411 REFERENCE · Wikipedia
2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
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2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses Iowa Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg presidential no 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses 2012 2016 02 01 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses 2020 File:Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg 150x150px Ted Cruz DAA520 Texas 8 51,666 27.6% File:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Donald Trump 283681 New York 45,429 24.3% 7 File:Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio C60E3B Florida 43,228 23.1% 7 File:Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg Ben Carson 99CCFF Virginia 17,394 9.3% 3 File:Rand Paul (17083068012) (cropped).jpg Rand Paul FED105 Kentucky 8,481 4.5% 1 File:Jeb Bush by Gage Skidmore 2 (cropped).jpg Jeb Bush 939 Florida 5,238 2.8% 1 File:Carly Fiorina NFRW 2015 lighting corrected.jpg Carly Fiorina 630 Virginia 3,485 1.9% 1 File:John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg John Kasich 29AB87 Ohio 3,474 1.9% 1 File:Mike Huckabee by Gage Skidmore 6 (cropped).jpg Mike Huckabee ff7f2a Arkansas 3,345 1.8% 1 File:2016 IA GOP Presidential primary.svgclass=nopageimage 250px Results by county Ted Cruz#fff0b3 20–30%#ffe680 30-40% #ffdc4d 40–50% Donald Trump#c5cbed 20–30%#9ea8e1 30–40%#7786d5 40–50%Marco Rubio#fab8c8 20–30%#f788a3 30–40%
#666666 Tie 30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention NH
The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.
Ted Cruz was able to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucus by winning over Evangelical caucus-goers;Katie Glueck https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/ted-cruz-iowa-caucuses-218591 How Cruz beat Trump Politico February 3, 2020 June 25, 2016 Cruz won 51,666 caucus votes or 27.6%, giving him a net gain of one delegate over Trump. Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and held small events.Editorial The Register's Editorial: Cruz won Iowa the old-fashioned way: He earned it https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/2016/02/02/editorial-cruz-won-iowa-old-fashioned-way-he-earned/79679066/ 2022-06-18 The Des Moines Register en-US Cruz outperformed his polling average, which predicted a narrow Trump victory in the caucus.
Following poor performances in the caucuses, Rand Paul,Goldmacher Shane Isenstadt Alex Strauss Daniel February 3, 2016 Rand Paul drops out of White House race https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/rand-paul-dropping-out-of-white-house-race-218675 June 18, 2016 Politico Mike HuckabeeBradner Eric Preston Mark February 1, 2016 Mike Huckabee drops out of 2016 presidential race http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/politics/mike-huckabee-drops-out-of-2016-presidential-race/index.html June 18, 2016 CNN and Rick SantorumKing John John King (journalist) Kopan Tal Tal Kopan Diamond Jeremy Jeremy Diamond (journalist) February 3, 2016 Rick Santorum drops presidential bid, endorses Marco Rubio http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/03/politics/rick-santorum-dropping-presidential-bid/index.html June 18, 2016 CNN suspended their campaigns. Both Huckabee and Santorum had previously won the caucus in 2008 and 2012 respectively.
Procedure
According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race.Article VIII, Republican Party of Iowa bylaws https://web.archive.org/web/20151213152319/https://www.iowagop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/RPI-Bylaws-Updated-2015.pdf 2015-12-13 , amended June 27, 2015.
The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:
20em
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Mike Huckabee
Caucus operations
The caucuses began at 7:00 PM local time across 1,681 precincts statewide. After the selection of caucus chairs and secretaries, campaign representatives made speeches supporting their candidates before voters cast their preferences on paper ballots. The 2016 Republican caucuses set a new turnout record with 186,932 participants, significantly higher than the 121,503 who participated in 2012.Our Campaigns - IA US President - R Caucus Race - Feb 01, 2016 https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=765980 2024-10-11 www.ourcampaigns.com
Campaign
The Iowa caucuses required extensive ground organization and retail politics from the candidates. Ted Cruz's campaign pursued a traditional grassroots approach, completing the "Full Grassley" by visiting all 99 counties in Iowa while building relationships with evangelical and conservative leaders.https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/2016/02/02/editorial-cruz-won-iowa-old-fashioned-way-he-earned/79679066/ Editorial: Cruz won Iowa the old-fashioned way: He earned it The Des Moines Register en-US His campaign utilized sophisticated data analytics and microtargeting to identify and turn out likely supporters.
Donald Trump opted for a less conventional strategy, focusing on large rallies that drew thousands of attendees across the state and earned media coverage. However, questions persisted about whether his unorthodox approach could successfully convert rally attendance into caucus participation from first-time voters.Katie Glueck https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/ted-cruz-iowa-caucuses-218591 How Cruz beat Trump Politico February 3, 2020
Marco Rubio positioned himself as an electable conservative alternative, particularly appealing to suburban voters and party regulars. His campaign emphasized his youth and vision for a "New American Century," gaining momentum in the final weeks before the caucuses.http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/endorsement/2016/01/23/des-moines-register-iowa-caucus-endorsement-marco-rubio/79240264/ Endorsement: Marco Rubio can chart new direction for GOP The Des Moines Register January 23, 2016
Forums and debates
November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, Iowa
The Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz. Presidential candidates display faith, fire http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/11/21/presidential-candidates-display-faith-fire-at-presidential-family-forum/76059272/ Des Moines Register November 21, 2015 December 2, 2015 Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police. Republican Candidates Talk Religion, Security at Iowa Forum https://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-republican-candidates-talk-religion-security-at-iowa-forum/ CBS News November 21, 2015 December 2, 2015
Forum 3
January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa
The seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace.Stephen Battaglio Fox News Channel's Megyn Kelly will be at GOP debate in January http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-kelly-trump-fox-debate-20150813-story.html Los Angeles Times September 27, 2015 August 13, 2015 This was the last debate before actual voting began with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016.Ronald Brownstein These States Could Pick the GOP Nominee, Each for Different Reasons http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/newsdesk/states-that-could-pick-gop-nominee?mref=scroll National Journal December 14, 2015 December 16, 2015http://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-to-host-last-gop-debate-before-iowa-caucuses Fox News to host last GOP debate before Iowa caucuses Fox News December 21, 2015 Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate.Kilani Koelig Andrew Rafferty http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-says-skipping-debate-turned-out-great-n506966 Trump Says Skipping Debate 'Turned Out Great' January 29, 2016 NBC News
Debate 8
Endorsements
Cruz secured several influential endorsements that proved crucial to his victory, including Congressman Steve King, who represented Iowa's 4th congressional district, and Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a prominent evangelical organization.https://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/steve-king-endorses-ted-cruz-2016-election-215925 Iowa hardliner Steve King endorses Ted Cruz Politico Nov 16, 2015https://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bob-vander-plaats-endorses-ted-cruz-216644 Cruz wins key Iowa evangelical endorsement Politico Dec 12, 2015
Trump notably received limited support from Iowa Republican officials, though he led most pre-caucus polls. Meanwhile, Rubio gained important momentum when he received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and other newspapers in the closing weeks of the campaign.http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/endorsement/2016/01/23/des-moines-register-iowa-caucus-endorsement-marco-rubio/79240264/ Endorsement: Marco Rubio can chart new direction for GOP The Des Moines Register January 23, 2016
