1700 Cascadia earthquake

Megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest region 1700 Cascadia earthquake North America yes 1700 01 26 circa 21:00 PST 8.7–9.2 w yAtwater Musumi-Rokkaku Satake Yoshinobu 2005 98 45 -125 type:event inline,title Cascadia subduction zone Megathrust Yes Many Native Americans killed or displaced by shaking or subsequent tsunami official17000127050000000 The 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. The megathrust earthquake involved the Juan de Fuca plate from mid-Vancouver Island, south along the Pacific Northwest coast as far as northern California. The plate slipped an average of 20 m ft us off along a fault rupture about 1000 km mi us 1 off long. The earthquake caused a tsunami which struck the west coast of North America and the coast of Japan.The Orphan Tsunami of 1700 – Japanese Clues to a Parent Earthquake in North America https://archive.org/details/orphantsunamiof100atwa B. F. Atwater Brian Atwater S. Musumi-Rokkaku K. Satake Kenji Satake T. Yoshinobu U. Kazue D. K. Yamaguchi 2005 U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1707 United States Geological Survey–University of Washington Press 978-0-295-98535-0 registration Japanese tsunami records, along with reconstructions of the wave moving across the ocean, put the earthquake at about 9:00 PM Pacific Time on the evening of 26 January 1700.Kenji Satake Kunihiko Shimazaki Yoshinobu Tsuji Kazue Ueda 18 January 1996 Time and size of a giant earthquake in Cascadia inferred from Japanese tsunami records of January 1700 Nature 379 6562 246–249 1996Natur.379..246S 10.1038/379246a0 8305522 thumb|upright=1.2|Cascadia subduction zone right|thumb|Sandsheet thought to have resulted from the tsunami caused by the 1700 earthquake, exposed on the bank of the Salmon River, Oregon Japanese records The earthquake took place at about 21:00 PT on January 26, 1700 (NS). Although there are no written records for the region from the time, the timing of the earthquake has been inferred from Japanese records of a tsunami that does not correlate with any other Pacific Rim quake. The Japanese records exist primarily in the modern-day Iwate Prefecture, in communities such as Tsugaruishi, Miyako (Kuwagasaki) and Ōtsuchi. The fact that the waves were recorded as striking Ōtsuchi and Kuwagasaki on the same day and hour helped researchers pinpoint the estimated date, time, and place of origin of the earthquake.M 9.0 - The 1700 Cascadia Earthquake According to Japanese records, destructive waves hit towns along the Pacific Coast of Japan on the 8th and 9th days of the 12th month of Genroku 12, which would be equivalent to January 27 and 28, 1700. Based on the damage reports in Japanese records, the maximum wave heights were estimated to be in the range of 2–5 meters. At Kuwagasaki, 13 houses were destroyed by flooding and 20 in a subsequent fire, representing about 10% of all buildings in the town. At Ōtsuchi, two buildings and two salt kilns were damaged and some fields and paddies were also flooded. At Miho, the village headman observed the waves and warned the villagers to flee to higher ground. No damage was reported there. At Nakaminato, where oceangoing ships unloaded their cargoes to smaller vessels to travel by river to Edo (now Tokyo), a ship carrying 28 metric tons of rice was unable to enter the port due to high waves. Later that evening, a storm drove it onto a rocky shore, killing two sailors and destroying the cargo. In the Tanabe area, the waves flooded wheat fields, rice paddies, and a storehouse, and ascended the moat of Tanabe Castle (Kii) Tanabe Castle ja 田辺城 (紀伊国). As no one in Japan had felt an earthquake before the waves struck, many writers were reluctant to call them a tsunami, with some referring to them as merely high tide or high waves. An observer at Kuwagasaki called it a tsunami while the village headman of Miho was puzzled after observing that the waves behaved like a tsunami but no earthquake had been felt in the area. Scientific research The most important clue linking the tsunami in Japan and the earthquake in the Pacific Northwest comes from studies of tree rings (dendrochronology), which show that several "ghost forests" of red cedar trees in Oregon and Washington, killed