2000s energy crisis

Sixfold rise in oil prices, peaking in 2008 the causes and analysis of the relatively high oil prices of the 2000s a chronology of oil prices during this time World oil market chronology from 2003 Energy crisis September 2020 2000s oil crisis Price of oil (2003-2008).png Medium term crude oil prices Jan. 2003 – Nov. 2008, (not adjusted for inflation) Third oil crisis 2003–2008 350px|thumb|right|Crude oil prices to gas prices thumb|350px|Henry Hub natural gas prices From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under US$25/barrel in 2008 dollars. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008.http://tfc-charts.com/chart/QM/W Crude Oil EmiNY Weekly Commodity Futures Price Chart: NYMEX tfc-charts.com 1 May 2018 live https://web.archive.org/web/20140502013508/http://tfc-charts.com/chart/QM/W 2 May 2014 Commentators attributed these price increases to multiple factors, including Middle East tension, soaring demand from China, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports showing a decline in petroleum reserves,http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-13T231429Z_01_SP327883_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml US Markets-Oil Reuters 27 December 2008 2 May 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20220502002610/http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-13T231429Z_01_SP327883_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml dead http://www.ameinfo.com/90848.html Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year AME 6 July 2006 29 November 2007 https://web.archive.org/web/20071214134806/http://www.ameinfo.com/90848.html 14 December 2007 dead worries over peak oil,http://www.energybulletin.net/ EnergyBulletin.net Peak Oil News Clearinghouse 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081217041327/http://energybulletin.net/ 17 December 2008 live and financial speculation. http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,556519,00.html The Hike in Oil Prices: Speculation – But Not Manipulation 27 December 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20120518065027/http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0%2C1518%2C556519%2C00.html 18 May 2012 For a time, geopolitical events and natural disasters had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such as North Korean missile tests, http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/07/05/oil.price/index.html Missile tension sends oil surging CNN 21 April 2010 live https://web.archive.org/web/20091224130749/http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/07/05/oil.price/index.html 24 December 2009 the 2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon,http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7083015.stm Oil hits $100 barrel BBC News 2 January 2008 31 December 2009 https://web.archive.org/web/20091213053546/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7083015.stm 13 December 2009 live worries over Iranian nuclear plans in 2006,http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4684844.stm Iran nuclear fears fuel oil price BBC News 6 February 2006 31 December 2009 https://web.archive.org/web/20100109062558/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4684844.stm 9 January 2010 live Hurricane Katrina,2017-02-06 We're sorry, that page can't be found. https://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/53572.pdf dead https://web.archive.org/web/20180315134102/https://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/53572.pdf 15 March 2018 1 May 2018 fpc.state.gov and various other factors. http://www.slate.com/id/2181282/ Gas Bubble: Oil is at $100 per barrel. Get used to it. Daniel Gross Slate 5 January 2008 27 December 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20081017221419/http://www.slate.com/id/2181282 17 October 2008 By 2008, such pressures appeared to have an insignificant impact on oil prices given the onset of the global recession.5 May 2009 2 September 2008 http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Oil-Prices-Fall-To-Four-month-Lows-Despite-Production-In-Gulf-of-Mexico-Shut-Due-To-Hurricane-Gustav/Article/200809115091229?lpos=Business_3&lid=ARTICLE_15091229_Oil%2BPrices%2BFall%2BTo%2BFour-month%2BLows%2BDespite%2BProduction%2BIn%2BGulf%2Bof%2BMexico%2BShut%2BDue%2BTo%2BHurricane%2BGustav Oil Prices Fall As Gustav Hits Sky News dead https://web.archive.org/web/20090622042842/http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Oil-Prices-Fall-To-Four-month-Lows-Despite-Production-In-Gulf-of-Mexico-Shut-Due-To-Hurricane-Gustav/Article/200809115091229?lpos=Business_3&lid=ARTICLE_15091229_Oil%2BPrices%2BFall%2BTo%2BFour-month%2BLows%2BDespite%2BProduction%2BIn%2BGulf%2Bof%2BMexico%2BShut%2BDue%2BTo%2BHurricane%2BGustav 22 June 2009 The recession caused demand for energy to shrink in late 2008, with oil prices collapsing from the July 2008 high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-05-09/saudi-arabian-algerian-oil-ministers-see-consumption-increasing-this-year Oil Ministers See Demand Rising, Price May Exceed $85 Bloomberg News 10 May 2010 Robert Tuttle Ola Galal 14 January 2016 live https://web.archive.org/web/20160206233533/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-05-09/saudi-arabian-algerian-oil-ministers-see-consumption-increasing-this-year 6 February 2016 However, it has been disputed that the laws of supply and demand of oil could have been responsible for an almost 80% drop in the oil price within a six-month period.https://thinkprogress.org/leaked-documents-reveal-major-speculators-behind-2008-oil-price-shock-hedge-funds-koch-big-banks-oil-54ff4aeec90d/ Leaked Documents Reveal Major Speculators Behind 2008 Oil Price Shock: Hedge Funds, Koch, Big Banks, Oil Companies 2018-08-25 en-US 21 November 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20201121022256/https://thinkprogress.org/leaked-documents-reveal-major-speculators-behind-2008-oil-price-shock-hedge-funds-koch-big-banks-oil-54ff4aeec90d/ live Oil prices stabilized by August 2009 and generally remained in a broad trading range between $70 and $120 through November 2014,https://www.quandl.com/DOE/RBRTE Europe Brent Crude Oil Spot Price FOB (DOE) Quandl 1 January 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20130327121437/http://www.quandl.com/DOE-US-Department-of-Energy/RBRTE-Europe-Brent-Crude-Oil-Spot-Price-FOB 27 March 2013 before returning to 2003 pre-crisis levels by early 2016, as US production increased dramatically. The United States went on to become the largest oil producer by 2018.https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37053 The United States is now the largest global crude oil producer - Today in Energy U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 6 January 2020 14 August 2021 https://web.archive.org/web/20210814163911/https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37053 live New inflation-adjusted peaks The price of crude oil in 2003 traded in a range between $20–$30/bbl. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotusaw.htm Weekly United States Spot Price FOB Weighted by Estimated Import Volume U.S. Energy Information Administration February 2009 13 February 2009 https://web.archive.org/web/20090701074734/http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotusaw.htm 1 July 2009 dead Between 2003 and July 2008, prices steadily rose, reaching $100/bbl in late 2007, coming close to the previous inflation-adjusted peak set in 1980. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7048600.stm What is driving oil prices so high? BBC 5 November 2007 31 December 2009 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090411220900/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7048600.stm 11 April 2009 does not actually say that 1980 was all-time record, as claimed November 2012 A steep rise in the price of oil in 2008 – also mirrored by other commodities – culminated in an all-time high of $147.27 during trading on 11 July 2008, https://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-07-11-3815204975_x.htm Oil sets new trading record above $147 a barrel USA Today 11 July 2008 Madlen Read 13 February 2009 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090318073542/http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-07-11-3815204975_x.htm 18 March 2009 more than a third above the previous inflation-adjusted high.November 2012 High oil prices and economic weakness contributed to a demand contraction in 2007–2008. In the United States, gasoline consumption declined by 0.4% in 2007, https://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html Oil Demand Is Dropping, but Prices Aren't U.S. News & World Report 4 March 2008 Marianne Lavelle 27 December 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20081012021002/http://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html 12 October 2008 then fell by 0.5% in the first two months of 2008 alone.https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270 Americans Using Less Gasoline NPR 5 March 2008 Frank Langfitt https://web.archive.org/web/20090827053651/http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270 27 August 2009 live 7 May 2009 Record-setting oil prices in the first half of 2008 and economic weakness in the second half of the year prompted a 1.2 Moilbbl m3 on/day contraction in US consumption of petroleum products, representing 5.8% of total US consumption, the largest annual decline since 1980 at the climax of the 1979 energy crisis.http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/archives/feb09.pdf Short-Term Energy Outlook U.S. Energy Information Administration 10 February 2009 1 January 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20090326020349/http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/feb09.pdf 26 March 2009 live Possible causes vertical right Oil Prices Since 1861.svg Oil price chronology-june2007.gif 300 Oil price trend, 1861–2007, both nominal and adjusted to inflation Detailed analysis of changes in oil price from 1970–2007. The graph is based on the nominal, not real, price of oil. Demand World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003–2004. World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030, according to the 2007 U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual report.http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm#Global%20Oil%20Consumption Global Oil Consumption U.S. Energy Information Administration 27 July 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080727120729/http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm 27 July 2008 live In 2007, the EIA expected demand to reach an ultimate high of 118 Moilbbl/d, from 2006's 86 Moilbbl, driven in large part by the transportation sector. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5099400.stm World oil demand 'to rise by 37%' BBC News 20 June 2006 31 December 2009 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090420193710/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5099400.stm 20 April 2009 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html 2007 International Energy Outlook: Petroleum and other liquid fuels U.S. Energy Information Administration May 2007 27 December 2008 http://webarchive.loc.gov/all/20090404160504/http%3A//www%2Eeia%2Edoe%2Egov/oiaf/ieo/oil%2Ehtml 4 April 2009 live A 2008 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that although drops in petroleum demand due to high prices have been observed in developed countries and are expected to continue, a 3.7 percent rise in demand by 2013 is predicted in developing countries. This is projected to cause a net rise in global petroleum demand during that period. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/02/business/02oil.html?ei=5124&en=d92ebb45abddef25&ex=1372651200&adxnnl=1&partner=digg&exprod=digg&adxnnlx=1215090471-nCZUb0Eg4s/EwFnWc0QBBg The New York Times Oil Demand Will Grow, Despite Prices, Report Says 2 July 2008 Clifford Krauss 3 July 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090424040143/http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/02/business/02oil.html?ei=5124&en=d92ebb45abddef25&ex=1372651200&adxnnl=1&partner=digg&exprod=digg&adxnnlx=1215090471-nCZUb0Eg4s%2FEwFnWc0QBBg 24 April 2009 Transportation consumes the largest proportion of energy, and has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for cars and other personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert 18 August 2004 Energy Information Administration Wood John H, Long Gary R, Morehouse David F 27 July 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080804142037/http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html 4 August 2008 dead This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report and 68.9% of the oil used in the United States in 2006.http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_03.html Domestic Demand for Refined Petroleum Products by Sector U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 20 December 2007 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20070929124343/http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_03.html 29 September 2007 Cars and trucks are predicted to cause almost 75% of the increase in oil consumption by India and China between 2001 and 2025.http://www.iags.org/wsj050504.htm Asia's Thirst for Oil 5 May 2004 Wall Street Journal 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081224234040/http://www.iags.org/wsj050504.htm 24 December 2008 live In 2008, auto sales in China were expected to grow by as much as 15–20 percent, resulting in part from economic growth rates of over 10 percent for five years in a row.http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080421/china_auto_show_big_cars.html Gas guzzlers a hit in China, where car sales are booming Associated Press Joe Mcdonald 21 April 2008 27 December 2008 6 October 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20221006193221/https://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080421/china_auto_show_big_cars.html live Demand growth is highest in the developing world,http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html International Petroleum (Oil) Consumption Data U.S. Energy Information Administration 20 December 2007 https://web.archive.org/web/20071212204424/http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html 12 December 2007 live but the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from 17.7 Moilbbl m3 a day to 20.7 Moilbbl m3 a day, an increase of 3 Moilbbl m3 a day. China, by comparison, increased consumption from 3.4 Moilbbl m3 a day to 7 Moilbbl m3 a day, an increase of 3.6 Moilbbl m3 a day, in the same time frame.http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622 BP Statistical Review of Energy – 2008 Beyond Petroleum 2008 27 July 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080727065417/http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622 27 July 2008 dead Per capita, annual consumption is 24.85 oilbbl m3 by people in the US,20.7 Mbpd divided by the population of 304 million times 365 days/year 1.79 oilbbl m3 in China,6.5 Mbpd divided by the population of 1,325 million people times 365 days/year (figures from the CIA Factbook https://web.archive.org/web/20080813072716/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/ch.html 13 August 2008 ) and 0.79 oilbbl m3 in India.2.45 Mbpd divided by the population of 1,136 million people times 365 days/year (figures from the CIA Factbook https://web.archive.org/web/20090513142313/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/in.html 13 May 2009 ) As countries develop, industry, rapid urbanization and higher living standards drive up energy use, most often of oil. Thriving economies such as China and India are quickly becoming large oil consumers.Oil price 'may hit $200 a barrel' https://web.archive.org/web/20090411231928/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm 11 April 2009 , BBC News, 7 May 2008. China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002, doubling from 1996–2006. Although swift continued growth in China is often predicted, others predict that China's export-dominated economy will not continue such growth trends due to wage and price inflation and reduced demand from the US.http://seekingalpha.com/article/83459-china-s-negative-economic-outlook China's Negative Economic Outlook Seeking Alpha Kevin O'Brien Seeking Alpha 2 July 2008 27 July 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080804105758/http://seekingalpha.com/article/83459-china-s-negative-economic-outlook 4 August 2008 live India's oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2005 levels by 2020, rising to 5 Moilbbl/d. http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2005/nf20050825_4692_db016.htm?chan=gb China and India: A Rage for Oil Business Week 25 August 2005 27 July 2008 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20081025180611/http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2005/nf20050825_4692_db016.htm?chan=gb 25 October 2008 Another large factor on petroleum demand has been human population growth. Because world population grew faster than oil production, production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973–1979). Duncan Richard C November 2001 The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge Population & Environment 22 5 503–522 1573-7810 10.1023/A:1010793021451 150522386 http://dieoff.org/page224.htm 27 December 2008 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20090624150658/http://dieoff.org/page224.htm 24 June 2009 subscription The world’s population in 2030 is expected to be double that of 1980. https://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950–2050 U.S. Census Bureau 20 December 2007 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20071215064227/http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html 15 December 2007 Role of fuel subsidies State fuel subsidies shielded consumers in multiple nations from higher market prices, but a number of these subsidies were reduced or removed as the governmental cost rose. In June 2008, AFP reported that: China became the latest Asian nation to curb energy subsidies last week after hiking retail petrol and diesel prices as much as 18 percent... Elsewhere in Asia, Malaysia has hiked fuel prices by 41 percent and Indonesia by around 29 percent, while Taiwan and India have also raised their energy costs.http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2008-06-22/news/28410433_1_oil-prices-oil-demand-growth-cameron-hanover https://web.archive.org/web/20160305144948/http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2008-06-22/news/28410433_1_oil-prices-oil-demand-growth-cameron-hanover dead 5 March 2016 Chinese cut fuel subsidies but demand fears remain AFP 22 June 2008 1 January 2016 In the same