Jeb Bush Former executive branch officials
Mary Kramer, United States Ambassador to Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean (2004–2006)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
U.S. Representatives
Greg Ganske, IA-04 (1995–2003)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
State Senators
Charles Schneider, state senator from the District 22 (2013–present)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
State Representatives
Ron Jorgensen, state representative from the District 6 (2011–present)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
Greg Forristall, state representative from the District 22 (2007–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Zach Nunn, state representative from the District 30 (2015–present)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
Renee Schulte, Former state representative from the District 37 (2008–2013)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
Robert Bacon, state representative from the District 48 (2013–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Ken Rizer, state representative from the District 68 (2015–present)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/16/jeb-bush-iowa-endorsements/28844005 Jeb Bush announces Iowa endorsements Noble Jason Des Moines Register June 16, 2015 en 2015-06-16
Dave Heaton, state representative from the District 91 (1995–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Linda Miller, state representative from the District 94 (2007–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Ben Carson State Representatives
Rob Taylor, state representative from the District 44 (2013–present)https://www.p2016.org/carson/carsonorg.html Carson America Carson Ben Carson 2016 May 4, 2015 en 2015-05-04
Chris Christie State Representatives
Jake Highfill, state representative from the District 39 (2013–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Chip Baltimore, state representative from the District 47 (2011–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Dave Deyoe, state representative from the District 51 (2007–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Kraig Paulsen, state representative from the District 67 (2003–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Gary Carlson, state representative from the District 91 (2015–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Ted Cruz U.S. Representatives
Steve King, IA-04 (2003–Present)https://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/steve-king-endorses-ted-cruz-2016-election-215925 Iowa hardliner Steve King endorses Ted Cruz GLUECK KATIE Politico Nov 16, 2015 en 2015-11-16
State Senators
Randy Feenstra, state senator from the 2nd district (2009–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Bill Anderson, state senator from the 3rd district (2011–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Dennis Guth, state senator from the 4th district (2013-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Jason Schultz, state senator from the 9th district (2015–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Jake Chapman, state senator from the 10th district (2013–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Jerry Behn, state senator from the 24th district (1997–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
State Representatives
Terry Baxter, state representative from the District 8 (2015–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Steven Holt, state representative from the District 12 (2015–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Ralph Watts, state representative from the District 19 (2003–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Greg Heartsill, state representative from the District 28 (2013–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Sandy Salmon, state representative from the District 63 (2013–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Larry Sheets, state representative from the District 80 (2013–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Notable individuals
Bob Vander Plaats, political activist and president and CEO of The Family Leaderhttps://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/bob-vander-plaats-endorses-ted-cruz-216644 Cruz wins key Iowa evangelical endorsement GLUECK KATIE Politico Dec 12, 2015 en 2015-12-10
Carly Fiorina State Senators
David Johnson, state senator from the 1st district (2003-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
State Representatives
Mike May, state representative from the District 6 (2005–2011)https://www.theiowastatesman.com/3397/fiorina-announces-endorsement Fiorina announces endorsement Statesman Iowa The Iowa Statesman June 5, 2015 en 2015-06-05
Mike Sexton, state representative from the District 7 (2015–present)https://www.theiowastatesman.com/3397/fiorina-announces-endorsement Fiorina announces endorsement Statesman Iowa The Iowa Statesman June 5, 2015 en 2015-06-05
Clel Baudler, state representative from the District 20 (1999–present)https://www.p2016.org/fiorina/fiorinasuperpacorg.html#ia CARLY for America Committee Fiorina Carly Fiorina 2016 Feb 25, 2015 en 2015-02-25
Josh Byrnes, state representative from the District 51 (2011–present)https://www.p2016.org/fiorina/fiorinasuperpacorg.html#ia CARLY for America Committee Fiorina Carly Fiorina 2016 Feb 25, 2015 en 2015-02-25
Steven Olson, state representative from the District 83 (2003–present)https://www.p2016.org/fiorina/fiorinasuperpacorg.html#ia CARLY for America Committee Fiorina Carly Fiorina 2016 Feb 25, 2015 en 2015-02-25
Ross Paustian, state representative from the District 92 (2015–present)https://www.p2016.org/fiorina/fiorinasuperpacorg.html#ia CARLY for America Committee Fiorina Carly Fiorina 2016 Feb 25, 2015 en 2015-02-25
John Kasich State Representatives
Mary Ann Hanusa, state representative from the District 16 (2011–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
David Sieck, state representative from the District 86 (2015–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Mike Huckabee State Representatives
Tedd Gassman, state representative from the District 7 (2013–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Marco Rubio State Senators
Rick Bertrand, state senator from the 7th district (2011–present)https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/06/05/bertrand-joins-marco-rubios-campaign-team/28544977/ Bertrand joins Marco Rubio's campaign team Mackenzie Ryan Des Moines June 5, 2015 en 2015-06-05
Tom Shipley, state senator from the 11th district(2015-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Jack Whitver, state senator from the 19th district (2011–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Dan Zumbach, state senator from the 48th district (2013–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
State Representatives
Megan Jones, state representative from the District 6 (2013–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
John Wills, state representative from the District 10 (2015–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Brian Best, state representative from the District 11 (2015–Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Bobby Kaufmann, state representative from the District 82 (2013–present)https://www.wqad.com/article/news/politics/marco-rubio-gets-endorsement-at-campaign-stop-in-wilton-iowa/526-0cfd4155-e7ac-4d95-ba43-0d9d551e7350 Marco Rubio gets endorsement at campaign stop in Wilton, Iowa Lewis Brittany WQAD8 July 9, 2015 en 2015-07-09
Newspapers
The Des Moines Registerhttp://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/endorsement/2016/01/23/des-moines-register-iowa-caucus-endorsement-marco-rubio/79240264/ Endorsement: Marco Rubio can chart new direction for GOP The Des Moines Register January 23, 2016
Sioux City Journalhttp://siouxcityjournal.com/news/opinion/editorial/article_2b45b476-211d-5930-a787-42b9db8ee92d.html OUR OPINION: Rubio, Clinton represent best choices in Iowa caucuses Sioux City Journal January 23, 2016
Rick Santorum State Representatives
Dean Fisher, state representative from the District 53 (2013-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Walt Rogers, state representative from the District 60 (2011-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Donald Trump State Senators
Brad Zaun, state senator from the 20th district (2005-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Withdrawn candidates
Lindsey Graham (Withdrawn) State Senators
Tim Kapucian, state senator from the 38th district (2009-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Bobby Jindal (Withdrawn) State Representatives
Matt Windschitl, state representative from the District 17 (2007–present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Rick Perry (Withdrawn) State Representatives
Dawn Pettengill, state representative from the District 75 (2005-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Scott Walker (Withdrawn) State Senators