by lowering of coastal forests into the tidal zone by the earthquake, have outermost growth rings that formed in 1699, the last growing season before the tsunami.https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one The Really Big One Schulz Kathryn Kathryn Schulz The New Yorker July 20, 2015 This includes both inland stands of trees, such as one on the Copalis River in Washington, and pockets of tree stumps that are now under the ocean surface and become exposed only at low tide."Jan. 26, 1700: How Scientists Know When The Last Big Earthquake Happened Here". Oregon Public Broadcasting, January 26, 2015. Sediment layers in these locations demonstrate a pattern consistent with seismic and tsunami events around this time."Ghosts of Tsunamis Past" https://web.archive.org/web/20180828035721/https://www.amnh.org/explore/science-bulletins/earth/documentaries/tsunami-science-reducing-the-risk/ghosts-of-tsunamis-past/ 2018-08-28 . American Museum of Natural History. Core samples from the ocean floor, as well as debris samples from some earthquake-induced landslides in the Pacific Northwest, also support this timing of the event. Archaeological research in the region has uncovered evidence of several coastal villages having been flooded and abandoned around 1700. It was once conjectured that the Cascadia earthquake may also have been linked to the Bridge of the Gods – Bonneville Slide and the Tseax Cone eruption in British Columbia, Canada.https://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/pacnw/paleo/greateq/20020515.html https://web.archive.org/web/20081024134333/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/pacnw/paleo/greateq/20020515.php 2008-10-24 Great Cascadia Earthquake Penrose Conference 2002-05-15 Hill, Richard L. The Oregonian However, 21st-century investigations using radiocarbon dating and dendrochronology date the Bonneville landslide to around 1450.O'Connor Jim E. September 2004 The Evolving Landscape of the Columbia River Gorge: Lewis and Clark and Cataclysms on the Columbia https://wpg.forestry.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/seminars/O%27Connor_2004_Columbia%20River.pdf live Oregon Historical Quarterly 105 3 390–421 10.1353/ohq.2004.0043 131976728 https://web.archive.org/web/20090328125319/http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ohq/105.3/oconnor.html 2009-03-28Pringle Patrick T. 2009 The Bonneville slide http://www.centralia.edu/academics/earthscience/pringle/pubs/pringle_2009_bonneville_landslide_explorations.pdf Columbia Gorge Interpretive Center Museum Explorations Fall-Winter 2009 2–3 https://web.archive.org/web/20180105011950/http://www.centralia.edu/academics/earthscience/pringle/pubs/pringle_2009_bonneville_landslide_explorations.pdf 2018-01-05 2012-02-03c. 2015 10,000 years of Cascadia earthquakes https://projects.oregonlive.com/maps/earthquakes/timeline June 11, 2019 The Oregonian Cultural research The contemporary indigenous groups of Cascadia had no known written documentation like that of the Japanese tsunami, but numerous oral traditions describing a great earthquake and inundation exist among indigenous coastal peoples from British Columbia to Northern California.https://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/tsunami/NAlegends.html Tsunamis and Earthquakes – Native American Legends of Tsunamis in Pacific NW – USGS PCMSC August 2022 These do not specify a date, and not all earthquake stories in the region can be ascribed to the 1700 quake; however, virtually all of the native peoples in the region have at least one traditional story of an event of unmatched destructive power. Some of the stories contain temporal clues—such as a time estimate in generations since the eventRuth S. Ludwin Robert Dennis Deborah Carver Alan D. McMillan Robert Losey John Clague Chris Jonientz-Trisler Janine Bowechop Jacilee Wray Karen James http://oceanlink.island.net/SOLE/LP/FN/1700_tsunami.pdf Dating the 1700 Cascadia Earthquake: Great Coastal Earthquakes in Native Stories Seismological Research Letters 76 2 2005 140–148 10.1785/gssrl.76.2.140 2005SeiRL..76..140L 2015-07-24 https://web.archive.org/web/20150724120448/http://oceanlink.island.net/SOLE/LP/FN/1700_tsunami.pdf 2015-07-24 dead—which suggest a date