2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico

none 2008 United States presidential election December 2016 December 2016 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico New Mexico presidential no 2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico 2004 2012 United States presidential election in New Mexico 2012 November 4, 2008 File:Obama portrait crop.jpg 200x200px Barack Obama Democratic Party (United States) Illinois Joe Biden 5 472,422 56.91% File:John McCain official portrait 2009 (cropped).jpg John McCain Republican Party (United States) Arizona Sarah Palin 0 346,832 41.78% 265px County results 265px Congressional district results 1 Obama #86b6f2 50–60% #4389e3 60–70% #1666cb 70–80% #0645b4 80–90% McCain #F2B3BE 40–50% #e27f90 50–60% #cc2f4a 60–70% #d40000 70–80% President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Barack Obama Democratic Party (United States) The 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 4, 2008. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. New Mexico was won by the Democratic nominee, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, by a 15.13% margin of victory; Obama took 56.91% of the vote while his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain of Arizona, took 41.78%. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered it as a safe blue state. Due to the extremely narrow margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections (less than 1% in 2004 and less than 0.1% in 2000), it started out as a swing state, but hypothetical general election match-up polls taken in the state continued to show a big lead for Obama. Obama's polling advantage in New Mexico increased so much that McCain did not campaign nearly as much there as he did elsewhere, despite it neighboring his home state of Arizona. A large Hispanic and Native American as well as a trending Democratic population put Obama over the top.Cost Jay Sean Trende Sean Trende Election Review, Part 3: The West http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/01/election_review_part_3_the_wes.html 2009-01-18 RealClearPolitics 2009-05-11 Obama became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win a majority of New Mexico's vote in a presidential election. Obama's winning margin of over 125,000 votes is the largest in history for a presidential candidate in New Mexico. To date, this is the most recent time a Democrat carried Luna County. Primaries 2008 New Mexico Democratic primary 2008 New Mexico Republican primary Campaign Predictions There were 16 news organizations that made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day: +SourceRankingD.C. Political Report2009-01-01 D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html 2021-08-23 usurped https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html January 1, 2009Likely D flipCook Political Report2015-05-05 Presidential http://cookpolitical.com/presidential 2021-08-23 https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential May 5, 2015Lean D flipThe Takeaway2009-04-22 Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ 2021-08-23 https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/ April 22, 2009Solid D flipElectoral-vote.comElectoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily https://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Dec31.html 2021-08-23 electoral-vote.comLean D flipWashington PostBased on TakeawayLean D flipPoliticoPOLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com https://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html 2016-09-22 www.politico.comLean D flipRealClearPoliticsRealClearPolitics Electoral College https://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/index.php live https://web.archive.org/web/20210105161334/https://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/index.php 2021-01-05 2021-12-19 RealClearPoliticsLean D flipFiveThirtyEightSolid D flipCQ PoliticsCQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08/ dead https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08 June 14, 2009 December 20, 2009 CQ PoliticsSafe D flipThe New York TimesNagourney Adam Zeleny Jeff Carter Shan 2008-11-04 The Electoral Map: Key States The New York Times http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html?scp=1&sq=electoral%20college%20map&st=cse May 26, 2010Solid D flipCNN2008-10-31 October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs CNN http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ May 26, 2010 June 19, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/ deadLean D flipNPRSolid D flipMSNBCLean D flipFox NewsApril 27, 2010 Winning The Electoral College Fox News http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/winning-the-electoral-college/Likely D flipAssociated Pressroadto270 http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/ 2016-09-22 hosted.ap.org December 8, 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081208002123/http://hosted.ap.org/specials/interactives/campaign_plus/roadto270/ deadLikely D flipRasmussen ReportsElection 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update 2016-09-22 www.rasmussenreports.comSafe D flip Polling Statewide opinion polling for the 2008 United States presidential election#New Mexico Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: New Mexico Obama won a majority of the pre-election polls taken in the state, including sweeping all of them taken after September 14. The final three polls averaged the Democrat leading 55% to 43%.Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections Fundraising John McCain raised a total of $1,016,376 in the state. Barack Obama raised $3,987,438.http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=NM&cand_id=P00000001 Presidential Campaign Finance fec.gov December 19, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085804/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=NM&cand_id=P00000001 March 24, 2009 dead Advertising and visits Obama and his interest groups spent $4,535,378. McCain and his interest groups spent $3,606,796.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/ad.spending/ CNN Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com 2010-05-26 The Democratic ticket visited the state five times to the Republicans' eight times.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/candidate.visits/ CNN Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com 2010-05-26 Analysis section December 2016Hispanic voters comprised 41% of New Mexico's electorate in 20082013-04-23 Latino Voters in the 2012 Election http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2012/11/2012_Latino_vote_exit_poll_analysis_final_11-07-12.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20130423082537/http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2012/11/2012_Latino_vote_exit_poll_analysis_final_11-07-12.pdf April 23, 2013 2021-11-17 and make up a plurality of the state's population.2008-02-02 Hispanics in the 2008 Election: New Mexico https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2008/02/01/hispanics-in-the-2008-election-new-mexico/ 2024-06-03 Pew Research Center en-US George W. Bush received over 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally in 2004. This support was enough for Bush to nip John Kerry by approximately 6,000 votes in New Mexico in 2004. In the previous two elections, New Mexico had been a very close swing state. Al Gore won the state by 300 votes in 2000, which was even narrower than the controversial results in Florida. However, during the 2008 election, New Mexico was regarded as a safe state for Obama. John McCain from neighboring Arizona and held similar views on illegal immigration to those of Bush. Ultimately, McCain obtained 31% of the national Hispanic vote to Obama's 67%, far less than Bush's 44% to John Kerry's 53% in 2004. Native Americans also represent a key voting demographic in New Mexico.https://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/election2008/2008/11/paying-attention-to-the-n.html Paying Attention to the Native American Vote PBS Obama won the Native American vote, 78–21%, and carried most of the counties within the confines of the Navajo Nation.http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/new-mexico.html New Mexico - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times elections.nytimes.com 2016-08-31 The Republican base in New Mexico consists of the more rural and thinly-populated southeastern part of the state. Democrats are strongest in the state capital, Santa Fe, and its close-in suburbs. The city of Albuquerque and the southwestern part of the state both lean Democratic, but not as overwhelmingly as Santa Fe. In 2008, Obama carried the state by a 15-point margin, largely by dominating the Albuquerque area. It was his strongest performance in a state which had voted for Bush in the previous election. He won Bernalillo County, home to Albuquerque itself, by 21 points; Kerry had won it by four points in 2004. While McCain dominated the southeastern part of the state, it was not nearly enough to overcome Obama's edge in the Albuquerque area.Election Results 2008 http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html New York Times 2009-05-11 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20041103020223/http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/history/ch13.htm November 3, 2004 2024 11 As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last election in which Luna County voted for the Democratic candidate. During the same election, former Democratic U.S. Representative Tom Udall, who had represented New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, defeated former Republican U.S. Representative Steve Pearce, who had represented New Mexico's 2nd congressional district, for an open U.S. Senate seat that was vacated by Republican Pete Domenici once it was discovered that he had brain cancer. Former Republican U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who represented New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, vacated her seat to challenge Pearce in the GOP senatorial primary only to lose the nomination to him. As a result, all three of New Mexico's U.S. House seats were up for grabs, and Democrats captured all three of them. At the state level, Democrats increased their majorities in both houses of the New Mexico Legislature, picking up three seats in both the New Mexico House of Representatives and New Mexico Senate. Results 2008 United