Mark Costello, state senator from the 8th district (2015-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Jason Schultz, state senator from the 9th district (2015-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Julian Garrett, state senator from the 11th district (2013-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Amy Sinclair, state senator from the 14th district (2013-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
State Representatives
John Landon, state representative from the District 37 (2013-Present)https://www.p2016.org/chrniowa/iaendorse16r.html Iowa Endorsements—Republicans en
Polling
Aggregate polls
+Source of poll
aggregationDates
administeredDates
updatedMarco RubioRepublicanDonald TrumpRepublicanTed CruzRepublicanMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsuntil February 1, 2016February 1, 201616.9%28.6%23.9%20.0Trump +4.7FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil February 1, 2016February 1, 201618.1%25.6%24.3%23.0Trump +1.3
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherCaucus resultsCaucus resultsFebruary 1, 2016 Ted Cruz27.64% Donald Trump24.30% Marco Rubio23.12% Ben Carson 9.30%, Rand Paul 4.54%, Jeb Bush 2.80%, Carly Fiorina 1.86%, John Kasich 1.86%, Mike Huckabee 1.79%, Chris Christie 1.76%, Rick Santorum 0.95%, Jim Gilmore 0.01%, Other 0.06%Emerson Collegehttp://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_0f8be4ffea6949a298ba44d6eba0a6da.pdf TRUMP BY A NOSE OVER CRUZ; RUBIO GAINS MOMENTUM AND CLINTON MAINTAINS LEAD OVER SANDERS Emerson College Polling Society February 1, 2016
Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 298 January 29–31, 2016Donald Trump27.3%Ted Cruz25.6% Marco Rubio21.6% Mike Huckabee 4.7%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, John Kasich 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.4%, Ben Carson 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Carly Fiorina 1.7%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, Undecided 1%Quinnipiac Universityhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia02012016_Ifsmb28.pdf FIRST-TIMERS PUT TRUMP AHEAD IN IOWA GOP CAUCUS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; SANDERS NEEDS FIRST-TIMERS TO TIE CLINTON IN DEM CAUCUS Quinnipiac University February 1, 2016 February 4, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160204082640/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia02012016_Ifsmb28.pdf dead
Margin of error: ± 3.3%
Sample size: 890January 25–31, 2016Donald Trump31% Ted Cruz24% Marco Rubio17% Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not decided 3%Opinion Savvyhttp://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Iowa-1.30.15.pdf Iowa Republican Caucus Poll Opinion Savvy February 1, 2016
Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 887 January 29–30, 2016Donald Trump20.1%Ted Cruz19.4%Marco Rubio18.6% Ben Carson 9.0%, Rand Paul 8.6%, Jeb Bush 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.4%, John Kasich 4.0%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.1%, Undecided 2.2%Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-01-30/des-moines-register-bloomberg-politics-iowa-poll-republicans Trump Overtakes Cruz in Final Iowa Poll Before Caucuses Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register January 31, 2016
Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 602 January 26–29, 2016Donald Trump28% Ted Cruz23% Marco Rubio15% Ben Carson 10%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Jeb Bush 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gimore 0%, Undecided 2%, Uncommitted 3%Public Policy Pollinghttp://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_1282016.pdf Trump Leads Iowa; Some Rays of Hope for Cruz, Rubio Public Policy Polling January 29, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160203184405/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_1282016.pdf February 3, 2016 dead
Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 780 January 26–27, 2016Donald Trump31% Ted Cruz23% Marco Rubio14% Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gimore 1%, Undecided 2%NBC/WSJ/Maristhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/128-trump-leads-in-ia-nh-and-sc-clinton-and-sanders-competitive-in-ia-sanders-up-in-nh-clinton-leads-in-sc/ Trump Leads in IA, NH, and SC... Clinton and Sanders Competitive in IA, Sanders up in NH, Clinton Leads in SC Marist Poll January 28, 2016
Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415 January 24–26, 2016Donald Trump32% Ted Cruz25% Marco Rubio18% Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%Monmouth Universityhttp://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/249a3e52-aa2b-43c7-a1f5-96e07f94480a.pdf ARG Iowa GOP Polls Monmouth University 28 January 2016 1 February 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160201122313/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/249a3e52-aa2b-43c7-a1f5-96e07f94480a.pdf dead
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500 January 23–26, 2016Donald Trump30% Ted Cruz23% Marco Rubio16% Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%ARGhttp://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/iarep.html ARG Iowa GOP Polls ARG 26 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400 January 21–24, 2016Donald Trump33% Ted Cruz26% Marco Rubio11% Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%Quinnipiac Universityhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia01262016_Ihrb73p.pdf TRUMP, CRUZ GO DOWN TO THE WIRE IN IOWA GOP CAUCUS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; RUBIO A DISTANT THIRD AS OTHERS ALL BUT DISAPPEAR Quinnipiac University 26 January 2016 3 February 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160203012622/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia01262016_Ihrb73p.pdf dead
Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 651January 18–24, 2016Donald Trump31%Ted Cruz29% Marco Rubio13% Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Not decided 2%ISU/WHO-HDhttp://whotv.com/2016/01/25/clinton-cruz-lead-among-iowa-caucusgoers-in-who-hd-iowa-state-university-poll/ Clinton, Cruz Lead Among Iowa Caucusgoers in WHO-HD, Iowa State University Poll Who TV 26 January 2016 26 January 2016
Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 283 January 5–22, 2016Ted Cruz25.8% Donald Trump18.9% Ben Carson13.4% Marco Rubio 12.3%, Rand Paul 6.9%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, Mike Huckabee 3.7%, Carly Fiorina 1.1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Chris Christie <1%, John Kasich <1%Fox Newshttp://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/22/fox-news-poll-iowa-presidential-primary/ Iowa Presidential Primary Fox News 25 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 378 January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump34% Ted Cruz23% Marco Rubio12% Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 4%, John Kasich 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Don't Know 2%CBS/YouGovhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/w3i98ql027/IA_ForRelease_20160124.pdf CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa YouGov 25 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 492 January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump39%Ted Cruz34% Marco Rubio13% Ben Carson 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Jeb Bush 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%Emerson Collegehttp://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_14638d9d5114402c98729e04b468a73d.pdf EYES ON IOWA:EMERSON COLLEGE POLL REVEALS TRUMP AND CLINTON SURGE 10 DAYS BEFORE THE CAUCUS. CRUZ AND SANDERS ARE FALTERING AT THE FINISH Emerson College 22 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 271 January 18–20, 2016Donald Trump33.1% Ted Cruz22.8% Marco Rubio14.2% Ben Carson 9.1%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Jeb Bush 5.1%, John Kasich 2.9%, Rand Paul 2.7%, Carly Fiorina 2.1%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, Undecided 1%CNN/ORChttp://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders hold solid leads in Iowa, CNN/ORC poll finds CNN 20 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 266 January 15–20, 2016Donald Trump37% Ted Cruz26% Marco Rubio14% Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%Monmouth College/KBUR/Douglas Fulmer & Associateshttp://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/IowaGOPCaucusPollJan2016.pdf Iowa Republican Caucus Poll Douglas Fulmer & Associates 22 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 687 January 18–19, 2016Ted Cruz27%Donald Trump25% Ben Carson11% Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Undecided 4%Loras Collegehttp://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Trump-and-Cruz-Deadlocked,-with-Rubio-a-Distant-Th.aspx Trump and Cruz Deadlocked, with Rubio a Distant Third, Loras College Poll Finds Loras College 22 January 2016 January 23, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160123213751/http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2016/Trump-and-Cruz-Deadlocked,-with-Rubio-a-Distant-Th.aspx dead
