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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election
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2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election Kentucky presidential no 2003 Kentucky gubernatorial election 2003 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election 2011 November 6, 2007 37.9% ( 2.3%) File:Steve Beshear by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg 150x150px Steve Beshear Democratic Party (United States) 619,552 58.71% Daniel Mongiardo File: Ernie Fletcher, official portrait (107th Congress) (cropped).jpg Ernie Fletcher Republican Party (United States) 435,773 41.29% Robbie Rudolph 300px County results 300px Congressional district results 1 Beshear: #7996e2 50–60% #6674de 60–70% #584cde 70–80% #3933e5 80–90%Fletcher: #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70% #d72f30 70–80% Governor Ernie Fletcher Republican Party (United States) Steve Beshear Democratic Party (United States)
The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.LEX18 - Lexington, KY - News, Weather, Sports - Fletcher, Beshear To Face Off In Nov https://web.archive.org/web/20080521185610/http://www.lex18.com/Global/story.asp?S=6554860&nav=EQlp May 21, 2008
Background
Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the attorney general of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation.) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%,https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1ce793b4-b38b-4fe7-9b01-97934b8979d8 SurveyUSA News Poll #12133 Surveyusa.com 2012-08-18 putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.
Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).
On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).
Republican primary
Candidates
Ernie Fletcher – incumbent governor of Kentucky, 2003–2007; former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 1999–2003; former state representative, 1995–1997
Running mate: Robbie Rudolph, state secretary of Executive Cabinet, 2006–2007; state secretary of finance, 2003–2006
Billy Harper – businessman
Running mate: Dick Wilson
Anne Northup – former U.S. representative for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 1997–2007; former state representative, 1987–1997
Running mate: Jeff Hoover, state representative 1997–2019
Polling
Source Date ErnieFletcher BillyHarper AnneNorthupSurvey USA May 18–20, 200744% 17% 34%Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollMay 10–15, 200741% 10% 26%Survey USAMay 12–14, 200744% 14% 34%Survey USA April 28–30, 200746% 14% 34%Survey USA March 31 – April 2, 200740% 16% 31%Survey USA March 3–5, 200733% 13% 31% Public Opinion StrategiesNorthup: Survey shows her tied with Fletcher Stephenie Steitzer The Kentucky Post Covington, Kentucky 2007-02-02 A2 http://docs.newsbank.com/openurl?ctx_ver=z39.88-2004&rft_id=info:sid/iw.newsbank.com:NewsBank:KYPB&rft_val_format=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&rft_dat=1171D7291E888F10&svc_dat=InfoWeb:aggregated5&req_dat=0D0CB579A3BDA420 January 28–29, 2007 39% 10% 39%
Results
thumb|300px|Primary results by county:
#d75d5d Fletcher #ffb2b2 40–50% #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70% #d72f30 70–80% #c21b18 80–90%
#ee8e50 Northup #ffb580 40–50% #ff9a50 50–60% #ee8e50 60–70% #d69850 70–80%
#37c837 Harper #5fd35f 50–60%
Republican primary results
Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) Robbie Rudolph Republican Party (United States) 101,328 50.08%
Anne Northup Jeff Hoover Republican Party (United States) 73,919 36.53%
Billy Harper Dick Wilson Republican Party (United States) 27,092 13.39%
202,339 100.00%
Democratic primary
Candidates
Steve Beshear – former lt. governor of Kentucky, 1983–1987; former attorney general of Kentucky, 1979–1983; former state representative, 1974–1979
Running mate: State Senator Daniel Mongiardo, 2001–2007
Gatewood Galbraith – attorney, perennial candidate