States presidential election in New Mexico Democratic Party (United States) Barack Obama Joe Biden 472,422 56.91% +7.86 Republican Party (United States) John McCain Sarah Palin 346,832 41.78% −8.06 Independent (United States) Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 5,327 0.64% +0.10 Libertarian Party (United States) Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 2,428 0.29% −0.02 Constitution Party (United States) Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 1,597 0.19% +0.09 Green Party of the United States Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 1,552 0.19% +0.03 830,158 100.00% Democratic Party (United States) By county County Barack ObamaDemocratic John McCainRepublican Various candidatesOther parties Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Bernalillo 171,556 60.03% 110,521 38.67% 3,701 1.30% 61,035 21.36% 285,778 Catron 664 31.44% 1,398 66.19% 50 2.37% -734 -34.75% 2,112 Chaves 8,197 37.07% 13,651 61.74% 264 1.19% -5,454 -24.67% 22,112 Cibola 5,827 64.05% 3,131 34.42% 139 1.53% 2,696 29.63% 9,097 Colfax 3,490 54.67% 2,805 43.94% 89 1.39% 685 10.73% 6,384 Curry 4,670 32.35% 9,599 66.48% 169 1.17% -4,929 -34.13% 14,438 De Baca 359 34.39% 676 64.75% 9 0.86% -317 -30.36% 1,044 Dona Ana 40,282 58.14% 28,068 40.51% 930 1.35% 12,214 17.63% 69,280 Eddy 7,351 36.58% 12,500 62.21% 242 1.21% -5,149 -25.63% 20,093 Grant 8,142 59.19% 5,406 39.30% 207 1.51% 2,736 19.89% 13,755 Guadalupe 1,557 70.90% 620 28.23% 19 0.87% 937 42.67% 2,196 Harding 260 41.53% 358 57.19% 8 1.28% -98 -15.66% 626 Hidalgo 993 50.90% 936 47.98% 22 1.12% 57 2.92% 1,951 Lea 5,108 27.40% 13,347 71.58% 190 1.02% -8,239 -44.18% 18,645 Lincoln 3,535 36.46% 6,001 61.89% 160 1.65% -2,466 -25.43% 9,696 Los Alamos 5,824 52.62% 5,064 45.75% 181 1.63% 760 6.87% 11,069 Luna 4,311 51.69% 3,870 46.40% 159 1.91% 441 5.29% 8,340 McKinley 16,572 71.41% 6,382 27.50% 253 1.09% 10,190 43.91% 23,207 Mora 2,168 78.55% 569 20.62% 23 0.83% 1,599 57.93% 2,760 Otero 8,610 39.56% 12,806 58.83% 350 1.61% -4,196 -19.27% 21,766 Quay 1,547 38.71% 2,367 59.23% 82 2.06% -820 -20.52% 3,996 Rio Arriba 12,703 74.99% 4,086 24.12% 151 0.89% 8,617 50.87% 16,940 Roosevelt 2,303 34.27% 4,311 64.15% 106 1.58% -2,008 -29.88% 6,720 Sandoval 32,669 55.72% 25,193 42.97% 768 1.31% 7,476 12.75% 58,630 San Juan 18,028 38.76% 27,869 59.92% 614 1.32% -9,841 -21.16% 46,511 San Miguel 10,320 79.75% 2,478 19.15% 143 1.10% 7,842 60.60% 12,941 Santa Fe 55,567 76.94% 15,807 21.89% 849 1.17% 39,760 55.05% 72,223 Sierra 2,352 42.88% 3,017 55.00% 116 2.12% -665 -12.12% 5,485 Socorro 4,696 59.48% 3,032 38.40% 167 2.12% 1,664 21.08% 7,895 Taos 13,816 81.82% 2,866 16.97% 204 1.21% 10,950 64.85% 16,886 Torrance 3,087 44.47% 3,735 53.81% 119 1.72% -648 -9.34% 6,941 Union 492 28.24% 1,227 70.44% 23 1.32% -735 -42.20% 1,742 Valencia 15,366 53.17% 13,136 45.45% 397 1.38% 2,230 7.72% 28,899Total 472,42256.91%346,83241.78%10,9041.31%125,59015.13%830,158 right 300px Swing by county Legend #00a1c8 Democratic — +>15% #00bdec Democratic — +12.5-15% #09ceff Democratic — +10-12.5% #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% 300px Trend relative to the state by county Legend #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% 300px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold #0671b0 Flip Republican #f48882 Hold Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Colfax (largest city: Raton) Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg) Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos) Luna (largest city: Deming) Sandoval (largest city: Rio Rancho) Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas) By congressional district Barack Obama carried two of the state's three congressional districts, while John McCain just narrowly carried the other congressional district that simultaneously elected a Democrat. District McCain Obama RepresentativeNew Mexico 1 1st39.64%60.07%Heather Wilson (110th Congress)Martin Heinrich (111th Congress)New Mexico 2 2nd49.97%48.64%Steve Pearce (110th Congress)Harry Teague (111th Congress)New Mexico 3 3rd37.79%61.01%Tom Udall (110th Congress)Ben R. Luján (111th Congress) Electors List of 2008 United States presidential electors Officially the voters of New Mexico cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New Mexico is allocated five electors because it has three congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of five electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all five electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm Electoral College 2008-11-01 California Secretary of State dead https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm October 30, 2008 An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and of the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body; instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All five were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:New Mexico Secretary of State's office https://web.archive.org/web/20081129113359/http://www.sos.state.nm.us/pdf/DemocraticPartyElectors08.pdf November 29, 2008 Brian Colon Annadelle Sanchez Tom Buckner Christy French Alvin Warren References New Mexico Category:2008 New Mexico elections Category:United States presidential elections in New Mexico