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500 January 13–18, 2016Donald Trump26%Ted Cruz25% Marco Rubio13% Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, John Kasich 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecide 7%Public Policy Pollinghttp://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf Trump/Cruz Close in Iowa; Birther Issue Could Hurt Cruz; Sanders Gaining on Clinton Public Policy Polling 13 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 530 January 8–10, 2016Donald Trump28%Ted Cruz26% Marco Rubio13% Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 2%DM Register/Bloomberghttp://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/13/iowa-poll-cruz-holds-3-point-lead-trump-attacks/78684344/ Iowa Poll: Cruz holds 3-point lead as Trump attacks DM Register/Bloomberg 13 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500 January 7–10, 2016Ted Cruz25%Donald Trump22% Marco Rubio12% Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%ARGhttp://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/iadem.html ARG Iowa GOP Polls ARG 12 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600January 6–10, 2016Donald Trump29%Ted Cruz25% Marco Rubio10% Ben Carson 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%Quinnipiac Universityhttp://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2313 Iowa GOP Polls Quinnipiac University 12 January 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160112123647/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2313 12 January 2016 dead
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 602January 5–10, 2016Donald Trump31%Ted Cruz29% Marco Rubio15% Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Not decided 5%Fox Newshttp://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/01/08/fox-news-poll-iowa-polls-trump-vs-cruz-obama-ratings/ Iowa GOP Polls Fox News 9 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 504January 4–7, 2016Ted Cruz27%Donald Trump23% Marco Rubio15% Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 2%NBC/WSJ/Maristhttp://maristpoll.marist.edu/110-cruz-and-trump-vie-in-ia-trump-nh-favorite-clinton-and-sanders-competitive/ Cruz and Trump Vie in IA, Trump NH Favorite... Clinton and Sanders Competitive Marist Poll 11 January 2016
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 456January 2–7, 2016Ted Cruz28%Donald Trump24% Marco Rubio13% Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
Polls in 2015 background:#FFB6B6; text-align:center;
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherGravis MarketingGravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 440 December 18–21, 2015Donald Trump31%Ted Cruz31% Marco Rubio9% Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, George Pataki 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Unsure 5%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 1252 December 14–17, 2015Ted Cruz40% Donald Trump31% Marco Rubio12% Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No preference 0%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 522 December 10–13, 2015Donald Trump28%Ted Cruz25% Marco Rubio14% Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 1%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University
Margin of error: ± 3.3%
Sample size: 874 December 4–13, 2015Donald Trump28%Ted Cruz27% Marco Rubio14% Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, DK 3%Loras CollegeLoras College
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 499 December 7–10, 2015Ted Cruz29.7% Donald Trump23.4% Ben Carson10.8% Marco Rubio 10.6%, Jeb Bush 6.2%, Carly Fiorina 3.4%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, John Kasich 1.0%, Rick Santorum 1.0%, Chris Christie 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.0%, Undecided 9.0%Fox NewsFox News
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 450 December 7–10, 2015Ted Cruz28%Donald Trump26% Marco Rubio13% Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Other 1%, DK 3%DMR/BloombergDMR/Bloomberg
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400 December 7–10, 2015Ted Cruz31% Donald Trump21% Ben Carson13% Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Undecided 4%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University https://web.archive.org/web/20151210195616/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/de240398-df23-47b6-8470-91977d38b749.pdf 2015-12-10
Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 425 December 3–6, 2015Ted Cruz24% Donald Trump19% Marco Rubio17% Ben Carson 13%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham <1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 4%CNN/ORCCNN/ORC
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 552 November 28-December 6, 2015Donald Trump33% Ted Cruz20% Ben Carson16% Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No one 1%, Someone else 1%, No opinion 1%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University https://web.archive.org/web/20151125081423/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia11242015_Ic344mgh.pdf 2015-11-25
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600 November 16–22, 2015Donald Trump25%Ted Cruz23% Ben Carson18% Marco Rubio 13%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, DK/NA 2%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: ? November 15–19, 2015Donald Trump30% Ted Cruz21% Ben Carson19% Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%Iowa State University/WHO-HDIowa State University/WHO-HD
Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 518 November 2–15, 2015Ben Carson27% Marco Rubio17% Donald Trump15% Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Chris Christie 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%CNN/ORCCNN/ ORC
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 548 October 29 – November 4, 2015Donald Trump25%Ben Carson23% Marco Rubio13% Ted Cruz 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No opinion 3%Gravis Marketing/One America News NetworkGravis Marketing/One America News Network
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 356 October 30 – November 2, 2015Donald Trump29.4% Ben Carson22.4% Marco Rubio18.0% Ted Cruz 8.5%, Jeb Bush 6.0%, Carly Fiorina 5.2%, John Kasich 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rand Paul 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.5%, Mike Huckabee 1.1%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 638 October 30 – November 1, 2015Donald Trump22%Ben Carson21% Ted Cruz14% Marco Rubio 10%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 1%KBUR/Monmouth UniversityKBUR/Monmouth University
Margin of error: ± 3.37%
Sample size: 874 October 29–31, 2015Ben Carson27.5%Donald Trump20.4% Ted Cruz 15.1% Marco Rubio 10.1%, Jeb Bush 9.0%, Carly Fiorina 4.1%, Lindsey Graham 0.2%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, John Kasich 1.9%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Rick Santorum 0.7%, Jim Gilmore 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3.8%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University https://web.archive.org/web/20151027214105/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/58019993-0901-4917-9afa-39e6fd4b748f.pdf 2015-10-27
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400 October 22–25, 2015Ben Carson32% Donald Trump18% Ted Cruz10% Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 5%Loras CollegeLoras College
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500 October 19–22, 2015Ben Carson30.6% Donald Trump18.6% Marco Rubio10.0% Jeb Bush 6.8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Bobby Jindal 4.6%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Chris Christie 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.8%, John Kasich 1.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.2%, Rick Santorum 0.8%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 12.8%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 6.5%
Sample size: ? October 15–22, 2015Donald Trump27%Ben Carson27% Ted Cruz12% Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 3%DMR/BloombergDMR/Bloomberg
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401 October 16–21, 2015Ben Carson28% Donald Trump19% Ted Cruz10% Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not sure 7%, Uncommitted 3%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University https://web.archive.org/web/20151023135352/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia10222015_igv72sh.pdf 2015-10-23
Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 574 October 14–20, 2015Ben Carson28% Donald Trump20% Marco Rubio13% Ted Cruz 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 3%NBC/WSJNBC/WSJ
Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431 October 2015Donald Trump24% Ben Carson19% Carly Fiorina8% Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki <1%, Jim Gilmore <1%, Undecided 7%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 454 October 2, 2015Donald Trump18.8% Ben Carson14.1% Ted Cruz10.6% Carly Fiorina 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Jeb Bush 6.9%, John Kasich 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, Lindsey Graham 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.7%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, George Pataki 0.3%, Unsure 17.9%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 488 September 18–20, 2015Donald Trump24% Ben Carson17% Carly Fiorina13% Ted Cruz 8%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 3%CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 5.7%
Sample size: 705 September 3–10, 2015Donald Trump29%Ben Carson25% Ted Cruz10% Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jeb Bush 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Rick Perry 0%, No preference 4%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University https://web.archive.org/web/20150912020219/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia09112015_itb72wt.pdf 2015-09-12
Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 1038 August 27 – September 8, 2015Donald Trump27% Ben Carson21% Ted Cruz9% Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Scott Walker 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 390 August 26 – September 2, 2015Donald Trump29% Ben Carson22% Jeb Bush6% Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8%Gravis Marketing/One AmericaGravis Marketing/One America
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 507 August 29–31, 2015Donald Trump31.7% Ben Carson15.8% Ted Cruz6.9% Marco Rubio 5.8%, Scott Walker 5.6%, Bobby Jindal 5.2%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Jeb Bush 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.6%, Chris Christie 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rand Paul 1.3%, Rick Perry 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0.1%, Undecided 10.9%Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University https://web.archive.org/web/20150902161414/http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/85775b52-ec99-4ad3-bbee-14826bdf86e5.pdf 2015-09-02
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 405 August 27–30, 2015Donald Trump23%Ben Carson23% Carly Fiorina10% Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Perry 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 5%Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/SelzerDes Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400 August 23–26, 2015Donald Trump23% Ben Carson18% Ted Cruz8% Scott Walker 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 10%CNN/ORCCNN/ORC
Margin of error: ± 2%
Sample size: 2,014 August 7–11, 2015Donald Trump22% Ben Carson14% Scott Walker9% Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else 0%, No one 2%, No opinion 4%NBC/MaristNBC/Marist June 2022 InternetArchiveBot yes
Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 342 July 14–21, 2015Scott Walker19%Donald Trump17% Jeb Bush12% Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University https://web.archive.org/web/20150701195325/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia07012015_Is38vbd.pdf 2015-07-01
Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 666 June 20–29, 2015Scott Walker18% Ben Carson10% Donald Trump10% Ted Cruz 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Marco Rubio 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, DK/NA 5%Morning Consulthttp://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150502_crosstabs_mc_IA_v1_AD.pdf Morning Consult June 18, 2022 June 18, 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20220618214013/https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150502_crosstabs_mc_IA_v1_AD.pdf dead
Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 265 May 31 – June 8, 2015Scott Walker18% Jeb Bush10% Mike Huckabee10% Rand Paul 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Donald Trump 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Don't know/No opinion/Refused 21%, Someone else 3%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 364 May 28–29, 2015Scott Walker17%Marco Rubio13%Ben Carson12% Jeb Bush 10%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Unsure 15%Des Moines RegisterDes Moines Register
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402May 25–29, 2015Scott Walker17% Ben Carson10% Rand Paul10% Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Donald Trump 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Uncommitted 4%, Not sure 7%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University
Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 667April 25 – May 4, 2015Scott Walker21% Rand Paul13% Marco Rubio13% Ted Cruz 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know/No answer 6%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462April 23–26, 2015Scott Walker23% Marco Rubio13% Jeb Bush12% Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 10%, Ted Cruz 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Undecided 8%Loras CollegeLoras College
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 509 April 21–23, 2015Scott Walker12.6%Marco Rubio10%Jeb Bush9.6% Mike Huckabee 8.6%, Ted Cruz 6.5%, Ben Carson 6.3%, Rand Paul 6.3%, Chris Christie 5.1%, Rick Santorum 3.5%, Donald Trump 3.1%, Rick Perry 2.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 22.8%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388 April 13, 2015Jeb Bush16%Scott Walker13%Marco Rubio12% Ben Carson 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 17%Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy
Margin of error: ± 4.16%
Sample size: 552 March 20, 2015Scott Walker29% Ben Carson14% Jeb Bush12% Mike Huckabee 11%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Donald Trump 3%, Other/Undecided 10%Quinnipiac UniversityQuinnipiac University
Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 623 February 16–23, 2015Scott Walker25% Rand Paul13% Ben Carson11% Mike Huckabee 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ted Cruz 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 0%, Unsure 9%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 343 February 12–13, 2015Scott Walker24% Jeb Bush10% Rand Paul10% Chris Christie 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Unsure 15%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 320 February 3–10, 2015Mike Huckabee17%Jeb Bush16%Scott Walker15% Chris Christie 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Ted Cruz 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Undecided 14%Selzer & Co.Selzer & Co.
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402 January 26–29, 2015Scott Walker15%Rand Paul14%Mitt Romney13% Mike Huckabee 10%, Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 2%, Not sure 5%Scott Walker16%Rand Paul15%Mike Huckabee13% Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Not sure 5%Loras CollegeLoras College
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 316 January 21–26, 2015Mitt Romney13.7%Mike Huckabee12.5%Ben Carson10.5% Jeb Bush 9.9%, Scott Walker 8.3%, Rand Paul 6.7%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Chris Christie 3.8%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 2.9%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0.3% Undecided 14.7%Mike Huckabee14.4%Jeb Bush13.1%Ben Carson12.8% Scott Walker 9.9%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Ted Cruz 5.4%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 3.2%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, John Kasich 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.6% Undecided 16%Gravis MarketingGravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 3%
Sample size: 404 January 5–7, 2015Mitt Romney21% Jeb Bush14% Scott Walker10% Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Paul Ryan 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Undecided 18%
Polls in 2014 background:#FFB6B6; text-align:center;
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherFox NewsFox News
Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 329 October 28–30, 2014Mike Huckabee13%Ben Carson12%Paul Ryan9% Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rob Portman 0%, Other 1%, None of the above 4%, Don't know 10%Reuters/IpsosReuters/Ipsos
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 602 October 23–29, 2014Mitt Romney17%Paul Ryan13% Chris Christie12% Jeb Bush 10%, Scott Walker 10%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Wouldn't vote 7%Selzer & Co.Selzer & Co.
Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 425 October 1–7, 2014Mitt Romney17% Ben Carson11% Rand Paul10% Mike Huckabee 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Jeb Bush 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Marco Rubio 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Rob Portman 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Not sure 9%CNN/ORCCNN/ORC
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 310 September 8–10, 2014Mike Huckabee21% Paul Ryan12% Rand Paul7% Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 3%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University https://web.archive.org/web/20140903064207/https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_27_2014_marginals.pdf September 3, 2014
Margin of error: ± 6.83%
Sample size: 206 August 23–26, 2014Mike Huckabee13.11%Chris Christie10.68%Rick Perry8.74% Jeb Bush 7.28%, Rand Paul 6.8%, Paul Ryan 6.31%, Rick Santorum 5.83%, Marco Rubio 5.34%, Ted Cruz 4.85%, Scott Walker 4.37%, Bobby Jindal 2.91%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 0.97%, John Kasich 0.97%, Other 4.37%, Undecided 16.99%, Refused 0.49%Mitt Romney35.29% Mike Huckabee8.82% Chris Christie6.47% Rick Santorum 5.88%, Ted Cruz 5.29%, Rand Paul 5.29%, Jeb Bush 4.71, Rick Perry 4.71%, Paul Ryan 4.12%, Scott Walker 3.53%, Marco Rubio 2.35%, Bobby Jindal 1.76%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.18%, John Kasich 0.59%, Undecided 10%NBC News/MaristNBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 558 July 7–13, 2014Jeb Bush12%Rand Paul12%Paul Ryan11% Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Scott Walker 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 20%Vox Populi PollingVox Populi Polling
Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 222 June 4–5, 2014Jeb Bush18%Mike Huckabee15%Paul Ryan13% Rand Paul 12%, Marco Rubio 11%, Rick Santorum 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Scott Walker 6%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 303 May 15–19, 2014Mike Huckabee20%Ted Cruz15% Jeb Bush12% Rand Paul 10%, Chris Christie 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Scott Walker 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Someone else/Not sure 13%The Daily Caller/Vox Populi PollingThe Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling poppolling.com http://www.poppolling.com/useruploads/files/iowa_april_2014_-_topline.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20150924075658/http://www.poppolling.com/useruploads/files/iowa_april_2014_-_topline.pdf September 24, 2015 usurped
Margin of error: ± 8.4%
Sample size: 168 April 22–24, 2014Mike Huckabee20%Paul Ryan19%Jeb Bush18% Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Joe Scarborough 4%Magellan StrategiesMagellan Strategies
Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 330 April 14–15, 2014Jeb Bush17%Mike Huckabee17%Chris Christie14% Rand Paul 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Scott Walker 8%, John Kasich 5%, Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 16%Loras CollegeLoras College
Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600 April 7–8, 2014Mike Huckabee14.7%Jeb Bush10.7% Rand Paul8.5% Paul Ryan 8.3%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Marco Rubio 4.7%, Rick Santorum 4.7%, Scott Walker 4.7%, Rick Perry 3%, John Kasich 0.7%, Other 0.7%, Undecided 23.8%Suffolk UniversitySuffolk University https://web.archive.org/web/20181109182755/https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/4_9_2014_marginals.pdf 2018-11-09
Margin of error: ± 8.7%
Sample size: 127 April 3–8, 2014Mike Huckabee11.02%Jeb Bush10.24%Rand Paul10.24% Ted Cruz 9.45%, Ben Carson 8.66%, Chris Christie 7.09%, Paul Ryan 6.3%, Sarah Palin 5.51%, Condoleezza Rice 5.51%, Marco Rubio 5.51%, Rick Santorum 5.51%, Scott Walker 5.51%, Bobby Jindal 3.15%, Rick Perry 3.15%, Undecided 3.15%WPA ResearchWPA Research
Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 402 March 30, 2014Mike Huckabee14%Rand Paul10% Scott Walker8% Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Paul Ryan 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 26%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.8%
Sample size: 283 February 20–23, 2014Mike Huckabee17%Rand Paul14%Jeb Bush13% Chris Christie 10%, Ted Cruz 10%, Paul Ryan 9%, Bobby Jindal 7%, Scott Walker 7%, Marco Rubio 3%, Other/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2013-2012 background:#FFB6B6; text-align:center;
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rdOtherCygnalCygnal
Margin of error: ± 2.37%
Sample size: 1,705 July 10–12, 2013Marco Rubio11.4%Rand Paul10.5%Paul Ryan9.3% Jeb Bush 8.7%, Chris Christie 7.7%, Rick Santorum 6.7%, Ted Cruz 6.1%, Scott Walker 2.1%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Undecided 36.3%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 250 July 5–7, 2013Rand Paul18%Chris Christie16%Paul Ryan15% Jeb Bush 14%, Marco Rubio 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Rick Santorum 6%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Susana Martinez 1%, Other/Undecided 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.4%
Sample size: 326 Feb. 1–3, 2013Mike Huckabee16%Marco Rubio16%Rand Paul15% Jeb Bush 14%, Chris Christie 12%, Paul Ryan 10%, Susana Martinez 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Someone Else/Undecided 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: 5.1%
Sample size: 363 July 12–15, 2012Rick Santorum17%Mike Huckabee17% Chris Christie16% Rand Paul 11%, Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Paul Ryan 6%, Sarah Palin 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Someone else/Not sure 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling
Margin of error: 5.3%
Sample size: 346 May 3–5, 2012Rick Santorum16%Mike Huckabee16% Chris Christie15% Jeb Bush 10%, Sarah Palin 10%, Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 7%, Paul Ryan 5% Someone else/Not sure 10%
Results
Results by county
