2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas

none June 2025 September 2023 2004 United States presidential election 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas Arkansas 1924 presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in Arkansas 2000 2008 United States presidential election in Arkansas 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 6 572,898 54.31% John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 0 469,953 44.55% 250px County results 250px Congressional district results Bush #f2b3be 40–50% #e27f90 50–60% #cc2f4a 60–70% Kerry #86b6f2 50–60% #4389e3 60–70% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush won the state in 2000 with just over 50%. This was both the last election in which Arkansas was decided by a single-digit margin and in which the Democrat received more than 40% of the state's vote. Primaries 2004 Arkansas Democratic presidential primary 2004 Arkansas Republican presidential primary Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%7B%7Bdead+link%7Cdate=July+2016+%7Cbot=InternetArchiveBot+%7Cfix-attempted=yes+%7D%7D Dcpoliticalreport.com www.dcpoliticalreport.com 2009-11-26 2010-11-21 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW%7B%7Bdead+link%7Cdate=July+2016+%7Cbot=InternetArchiveBot+%7Cfix-attempted=yes+%7D%7D usurped +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportLean RAssociated PressLean RCNNLikely RCook Political ReportLikely RNewsweekLean RNew York TimesLean RRasmussen ReportsLikely RResearch 2000Lean RWashington PostLikely RWashington TimesLean RZogby InternationalToss-upWashington DispatchLikely R Polling Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election#Arkansas Statewide opinion polling for the 2004 United States presidential election: Arkansas Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=5 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Fundraising Bush raised $1,387,692.https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President www.campaignmoney.com Kerry raised $466,194.https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President www.campaignmoney.com Advertising and visits Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN.com Specials www.cnn.comhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html CNN.com Specials www.cnn.com Analysis Early on, Kerry was seen to have a small but mostly insignificant chance at possibly flipping the state back to the Democratic Column. The Kerry Campaign saw Arkansas as a "Secondary Concern," focusing on the more important states such as Ohio and Wisconsin that were the key to winning the general election. During October however Bush began to widen the margin in many polls mostly due to Bush portraying Kerry as a "Northern Yankee big-city liberal" and a "Tax raiser" in the Presidential debates and after Osama bin Laden delivered a speech on the Arabic news network Al Jazeera days before the election quoted saying “Your security is in your own hands” Bush was essentially guaranteed to carry the state from then on.https://arktimes.com/news/cover-stories/2004/10/22/election-2004 Election 2004 Arkansas Times Staff October 22, 2004https://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/29/bin.laden.transcript/ CNN.com - Bin Laden: 'Your security is in your own hands' - Oct 29, 2004 CNNhttps://www.pbs.org/wnet/religionandethics/2004/11/05/november-5-2004-commentary-the-2004-election/13580/ November 5, 2004 ~ Commentary: The 2004 Election | November 5, 2004 | Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly PBS November 5, 2004 On election day, Bush performed better than what polls showed, outperforming nearly every single poll.https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=5 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were a handful of Delta counties; the state capital, Little Rock; Pine Bluff; and only a few counties to the south. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, the latter being the home son of Arkansas. In this election, Arkansas voted 7.3% to the right of the nation at large.Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ 2023-03-31 uselectionatlas.org Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections. This election represented, arguably, the last time Arkansas was considered competitive on a national political level, as the GOP would gain supporters due to an increased distaste for the social liberalism espoused by the Democratic Party. Over the next 12 years, all three Democratic Congressmen in the House representing Arkansas at the time would retire, while both Democratic Senators at the time would be defeated in "wave" elections. The Republican trend culminated in the state rejecting its former first lady, Hillary Clinton, by almost 27 points in the 2016 election. As of 2026, no statewide or federally elected position in Arkansas is held by a Democrat. 2024 11 As of the 2024 presidential election, Kerry remains the last Democratic candidate to win more than 40% of the vote. It is also the last election in which Jackson County, Monroe County, Clark County, Mississippi County, Lawrence County, Clay County, Poinsett County, Lincoln County, Bradley County, Randolph County, Hempstead County and Little River County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last time in which the state was decided by a single-digit margin of victory. Results 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansashttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/AR/ CNN.com Election 2004 www.cnn.comhttps://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=5&year=2004 2004 Presidential General Election Results - ArkansasPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Dick Cheney (incumbent) 572,898 54.31% 6 Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 469,953 44.55% 0 Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 6,171 0.58% 0 Independent Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,345 0.22% 0 Independent Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 2,083 0.20% 0 Independent David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 1,488 0.14% 0 Totals 1,054,945 100.00% 6 Voter turnout (Voter age) 50% By county CountyGeorge W. BushRepublicanJohn KerryDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Arkansas3,78954.55%3,11044.77%470.68%6799.78%6,946Ashley4,56753.65%3,88145.59%640.76%6868.06%8,512Baxter11,12860.05%7,12938.47%2731.47%3,99921.58%18,530Benton46,57168.37%20,75630.47%7941.17%25,81537.90%68,121Boone9,79366.27%4,64031.40%3442.32%5,15334.87%14,777Bradley2,01147.33%2,20651.92%320.75%-195-4.59%4,249Calhoun1,34058.29%93940.84%200.86%40117.45%2,299Carroll6,18459.00%4,16139.70%1361.30%2,02319.30%10,481Chicot1,72536.26%2,99362.92%390.82%-1,268-26.66%4,757Clark4,14444.99%4,99054.17%770.84%-846-9.18%9,211Clay2,75945.26%3,26453.54%731.20%-505-8.28%6,096Cleburne7,10760.43%4,51738.41%1371.16%2,59022.02%11,761Cleveland2,00957.47%1,45041.48%371.06%55915.99%3,496Columbia5,72957.82%4,10841.46%720.72%1,62116.36%9,909Conway4,00949.59%3,98249.26%931.15%270.33%8,084Craighead15,81853.08%13,66545.85%3181.07%2,1537.23%29,801Crawford13,39165.64%6,76433.16%2461.20%6,62732.48%20,401Crittenden6,93045.29%8,27754.10%930.61%-1,347-8.81%15,300Cross3,86454.62%3,13544.32%751.06%72910.30%7,074Dallas1,70050.18%1,67149.32%170.50%290.86%3,388Desha1,72937.21%2,85161.35%671.45%-1,122-24.14%4,647Drew3,26252.20%2,95247.24%350.56%3104.96%6,249Faulkner21,51458.64%14,53839.63%6341.73%6,97619.01%36,686Franklin4,18157.36%3,00841.27%1001.37%1,17316.09%7,289Fulton2,52250.90%2,37047.83%631.27%1523.07%4,955Garland21,73454.13%18,04044.93%3800.95%3,6949.20%40,154Grant4,20562.11%2,52437.28%410.61%1,68124.83%6,770Greene7,23751.86%6,56447.04%1541.10%6734.82%13,955Hempstead3,58048.04%3,81751.22%550.74%-237-3.18%7,452Hot