range in the late 1600s or early 1700s, or which concur with the event's timing in other ways. For instance, the Huu-ay-aht legend of a large earthquake and ocean wave devastating their settlements at Pachena Bay places the event on a winter evening shortly after the village's residents had gone to sleep (consistent with the 9:00 PM reconstructed time).Earth will rip open like a zipper, expert says, when overdue Vancouver Island quake strikes Toronto Star 18 January 2015 Dirk Meissner 19 January 2015 https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/01/18/vancouver-island-will-rip-open-like-a-zipper-when-overdue-megathrust-quake-strikes.html Every community on Pachena Bay was wiped out except for Masit on a mountainside 75 ft m 0 flip above sea level."Prepare for next tsunami, says chief". Raven's Eye, Vol. 8, No. 9, 2009. The only other Panchena Bay survivor was a young woman named Anacla aq sop, who happened to be staying that day at Kiix-in, located on the less-tsunami-impacted Barkley Sound. Kwakwakaʼwakw (Kwakiutl) stories from the north end of Vancouver Island report a nighttime earthquake that caused virtually all houses in their community to collapse; Cowichan stories from Vancouver Island's inner coast speak of a nighttime earthquake, causing a landslide that buried an entire village. Makah stories from Washington speak of a great night-time earthquake, of which the only survivors were those who immediately fled inland before the tsunami hit."Cascadia’s Locked Fault Means Massive Earthquake Is Due in Pacific Northwest: Seismologists" https://web.archive.org/web/20150731074949/http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2014/12/16/cascadias-locked-fault-means-massive-earthquake-due-pacific-northwest-seismologists 2015-07-31 . Indian Country Today Media Network, December 16, 2014. The Quileute people in Washington have a story about a flood so powerful that villagers in their canoes were swept inland all the way to Hood Canal."Haida Gwaii Quake Brings Home the Importance of Quileute Relocation Legislation" https://web.archive.org/web/20160823235547/http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2012/11/06/haida-gwaii-quake-brings-home-importance-quileute-relocation-legislation-144214 2016-08-23 . Indian Country Today Media Network, November 6, 2012. Oral history from southern Oregon describes a large tidal wave that uprooted trees and swept away villages, with people tying their canoes to treetops and some canoes being torn loose and swept away. Ethnographic research has focused on a common regional pattern of art and mythology depicting a great battle between a thunderbird and a whale, as well as cultural signifiers such as earthquake-inspired ritual masks and dances."Get ready for the Big One". The Globe and Mail, April 22, 2011. Future threats thumb|upright=1.3|Cascadia earthquake sources thumb|upright=1.3|A scenario of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone by the United States Geological Survey. The geological record reveals that great earthquakes with moment magnitude 8 or higher occur in the Cascadia subduction zone about every 500 years on average, often accompanied by tsunamis. There is evidence of at least 13 events at intervals from about 300 to 900 years with an average of 570–590 years.Great Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis of the past 6700 years, Coquille River estuary, southern coastal Oregon Robert C. Witter Harvey M. Kelsey Eileen Hemphill-Haley Geological Society of America Bulletin 115 10 1289–1306 2003GSAB..115.1289W October 2003 10.1130/b25189.1 As seen in the 1700 quake, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, subduction zone earthquakes can cause large tsunamis, and many coastal areas in the region have prepared tsunami evacuation plans in anticipation of a possible future Cascadia earthquake. However, the major nearby cities, notably Seattle, Portland, Vancouver, Victoria, and Tacoma might be sheltered from the full brunt of a tsunami. These cities do have many vulnerable structures, especially bridges and unreinforced brick buildings; consequently, most of the damage to the cities would probably be from the earthquake itself. One expert asserts that buildings in Seattle are inadequate