+2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses (By County)Our Campaigns - IA US President - R Caucus Race - Feb 01, 2016 https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=765980 2024-10-11 www.ourcampaigns.comCountyTed CruzDonald TrumpMarco RubioBen CarsonRand PaulJeb BushCarly FiorinaJohn KasichMike HuckabeeAll Other CandidatesConsists of the vote totals for all candidates that did not receive delegates, which are: Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Jim Gilmore, and any other write-ins or candidates.Total#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%Adair10425.55%10425.55%8019.66%6114.99%122.95%40.98%163.93%20.49%112.70%133.20%407Adams8129.67%6824.91%4717.22%3010.99%82.93%72.56%165.86%103.66%31.10%31.10%273Allamakee18326.64%19328.09%13119.07%7711.21%162.33%111.60%547.86%20.29%91.31%111.60%687Appanoose26932.02%29234.76%9010.71%9210.95%202.38%131.55%91.07%40.48%445.24%70.84%840Audubon13536.10%9926.47%5614.97%338.82%112.94%102.67%41.07%51.34%205.35%10.27%374Benton59636.45%41025.08%24615.05%17110.46%724.40%110.67%352.14%271.65%342.08%332.02%1,635Black Hawk1,58526.82%1,36023.01%1,55126.24%4978.41%3576.04%1783.01%1312.22%530.90%721.22%1262.13%5,910Boone56632.20%41223.44%32018.20%17710.07%965.46%311.76%70.40%221.25%673.81%603.42%1,758Bremer40827.38%34723.29%38926.11%1348.99%463.09%382.55%241.61%503.36%191.28%352.35%1,490Buchanan30836.80%21725.93%11013.14%829.80%354.18%141.67%313.70%60.72%151.79%192.27%837Buena Vista30930.62%25124.88%22121.90%979.61%262.58%232.28%201.98%150.49%181.78%292.87%1,009Butler33236.48%22024.18%14515.93%10811.87%323.52%242.64%181.98%30.33%212.31%70.77%910Calhoun15928.55%13624.42%12121.72%376.64%203.59%101.80%81.44%71.26%356.28%244.31%557Carroll25624.95%29829.04%23022.42%696.73%313.02%605.85%444.29%141.36%111.07%131.27%1,026Cass22524.35%26228.35%17619.05%14215.37%90.97%343.68%101.08%212.27%171.84%283.03%924Cedar31028.97%28126.26%24022.43%1009.35%434.02%171.59%191.78%262.43%131.21%211.96%1,070Cerro Gordo65528.17%59725.68%44619.18%1847.91%783.35%1195.12%421.81%291.25%391.68%1365.84%2,325Cherokee15718.71%24829.56%24328.96%11914.18%121.43%161.91%111.31%50.60%172.03%111.32%839Chickasaw16126.79%16627.62%14323.79%579.48%183.00%111.83%274.49%30.50%61.00%91.50%601Clarke15527.83%20236.27%8815.80%5610.05%152.69%122.15%91.62%30.54%81.44%91.62%557Clay29128.39%29228.49%14914.54%15515.12%282.73%161.56%80.78%313.02%252.44%302.93%1,025Clayton29835.22%24929.43%10912.88%677.92%293.43%263.07%263.07%111.30%172.01%141.65%846Clinton62126.93%70930.75%45919.90%1596.90%944.08%1064.60%703.04%411.78%150.65%321.39%2,306Crawford22632.33%21430.62%11416.31%639.01%121.72%121.72%243.43%81.14%71.00%192.72%699Dallas1,69123.22%1,51020.74%2,46933.91%4896.72%2763.79%2132.93%1331.83%1672.29%610.84%2732.75%7,282Davis16831.64%20538.61%376.97%387.16%254.71%101.88%10.19%10.19%387.16%81.51%531Decatur17334.81%12725.55%7314.69%8016.10%193.82%51.01%20.40%40.80%61.21%81.60%497Delaware31735.46%19822.15%17219.24%9210.29%273.02%192.13%525.82%20.22%70.78%80.90%894Des Moines61328.30%65930.42%45120.82%2129.79%994.57%190.88%170.78%200.92%311.43%452.08%2,166Dickinson26021.63%34228.45%28623.79%15913.23%342.83%463.83%121.00%272.25%151.75%211.25%1,202Dubuque82420.73%1,08727.35%1,06026.67%3849.66%2305.79%952.39%972.44%541.36%481.21%962.42%3,975Emmet14335.48%12230.27%4611.41%4912.16%112.73%40.99%81.99%40.99%102.48%61.49%403Fayette34134.10%24024.10%18018.00%14414.40%272.70%181.80%181.80%60.60%171.70%90.90%1,000Floyd30540.13%20026.32%10513.82%8310.92%101.32%233.03%81.05%91.18%81.05%91.18%761Franklin22535.83%15925.32%10516.72%629.87%233.66%181.98%50.80%40.64%233.66%40.64%628Fremont8720.42%18242.72%7718.08%409.39%112.58%102.35%00.00%61.41%20.47%112.58%426Greene16229.67%16430.04%7714.10%6211.36%142.56%254.58%20.37%61.10%142.56%203.66%546Grundy27228.75%19820.93%26127.59%737.72%323.38%262.75%101.27%40.42%505.29%202.12%946Guthrie21828.91%20827.59%11815.65%10714.19%283.71%162.12%182.39%20.27%233.05%162.12%754Hamilton27728.94%26928.11%15916.61%899.30%485.02%131.36%141.46%202.09%252.61%434.39%957Hancock38545.35%36018.85%13215.55%718.36%212.47%222.59%192.24%60.71%161.88%172.00%1,049Hardin41732.83%29523.23%22517.72%13810.87%453.54%191.50%251.97%120.94%312.44%634.96%1,270Harrison28227.67%31530.91%11210.99%22121.69%171.67%50.49%242.36%100.98%100.98%232.26%1,019Henry37931.27%27322.52%22818.81%18915.59%302.48%312.56%181.49%120.99%332.72%191.57%1,212Howard10628.88%11230.52%8924.25%267.08%51.36%195.18%30.82%00.00%51.36%20.54%367Humboldt16827.77%20433.72%11118.35%487.93%162.64%142.31%60.99%30.50%172.81%182.98%605Ida13525.62%13625.81%13525.62%438.16%71.33%81.52%326.07%30.57%81.52%203.74%527Iowa35334.17%24924.10%16315.78%10510.16%565.42%111.06%252.42%141.36%333.19%242.32%1,033Jackson26528.49%30632.90%16918.17%646.88%343.66%262.80%212.26%111.18%90.97%252.70%930Jasper81234.94%58325.09%41717.94%2078.91%1004.30%461.98%311.33%130.56%723.10%431.85%2,324Jefferson27031.69%22326.17%10412.21%556.46%677.86%172.00%111.29%252.93%515.99%293.40%852Johnson1,41319.55%1,39419.29%2,20730.54%5317.35%6919.56%2293.17%1912.64%2843.93%751.04%2122.93%7,227Jones36335.11%25824.95%16716.15%10710.35%323.09%252.42%353.38%60.58%60.58%353.38%1,034Keokuk21630.77%22031.34%11616.52%638.97%192.71%131.85%111.57%50.71%233.28%162.27%702Kossuth28530.10%22423.65%19020.06%15015.84%181.90%131.37%40.42%151.58%272.85%212.27%947Lee33425.30%40930.98%24918.86%15711.89%362.73%191.44%513.86%161.21%261.97%231.74%1,320Linn3,42229.43%2,34420.16%2,82524.29%1,0729.22%6996.01%2622.25%3022.60%2622.25%990.85%3412.93%11,628Louisa25735.50%26136.05%7610.50%446.08%263.59%141.93%50.69%50.69%314.28%50.69%724Lucas21336.16%15926.99%7913.41%6811.54%244.07%101.70%91.53%00.00%183.06%91.53%589Lyon43239.02%17315.63%22920.69%20618.61%141.26%110.99%100.90%60.54%30.27%232.08%1,107Madison45233.51%37327.65%25018.53%1077.93%513.78%221.63%211.56%110.82%342.52%282.07%1,349Mahaska66934.13%42121.48%36818.78%20910.66%693.52%402.04%371.89%80.41%492.50%904.59%1,960Marion1,01135.20%53918.77%60621.10%2729.47%1234.28%742.58%411.43%301.04%742.58%1023.55%2,872Marshall63027.07%60826.13%50221.57%2269.71%753.22%612.62%572.45%331.42%502.15%853.65%2,327Mills24421.77%30026.76%26523.64%18216.24%332.94%100.89%232.05%151.34%70.62%423.75%1,121Mitchell11424.20%12025.48%5611.89%6112.95%347.22%102.12%5511.68%30.64%112.34%71.49%471Monona18536.13%15630.47%9418.36%418.01%81.56%20.39%61.17%10.20%91.76%101.95%512Monroe19536.04%17031.42%9717.93%254.62%234.25%30.55%40.74%40.74%183.33%20.37%541Montgomery13323.29%11820.67%12421.72%8514.89%264.55%274.73%274.73%101.75%101.75%111.93%571Muscatine57623.86%72029.83%63526.30%1104.56%1315.43%532.20%431.78%451.86%391.62%622.57%2,414O'Brien34728.47%25621.00%28123.05%22018.05%191.56%171.39%100.82%60.49%453.69%181.48%1,219Osceola11334.56%7823.85%5617.13%4212.84%82.45%133.98%72.14%10.31%30.92%61.84%327Page24928.52%23226.58%15617.87%15717.98%131.49%252.86%80.92%121.37%91.03%121.37%873Palo