Spring5,96049.40%5,90148.91%2041.69%590.49%12,065Howard2,73655.35%2,16643.82%410.83%57011.53%4,943Independence7,43057.11%5,44341.83%1381.06%1,98715.28%13,011Izard2,83351.57%2,58647.08%741.35%2474.49%5,493Jackson2,62442.19%3,51556.52%801.29%-891-14.33%6,219Jefferson10,21833.51%19,67564.52%6001.97%-9,457-31.01%30,493Johnson4,31153.59%3,62245.03%1111.38%6898.56%8,044Lafayette1,60450.27%1,56748.11%200.63%371.16%3,191Lawrence2,95144.61%3,54453.58%1201.81%-593-8.97%6,615Lee1,49236.57%2,54862.45%400.98%-1,056-25.88%4,080Lincoln1,92146.75%2,14952.30%390.95%-228-5.55%4,109Little River2,57548.64%2,67750.57%420.80%-102-1.93%5,294Logan5,07659.36%3,36139.31%1141.33%1,71520.05%8,551Lonoke14,39865.36%7,45433.84%1780.80%6,94431.52%22,030Madison3,87360.67%2,42137.92%901.41%1,45222.75%6,384Marion4,12760.10%2,60237.89%1382.01%1,52522.21%6,867Miller8,44857.56%6,13941.82%910.62%2,30915.74%14,678Mississippi6,12143.25%7,59353.65%4393.11%-1,472-10.40%14,153Monroe1,58643.25%2,04955.88%320.87%-463-12.63%3,667Montgomery2,36759.80%1,52438.50%671.69%84321.30%3,958Nevada1,75250.39%1,69448.72%310.89%581.67%3,477Newton2,77963.48%1,50634.40%932.11%1,27329.08%4,378Ouachita5,34550.19%5,18848.71%1171.09%1571.48%10,650Perry2,43554.95%1,92143.35%751.69%51411.60%4,431Phillips3,16135.65%5,64263.62%650.73%-2,481-27.97%8,868Pike2,01359.79%1,31038.91%441.30%70320.88%3,367Poinsett3,55546.03%4,06952.69%991.28%-514-6.66%7,723Polk5,19266.57%2,47331.71%1341.72%2,71934.86%7,799Pope13,61465.13%7,10033.97%1880.90%6,51431.16%20,902Prairie2,03056.02%1,56243.10%320.88%46812.92%3,624Pulaski67,90344.20%84,53255.03%1,1850.77%-16,629-10.83%153,620Randolph3,15847.37%3,41251.18%971.44%-254-3.81%6,667St. Francis3,81539.79%5,68459.28%890.93%-1,869-19.49%9,588Saline24,86463.15%14,15335.94%3590.92%10,71127.21%39,376Scott2,51462.26%1,47336.48%511.26%1,04125.78%4,038Searcy2,56564.25%1,37034.32%571.44%1,19529.93%3,992Sebastian27,30361.76%16,47937.27%4290.97%10,82424.49%44,211Sevier2,51654.68%2,03544.23%501.08%48110.45%4,601Sharp4,09754.85%3,26543.71%1081.45%83211.14%7,470Stone3,18857.45%2,25540.64%1061.91%93316.81%5,549Union10,50258.89%7,07139.65%2591.46%3,43119.24%17,832Van Buren3,98854.08%3,31044.89%761.03%6789.19%7,374Washington35,72655.73%27,59743.05%7801.22%8,12912.68%64,103White17,00164.34%9,12934.55%2951.12%7,87229.79%26,425Woodruff1,02133.74%1,97265.17%331.09%-951-31.43%3,026Yell3,67855.23%2,91343.75%681.03%76511.48%6,659Totals572,89854.31%469,95344.55%12,0941.14%102,9459.76%1,054,945 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican 20em Ashley (Largest city: Crossett) Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro) Cross (Largest city: Wynne) Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce) Drew (Largest city: Monticello) Greene (Largest city: Paragould) Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern) Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend) Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps) Nevada (Largest city: Prescott) Ouachita (Largest city: Camden) right 210px Swing by county Legend #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% 210px Trend by county Legend #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% 210px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip By congressional district Bush won all four congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project District Bush Kerry RepresentativeArkansas 1 1st 52% 47%Marion BerryArkansas 2 2nd 51% 48%Vic SnyderArkansas 3 3rd 62% 36%John BoozmanArkansas 4 4th 51% 48%Mike Ross Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney: Bobbi Dodge Gay White Ida Fineburg John Felts Jim Davis Martha McCaskill See also United States presidential elections in Arkansas Presidency of George W. Bush References Arkansas 2004 United States presidential