2016 United States House of Representatives election ratings

none May 2022 2016 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2014 2018 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2018 The 2016 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 8, 2016, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2016 presidential election and the 2016 Senate elections, were also held on this date. Election ratings Latest published ratings for competitive seats Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election. Most election ratings use: "tossup": no advantage "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" "lean": slight advantage "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats. District CPVIIncumbent Previousresult CookNovember 7, 20162016 House Race Ratings for November 7, 2016 http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings House: Race Ratings Cook Political Report November 12, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20161108120110/http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings 8 November 2016 RothenbergNovember 3, 20162016 House Ratings (November 3, 2016) http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house House Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report November 3, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20161112054300/http://rothenberggonzales.com/ratings/house 12 November 2016 SabatoNovember 7, 20162016 House http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-house Sabato's Crystal Ball November 7, 2016 November 7, 2016 RCPOctober 31, 2016Battle for the House 2016 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/house/2016_elections_house_map.html Real Clear Politics October 31, 2016 Daily KosNovember 7, 2016Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2016 http://www.dailykos.com/election-outlook/2016-race-ratings#house Daily Kos Elections November 7, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20170303064307/https://www.dailykos.com/election-outlook/2016-race-ratings 3 March 2017 Winnerhttps://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/house House Election Results: G.O.P. Keeps Control The New York Times November 9, 2016 November 9, 2016 AK AL X R 12 Don Young (R) 151.0 51.0% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Don Young (R) AZ 1 X R 4 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) (retiring)"Senate" Retired to run for senate -47.4 52.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tom O'Halleran (D) AZ 2 X R 3 Martha McSally (R) 150.0 50.0% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R Martha McSally (R) CA 3 X D 3 John Garamendi (D) -47.3 52.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D John Garamendi (D) CA 7 X EVEN Ami Bera (D) -49.6 50.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Ami Bera (D) CA 10 X R 1 Jeff Denham (R) 156.2 56.2% R Tossup Lean R Lean D Flip Lean R Tossup Jeff Denham (R) CA 16 X D 7 Jim Costa (D) -49.3 50.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Jim Costa (D) CA 21 X D 2 David Valadao (R) 157.8 57.8% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R David Valadao (R) CA 24 X D 4 Lois Capps (D) (retiring) -48.1 51.9% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Salud Carbajal (D) CA 25 X R 3 Steve Knight (R) 153.3 53.3% R Tossup Likely R Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Steve Knight (R) CA 48 X R 7 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 164.1 64.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Dana Rohrabacher (R) CA 49 X R 4 Darrell Issa (R) 160.2 60.2% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Darrell Issa (R) CA 52 X D 2 Scott Peters (D) -48.4 51.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Scott Peters (D) CO 3 X R 5 Scott Tipton (R) 158.0 58.0% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Lean R Scott Tipton (R) CO 6 X D 1 Mike Coffman (R) 151.9 51.9% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Mike Coffman (R) FL 2 X R 18 Gwen Graham (D) (retiring) -49.5 50.5% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Neal Dunn (R) FL 7 X R 2 John Mica (R) 163.6 63.6% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Stephanie Murphy (D) FL 10 X D 9 Daniel Webster (R) (switching seats)"Webster" Contested the new 11th and won. 161.5 61.5% R Likely D Flip Safe D Flip Safe D Flip Likely D Flip Safe D Flip Val Demings (D) FL 13 X D 3 David Jolly (R) 175.2 75.2% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Charlie Crist (D) FL 18 X R 3 Patrick Murphy (D) (retiring)"Senate" -40.2 59.8% D Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Brian Mast (R) FL 26 X EVEN Carlos Curbelo (R) 151.5 51.5% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Carlos Curbelo (R) FL 27 X R 1 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 200.0 100.0% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) IL 10 X D 8 Robert Dold (R) 151.3 51.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Brad Schneider (D) IL 12 X EVEN Mike Bost (R) 152.5 52.5% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Bost (R) IL 17 X D 7 Cheri Bustos (D) -44.5 55.5% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Cheri Bustos (D) IN 2 X R 6 Jackie Walorski (R) 158.9 58.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Jackie Walorski (R) IN 9 X R 9 Todd Young (R) (retiring)"Senate" 162.2 62.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Trey Hollingsworth (R) IA 1 X D 5 Rod Blum (R) 151.1 51.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Rod Blum (R) IA 2 X D 4 Dave Loebsack (D) -47.6 52.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Dave Loebsack (D) IA 3 X EVEN David Young (R) 152.8 52.