Running mate: Mark Wireman
Steve Henry – former lt. governor of Kentucky, 1995–2003
Running mate: Fayette County Property Valuation Administrator Renee True, 1992–2009
Otis Hensley – private contractor from Wallins Creek, Kentucky, who received 3% of the vote in the Democratic primary in 2003
Running mate: Richard Robbins
Bruce Lunsford – Louisville businessman; sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2003; withdrew four days before the primary, endorsing Jody Richards
Running mate: Greg Stumbo, attorney general of Kentucky 2004–2007; former state representative, 1985–2003
Jody Richards – state representative, 1975–2019 (speaker of the House, 1996–2007); received 47% of the vote in the Democratic primary for governor of Kentucky in 2003
Running mate: John Y. Brown III, Kentucky secretary of state 1995–2003
Polling
Source Date SteveBeshear GatewoodGalbraith SteveHenry OtisHensley BruceLunsford JodyRichards JonathanMillerSurvey USASurvey USA May 18–20, 200732% 7% 17% 1% 23% 12% N/APenn, Schoen and BerlandPenn, Schoen and Berland May 16–17, 200726% N/A 13% N/A 22% 12% N/AGarinHartYang ResearchGarinHartYang Research https://web.archive.org/web/20070927203638/http://theruraldemocrat.typepad.com/the_rural_democrat/2007/05/beshear_and_mon.html 2007-09-27 May 14–15, 200735% N/A 13% N/A 23% 12% N/ASurvey USASurvey USA May 12–14, 200732% 5% 18% 1% 23% 12% N/ACourier-Journal Bluegrass PollCourier-Journal Bluegrass Poll May 10–14, 200727% 4% 13% 1% 21% 7% N/ASurvey USASurvey USA April 28–30, 2007 23% 6% 18% 1%29% 9% 7%Mellman GroupMellman Group April 19–22, 2007 15% N/A24% N/A 16% 9% 20%Survey USASurvey USA March 31 – April 2, 2007 15% 8%20% 1%20% 12% 8%Survey USASurvey USA March 3–5, 2007 15% 6%26% 2% 7% 13% 8%GarinHartYang ResearchGarinHartYang Research February 20–22, 200721% N/A21% N/A 8% 16% 8%
Results
thumb|300px|Primary results by county:
#8da9e2 Beshear #3358a2 Beshear—80–90% #4170cd Beshear—70–80% #678cd7 Beshear—60–70% #8da9e2 Beshear—50–60% #b4c7ec Beshear—40–50% #dee8fb Beshear—30–40% #eef3fd Beshear—20–30%
#73bc84 Lunsford #3fa457 Lunsford—60–70% #73bc84 Lunsford—50–60% #a3d5af Lunsford—40–50% #d6efdc Lunsford—30–40%
#c88fe4 Henry #c88fe4 Henry—50–60% #dcb7ef Henry—40–50% #f2dffc Henry—30–40%
#c0a32f Richards #a88600 Richards—60–70% #c0a32f Richards—50–60% #d7c477 Richards—40–50% #f0e6be Richards—30–40% #f8f2de Richards—20–30%
#a9a9a9 Galbraith #e7e7e7 Galbraith—30–40%
Democratic primary resultshttp://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/06813C49-6909-445E-ACF4-AD0CCAE0E98F/134895/STATE.txt Kentucky State Board of Elections Welcome to the State Board of Elections Elect.ky.gov 2012-08-18 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20110824175837/http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/06813C49-6909-445E-ACF4-AD0CCAE0E98F/134895/STATE.txt August 24, 2011
Steve Beshear Daniel Mongiardo Democratic Party (United States) 142,838 41.02%
Bruce Lunsford Greg Stumbo Democratic Party (United States) 74,578 21.42%
Steve Henry Renee True Democratic Party (United States) 60,893 17.49%
Jody Richards John Y. Brown III Democratic Party (United States) 45,433 13.05%
Gatewood Galbraith Mark Wireman Democratic Party (United States) 20,704 5.95%
Otis Hensley Richard Robbins Democratic Party (United States) 3,792 1.09%
348,238 100.00%
General election
Polling
Source Date SteveBeshear (D) ErnieFletcher (R)Survey USASurvey USANovember 2–4, 200759% 39%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen ReportsNovember 1, 200754% 39%Survey USASurvey USAOctober 27–29, 200760% 36%Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollCourier-Journal Bluegrass PollOctober 26–29, 200756% 33%Research 2000Research 2000October 22–24, 200755% 40%Survey USASurvey USAOctober 19–21, 200758% 38%Survey USASurvey USAOctober 8–9, 200756% 40%Insider AdvantageInsider AdvantageSeptember 24–25, 200745% 35%Courier-Journal Bluegrass PollCourier-Journal Bluegrass PollSeptember 13–18, 200755% 35%Preston-OsbornePreston-OsborneSeptember 13–17, 200751% 36%Research 2000Research 2000September 10–13, 200756% 39%Survey USA Survey USASeptember 8–10, 200758% 39%Survey USA Survey USAAugust 4–6, 200758% 37%Preston-Osborne Preston-OsborneJuly 25 – August 2, 200749% 31%Survey USA Survey USAJuly 14–16, 200759% 36%Insider Advantage Insider AdvantageJuly 8–9, 200741% 38%Rasmussen Reports Rasmussen ReportsMay 24–25, 200751% 35%Survey USA Survey USAMay 23–24, 200762% 34%