month, Reuters reported that: Countries like China and India, along with Gulf nations whose retail oil prices are kept below global prices, contributed 61 percent of the increase in global consumption of crude oil from 2000 to 2006, according to JPMorgan. Other than Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, most Asian nations subsidize domestic fuel prices. The more countries subsidize them, the less likely high oil prices will have any affect in reducing overall demand, forcing governments in weaker financial situations to surrender first and stop their subsidies. That is what happened over the past two weeks. Indonesia, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, and Malaysia have either raised regulated fuel prices or pledged that they will.http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/04/business/rtrcol05.php The hidden costs of fuel subsidies Reuters 10 July 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080710115522/http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/04/business/rtrcol05.php 10 July 2008 live The Economist reported: "Half of the world's population enjoys fuel subsidies. This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world's petrol is sold at less than the market price."http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11453151 Crude measures The Economist 10 July 2008 29 May 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080711164559/http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11453151 11 July 2008 live U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman stated that around 30 Moilbbl/d m3/d of oil consumption (over a third of the global total) was subsidized. Supply Peak oil An important contributor to the price increase was the slowdown in oil supply growth, which has been a general trend since oil production surpassed new discoveries in 1980. The likelihood that global oil production will decline at some point, leading to lower supply, is a long-term fundamental cause of rising prices.http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php Peak Oil Primer - Resilience www.energybulletin.net 1 May 2018 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20130201174938/http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php 1 February 2013 Although there is contention about the exact time at which global production will peak, a majority of industry participants acknowledge that the concept of a production peak is valid.April 2010 However, some commentators argued that global warming awareness and new energy sources would limit demand before the effects of supply could, suggesting that reserve depletion would be a non-issue. "We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking, perhaps because of climate change policies as from production peaking." Peter Davies, Economist for BP World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/world-oil-supplies-are-set-to-run-out-faster-than-expected-warn-scientists-6262621.html The Independent UK 14 June 2007 live https://web.archive.org/web/20160908194714/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/world-oil-supplies-are-set-to-run-out-faster-than-expected-warn-scientists-6262621.html 8 September 2016 A large factor in the lower supply growth of petroleum has been that oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested is in significant decline. Petroleum is a limited resource, and the remaining accessible reserves are consumed more rapidly each year. Remaining reserves are increasingly difficult to extract and therefore more expensive. Eventually, reserves will only be economically feasible to extract at extremely high prices. Even if total oil supply does not decline, increasing numbers of expertsspecifically, need citation to back up claim of increasing numbers April 2010 believe the easily accessible sources of light sweet crude are almost exhausted and in the future the world will depend on more-expensive unconventional oil reserves and heavy crude oil, as well as renewable energy sources. It is thought by a number of people, including energy economists such as Matthew Simmons, that prices could continue to rise indefinitely until a new market equilibrium is reached at which point supply satisfies worldwide demand. Timothy Kailing, in a 2008 Journal of Energy Security article, pointed out the difficulty of increasing production in mature petroleum regions, even with vastly increased investment in exploration and production. By looking at the historical response of production to variation in drilling effort, he claimed that very little increase of production could be attributed to increased drilling. This was due to a tight quantitative relationship of diminishing returns with increasing drilling effort: As drilling effort increased, the energy obtained per active drill rig was reduced according to a severely diminishing power law. This analysis suggested that even an enormous increase of drilling effort was unlikely to lead to significantly increased oil and gas production in a mature petroleum region like the United States. Kailing, Timothy D. December 2008 Can the United States Drill Its Way to Energy Security? Journal of Energy Security http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=166:can-us-drill-its-way-to-energy-security&catid=90:energysecuritydecember08&Itemid=334/ 27 December 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090623035139/http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=166%3Acan-us-drill-its-way-to-energy-security&catid=90%3Aenergysecuritydecember08&Itemid=334%2F 23 June 2009 A prominent example of investment in non-conventional sources is seen in the Canadian oil sands. They are a far less cost-efficient source of heavy, low-grade oil than conventional crude; but when oil trades above $60/bbl, the tar sands become attractive to exploration and production companies. While Canada's oil sands region is estimated to contain as much "heavy" oil as all the world's reserves of "conventional" oil,April 2008 efforts to economically exploit these resources lag behind the increasing demand of recent years.http://www.energybulletin.net/1191.html Canada: Pinning hopes on the tar sand EnergyBulletin.net 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20090106160322/http://www.energybulletin.net/1191.html 