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2004 United States presidential election in Montana
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2004 United States presidential election
2004 United States presidential election in Montana Montana presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in Montana 2000 2008 United States presidential election in Montana 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 3 266,063 59.07% John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 0 173,710 38.56% 350px 350px County results
Bush
#e27f90 50–60%
#cc2f4a 60–70%
#d40000 70–80%
#aa0000 80–90%
#800000 90–100%
Kerry
#86b6f2 50–60% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) 70.6% (of registered voters) 64.2% (of voting age population)
The 2004 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Montana was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 20.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or considered as a safe red state.
Primaries
2004 Montana Democratic presidential primary
Campaign
Predictions
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Archived copy dcpoliticalreport.com 6 June 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW 21 November 2010 usurped
+SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportSolid RCook Political ReportSolid RResearch 2000Solid RZogby InternationalLikely RWashington PostLikely RWashington DispatchLikely RWashington TimesSolid RThe New York TimesSolid RCNNLikely RNewsweekSolid RAssociated PressSolid RRasmussen ReportsLikely R
Polling
Only a few pre-election polls were taken here. Bush won each one of them with a double-digit margin and with at least 54% of the vote. The final three polling averages showed him leading 55% to 35%.https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=30 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Uselectionatlas.org 17 February 2022
Fundraising
Bush raised $385,635.https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President Campaignmoney.com 17 February 2022 Kerry raised $145,679.https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President Campaignmoney.com 17 February 2022
Advertising and visits
Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html Specials Cnn.com 2022-02-16http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ Specials Cnn.com 2022-02-16
Analysis
Bush's key to victory was winning the highly populated Yellowstone County with 60% along with the majority of other counties. Kerry only won six counties in the state, including swinging Missoula County and his best performance in the Democratic stronghold of Deer Lodge County.
Results
2004 United States presidential election in Montanahttps://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=30&year=2004 2004 Presidential General Election Results - Montana Uselectionatlas.org 17 February 2022PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 266,063 59.07% 3 Democratic John Kerry 173,710 38.56% 0 Independent Ralph Nader 6,168 1.37% 0 Constitution Michael Peroutka 1,764 0.39% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,733 0.38% 0 Green David Cobb 996 0.22% 0 Write Ins. - 11 0.00% 0 Totals 450,445 100.00% 6 Voter turnout (voting age population) 64.2%
By county