even to withstand an event of the size of the magnitude 7.9 1906 San Francisco earthquake, let alone a more powerful one.https://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/opinion/28yanev.html Yanev, Peter Shake, Rattle, Seattle The New York Times 27 March 2010 WK11 Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA's Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, stated, "Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast." Recent findings conclude that the Cascadia subduction zone is more complex and volatile than previously believed.A Major Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest Looks Even Likelier https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/08/a-major-earthquake-in-the-pacific-northwest-just-got-more-likely/495407/ The Atlantic August 16, 2016 In 2010, geologists predicted a 37% chance of a magnitude 8.2+ event within 50 years, and a 10% to 15% chance that the entire Cascadia subduction zone will rupture with a magnitude 9+ event within the same time frame.http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/node/13426 Odds Are 1-In-3 That A Huge Quake Will Hit Northwest in Next 50 Years 2010-05-24 24 May 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20100527090117/http://oregonstate.edu/ua/ncs/node/13426 27 May 2010 Oregon State University https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100524121250.htm Odds are about 1-in-3 that mega-earthquake will hit Pacific Northwest in next 50 years, scientists say May 25, 2010 Oregon State University ScienceDaily Geologists have also determined the Pacific Northwest is not prepared for such an earthquake. The tsunami produced could reach heights of 80 to 100 ft m flip.http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/big_earthquake_coming_sooner_t.html Perilous Situation 2009-05-12 https://web.archive.org/web/20090423024022/http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/04/big_earthquake_coming_sooner_t.html 23 April 2009 The Oregonian 2009-04-19 A 2004 study revealed the potential for relative mean sea level rise (caused by subsidence of coastal land) along the Cascadia subduction zone. It postulated that cities on the west coast of Vancouver Island, such as Tofino and Ucluelet, are at risk for a 1 to 2 m ft on 1 subsidence relative to mean sea level.Coseismic subsidence in the 1700 great Cascadia earthquake: Coastal estimates versus elastic dislocation models Lucinda J. Leonard Roy D. Hyndman Stéphane Mazzotti 10.1130/B25369.1 GSA Bulletin 116 5–6 655–670 2004GSAB..116..655L 2004 The confirmation of their oral traditions about a great earthquake has led many indigenous groups in the area to initiate projects to relocate their coastal communities to higher and safer ground in preparation for the predicted next earthquake. The Huu-ay-aht People have rebuilt their administration building on a high point in their territory; coastal residents are immediately evacuated to this building whenever a tsunami warning is issued, as an interim measure toward eventually relocating all residents to higher ground. https://vancouversun.com/technology/Monster+earthquake+threat+looms+over+coastal+communities/6279087/story.html Monster earthquake threat looms over B.C. coastal communities Vancouver Sun March 8, 2012 Margaret Munro January 27, 2019 February 3, 2019 https://web.archive.org/web/20190203170713/http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Monster+earthquake+threat+looms+over+coastal+communities/6279087/story.html dead The Quileute people secured a land grant from the US government in 2012 to move their settlement inland, both as protection from a future tsunami threat and because of more frequent flooding on the Quillayute River. The Shoalwater Bay Indian Tribe also sought federal funding to move their community uphill receiving a FEMA PDM grant to build the first vertical evacuation tower on their coast, completed near the Tokeland Marina in 2022.https://www.opb.org/article/2022/08/08/coastal-washington-shoalwater-bay-indian-tribe-earthquake-tsunami/ Coastal Washington tribe creates higher ground by building tsunami tower, first of its type here 2023-02-10 https://web.archive.org/web/20230210052912/https://www.opb.org/article/2022/08/08/coastal-washington-shoalwater-bay-indian-tribe-earthquake-tsunami/ 