1948 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes

1948 windstorms in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA August 2019 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes Tinker AFB tornado damage 2.jpg Damage to United States Air Force B29 bombers from the March 20, 1948, tornado March 20 and 25, 1948 2 F3 Several $16 million Grice G. K. Trapp, R. J. Corfidi, S. F. Davies-Jones, R. Buonanno, C. C. Craven, J. P. Droegemeier, K. K. Duchon, C. Houghton, J. V. Prentice, R. A. Romine, G. Schlachter, K. Wagner, K. K. July 1999 The Golden Anniversary Celebration of the First Tornado Forecast Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80 7 1341–1348 American Meteorological Society Boston 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1341:TGACOT>2.0.CO;2 http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/goldenanniversary/symposium/bamsarticle.pdf July 12, 2009 1999BAMS...80.1341G 123670476 https://web.archive.org/web/20090530000341/http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/goldenanniversary/symposium/bamsarticle.pdf May 30, 2009 live (1948) ($US 16 1948 million US) Oklahoma City, Oklahoma The 1948 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes were two tornadoes which struck Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on March 20 and 25, 1948. Both are estimated to have been equivalent to F3 in intensity on the modern Fujita scale of tornado intensity,Grazulis 1993 935 which was not devised until 1971.Grazulis 2001 131 The March 20 tornado was the costliest in Oklahoma history at the time. Michael L. Branick Tornadoes in the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Area Since 1890 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/tornadodata/okc/ National Weather Service Norman, Oklahoma December 22, 2008 July 12, 2009 https://web.archive.org/web/20090630042543/http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/tornadodata/okc/ June 30, 2009 dead On March 25, meteorologists at the base noticed the extreme similarity between the weather conditions of that day and March 20, and later in the day issued a "tornado forecast", which was verified when a tornado struck the base that evening. This was the first official tornado forecast, as well as the first successful tornado forecast, in recorded history. March 20 tornado 1st Tinker Air Base tornado F3 Several $10 million (1948 USD) Weather forecasting was still crude and prone to large errors in the era before weather satellites and computer modeling. Thunderstorms were not even in the forecast for the evening of March 20. However, around 9:30 pm, storms were reported about 20 mi km to the southwest, and at 9:52, a tornado was sighted near Will Rogers Airport 7 mi km away, along with a 92 mph km/h on wind gust, moving northeast towards the base. Col. Robert C. Miller Description of Historical Events Relating to Tornado Forecasting in the Late 1940s and Early 1950s http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/GoldenAnniversary/Historic.html https://web.archive.org/web/19990223210744/http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/GoldenAnniversary/Historic.html dead February 23, 1999 The Unfriendly Sky National Severe Storms Laboratory July 12, 2009 At 10:00, the tornado reached the southwest corner of the base. Illuminated by nearly constant lightning, the tornado was highly visible as it bisected the base, tossing around planes which were parked in the open. The control tower reported a 78 mph km/h on wind gust before the windows shattered, injuring several personnel with flying glass. The tornado dissipated at the northeast corner of the base. The tornado missed most structures on the base, but the damage to expensive military aircraft was substantial. The total damage cost came to around $10 million, or $US 10 1948 million in US United States dollars. This was the most damaging tornado in Oklahoma up to that date. Flash-Tornado Warning! Pat McDermott http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/goldenanniversary/tornadow.html https://web.archive.org/web/19991002103853/http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/GoldenAnniversary/tornadow.html dead October 2, 1999 The Saturday Evening Post July 28, 1951 17–19, 53–57 July 12, 2009 Tornado expert Thomas P. Grazulis stated in June 2025 that the tornado was "near F5" intensity.Grazulis Thomas P. Thomas P. Grazulis ROBERT J. MILLER’S first (by anyone, ever) tornado forecast hit Tinker AFB on 3/25/1948 (OIS-72). 100y from the 3/20/1948 hit. 14 people were killed in Oklahoma (near F5 with gruesome deaths). 