6 January 2009 dead Until 2008, CERA (a consulting company wholly owned by energy consultants IHS Energy)http://www.ihs.com/News/Press-Releases/2004/04cera.htm IHS Energy Acquires Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) 1 September 2004 30 November 2007 https://web.archive.org/web/20071224194728/http://www.ihs.com/News/Press-Releases/2004/04cera.htm 24 December 2007 live did not believe this would be such an immediate problem. However, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin, previously known for his quotes that the price of oil would soon return down to "normal", amended the company's position on 7 May 2008 to predict that oil would reach $150 during 2008, due to tightness of supply.https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121010625118671575 Some See Oil At $150 a Barrel This Year Neil King Jr Spencer Swartz 7 May 2008 Wall Street Journal 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20090108204745/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121010625118671575.html 8 January 2009 live This reversal of opinion was significant, as CERA, among other consultancies, provided price projections that were used by multiple official bodies to plan long-term strategy in respect of energy mix and price. Other major energy organisations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), had already been much less optimistic in their assessments for some time. https://www.ft.com/content/3c8940ca-8d46-11dc-a398-0000779fd2ac Financial Times Transcript: Interview with IEA chief economist 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20090619155224/http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c8940ca-8d46-11dc-a398-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 19 June 2009 live Interview with Fatih Birol. In 2008, the IEA drastically accelerated its prediction of production decline for existing oilfields, from 3.7% a year to 6.7% a year, based largely on better accounting methods, including actual research of individual oil field production throughout the world.George Monbiot asks Fatih Birol, chief economist of IEA, when will the oil run out? https://web.archive.org/web/20170523045004/https://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/dec/15/oil-peak-energy-iea 23 May 2017 , The Guardian, Terrorist and insurgent groups have increasingly targeted oil and gas installations, and succeeded in stopping a substantial volume of exports during the 2003–2008 height of the American occupation of Iraq.Simmons Greg https://www.foxnews.com/story/dems-doubt-iraq-progress Dems Doubt Iraq Progress Fox News 7 December 2005 live https://web.archive.org/web/20070113230811/http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,177982,00.html 13 January 2007 2 January 2016 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm Oil price 'may hit $200 a barrel' BBC News 7 May 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090411231928/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm 11 April 2009 Such attacks are sometimes perpetrated by militias in regions where oil wealth has produced few tangible benefits for the local citizenry, as is the case in the Niger Delta. A number of factors have resulted in possible and/or actual concerns about the reduced supply of oil. The post-9/11 war on terror, labor strikes, hurricane threats to oil platforms, fires and terrorist threats at refineries, and other short-lived problems are not solely responsible for the higher prices. Such problems do push prices higher temporarily, but have not historically been fundamental to long-term price increases.July 2008 Investment/speculation demand Investment demand for oil occurs when investors purchase futures contracts to buy a commodity at a set price for future delivery. "Speculators are not buying any actual crude. ... When [the] contracts mature, they either settle them with a cash payment or sell them on to genuine consumers." Several claims have been made implicating financial speculation as a major cause of the price increases. In May 2008 the transport chief for Germany's Social Democrats estimated that 25 percent of the rise to $135 a barrel had nothing to do with underlying supply and demand.Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Germany in call for ban on oil speculation 26 May 2008 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/26/cnoil126.xml The Daily Telegraph London 7 June 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080605182008/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=%2Fmoney%2F2008%2F05%2F26%2Fcnoil126.xml 5 June 2008 dead Testimony was given to a U.S. Senate committee in May indicating that "demand shock" from "institutional investors" had increased by 848 Moilbbl m3 over the previous five years, almost as much as the increased physical demand from China (920 Moilbbl m3).Michael Masters Written Testimony http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf United States Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs 20 May 2008 28 May 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080528200858/http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf 28 May 2008 live The influence of institutional investors, such as sovereign wealth funds, was also discussed in June 2008, when Lehman Brothers suggested that price increases were related to increases in exposure to commodities by such investors. It claimed that "for every $100 million in new inflows, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, increased by 1.6%."Chazan Guy Neil King Jr. Is Oil the Next 'Bubble' to Pop? 4 June 2008 https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121251666620041937 The Wall Street Journal 17 June 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20160308041259/http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121251666620041937 8 March 2016 Also in May 2008, an article in The Economist pointed out that oil futures transactions on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), nearly mirrored the price of oil increases for a several-year period; however, the article conceded that the increased investment might be following rising prices, rather than causing them, and that the nickel market value had halved in the year between May 2007 and May 2008 despite significant