Alto11025.46%11727.08%9421.76%409.26%153.47%143.24%92.08%51.16%173.94%112.55%432Plymouth53028.10%61832.77%37319.78%19510.34%341.80%442.33%191.01%221.17%140.74%371.97%1,886Pocahontas18738.72%11022.77%6513.46%7014.49%132.69%91.86%51.04%20.41%163.31%61.25%483Polk7,86425.29%6,76421.75%8,36526.90%2,2977.39%1,6335.25%1,4054.52%4201.35%7732.49%5651.82%1,0123.26%31,098Pottawattamie94221.54%1,50834.48%75017.15%54312.42%1563.57%701.60%801.83%1272.90%250.57%1723.93%4,373Poweshiek28228.69%25826.25%18318.62%767.73%636.41%383.87%141.42%181.83%303.05%212.13%983Ringgold8425.30%10631.93%5015.06%5215.66%20.60%164.82%30.90%00.00%144.22%51.50%332Sac18727.95%21231.69%8112.11%619.12%172.54%192.84%121.79%71.05%182.69%558.22%669Scott2,39624.58%2,46525.28%2,55326.19%5325.46%4864.99%3533.62%2192.25%4364.47%780.80%2312.37%9,749Shelby20727.79%20327.25%12917.32%10914.63%233.09%91.21%222.95%91.21%182.42%163.23%745Sioux1,52433.17%50210.93%1,46931.98%68614.93%1172.55%761.65%390.85%450.98%350.76%1012.20%4,594Story1,81524.09%1,15215.29%2,41532.05%6418.51%6298.35%2122.81%1171.55%1932.56%1231.63%2373.14%7,534Tama30731.23%35035.61%12312.51%838.44%272.75%121.22%101.02%121.22%333.36%262.65%983Taylor7419.58%14037.04%5213.76%6316.67%102.65%102.65%61.59%61.59%92.38%82.11%378Union20328.92%19427.64%13519.23%8712.39%101.42%121.71%162.28%71.00%283.99%101.42%702Van Buren19636.77%15128.33%6311.82%5610.51%71.31%30.56%00.00%10.19%519.57%50.94%533Wapello48929.30%59235.47%24214.50%1277.61%503.00%241.44%100.60%90.54%1036.17%231.38%1,669Warren1,12029.40%98225.78%78420.58%3749.82%1975.17%952.49%370.97%441.16%762.00%1002.63%3,809Washington54235.10%32921.31%22214.38%19412.56%1046.74%634.08%301.94%130.84%231.49%241.55%1,544Wayne17140.81%11427.21%5713.60%368.59%30.72%92.15%51.19%71.67%153.58%20.48%419Webster43226.65%43526.84%28617.64%1207.40%623.82%442.71%171.05%281.73%764.69%1217.46%1,621Winnebago18730.31%11518.64%12820.75%9114.75%223.57%243.89%71.13%20.32%274.38%142.27%617Winneshiek25124.04%27426.25%20819.92%15114.46%403.83%262.49%272.59%302.87%232.20%141.34%1,044Woodbury1,36727.04%1,60031.65%1,06521.07%3947.79%1412.79%851.68%1142.26%440.87%230.45%2224.39%5,055Worth11530.67%11330.13%5514.67%256.67%143.73%92.40%112.93%51.33%184.80%102.67%375Wright19033.81%12922.95%12422.06%5810.32%71.25%162.85%40.71%61.07%152.67%132.31%562Totals51,66627.64%45,42924.30%43,22823.13%17,3949.31%8,4814.54%5,2382.80%3,4851.86%3,4741.86%3,3451.79%5,1922.78%186,932
thumb|250px|Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
#4389e3 Cruz—40-50%
#86b6f2 Cruz—30-40%
#b9d7ff Cruz—20-30%
Purple Tied between Cruz and Trump
#f2b3be Trump—20-30%
#e27f90 Trump—30-40%
#cc2f4a Trump—40-50%
Khaki Rubio—20-30%
Yellow Rubio—30-40%
Aftermath and controversy
The caucus results led to immediate controversy when Ben Carson accused Cruz's campaign of employing dishonest tactics, specifically claiming that Cruz supporters falsely told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out to convince them to switch their votes.Nolan D. McCaskill https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/ben-carson-ted-cruz-cheating-iowa-218615 Carson calls for Cruz camp dismissals after cheating allegations Politico February 2, 2016
Trump subsequently accused Cruz of "stealing" the Iowa caucuses through fraud, taking to social media to demand that Cruz be disqualified and the election results invalidated.Amy Tennery https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-cruz-idUSKCN0VC1Z6 Trump accuses Cruz of stealing Iowa caucuses through 'fraud' Reuters February 3, 2016 These accusations foreshadowed continued tensions between Cruz and Trump as the primary campaign progressed. According to an interview of Trump with Greta Van Susteren of On the Record, he said, “Everything about it was disgraceful. It was a fraud as far as I was concerned.”February 3, 2016 On the Record with Greta Van Susteren Fox News 2016-02-03 Van Susteren: You have tweeted that Sen. Ted Cruz stole the Iowa election.Trump: Everything about it was disgraceful. It was a fraud as far as I was concerned. https://archive.org/details/FOXNEWSW_20160204_000000_On_the_Record_With_Greta_Van_Susteren
The results also had an immediate impact on the Republican field, as Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns in the days following the caucuses.Goldmacher Shane Isenstadt Alex Strauss Daniel February 3, 2016 Rand Paul drops out of White House race https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/rand-paul-dropping-out-of-white-house-race-218675 PoliticoBradner Eric Preston Mark February 1, 2016 Mike Huckabee drops out of 2016 presidential race http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/politics/mike-huckabee-drops-out-of-2016-presidential-race/index.html CNN
Geographic and demographic analysis
Exit polling revealed Cruz's victory was built on strong support from evangelical voters, who comprised 62% of caucus participants. He won 33% of evangelical voters, while also performing strongly in rural counties and areas with high evangelical populations.Iowa Entrance Polls https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-republican-poll.html 2022-06-18 www.nytimes.com en
Trump's support was notably stronger in eastern Iowa and working-class areas, particularly along the Mississippi River. He performed best among first-time caucus participants and voters without college degrees. Rubio showed particular strength in suburban areas around Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and other population centers, winning 28% of college graduates and performing well among late-deciding voters.
2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses by demographic subgroup (Edison entrance polling)Iowa Entrance Polls https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/01/us/elections/iowa-republican-poll.html 2022-06-18 www.nytimes.com enDemographic subgroupCruzTrumpRubioCarson% of
total voteTotal vote27.624.323.19.390%GenderMen292525852%Women2724211148%Race/ethnicityWhite282423997%Age17–29 years old 2719241012%30–44 years old 312222616%45–64 years old 2825241046%65+ years old 2726221027%IdeologyVery Conservative442115940%Somewhat Conservative1924291145%Moderate93428614%Party IDRepublican302523979%Independent1922221120%EducationCollege Graduate2521 28951%Non-college 312817949%Issue regarded as most importantImmigration34 4410713%Economy1824 30927%Terrorism 332126825%Government spending 2719211132%Area typeUrban242328720%Suburban 282225736%Rural 2927181244%ReligionEvangelical 3321211262%Non-Evangelical19 2926538%
See also
2016 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses
Notes
References
30em
External links
RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process https://web.archive.org/web/20161108193454/https://www.gop.com/the-official-guide-to-the-2016-republican-nominating-process/ 2016-11-08
Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Iowa
2016
Iowa
Republican caucuses
Category:February 2016 in the United States