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R David Young (R) KS 3 X R 5 Kevin Yoder (R) 160.0 60.0% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Kevin Yoder (R) ME 2 X D 2 Bruce Poliquin (R) 147.0 47.0% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Bruce Poliquin (R) MD 6 X D 4 John K. Delaney (D) -50.5 49.5% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D John K. Delaney (D) MI 1 X R 5 Dan Benishek (R) (retiring) 152.1 52.1% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Jack Bergman (R) MI 6 X R 1 Fred Upton (R) 155.9 55.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Fred Upton (R) MI 7 X R 3 Tim Walberg (R) 153.5 53.5% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tim Walberg (R) MI 8 X R 2 Mike Bishop (R) 154.6 54.6% R Lean R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Bishop (R) MN 1 X R 1 Tim Walz (D) -45.7 54.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Tim Walz (D) MN 2 X R 2 John Kline (R) (retiring) 156.0 56.0% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Jason Lewis (R) MN 3 X R 2 Erik Paulsen (R) 162.2 62.2% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Erik Paulsen (R) MN 7 X R 6 Collin Peterson (D) -45.7 54.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Collin Peterson (D) MN 8 X D 1 Rick Nolan (D) -51.5 48.5% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Rick Nolan (D) MT AL X R 7 Ryan Zinke (R) 155.4 55.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Ryan Zinke (R) NE 2 X R 4 Brad Ashford (D) -51 49.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Don Bacon (R) NV 3 X EVEN Joe Heck (R) (retiring)"Senate" 160.8 60.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Jacky Rosen (D) NV 4 X D 4 Cresent Hardy (R) 148.5 48.5% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Ruben Kihuen (D) NH 1 X R 1 Frank Guinta (R) 151.7 51.7% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Carol Shea Porter (D) NJ 5 X R 4 Scott Garrett (R) 155.4 55.4% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Josh Gottheimer (D) NY 1 X R 2 Lee Zeldin (R) 154.4 54.4% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Lee Zeldin (R) NY 3 X EVEN Steve Israel (D) (retiring) -45.2 54.8% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Thomas Suozzi (D) NY 19 X D 1 Chris Gibson (R) (retiring) 164.5 64.5% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup John Faso (R) NY 21 X EVEN Elise Stefanik (R) 155.1 55.1% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Elise Stefanik (R) NY 22 X R 3 Richard L. Hanna (R) (retiring) 198.4 98.4% R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Claudia Tenney (R) NY 23 X R 3 Tom Reed (R) 161.7 61.7% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tom Reed (R) NY 24 X D 5 John Katko (R) 159.5 59.5% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Tossup Lean R John Katko (R) NY 25 X D 7 Louise Slaughter (D) -49.8 50.2% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Louise Slaughter (D) NC 6 X R 10 Mark Walker (R) 158.7 58.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Mark Walker (R) NC 8 X R 8 Richard Hudson (R) 164.9 64.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Richard Hudson (R) NC 9 X R 8 Robert Pittenger (R) 193.9 93.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Robert Pittenger (R) NC 13 X R 5 George Holding (R) (switching seats)"Holding" Contested the new 2nd and won. 157.3 57.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ted Budd (R) PA 6 X R 2 Ryan Costello (R) 156.3 56.3% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ryan Costello (R) PA 8 X R 1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) (retiring) 161.9 61.9% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Brian Fitzpatrick (R) PA 16 X R 4 Joe Pitts (R) (retiring) 157.7 57.7% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lloyd Smucker (R) PA 17 X D 4 Matt Cartwright (D) -43.2 56.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Matt Cartwright (D) TX 10 X R 11 Michael McCaul (R) 162.2 62.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Michael McCaul (R) TX 14 X R 12 Randy Weber (R) 161.8 61.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Randy Weber (R) TX 23 X R 3 Will Hurd (R) 149.8 49.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Will Hurd (R) UT 4 X R 16 Mia Love (R) 150.9 50.9% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Likely R Mia Love (R) VA 4 X D 8 Randy Forbes (R) (switching seats)"Forbes" Contested the new 2nd and lost in the primaries. 160.2 60.2% R Likely D Flip Safe D Flip Safe D Flip Likely D Flip Safe D Flip Donald McEachin (D) VA 5 X R 5 Robert Hurt (R) (retiring) 160.9 60.9% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Thomas Garrett Jr. (R) VA 7 X R 8 Dave Brat (R) 160.8 60.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Dave Brat (R) VA 10 X R 2 Barbara Comstock (R) 156.5 56.5% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup Barbara Comstock (R) WA 3 X R 2 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) 161.5 61.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) WA 8 X R 1 Dave Reichert (R) 160.2 60.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Dave Reichert (R) WI 8 X R 2 Reid Ribble (R) (retiring) 165.0 65.0% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Mike Gallagher (R) Overall | | R - 228D - 189 18 tossups | | R - 231D - 194 10 tossups | | R - 234D - 201 | | R - 225D - 190 20 tossups | | R - 225D - 190 20 tossups | | R - 241D - 194 Generic ballot polls The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2016 House of Representatives elections. Polling aggregatesSource of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polledDemocraticRepublican LeadFiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEight Nov 8, 2016 Until Nov 7, 201645.4% 44.2% +1.2%RealClearPoliticsRealClearPolitics Nov 8, 2016 Nov 1–7, 201646.0% 45.4% +0.6% Average45.7%44.8% +0.9% Notes References * House