speculative interest. It also reminded readers that "Investment can flood into the oil market without driving up prices because speculators are not buying any actual crude... no oil is hoarded or somehow kept off the market," and that prices of some commodities which are not openly traded have actually risen faster than oil prices. Double, double, oil and trouble 29 May 2008 http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=381586&story_id=11453090 The Economist 17 June 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080612141929/http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=381586&story_id=11453090 12 June 2008 live In June 2008, OPEC's Secretary General Abdallah Salem el-Badri stated that current world consumption of oil at 87 million bpd was far exceeded by the "paper market" for oil, which equaled about 1.36 billion bpd, or more than 15 times the actual market demand. OPEC chief appeals for calm over oil 10 June 2008 Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWLA462520080610?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 10 June 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20090109092853/http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWLA462520080610?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 9 January 2009 An interagency task force on commodities markets was formed in the U.S. government to investigate the claims of speculators' influence on the petroleum market. The task force concluded in July 2008 that "market fundamentals" such as supply and demand provided the best explanations for oil price increases, and that increased speculation was not statistically correlated with the increases. The report also noted that increased prices with an elastic supply would cause increases in petroleum inventories. As inventories actually declined, the task force concluded that market pressures were most likely to blame. Other commodities that were not subject to market speculation (such as coal, steel, and onions) saw similar price increases over the same time period.Interagency Task Force on Commodity Markets http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf Interim Report on Crude Oil Washington DC July 2008 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081211130958/http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/%40newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf 11 December 2008 dead In June 2008 U.S. energy secretary Samuel Bodman said that insufficient oil production, not financial speculation, was driving rising crude prices. He said that oil production had not kept pace with growing demand. "In the absence of any additional crude supply, for every 1% of crude demand, we will expect a 20% increase in price in order to balance the market," Bodman said.http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/06/21/news/Saudi-Oil-Summit.php Bodman: Insufficient oil production behind prices International Herald Tribune 27 December 2008 This contradicted earlier statements by Iranian OPEC governor Mohammad-Ali Khatibi indicating that the oil market was saturated and that an increase in production announced by Saudi Arabia was "wrong".July 2021 In September 2008, Masters Capital Management released a study of the oil market, concluding that speculation did significantly impact the price. The study stated that over $60 billion was invested in oil during the first six months of 2008, helping drive the price per barrel from $95 to $147, and that by the beginning of September, $39 billion had been withdrawn by speculators, causing prices to fall. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2008-sep-11-fi-oilspec11-story.html Study links oil prices to speculation Associated Press H. Josef Hebert 10 September 2008 16 December 2015 live http://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/20170115224149/http://articles.latimes.com/2008/sep/11/business/fi-oilspec11 15 January 2017 Effects Causes of the Great Recession There is debate over what the effects of the 2000s energy crisis will be over the long term. Some speculated that an oil-price spike could create a recession comparable to those that followed the 1973 and 1979 energy crises or a potentially worse situation such as a global oil crash. Increased petroleum prices are reflected in a vast number of products derived from petroleum, as well as those transported using petroleum fuels.Gas costs are reflected in nearly everything you buy, The Dallas Morning News, 15 June 2008. Political scientist George Friedman has postulated that if high prices for oil and food persist, they will define the fourth distinct geopolitical regime since the end of World War II, the previous three being the Cold War, the 1989–2001 period in which economic globalization was primary, and the post-9/11 "war on terror".http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/geopolitics_130_oil The geopolitics of $130 oil Stratfor 11 July 2008 Friedman George 27 May 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080529224146/http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/geopolitics_130_oil 29 May 2008 live In addition to high oil prices, from year 2000 volatility in the price of oil has increased notably and this volatility has been suggested to be a cause of the 2008 financial crisis.http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50923 Was Volatility in the Price of Oil a Cause of the 2008 Financial Crisis? - Resilience www.energybulletin.net 1 May 2018 live https://web.archive.org/web/20110430000052/http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50923 30 April 2011 The perceived increase in oil price differs internationally according to currency market fluctuations and the purchasing power of currencies. For example, excluding changes in relative purchasing power of various currencies, from 1 January 2002 to 1 January 2008:To see table and sources : Talk:Oil price increases since 2003#World view In US$, oil price rose from $20.37 to nearly $100, about 4.91 times as expensive; In the same period, the Taiwanese dollar gained value over the U.S. dollar to make oil in Taiwan 4.53 times as expensive; In the same period, the Japanese Yen gained value over the U.S. dollar to make oil in Japan 4.10 times as expensive; In the same period, the Euro gained value over the