2.6% chose this option.* The poll conducted by ReachTel on 28 August had an "undecided" option. 6.5% voted undecided and there were no options for other candidates. On 14 September, four days before the election and amid the rolling of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister of Australia, the ReachTel poll showed Liberal at a by-election campaign high of 57% compared to Labor at 43% on two party preferred vote. Previously, the ReachTEL poll published in The West Australian on 28 August, showed Liberal ahead 51% to 49%. The poll of 782 voters was commissioned by Australian Marriage Equality and WA director Brian Greig said the 62% support for gay marriage among undecided voters could decide the by-election. Days earlier, the ReachTEL poll published in The West Australian on 26 August, Labor was slightly ahead 50.1% to Liberal on 49.9%. The poll of 768 voters was commissioned by the union United Voice.Canning poll on a knife edge https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/29348850/canning-poll-on-a-knife-edge/ 26 August 2015 The West Australian online 26 August 2015 On 15–16 August 2015, 508 Canning voters (MoE of 4.3^) were polled by Newspoll via landline phone. Primary votes were Liberal 41% (−10.1), Labor 36% (+9.4), Greens 11% (+3.6), Palmer 2% (−4.9) and Others 10% (+2.0). Based on preference flows at the previous election (which have recently significantly favoured Liberal in national polling compared to respondent-allocated preferencesCoalition share of minor party and independent preferences: Nielsen, Morgan and Ipsos – The Poll Bludger), the two-party vote equated to Liberal 51% (−10.8) and Labor 49% (+10.8).Graphic: Canning by-election looks tight as Liberals' support sinks https://resources2.news.com.au/images/2015/08/17/1227487/556546-c29c0410-44d4-11e5-b2d3-561df385de2c.jpg 18 August 2015 The Australian 18 August 2015 Two-party-preferred history since 2001 Election:20012004200720102013 Liberal:50.4%59.5%55.6%52.2%61.8% Labor:49.6%40.5%44.4%47.8%38.2% Results Electoral results for the Division of Canning 2015 Canning by-electionhttp://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/2015-canning/ Australian Broadcasting Corporation 2015 Canning by-election Antony Green Antony Green 8 May 2019http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-18126-236.htm First Preferences and Two Candidate Preferred, 2015 Canning by-election Australian Electoral Commission https://web.archive.org/web/20151022074956/http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-18126-236.htm 22 October 2015 Andrew Hastie Liberal 39,712 46.92 −4.15 Matt Keogh Labor 30,096 35.56 +8.92 Vanessa Rauland Greens 4,967 5.87 −1.53 Vimal Sharma Palmer United Party 2,600 3.07 −3.81 Jamie van Burgel Australian Christians 2,433 2.87 −0.23 Katrina Love Animal Justice 1,195 1.41 +1.41 Michelle Allen Pirate 775 0.92 +0.92 Greg Smith Defence Veterans 690 0.82 +0.82 Jim McCourt Family First 623 0.74 −0.61 Teresa van Lieshout Independent 539 0.64 +0.64 Angela Smith Sustainable Population 513 0.61 +0.61 Connor Whittle Liberal Democrats 492 0.58 +0.58 84,635 94.34 −0.14 5,082 5.66 +0.14 89,717 79.53 −12.48 Andrew Hastie Liberal 46,772 55.26 −6.55 Matt Keogh Labor 37,863 44.74 +6.55 Liberal −6.55 Though the Turnbull government was just four days old, their candidate Andrew Hastie retained the seat for the Liberals, declared 24 September, despite having to rely on preferences after a substantial, though dampened, primary (−4.15) and two-party (−6.55) swing away from the Liberals − solidly less than the double-digit swings polls had predicted under an Abbott government − however, some double-digit swings did eventuate among the suburban booths in the north of the seat. The Canning Liberal margin was reduced from safe to marginal status. Political analysts agreed the by-election was a "good outcome for both major parties".Liberal and Labor parties hail success of campaigns: ABC 20 September 2015 See also List of Australian federal by-elections References External links 2015 Canning by-election: Antony Green ABC 2015 Canning by-election: AEC Category:2015 elections in Australia Category:Western Australian federal by-elections Category:2010s in Western Australia