Predictions
SourceRankingAs of Sabato's Crystal Ballhttps://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2007110101/ 22007 Gubernatorial Contests and Virginia General Assembly Update crystalball.centerforpolitics.org Likely D flipNovember 1, 2007
Results
2007 Kentucky gubernatorial electionVoter Turnout Report for the 11/06/07 General Election https://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Statistics/turnout/2006-2010/07gen.pdf Kentucky State Board of Elections
Democratic Party (United States)
Steven L. Beshear Daniel Mongiardo
619,552
58.71
+13.74
Republican Party (United States)
Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) Robbie Rudolph
435,773
41.29
-13.74
1,055,325
100.0
N/A
1,076,442
37.89
-2.33
2,840,898
Democratic Party (United States)
Republican Party (United States)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
25em Anderson (largest city: Lawrenceburg)
Barren (largest city: Glasgow)
Bell (largest city: Middlesboro)
Bourbon (largest city: Paris)
Boyle (largest city: Danville)
Bracken (largest city: Augusta)
Breckinridge (largest city: Hardinsburg)
Bullitt (largest city: Mount Washington)
Caldwell (largest city: Princeton)
Calloway (largest city: Murray)
Campbell (largest city: Fort Thomas)
Carlisle (largest city: Bardwell)
Christian (largest city: Hopkinsville)
Clark (largest city: Winchester)
Crittenden (largest city: Marion)
Daviess (largest city: Owensboro)
Edmonson (largest city: Brownsville)
Fayette (largest city: Lexington)
Fleming (largest city: Flemingsburg)
Gallatin (largest city: Warsaw)
Grant (largest city: Williamstown)
Graves (largest city: Mayfield)
Hardin (largest city: Elizabethtown)
Harrison (largest city: Cynthiana)
Hart (largest city: Horse Cave)
Henry (largest city: Eminence)
Hickman (largest city: Clinton)
Hopkins (largest city: Madisonville)
Johnson (largest city: Paintsville)
Kenton (largest city: Covington)
LaRue (largest city: Hodgenville)
Leslie (largest city: Hyden)
Logan (largest city: Russellville)
Madison (largest city: Richmond)
Marshall (largest city: Benton)
Martin (largest city: Inez)
Mason (largest city: Maysville)
McCracken (largest city: Paducah)
Meade (largest city: Brandenburg)
Mercer (largest city: Harrodsburg)
Metcalfe (largest city: Edmonton)
Montgomery (largest city: Mount Sterling)
Nelson (largest city: Bardstown)
Nicholas (largest city: Carlisle)
Ohio (largest city: Hartford)
Owen (largest city: Owenton)
Owsley (largest city: Booneville)
Pendleton (largest city: Falmouth)
Powell (largest city: Stanton)
Robertson (largest municipality: Mount Olivet)
Scott (largest city: Georgetown)
Shelby (largest city: Shelbyville)
Simpson (largest city: Franklin)
Spencer (largest city: Taylorsville)
Todd (largest city: Elkton)
Trigg (largest city: Cadiz)
Warren (largest city: Bowling Green)
Washington (largest city: Springfield)
See also
2007 United States elections
2007 United States gubernatorial elections
Governors of Kentucky
References
External links
BluegrassReport.org, Kentucky politics blog run during Gov. Fletcher's administration
Candidates
Steve Beshear for Governor (Archive)
Ernie Fletcher for Governor (Archive)
Information
Kentucky Secretary of State Filing Report
Louisville Courier-Journal recap of Democratic primary
Louisville Courier-Journal recap of Republican primary
Unofficial Election results (live returns)
Governor
2007
Category:2007 United States gubernatorial elections
Category:November 2007 in the United States