2004 Indian general election analysis

Indian lower house election right|300px The 2004 general elections defied the predictions made by pre-poll predictions and exit polls and allowed the newly formed UPA alliance led by Sonia Gandhi, to come to power. This election also saw the rise of marginalized parties like the left, to join forces with the opposition, which led to a major realignment in social and political power. Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a large wealthy middle class, and thus it achieved its overwhelming victory. The reverses in the pre-poll predictions are ascribed to various reasons depending on the point of view. People were more concerned about issues of their immediate environment such as water scarcity, drought, etc., than national issues. The anti-incumbency factor was at work for the BJP allies. State by State analysis Andhra Pradesh Indian general election in Andhra Pradesh, 2004 + Voting Pattern in Andhra Pradesh Social Background INC+ TDP+Gender Male47%42% Female54%41%Social Class Poor49%43% Very Poor50%41%OBCs Peasant OBCs45%48% Lower OBCs47%45%Rural Classes Farmers41%49% Agricultural workers51%41% Young voters57%38% Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000220300.htm Arithmetic and anti-incumbency knocked Naidu out The Hindu May 20, 2004 2009-07-20 Chennai, India Karnataka + Voting pattern in Karnataka Category INC BJP+ JD(S) Others Upper caste23%65%7%5% Vokkaliga38%18%43%1% Lingayat30%60%5%5% OBCs35%36%23%6% Dalit45%32%8%16% Adivasi29%35%35%2% Muslims55%19%21%5% Others39%37%15%9%+ Considerable dissatisfaction with the government Category Deteriorated Same as before Improved No opinion Corruption49%26%11%13% Drinking water44%26%24%5% Uninterrupted power supply39%27%28%4% Indian general election in Karnataka, 2004 Source: NES Election 2004 Analysishttp://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000400400.htm Chennai, India The Hindu A clear case of ticket-splitting in Karnataka 2004-05-20 Kerala + Voting pattern in Kerala Category LDF UDF BJP Hindu upper castes40%37%18% Nairs41%29%27% Ezhavas59%22%18% OBCs49%36%13% Dalits71%15%10% Muslims39%58%2% Christians28%64%2%+ Considerable dissatisfaction with the Anthony government Category Deteriorated Same as before Improved No opinion Drinking water49%32%16%3% PDS38%42%14%6% Public health27%43%23%7% Education23%31%38%7% Electricity31%44%19%6% Employment50%32%13%5% Agriculture59%22%13%6% Industries40%34%15%11% Indian general election in Kerala, 2004 Source: NES Election 2004 Analysishttp://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000230300.htm Chennai, India The Hindu Kerala bucks the national trend, once again 2004-05-20 Tamil Nadu + Voting Pattern in Tamil Nadu Category DMK+ AIADMK+ OthersGender Male54%32%14% Female49%39%12%Locality Rural50%35%15% Urban57%36%7%Social class Very poor44%37%17% Poor55%31%14% Lower middle57%37%6% Middle51%39%10%Caste Upper caste33%54%13% Thevar50%47%3% Vanniyars61%33%6% Chettiyars47%30%23% Gounders57%33%10% Nadars57%36%7% Lower OBCs55%33%12% Chekkliyars, Pallars, etc.39%38%23% other Dalits40%37%23% Muslims78%11%11%Tell me how good each of the leaders are for Tamil Nadu...+ Karunanidhi rated better than Jayalalithaa Rating M. Karunanidhi J. Jayalalithaa Bad13%31% Average31%33% Good29%17% Very good22%14% Do not know5%5% Indian general election in Tamil Nadu, 2004 Source: NES Election 2004 AnalysisThe Hindu : State by State : Alliance effect, swing factor propelled DPA victory Thsks http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000180300.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110922235211/http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000180300.htm 2011-09-22 live 2009-07-20 Chennai, India 2004-05-20 References External links Verdict 2004 Category:2004 Indian general election