2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

none March 2026 September 2023 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania Pennsylvania presidential no 1998 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania 1998 2010 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania 2010 November 2, 2004 150x150px Arlen Specter, official Senate photo portrait.jpg Arlen Specter Republican Party (United States) 2,925,080 52.62% Joe Hoeffel portrait.jpg Joe Hoeffel Democratic Party (United States) 2,334,126 41.99% 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania results map by county.svg 260px County resultsSpecter: #ffb2b2 40–50% #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70% #d72f30 70–80%Hoeffel: #a5b0ff 40–50% #3933e5 70–80% U.S. Senator Arlen Specter Republican Party (United States) Arlen Specter Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Republican Senator Arlen Specter won re-election to a fifth term. As of , this is the last time a Republican statewide candidate won Montgomery and Delaware Counties and won more than 25% of the vote in Philadelphia. Specter later lost renomination in 2010 as a Democrat, having joined the party in April 2009. Specter’s party switch marked the first time since 1947 that Democrats held both of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seats. Democratic primary Campaign Democrats had difficulty recruiting top tier candidates against the popular Specter. Among the Democrats to decline to run for the nomination were Treasurer (and former Republican) Barbara Hafer, Public Utilities Commissioner John Hanger, real estate mogul Howard Hanna, State Representative (and also former Republican) John Lawless, and State Senator (and future Congresswoman) Allyson Schwartz. Democratic Short List '04 PoliticsPA The Publius Group 2003 https://web.archive.org/web/20030802092142/http://www.politicspa.com/features/shortlist04.htm http://www.politicspa.com/features/shortlist04.htm August 2, 2003 Congressman Hoeffel ended up running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Software businessman Charlie Crystle was considered a strong possible candidate, but he dropped out before the election.Neri Al Albert J. Neri August 2003 District historically Republican The Insider http://www.insiderpa.com/archive/insider8-2003b.htm dead 2009-10-25 https://web.archive.org/web/20071013105059/http://www.insiderpa.com/archive/insider8-2003b.htm 2007-10-13 Results Democratic Party primary for Pennsylvania Senate Election Democratic Party (United States) Joe Hoeffel 595,816 100.00% Republican primary thumbnail|left|150px|Pat Toomey Campaign Specter faced a primary challenge from Representative Pat Toomey. Despite the state Republican Party's strong history of embracing a moderate philosophy, the influence of conservatism among rank-and-file members had been steadily growing for decades; because of his liberal social views, Specter was often considered to be a "Republican in Name Only" by the right.https://books.google.com/books?id=1J_9q-lIWRkC&q=klink&pg=PA112 Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004 9780761832799 Kennedy John J. 2006 Although Specter had a huge fundraising advantage, Toomey was aided by $2 million of advertising from the Club for Growth, a conservative political action committee that focuses on fiscal issues and targets moderate Republican incumbents. Toomey criticized Specter as a spendthrift on economic policy and as out of touch with his own party on social issues. Although Toomey had difficulty with name recognition early in the campaign, he built huge momentum over the final weeks preceding the primary, and Specter appeared to have transitioned from having a comfortable lead to being behind his challenger.https://books.google.com/books?id=1J_9q-lIWRkC&q=klink&pg=PA112 Pennsylvania Elections: Statewide Contests from 1950-2004 9780761832799 Kennedy John J. 2006 Specter received a huge boost from the vocal support of President George W. Bush; most of the state's Republican establishment also closed ranks behind Specter. This included Pennsylvania's other U.S. Senator, Rick Santorum, who was noted for his social conservative views. Many Republicans at the state and national level feared that if Toomey beat Specter, he wouldn't be able to defend the seat against his Democratic opponent.Sen. Specter ekes out narrow win in Pa. primary - Politics - nbcnews.com Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Marginof error ArlenSpecter PatToomey UndecidedSurveyUSASurveyUSAApril 23–25, 2004478 (LV)± 4.6%48%48%4%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityApril 20–24, 2004617 (LV)± 4%48%42%10%the polling company, inc. (R)the polling company, inc. (R)April 