U.S. dollar to make oil in the Eurozone 2.94 times as expensive. On average, oil prices roughly quadrupled for these areas, triggering widespread protest activities.http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-05-13-2421632551_x.htm High gasoline prices spawning songs, signs, symbolic acts 13 May 2008 Associated Press 2 January 2016 A similar price surge for petroleum-based fertilizers contributed to the 2007–08 world food price crisis and further unrest.Reguly Eric 12 April 2008 How the cupboard went bare https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/how-the-cupboards-went-bare/article17983701/ The Globe and Mail In 2008, a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States, and that record energy prices would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121392646391690835?mod=googlenews_wsj Prices Curtail U.S. Gasoline Use Wall Street Journal 20 June 2008 A4 Ana Campoy live https://web.archive.org/web/20180501150307/https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB121392646391690835?mod=googlenews_wsj 1 May 2018 According to the report, in April gas consumption had been lower than a year before for the sixth straight month, suggesting 2008 would be the first year U.S. gasoline usage declined in 17 years. The total miles driven in the U.S. began declining in 2006. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business Driving Less, Americans Finally React to Sting of Gas Prices, a Study Says New York Times 19 June 2008 Clifford Krauss live https://web.archive.org/web/20180501234157/https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business 1 May 2018 In the United States, oil prices contributed to inflation averaging 3.3% in 2005–2006, significantly above the average of 2.5% in the preceding 10-year period.http://www.miseryindex.us/iRbyyear.asp?StartYear=1995&EndYear=2006 The United States Inflation Rate By Year Miseryindex.us 24 February 2006 6 January 2012 June 2024 InternetArchiveBot yes As a result, during this period the Federal Reserve steadily raised interest rates to curb inflation. High oil prices typically affect less-affluent countries first, particularly the developing world with less discretionary income. There are fewer vehicles per capita, and oil is often used for electricity generation as well as private transport. The World Bank has looked more deeply at the effect of oil prices in the developing countries. One analysis found that in South Africa a 125 percent increase in the price of crude oil and refined petroleum reduces employment and GDP by approximately 2 percent, and reduces household consumption by approximately 7 percent, affecting mainly the poor. http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469382&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000158349_20070918095351 Economy-wide and distributional impacts of an oil price shock on the South African economy https://web.archive.org/web/20080609232726/http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSitePK=469382&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000158349_20070918095351 9 June 2008 World Bank WPS 4354 18 September 2007 OPEC's annual oil export revenue surged to a new record in 2008, estimated around US$800 billion.http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=OPEC OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet U.S. Energy Information Administration 31 March 2015 16 December 2015 live https://web.archive.org/web/20151222161556/http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=OPEC 22 December 2015 Forecasted prices and trends According to informed observers, OPEC, meeting in early December 2007, seemed to desire a high but stable price that would deliver substantial needed income to the oil-producing states, but avoid prices so high that they would negatively impact the economies of the oil-consuming nations. A range of US$70–80 per barrel was suggested by some analysts to be OPEC's goal. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/business/worldbusiness/06opec.html OPEC Finds Price Range to Live With 8 May 2008 Mouawad Jad 6 December 2007 The New York Times live https://web.archive.org/web/20150605041221/http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/business/worldbusiness/06opec.html 5 June 2015 In November 2008, as prices fell below $60 a barrel, the IEA warned that falling prices could lead to both a lack of investment in new sources of oil and a fall in production of more-expensive unconventional reserves such as the oil sands of Canada. The IEA's chief economist warned, "Oil supplies in the future will come more and more from smaller and more-difficult fields," meaning that future production requires more investment every year. A lack of new investment in such projects, which had already been observed, could eventually cause new and more-severe supply issues than had been experienced in the early 2000s according to the IEA. Because the sharpest production declines had been seen in developed countries, the IEA warned that the greatest growth in production was expected to come from smaller projects in OPEC states, raising their world production share from 44% in 2008 to a projected 51% in 2030. The IEA also pointed out that demand from the developed world may have also peaked, so that future demand growth was likely to come from developing nations such as China, contributing 43%, and India and the Middle East, each about 20%.IEA warns of new oil supply crunch (Subscription Required). By Carola Hoyos, Ed Crooks, and Javier Blas. Financial Times. Published 12 November 2008. End of the crisis By the beginning of September 2008, prices had fallen to $110. OPEC Secretary General El-Badri said that the organization intended to cut output by about 500000 oilbbl m3 a day, which he saw as correcting a "huge oversupply" due to declining economies and a stronger U.S. dollar.Crude Oil Rises After OPEC Agrees to Trim Excess Production. By Margot Habiby and Alexander Kwiatkowski. Bloomberg L.P. Published 10 September 2008. On 10 September, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2009 demand forecast by 140000 oilbbl m3 to 87.6 Moilbbl m3 a day. As countries throughout the world entered an economic recession in the third quarter of 2008 and the global banking system came under severe strain, oil