2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

none June 2025 September 2023 2004 United States presidential election 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire New Hampshire presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in New Hampshire 2000 2008 United States presidential election in New Hampshire 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 4 340,511 50.24% George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 0 331,237 48.87% x280px County results x280px Municipality results x280px Congressional district results Kerry #b9d7ff 40–50% #86b6f2 50–60% #4389e3 60–70% #1666cb 70–80% #002b84 90–100% Bush #f2b3be 40–50% #e27f90 50–60% #cc2f4a 60–70% #D40000 70–80% #AA0000 80–90% No data #b3b3b3ff President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose four representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. New Hampshire was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 1.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a swing state. Traditionally a more Republican leaning state of the heavily Democratic New England region, it was the only state in the Northeast to vote Republican in 2000. The state is considered to be more fiscally conservative than its neighbors in New England. However, like the rest of New England, it is considerably more liberal on social issues, which benefits Democratic candidates. New Hampshire was the only state that George W. Bush won in 2000 but lost in 2004, making it the only state in the union to vote for the loser of the national popular vote in both of those elections. Bush became the first ever Republican incumbent to win New Hampshire only once and then win re-election without carrying the state, and also became the first Republican to ever win a presidential election without it. He was also the second consecutive Republican president (after his father) to lose New Hampshire in his second election after winning it in his first. This was also the first time since 1848 that a losing Democrat would carry New Hampshire, and the first time since 1976 that the state would back the losing candidate in a presidential election. This also marked the first of only three times overall (along with 2016 and 2024) in which any Republican won the White House without carrying New Hampshire. It is also the first time that a Republican has won the popular vote without carrying the state, with the second time being in 2024. And the only one to do so with a majorly of the popular vote. To date, this is the last election where the town of Mason voted for the Democratic candidate, and the last time Manchester—the largest city in the state—voted Republican. Primaries Democratic primary 2004 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary The 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was held on January 27, 2004. Taking place 8 days after the Iowa caucuses, it marked the second contest to take place during the Democratic party's 2004 primary season, as well as the first actual primary to take place. Polling Primary polling taken by American Research Group during the last few days of campaigning (January 23 to January 27, 2004) showed that former New Hampshire poll leader, as well as national leader Howard Dean, was steadily gaining ground to catch up to now front-runner John Kerry. Candidate January 23 to 25 poll tracking January 24 to 26 poll tracking John Kerry 38% 35% Howard Dean 20% 25% John Edwards 16% 15% Wesley Clark 15% 13% Joe Lieberman 5% 6% Gathered from ARG's 2004 NH Democratic Tracking Poll http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/demtrack04-30s.html 2004 NH Democratic Tracking Margin of Error +/- 4 Tracking polling showed that Dean had been catching up to Kerry in the days before the primary, cutting Kerry's 18 point lead to 10 points in a matter of days. With Dean dropping and Kerry rising, it became apparent that the battle for 1st place in New Hampshire would be close. Also, for third place, Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman were the only ones fighting for third. With Clark and Edwards both taking hits going into the primary, a Lieberman on the rise, the fight for 1st place and third place, according to polls would be intense. Results As results began to come in during Primary night, it became apparent Kerry had won the primary and was promptly projected the winner by several media outlets. Dean finished in second place. Clark and Edwards were in a dead-lock for third place, with both candidates at 12% during the night. Earlier returns showed Lieberman in a stronger position to tie with Clark and Edwards, allowing him to declare to his supporters that it was "a three-way split decision for third place.""Lieberman vows to keep running." CNN. 2004-01-28. Retrieved 2017-05-18. As final results were being tallied, Kerry won the primary with 84,277 votes and 38%, Dean finished second, with 57,761 and 26%, and Clark narrowly defeated Edwards for third place, with 27,314 votes and 12%. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/states/NH/ 2004 Primaries CNN Lieberman had fallen back in the count and didn't even reach 10%. Candidate Votes Percentage Potentialnationaldelegates John Kerry 84,377 38.35 12 Howard Dean 57,761 26.25 9 Wesley Clark 27,314 12.41 0 John Edwards 26,487 12.04 0 Joe Lieberman 18,911 8.59 0 Dennis Kucinich 3,114 01.42 0 Exit Polling Category All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Lieberman Male 46% 13% 25% 14% 36% 10% Female 54% 12% 26% 11% 41% 8% 18-64 Years 89% 12% 25% 13% 39% 8% 65+ Years 11% 10% 28% 10% 38% 13% Democrat 48% 11% 29% 12% 41% 5% Republican 4% 10% 8% 9% 29% 26% Independent 48% 13% 23% 13% 37% 12% Source: CNN.com 2004 Primaries http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/NH/index.html 2004 Primaries CNN Kerry won huge margins of support amongst almost all constituencies, with his only weak point amongst Republicans, who made up 4% of the voting block and was Lieberman's strongest point. Dean repeatedly came distant second or third for almost all categories of voters. Edwards defeated Clark amongst male voters as well as voters under 65, but only by a very tiny margin. Lieberman finished in a distant third in almost all categories except for Republicans, in which he nearly defeated John Kerry. Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Archived copy dcpoliticalreport.com 15 January 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW 21 November 2010 usurped +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportLean D FlipCook Political ReportTossupResearch 2000TossupZogby InternationalLikely D FlipWashington PostTossupWashington DispatchLikely D FlipWashington TimesTossupThe New York TimesTossupCNNLikely D FlipNewsweekTossupAssociated PressTossupRasmussen ReportsTossup Polling Pre-election polling was back and forth, with no clear indication who would end up winning the state. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 47%, with the undecided voters, making up just 3%, deciding the election.http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=33 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20060602100914/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=33 2006-06-02 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Fundraising Bush raised $598,474.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Kerry raised $766,720.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President Advertising and visits Bush visited the state six times, while Kerry visited the state four times.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/NH/ CNN CNN.com Specials Each campaign spent between $100,000 and $300,000 each week.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN CNN.com Specials Analysis New Hampshire, historically considered to be a more conservative state compared to the rest of New England, had by the early 2000s become a swing state in presidential elections, having voted for Democrat Bill Clinton twice in the 1990s but narrowly choosing Republican George W. Bush in 2000. However the state began heavily trending Democratic after 2000. Bush's approval ratings were consistently below 50% in 2004.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/new_hampshire_kerry_49_bush_47 Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election. 2009-06-06 https://web.archive.org/web/20080720003244/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/new_hampshire_kerry_49_bush_47 2008-07-20 dead Also, polling in the state consistently showed Kerry leading, and with between 47% and 50% of the vote. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nh_polls.html dead https://web.archive.org/web/20040706144004/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nh_polls.html 2004-07-06 RealClear Politics - Polls On election day, Kerry won with just over 50% of the vote, with a small margin of victory, as expected from the polls. Major factors include Bush's lower approval ratings and just 1% who voted for third-party candidates, unlike 2000 when over 4% of the people voted for an independent. Kerry won 6 of the 10 counties. Most of the counties were won and lost by small margins. Kerry's key to victory was winning Cheshire County with over 59%. Bush's best performance was in Belknap County, which he won with over 55% and carrying every single town. Bush won New Hampshire's 1st congressional district, and Kerry won New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district. This was also the first presidential election since 1968 when Coos County would back the losing candidate (thus making Bush the first Republican since 1968 to win the White House without carrying this county), and only the second time since 1892 when that would occur overall. This would later be repeated when Donald Trump won the county over Joe Biden in 2020 despite losing the presidential election that year. Bush became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying Sullivan County. Kerry was the first Democrat to win a majority in the state since 1964, as both of Bill Clinton's wins came as pluralities due to the large third party vote cast for Ross Perot. Results 2004 United States presidential election in New HampshirePartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Democratic John Kerry 340,511 50.24% 4 Republican George W. Bush (inc.) 331,237 48.87% 0 Independent Ralph Nader 4,479 0.66% 0 Write Ins 978 0.14% 0 Libertarian (Write-in) Michael Badnarik (Write-in) 372 0.05% 0 Constitution (Write-in) Michael Peroutka (Write-in) 161 0.02% 0 Totals 677,738 100.00% 4 Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 69.1% By county County John KerryDemocratic George W. BushRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Belknap 14,080 43.59% 17,920 55.48% 298 0.92% -3,840 -11.89% 32,298 Carroll 13,319 47.19% 14,614 51.78% 289 1.02% -1,295 -4.59% 28,222 Cheshire 24,438 59.10% 16,463 39.82% 446 1.08% 7,975 19.28% 41,347 Coos 8,585 50.72% 8,143 48.11% 197 1.16% 442 2.61% 16,925 Grafton 26,180 55.74% 20,277 43.17% 514 1.09% 5,903 12.57% 46,971 Hillsborough 94,121 48.16% 99,724 51.03% 1,582 0.81% -5,603 -2.87% 195,247 Merrimack 39,975 52.15% 36,060 47.05% 612 0.80% 3,915 5.10% 76,647 Rockingham 75,437 47.50% 82,069 51.68% 1,310 0.82% -6,632 -4.18% 158,816 Strafford 32,942 55.57% 25,825 43.56% 514 0.87% 7,117 12.01% 59,281 Sullivan 11,434 52.44% 10,142 46.51% 228 1.04% 1,292 5.93% 21,804Totals340,51150.24%331,23748.87%5,9900.89%9,2741.37%677,738 right 240px Swing by county Legend #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% 240px Trend by county Legend #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% 300px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold #0671b0 Flip Republican #f48882 Hold Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Coös (largest municipality: Berlin) Sullivan (largest municipality: Claremont) By congressional district Bush and Kerry each won a congressional district. Kerry won a district held by a Republican.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project District Bush Kerry RepresentativeNew Hampshire 1 1st 51% 48%Jeb BradleyNew Hampshire 2 2nd 47% 52%Charles Bass Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors Technically the voters of NH cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NH is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:http://www.sos.nh.gov/electors.htm 2004 electors 2009-10-10 https://web.archive.org/web/20090424181837/http://www.sos.nh.gov/electors.htm 2009-04-24 dead Jeanne Shaheen Peter Burling Judy Reardon James Ryan See also Presidency of George W. Bush United States presidential elections in New Hampshire References New Hampshire 2004 presidential