2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2014 U.S. House elections May 2022 2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2012 2016 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2016 File:US House 2014 competitive seats.svg Competitive seats highlighted by partyDemocratic seats: #008 Competitive #ccf UncompetitiveRepublican seats: #800 Competitive #fcc Uncompetitive The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2014, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territoriesNot including the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term. were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the second term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 114th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2010 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 2011 as a result of the 2010 elections. Election ratings Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election. Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their names, while incumbents with a caret (^) sought re-election, but were defeated in the primary election. Note that safeness of a district is not necessarily a prediction as to outcome. Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain District CPVIIncumbent Previousresult CookNovember 3, 20142014 House Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings House: Race Ratings Cook Political Report November 3, 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20141106010617/http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings 6 November 2014 RothenbergOctober 29, 2014House Ratings http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house rothenbergpoliticalreport.com Rothenberg Political Report 7 December 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20141103200723/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house 3 November 2014 29 October 2014 SabatoOctober 30, 20142014 House http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2014-house Sabato's Crystal Ball April 10, 2014 April 11, 2014 RCPNovember 2, 2014Battle for the House https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/2014_elections_house_map.html realclearpolitics.com Real Clear Politics 7 December 2023 4 November 2014 Daily KosNovember 4, 2014Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2014 http://www.dailykos.com/election-outlook/2014-race-ratings#house Daily Kos Elections https://web.archive.org/web/20141109180206/https://www.dailykos.com/election-outlook/2014-race-ratings#house 9 November 2014 November 4, 2014 Winner AK AL X R 12 Don Young (R) 63.9% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Don Young (R) AZ 1 X R 4 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 48.8% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Ann Kirkpatrick (D) AZ 2 X R 3 Ron Barber (D) 50.4% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Martha McSally (R) AZ 9 X R 1 Kyrsten Sinema (D) 48.5% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Kyrsten Sinema (D) AR 2 X R 8 Timothy Griffin (R) (retiring)"Griffin" Retired to run for Lieutenant Governor 55.2% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tossup French Hill (R) AR 4 X R 15 Tom Cotton (R) (retiring)"Senate" Retired to run for senate 59.5% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Tossup Lean R Bruce Westerman (R) CA 3 X D 3 John Garamendi (D) 53.7% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D John Garamendi (D) CA 7 X EVEN Ami Bera (D) 51.1% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Ami Bera (D) CA 9 X D 6 Jerry McNerney (D) 54.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Jerry McNerney (D) CA 21 X D 2 David Valadao (R) 59.9% R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R David Valadao (R) CA 24 X D 4 Lois Capps (D) 54.8% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lois Capps (D) CA 26 X D 4 Julia Brownley (D) 51.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Julia Brownley (D) CA 31 X D 5 Gary Miller (R) (retiring) 55.2% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Pete Aguilar (D) CA 36 X R 1 Raul Ruiz (D) 51.4% D Lean D Safe D Lean D Lean D Lean D Raul Ruiz (D) CA 52 X D 2 Scott Peters (D) 50.2% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Scott Peters (D) CO 6 X D 1 Mike Coffman (R) 48.7% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Tilt R Mike Coffman (R) CT 5 X D 3 Elizabeth Esty (D) 51.5% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Elizabeth Esty (D) FL 2 X R 6 Steve Southerland (R) 52.7% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Gwen Graham (D) FL 18 X R 3 Patrick Murphy (D) 50.3% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean D Patrick Murphy (D) FL 26 X R 1 Joe Garcia (D) 53.6% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Carlos Curbelo (R) GA 12 X R 9 John Barrow (D) 53.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Rick Allen (R) HI 1 X D 18 Colleen Hanabusa (D) (retiring)"Senate" 54.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Mark Takai (D) IL 8 X D 8 Tammy Duckworth (D) 54.7% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Tammy Duckworth (D) IL 10 X D 8 Brad Schneider (D) 50.5% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Robert Dold (R) IL 11 X D 8 Bill Foster (D) 58.1% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Bill Foster (D) IL 12 X EVEN Bill Enyart (D) 51.5% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Mike Bost (R) IL 13 X EVEN Rodney Davis (R) 46.6% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Likely R Rodney Davis (R) IL 17 X D 7 Cheri Bustos (D) 53.3% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Cheri Bustos (D) IN 2 X R 6 Jackie Walorski (R) 49.0% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Jackie Walorski (R) IA 1 X D 5 Bruce Braley (D) (retiring)"Senate" 56.