22–23, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%46%39%15%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeApril 13–20, 2004401 (RV)± 4.8%50%26%24%126 (LV)± 8.7%46%40%14%SurveyUSASurveyUSAApril 17–19, 2004479 (LV)± 4.6%50%44%6%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityApril 12–18, 2004431 (LV)± 4.7%49%44%7%SurveyUSASurveyUSAApril 3–5, 2004490 (LV)± 4.5%46%40%14%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityMar 30–Apr 5, 2004615 (LV)± 4%52%37%11%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeMarch 25–29, 2004258 (RV)± 6%50%28%22%193 (LV)± 7%46%33%21%SurveyUSASurveyUSAMarch 13–15, 2004399 (LV)± 5%47%38%15%the polling company, inc. (R)the polling company, inc. (R)March 9–10, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%47%37%16%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeFebruary 19–22, 2004176 (RV)± 7.3%55%17%28%the polling company, inc. (R)January 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%51%28%21%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg Collegep. 2Nov 23–Dec 8, 2003193 (V)± 7%52%25%23%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeOct 27–Nov 16, 2003257 (RV)± 6%49%18%33% Results thumb|Results by county #E27F7F Specter #E27F7F 50–60% #D75D5D 60–70% #FF9A50 Toomey #FF9A50 50–60% #ff7f2a 60–70%The results were much closer than analysts expected, with Specter narrowly winning by a margin of 1.64%. Specter's percentage of the vote was spread evenly across the state, and he received the most votes in the suburban counties of Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware. thumb|Many analysts attributed Specter's narrow win to support from the Republican establishment, specifically President George W. Bush and Senator Rick Santorum. Meanwhile, Toomey dominated in his home region of the Lehigh Valley, which he represented as a congressman from Allentown, winning Lehigh and Northampton by wide margins. Toomey also did well in Western Pennsylvania and Metro Pittsburgh, where suburban voters (who turned out the most in primaries) tended to be more socially conservative. Republican Party primary for Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2004 Republican Party (United States) Arlen Specter (incumbent) 530,839 50.82% Republican Party (United States) Pat Toomey 513,693 49.18% 1,044,532 100.00% Source: PA Department of State - 2004 General Primary General election Candidates Major Joe Hoeffel (D), U.S. Representative Arlen Specter (R), incumbent U.S. Senator Minor Jim Clymer (C) Betsy Summers (L) Campaign For Democrats, hope of winning the election centered on Toomey's defeat of Specter. However, after the challenge from the right failed, enthusiasm from the party establishment waned and Hoeffel had difficulty matching the name recognition and fundraising power of his opponent http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id%3DSPA2004102201 Pennsylvania Senate 2004, Crystal Ball, U.Va. April 30, 2009 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20080213062620/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=SPA2004102201 February 13, 2008 Despite contempt from conservatives, Specter enjoyed high levels of support from independent voters and, as in previous elections, a surprisingly large crossover from Democratic voters. Even in the areas in which Toomey performed best in the Republican primary (mainly the state's conservative, rural center), Specter performed well. Except for his large margin of victory in almost uniformly Democratic Philadelphia, Hoeffel was crushed at the polls; his only other wins came by close margins in three metro Pittsburgh counties; although President Bush proved to be unpopular in the state, voters were not willing to abandon Specter over party affiliation.http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2004/09/27/News/Hoeffel.Trails.Specter.By.Large.Margin.In.Senate.Race-2150770.shtml Hoeffel trails Specter by large margin in Senate race - News April 30, 2009 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20090504141851/http://media.www.dailypennsylvanian.com/media/storage/paper882/news/2004/09/27/News/Hoeffel.Trails.Specter.By.Large.Margin.In.Senate.Race-2150770.shtml May 4, 2009 Incidentally, Toomey was elected to the seat in 2010, after Specter switched to the Democratic Party in 2009 and subsequently lost renomination to U.S. Congressman and former Navy Admiral Joe Sestak.April 2021 Predictions Source Ranking As of Sabato's Crystal BallThe Final Predictions https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2004110101/ Sabato's Crystal Ball May 2, 2021 Safe R November 1, 2004 Polling Poll source Date(s)administered SamplesizeKey:A – all adultsRV – registered votersLV – likely votersV – unclear Marginof error ArlenSpecter (R) JoelHoeffel (D) JimClymer (C) BetsySummers (L) UndecidedSurveyUSASurveyUSAOct 31–Nov 