10 February 2023 Oregon Public Broadcasting 2022-08-08https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/climate/native-tribes-relocation-climate.html Here's Where the U.S. Is Testing a New Response to Rising Seas 2023-02-10 https://web.archive.org/web/20230210053619/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/climate/native-tribes-relocation-climate.html/ 10 February 2023 The New York Times 2022-11-02 In 2023, Washington scientists reported on a detailed study of a high-pressure and high-temperature seafloor seep, likely on the plate boundary, offshore of Oregon.Hickey Hannah Warm liquid spewing from Oregon seafloor comes from Cascadia fault, could offer clues to earthquake hazards https://www.washington.edu/news/2023/04/10/warm-liquid-spewing-from-oregon-seafloor-comes-from-cascadia-fault-could-offer-clues-to-earthquake-hazards/ UW News 13 April 2023 10 Apr 2023 The first seep found on the CSZ, it has been named 'Pythia's Oasis', and may play a role in the regulation of overpressures.Brendan T. Philip Fluid sources and overpressures within the central Cascadia Subduction Zone revealed by a warm, high-flux seafloor seep Science Advances 25 Jan 2023 9 4 eadd6688 10.1126/sciadv.add6688 36696502 9876559 2023SciA....9D6688P Some other subduction zones have major earthquakes every 100 to 200 years; the longer interval here may indicate unusually large stress buildup and subsequent unusually large earthquake slip.http://pnsn.org/outreach/earthquakesources/csz Cascadia Subduction Zone Pacific Northwest Seismic Network See also 1585 Aleutian Islands earthquake 1949 Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake Geology of the Pacific Northwest List of earthquakes in Canada List of earthquakes in the United States List of historical earthquakes List of tsunamis Lists of earthquakes Neskowin Ghost Forest References Significant Earthquake Information https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/event-more-info/9954 National Geophysical Data Center / World Data Service (NGDC/WDS) National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA 10.7289/V5TD9V7K 1972 Data Set Further reading Diego Melgar Melgar Diego Was the January 26th, 1700 Cascadia Earthquake Part of a Rupture Sequence? Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126 10 2021 e2021JB021822 2169-9313 10.1029/2021jb021822 free 2021JGRB..12621822M External links General Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquakes: A magnitude 9.0 earthquake scenario – The Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup 2005 Tsunami Forecast Model Animation: Cascadia 1700 – Pacific Tsunami Warning Center USGS Scientist Shows Evidence for 300-Year-Old Tsunami to Participants in International Tsunami Training Institute – USGS Native and Japanese accounts Native American Stories expand history – Pacific Northwest Seismic Network Native American Legends of Tsunamis in Pacific NW – United States Geological Survey Fault slip and seismic moment of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake inferred from Japanese tsunami descriptions – Journal of Geophysical Research Japanese Shipwreck Adds To Evidence Of Great Cascadia Earthquake In 1700 – ScienceDaily 10.3133/pp1707 2005 2015 2nd English, Japanese Atwater, Brian F. Musumi-Rokkaku, Satoko Satake, Kenji Tsuji, Yoshinobu Ueda, Kazue Yamaguchi, David K. The orphan tsunami of 1700 – Japanese clues to a parent earthquake in North America Professional Paper Professional Paper 146 United States Geological Survey 2015orts.book.....A 2027/osu.32435085226595 9780295985350 https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/pp1707 Current hazards Surviving a Tsunami – Lessons from Chile, Hawaii, and Japan – United States Geological Survey Big earthquake coming sooner than we thought, Oregon geologist says – The Oregonian Category:1700s earthquakes Category:1700 in North America Category:1700 disasters Category:18th-century tsunamis Category:Pre-statehood history of California 1700 Cascadia 1700 Cascadia Category:Earthquakes in the United States Category:Natural disasters in Oregon 1700 Cascadia 1700 Cascadia 1700 Cascadia Category:Tsunamis in the United States 1700 Cascadia