20k in Indiana. Next Wednesday: plans for a full color SIGTOR UPDATE 2023-2026. https://x.com/sigtor2019/status/1937881500940468628 𝕏 @sigtor2019 https://archive.today/20250625143513/https://x.com/sigtor2019/status/1937881500940468628 25 June 2025 Danville, Vermont 25 June 2025 live Investigation and tornado forecast In the aftermath of the first tornado, an official inquiry was conducted into the failure to predict the destructive tornado. Air Force investigators concluded that "due to the nature of the storm, it was not forecastable given the present state of the art." They also made recommendations that the meteorological community determine a tornado warning system for the public, as well as a protocol for protecting life and property at military bases. Both of these investigations began almost immediately. In the days following the tornado, Tinker's meteorologists Major Ernest J. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller investigated surface and upper-air weather data from this and past tornado outbreaks, hoping to be able to identify conditions which were favorable for tornadoes. By March 24, they had compiled several possible tornado indicators and decided it would be difficult, but possible, to identify large tornado threat areas in the future, based on the work of Albert K. Showalter fr Albert K. Showalter and J. R. Fulks. On the morning of March 25, base meteorologists noticed that weather charts for the day were strikingly similar to those before the March 20 tornado. Forecasts issued by the Weather Bureau indicated that almost the same conditions would be present in the evening of March 25 as were present on March 20. In the morning, they issued a forecast for "heavy thunderstorms" effective for 5–6 pm that evening. This would allow the base's commander to alert base personnel that they may institute their brand-new tornado precautions. As the day progressed, conditions increasingly favored thunderstorms and began to closely resemble those of March 20. Weather radar images showed a severe squall line had formed to the west, and weather stations to the west reported cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms. In an afternoon meeting, under some pressure from their commanding officer, base meteorologists composed and issued the first official tornado forecast. Although they were aware of the small chance of success, they felt they had no choice, since the conditions were so similar to March 20. Equipment, which could be, was moved to bomb-proof shelters, and base personnel were moved to safer areas. March 25 tornado 2nd Tinker Air Force Base tornado File:Tinker AFB tornado damage 3.jpg Damage to airplanes and cars from the March 25 tornado F3 $6 million (1948 USD) Although the storms were relatively benign up to the point where they reached Tinker, a supercell formed just west of the base, and at around 6 pm, a tornado touched down on the base for the second time in six days.Grazulis 2001 85–88 This second tornado caused $6 million in damage, or $US 6 1948 million in US dollars. However, due to precautions enacted because of the tornado forecast, no injuries were reported, and damage totals could have been much higher. Legacy The tornado prediction proved to be successful, even if its precision was mostly due to chance. Before this point, the Weather Bureau had a policy against issuing tornado warnings, mainly due to fear of panic by the public, and subsequent complacency if forecasts turned out to be false alarms. Due to lives and costs saved, Fawbush and Miller continued their tornado forecasts, which were verified at quite a high rate over the next three years. At first, they kept their forecasts secret. In the spring and summer of 1949, they issued eighteen forecasts for tornadoes within a 100 sqmi sqkm on area, and all eighteen proved successful. In the subsequent years, while not explicitly using the word "tornado", the Weather Bureau used the pair's forecasts to predict "severe local storms". The synoptic pattern which occurred on March 25 later became known as the "Miller type-B" pattern and is recognized as one of the most potent severe weather setups. Maddox Robert A. Crisp Charlie A. August 1999 The Tinker AFB Tornadoes of March 1948 Weather and Forecasting 14 4 492–499 American Meteorological Society 10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0492:TTATOM>2.0.CO;2 1999WtFor..14..492M https://zenodo.org/record/1234643 See also Weather forecasting 1999 Bridge Creek–Moore tornado, another tornado that affected the airbase References 30em Bibliography Grazulis Thomas 1993 Significant Tornadoes 1680–1991: A Chronology and Analysis of Events Environmental Films St. Johnsbury, Vermont 1-879362-03-1 Grazulis Thomas P. Thomas P. Grazulis 2001 The Tornado: Nature's Ultimate Windstorm University of Oklahoma Press Norman, Oklahoma https://books.google.com/books?id=3zEYILW2MJIC&pg=PA85 978-0-8061-3538-0 03-20 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes Tinker 1948-03-20 Tinker Air Force Base Tornadoes, 1948 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes 1948-03-20