CountyGeorge W. BushRepublicanJohn KerryDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Beaverhead3,06772.30%1,10326.00%721.70%1,96446.30%4,242Big Horn2,02847.04%2,21551.38%681.58%-187-4.34%4,311Blaine1,42451.45%1,30046.97%441.59%1244.48%2,768Broadwater1,77875.47%53322.62%451.90%1,24552.85%2,356Carbon3,34262.81%1,84734.71%1322.48%1,49528.10%5,321Carter62387.87%7610.72%101.41%54777.15%709Cascade19,02856.87%13,70140.95%7302.18%5,32715.92%33,459Chouteau1,91365.49%94632.39%622.12%96733.10%2,921Custer3,29765.31%1,63032.29%1212.40%1,66733.02%5,048Daniels76468.28%32629.13%292.59%43839.15%1,119Dawson2,88464.32%1,49433.32%1062.36%1,39031.00%4,484Deer Lodge1,72537.97%2,70059.43%1182.60%-975-21.46%4,543Fallon1,17879.01%28919.38%241.61%88959.63%1,491Fergus4,42572.22%1,58225.82%1201.96%2,84346.40%6,127Flathead26,01967.27%11,58729.96%1,0722.77%14,43237.31%38,678Gallatin22,39256.20%16,40541.18%1,0452.62%5,98715.02%39,842Garfield59090.08%527.94%131.98%53882.14%655Glacier1,82840.07%2,64157.89%932.04%-813-17.82%4,562Golden Valley39675.86%11922.80%71.34%27753.06%522Granite1,14471.28%40425.17%573.55%74046.11%1,605Hill3,50552.65%2,99745.02%1552.33%5087.63%6,657Jefferson3,84465.51%1,88132.06%1432.44%1,96333.45%5,868Judith Basin94473.41%32225.04%201.56%62248.37%1,286Lake7,24557.61%4,96039.44%3712.95%2,28518.17%12,576Lewis and Clark16,49455.27%12,71742.61%6322.12%3,77712.66%29,843Liberty73471.06%28127.20%181.74%45343.86%1,033Lincoln5,88969.70%2,32027.46%2402.84%3,56942.24%8,449Madison2,86872.92%98324.99%822.08%1,88547.93%3,933McCone79169.57%32028.14%262.29%47141.43%1,137Meagher69871.74%24725.39%282.88%45146.35%973Mineral1,24267.61%54229.50%532.89%70038.11%1,837Missoula23,98945.73%26,98351.44%1,4822.83%-2,994-5.71%52,454Musselshell1,66374.01%53823.94%462.05%1,12550.07%2,247Park4,77158.06%3,19938.93%2483.02%1,57219.13%8,218Petroleum22878.08%5518.84%93.08%17359.24%292Phillips1,67777.28%45621.01%371.71%1,22156.27%2,170Pondera1,85364.79%95633.43%511.78%89731.36%2,860Powder River85683.19%15414.97%191.85%70268.22%1,029Powell1,99370.42%76126.89%762.69%1,23243.53%2,830Prairie54674.18%18124.59%91.22%36549.59%736Ravalli13,27966.84%6,14430.93%4442.23%7,13535.91%19,867Richland3,11072.19%1,12026.00%781.81%1,99046.19%4,308Roosevelt1,76243.74%2,19554.49%711.76%-433-10.75%4,028Rosebud1,98255.29%1,52042.40%832.32%46212.89%3,585Sanders3,46167.16%1,50229.15%1903.69%1,95938.01%5,153Sheridan1,15956.87%84641.51%331.62%31315.36%2,038Silver Bow6,38139.67%9,30757.86%3962.46%-2,926-18.19%16,084Stillwater3,09073.34%1,02524.33%982.33%2,06549.01%4,213Sweet Grass1,50976.10%44522.44%291.46%1,06453.66%1,983Teton2,23266.45%1,04731.17%802.38%1,18535.28%3,359Toole1,58368.50%69029.86%381.64%89338.64%2,311Treasure34872.20%12125.10%132.70%22747.10%482Valley2,47661.62%1,43135.61%1112.76%1,04526.01%4,018Wheatland70672.11%25025.54%232.35%45646.57%979Wibaux40772.68%14425.71%91.61%26346.97%560Yellowstone40,90361.71%24,12036.39%1,2631.90%16,78325.32%66,286Totals266,06359.07%173,71038.56%10,6722.37%92,35320.51%450,445
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Missoula (largest city: Missoula)
right 300px Swing by county Legend #00bdec Democratic — +12.5-15% #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% 300px Trend by county Legend #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #d40000 Republican — +>15% 300px County flips Legend
Democratic
#92c5de Hold
#0671b0 Flip
Republican
#f48882 Hold
By congressional district
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is called the at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.
District Bush Kerry RepresentativeAt-large 59.1% 38.6%Denny Rehberg
Electors
List of 2004 United States presidential electors
Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated three electors because it has one congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of three electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all three electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged for Bush/Cheney.http://www.metnet.state.mt.us/newslinks/81C0F478-3B9ACA00-01B681B4 Not Found 2009-10-10 https://web.archive.org/web/20060425193747/http://www.metnet.state.mt.us/newslinks/81C0F478-3B9ACA00-01B681B4 2006-04-25 dead
Jack Galt
Thelma Baker
John Brenden
See also
United States presidential elections in Montana
Presidency of George W. Bush
References
Montana
2004
Presidential