1, 2004650 (LV)± 3.9%53%35%8%4%Strategic Vision (R)Strategic Vision (R)October 29–31, 2004801 (LV)± 3%55%33%4%8%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityOctober 27–31, 20041,022 (LV)± 3.1%53%33%7%7%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 27–30, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%54%31%15%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 26–29, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%57%28%15%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 25–28, 2004603 (LV)± 4.1%53%30%17%Strategic Vision (R)October 25–27, 2004801 (LV)± 3%55%35%4%6%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 24–27, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%55%29%16%Temple UniversityTemple UniversityOctober 22–27, 20041,488 (RV)± 2.6%51%29%5%3%12%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 23–26, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%54%33%13%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityOctober 22–26, 20041,340 (RV)± 2.7%52%29%6%13%54%30%16%909 (LV)± 3.3%55%33%7%5%60%34%6%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 23–25, 2004797 (LV)± 3.5%51%38%6%5%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 22–25, 2004602 (LV)± 4.1%53%35%12%Zogby InternationalZogby InternationalOctober 21–24, 2004603 (LV)± 4.1%48%38%14%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeOctober 19–23, 2003622 (RV)± 3.9%52%29%4%2%13%376 (LV)± 5.1%52%31%17%Mason-DixonMason-DixonOctober 19–21, 2004800 (LV)± 3.5%50%32%7%11%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityOctober 16–20, 20041,185 (RV)± 2.9%49%33%5%13%52%34%14%841 (LV)± 3.4%51%36%6%7%55%37%8%Strategic Vision (R)October 17–19, 2004801 (LV)± 3%54%35%4%7%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 15–17, 2004608 (LV)± 4.1%48%41%6%5%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityOctober 9–11, 20041,980 (RV)± 2.2%51%33%16%1,343 (LV)± 2.7%55%36%9%Strategic Vision (R)October 9–11, 2004801 (LV)± 3%52%33%3%12%SurveyUSASurveyUSAOctober 3–5, 2004767 (LV)± 3.6%54%35%11%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeSep 30–Oct 4, 2003594 (RV)± 4%46%32%6%16%Strategic Vision (R)September 27–29, 2004801 (LV)± 3%53%33%3%11%Mason-DixonMason-DixonSeptember 27–28, 2004625 (RV)± 4%53%31%16%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversitySeptember 22–26, 20041,125 (RV)± 2.9%52%33%15%726 (LV)± 3.6%56%37%7%Strategic Vision (R)September 13–15, 2004801 (LV)± 3%52%33%4%11%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeSeptember 8–15, 2003491 (RV)± 4.4%51%25%5%19%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversitySeptember 11–14, 20041,205 (RV)± 2.8%51%33%16%792 (LV)± 3.5%52%37%11%SurveyUSASurveyUSASeptember 7–9, 2004684 (LV)± 3.8%51%33%16%Strategic Vision (R)August 26–28, 2004801 (LV)± 3%51%31%4%14%Pew ResearchPew ResearchAugust 13–21, 20041,006 (RV)± 3%54%36%10%861 (LV)± 4%56%36%8%Strategic Vision (R)August 16–18, 2004801 (LV)± 3%49%32%3%16%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityAugust 11–16, 20041,430 (RV)± 2.6%48%33%19%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall CollegeAugust 2–15, 2003660 (RV)± 3.8%53%26%2%19%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJul 31–Aug 2, 2004740 (LV)± 3.7%49%34%17%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityJuly 6–11, 20041,577 (RV)± 2.5%51%36%13%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityJune 21–22, 2004839 (RV)± 3.4%50%35%15%Neighborhood Research (C)Neighborhood Research (C)June 7–16, 2004631 (LV)± 3.9%52%23%2%23%SurveyUSASurveyUSAJune 7–9, 2004679 (LV)± 3.8%58%33%9%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityMay 24–25, 2004701 (RV)± 3.7%49%37%14%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityMarch 9–15, 20041,022 (RV)± 3.1%45%29%26%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityFebruary 10–16, 20041,356 (RV)± 2.7%50%31%19%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityDecember 11–14, 20031,092 (RV)± 3%50%32%18%Franklin & Marshall CollegeOct 27–Nov 16, 2003593 (RV)± 4%47%25%28%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityOctober 9–13, 20031,116 (RV)± 2.9%50%33%17%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac UniversityJul 30–Aug 4, 20031,037 (RV)± 3%53%29%18%DSCC (D)DSCC (D)June 10–12, 2003500 (LV)± 4.4%53%26%21% Endorsements Joe Hoeffel (D) Newspapers Philadelphia Daily NewsThe Daily views: Hoeffel for Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/philadelphia-daily-news-the-daily-views/203825669/ August 14, 2026 Philadelphia Daily News October 4, 2004 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 15 Newspapers.com Times LeaderOur opinion: We endorse Joe Hoeffel to serve in U.S. Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-times-leader-our-opinion-we-endorse/203823971/ August 14, 2026 Times Leader October 24, 2004 Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 2B Newspapers.com Arlen Specter (R) Newspapers The Citizens' VoiceOur Voice: Seniority, independence make Specter best choice https://www.newspapers.com/article/citizens-voice-our-voice-seniority-in/203822864/ August 14, 2026 The Citizens' Voice October 26, 2004 Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 28 Newspapers.com The Evening SunEditorial: Specter, Platts earn support https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-evening-sun-editorial-specter-plat/203822484/ August 14, 2026 The Evening Sun October 30, 2004 Hanover, Pennsylvania A-6 Newspapers.com The Indiana GazetteGazette editorial: Specter goes to bat for us https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-indiana-gazette-gazette-editorial-s/203826268/ August 14, 2026 The Indiana Gazette October 29, 2004 Indiana, Pennsylvania 6 Newspapers.com Intelligencer JournalIn our view: Re-elect Specter https://www.newspapers.com/article/intelligencer-journal-in-our-view-re-el/203822126/ August 14, 2026 Intelligencer Journal October 19, 2004 Lancaster, Pennsylvania A8 Newspapers.com Lancaster New EraEditorials: Record fifth term for Sen. Specter https://www.newspapers.com/article/lancaster-new-era-editorials-record-fif/203821918/ August 14, 2026 Lancaster New Era October 17, 2004 Lancaster, Pennsylvania A10 Newspapers.com Lebanon Daily NewsSpecter for Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-daily-news-specter-for-senate/203825455/ August 14, 2026 Lebanon Daily News October 28, 2004 Lebanon, Pennsylvania 6A Newspapers.com The Morning CallOur view: For seniority and proven ability, keep Sen. Specer in U.S. Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-morning-call-our-view-for-seniority/203806753/ August 14, 2026 The Morning Call October 17, 2004 Allentown, Pennsylvania D2 Newspapers.com The Patriot-NewsSpecter: Best interests of his home state behind Republican senator's votes https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-patriot-news-specter-best-interests/203823737/ August 14, 2026 Sunday Patriot-News October 17, 2004 Harrisburg, Pennsylvania F4 Newspapers.com New Pittsburgh CourierEditorial: General Election endorsements https://www.newspapers.com/article/new-pittsburgh-courier-editorial-genera/203806613/ August 14, 2026 New Pittsburgh Courier October 31, 2004 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania A6 Newspapers.com The Philadelphia InquirerU.S. Senate: Reelect Specter https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-philadelphia-inquirer-us-senate-r/203806223/ August 14, 2026 The Philadelphia Inquirer October 17, 2004 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania C6 Newspapers.com The Scranton TimesOur opinion: Arlen Specter For U.S. Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-times-tribune-our-opinion-arlen-spe/203823404/ August 14, 2026 The Scranton Times October 25, 2004 Scranton, Pennsylvania 6 Newspapers.com and The TribuneEditorials: Arlen Specter for U.S. Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-tribune-editorials-arlen-specter-fo/203823156/ August 14, 2026 The Tribune October 25, 2004 Scranton, Pennsylvania A4 Newspapers.com The SentinelSentinel Editorials: Specter choice for Senate https://www.newspapers.com/article/the-sentinel-sentinel-editorials-specte/203824252/ August 14, 2026 The Sentinel October 24, 2004 Carlisle, Pennsylvania B4 Newspapers.com York Daily RecordOur Views: For election https://www.newspapers.com/article/york-daily-record-our-views-for-electio/203825056/ August 14, 2026 York Sunday News October 31, 2004 York, Pennsylvania B2 Newspapers.com Results General election results Republican Party (United States) Arlen Specter (incumbent) 2,925,080 52.62% Democratic Party (United States) Joe Hoeffel 2,334,126 41.99% Constitution Party (United States) Jim Clymer 220,056 3.96% Libertarian Party (United States) Betsy Summers 79,263 1.43% 5,769,590 100.00% Republican Party (United States) Source: Election Statistics - Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Alleghany (largest city: Pittsburgh) Beaver (largest city: Beaver) Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown) Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Somerset (largest city: Somerset) See also 2004 United States Senate elections Notes lower-alpha References External links Debates Pennsylvania Senate Republican Primary Election Debate on C-SPAN, April 3, 2004 Pennsylvania Senate General Election Debate on C-SPAN, October 2, 2004 Pennsylvania Senate General Election Debate on C-SPAN, October 9, 2004 Official campaign websites (archived) Democrats Joe Hoeffel Republicans Arlen Specter Pat Toomey Category:2004 Pennsylvania elections Pennsylvania 2004