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Rod Blum (R) IA 2 X D 4 Dave Loebsack (D) 55.6% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Dave Loebsack (D) IA 3 X EVEN Tom Latham (R) (retiring) 52.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup David Young (R) IA 4 X R 5 Steve King (R) 53.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Steve King (R) KS 2 X R 8 Lynn Jenkins (R) 57.0% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lynn Jenkins (R) KS 3 X R 6 Kevin Yoder (R) 68.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Kevin Yoder (R) ME 2 X D 2 Mike Michaud (D) (retiring)"Governor" Retired to run for Governor 58.1% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Bruce Poliquin (R) MD 6 X D 4 John Delaney (D) 58.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D John Delaney (D) MA 6 X D 4 John F. Tierney (D) (lost renomination) 48.3% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tilt D Seth Moulton (D) MA 9 X D 5 Bill Keating (D) 58.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Bill Keating (D) MI 1 X R 5 Dan Benishek (R) 48.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean RDan Benishek (R) MI 4 X R 5 Dave Camp (R) (retiring) 63.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R John Moolenaar (R) MI 6 X R 1 Fred Upton (R) 54.6% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Fred Upton (R) MI 7 X R 3 Tim Walberg (R) 53.3% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tim Walberg (R) MI 8 X R 2 Mike Rogers (R) (retiring) 58.6% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Mike Bishop (R) MI 11 X R 4 Kerry Bentivolio (R) (lost renomination)"Bentivolio" Ran as a Write-In in the General Electionhttp://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-kerry-bentivolio-write-in-campaign/ Roll Call Kerry Bentivolio to Wage Write-In Campaign Bowman Bridget October 2, 2014 December 1, 2014 November 12, 2014 https://web.archive.org/web/20141112234043/http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-kerry-bentivolio-write-in-campaign/ dead 50.7% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Dave Trott MN 1 X R 1 Tim Walz (D) 57.6% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Tim Walz (D) MN 7 X R 6 Collin Peterson (D) 60.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Collin Peterson (D) MN 8 X D 1 Rick Nolan (D) 54.5% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Rick Nolan (D) MT AL X R 7 Steve Daines (R) (retiring)"Senate" 53.2% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Ryan Zinke (R) NE 2 X R 4 Lee Terry (R) 51.2% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tilt D Flip Brad Ashford (D) NV 3 X EVEN Joe Heck (R) 50.4% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Joe Heck (R) NV 4 X D 4 Steven Horsford (D) 50.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tilt D Cresent Hardy (R) NH 1 X R 1 Carol Shea-Porter (D) 49.7% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Frank Guinta (R) NH 2 X D 3 Ann McLane Kuster (D) 50.2% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Ann McLane Kuster (D) NJ 3 X R 1 Jon Runyan (R) (retiring) 53.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tom MacArthur (R) NJ 5 X R 4 Scott Garrett (R) 55.5% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Scott Garrett (R) NY 1 X R 2 Tim Bishop (D) 52.2% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lee Zeldin (R) NY 4 X D 3 Carolyn McCarthy (D) (retiring) 61.8% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Kathleen Rice (D) NY 11 X R 2 Michael Grimm (R) 52.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Michael Grimm (R) NY 18 X EVEN Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 51.7% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Sean Patrick Maloney (D) NY 19 X D 1 Chris Gibson (R) 53.4% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Chris Gibson (R) NY 21 X EVEN Bill Owens (D) (retiring) 50.2% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Elise Stefanik (R) NY 23 X R 3 Tom Reed (R) 52.1% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tom Reed (R) NY 24 X D 5 Dan Maffei (D) 48.4% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup John Katko (R) NC 7 X R 12 Mike McIntyre (D) (retiring) 50.1% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip David Rouzer (R) ND AL X R 10 Kevin Cramer (R) 54.9% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Kevin Cramer (R) OH 6 X R 8 Bill Johnson (R) 53.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Bill Johnson (R) OH 14 X R 4 David Joyce (R) 54.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R David Joyce (R) PA 6 X R 2 Jim Gerlach (R) (retiring) 57.1% R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Ryan Costello (R) TX 23 X R 3 Pete Gallego (D) 50.3% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Will Hurd (R) UT 4 X R 16 Jim Matheson (D) (retiring) 49.3% D Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Mia Love (R) VA 10 X R 2 Frank Wolf (R) (retiring) 58.8% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Barbara Comstock (R) WA 1 X D 4 Suzan DelBene (D) 53.6% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Suzan DelBene (D) WV 2 X R 11 Shelley Moore Capito (R) (retiring)"Senate" 69.8% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Lean R Alex Mooney (R) WV 3 X R 14 Nick Rahall (D) 53.9% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tilt R Flip Evan Jenkins (R) WI 6 X R 5 Tom Petri (R) (retiring) 62.1% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Glenn Grothman (R) WI 7 X R 2 Sean Duffy (R) 56.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Sean Duffy (R) Overall | | R - 228D - 182 25 tossups | | R - 235D - 189 11 tossups | | R - 243D - 192 | | R - 226D - 179 30 tossups | | R - 227D -190 18 tossups | | R - 247D - 188 Notes References * House