prices continued to slide. In November and December, global demand growth fell, and U.S. oil demand fell an estimated 10% overall from early October to early November 2008 (accompanying a significant drop in auto sales).Well Prepared https://web.archive.org/web/20081109045746/http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12564013 9 November 2008 . The Economist. Published 6 November 2008. In their December meeting, OPEC members agreed to reduce their production by 2.2 Moilbbl m3 per day, and said their resolution to reduce production in October had an 85% compliance rate.https://archive.today/20090201181823/http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/12/18/opec-oil-cut-markets-commodities-cx_po_1218markets20.html OPEC Cut Has Little Zing. By Parmy Olson. Forbes.com Published 18 December 2008. Petroleum prices fell below $35 in February 2009, but by May 2009 had risen back to mid-November 2008 levels around $55. The global economic downturn left oil-storage facilities with more oil than in any year since 1990, when Iraq's invasion of Kuwait upset the market.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-jump-to-new-high-apf-15149868.html?.v=10 Oil prices jump to high for the year Dirk Lammers Yahoo! Finance 6 May 2009 7 May 2009 https://web.archive.org/web/20090509193321/http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-jump-to-new-high-apf-15149868.html?.v=10 9 May 2009 dead In early 2011, crude oil rebounded above US$100/bbl due to the Arab Spring protests in the Middle East and North Africa, including the 2011 Egyptian revolution, the 2011 Libyan civil war, and steadily tightening international sanctions against Iran.Assis Claudia Lesova Polya Oil futures extend gains amid unrest MarketWatch 23 February 2011 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-extend-gains-amid-unrest-2011-02-23 30 January 2016 live https://web.archive.org/web/20160421110646/http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-extend-gains-amid-unrest-2011-02-23 21 April 2016 The oil price fluctuated around $100 through early 2014. By 2014–2015, the world oil market was again steadily oversupplied, led by an unexpected near-doubling in U.S. oil production from 2008 levels due to substantial improvements in shale "fracking" technology.U.S. Oil Prices Fall Below $80 a Barrel Clifford Krassnov 3 November 2014 13 December 2014 https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/business/energy-environment/us-oil-prices-fall-below-80-a-barrel.html The New York Times live https://web.archive.org/web/20141216205651/http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/business/energy-environment/us-oil-prices-fall-below-80-a-barrel.html 16 December 2014https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-04/opec-maintains-crude-production-as-group-defers-output-target-ihryzilb OPEC Won't Cut Production to Stop Oil's Slump Bloomberg News 4 December 2015 live https://web.archive.org/web/20170328111428/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-04/opec-maintains-crude-production-as-group-defers-output-target-ihryzilb 28 March 2017 By January 2016, the OPEC Reference Basket fell to US$22.48/bbl – less than one-sixth of its record from July 2008 ($140.73), and back below the April 2003 starting point ($23.27) of its historic run-up.http://www.opec.org/basket/basketDayArchives.xml OPEC Basket Daily Archives OPEC 21 January 2016 live https://web.archive.org/web/20160121231540/http://www.opec.org/basket/basketDayArchives.xml 21 January 2016 OPEC production was poised to rise further with the lifting of Iranian sanctions, at a time when markets already appeared to be oversupplied by at least 2 million barrels per day.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-02/iran-says-post-sanctions-crude-output-boost-won-t-hurt-prices Iran Says Post-Sanctions Crude Output Boost Won't Hurt Prices Hashem Kalantari Mohammed Sergie Bloomberg News 2 January 2016 16 January 2016 live https://web.archive.org/web/20160115230602/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-02/iran-says-post-sanctions-crude-output-boost-won-t-hurt-prices 15 January 2016 Possible mitigations Mitigation of peak oil Attempts to mitigate the impacts of oil price increases include: Increasing the supply of petroleum Finding substitutes for petroleum Decreasing the demand for petroleum Attempting to reduce the impact of rising prices on petroleum consumers Better urban planning with more emphasis on bike lanes, public transit, and high dense residential zoning. In mainstream economic theory, a free market rations an increasingly scarce commodity by increasing its price. A higher price should stimulate producers to produce more, and consumers to consume less, while possibly shifting to substitutes. The first three mitigation strategies in the above list are, therefore, in keeping with mainstream economic theory, as government policies can affect the supply and demand for petroleum as well as the availability of substitutes. In contrast, the last type of strategy in the list (attempting to shield consumers from rising prices) would seem to work against classical economic theory, by encouraging consumers to overconsume the scarce quantity, thus making it even scarcer. To avoid creating outright shortages, attempts at price control may require some sort of rationing scheme. Alternative propulsion Alternative fuels Alternative fuel vehicle Biofuel Economists say that the substitution effect will spur demand for alternate fossil fuels, such as coal or liquefied natural gas and for renewable energy, such as solar power, wind power, and advanced biofuels. For example, China and India are currently heavily investing in natural gas and coal liquefaction facilities. Nigeria is working on burning natural gas to produce electricity instead of simply flaring the gas, where all non-emergency gas flaring will be forbidden after 2008.http://www.tribune.com.ng/20062006/eog.html NIGERIAN TRIBUNE - Energy, Oil and Gas 2006-08-21 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20061008194654/http://www.tribune.com.ng/20062006/eog.html 8 October 2006http://www.climatelaw.org/media/gas.flaring/report/section5 Climate Justice: 5. Flares out by 2008? 2006-08-21 live https://web.archive.org/web/20070211105203/http://www.climatelaw.org/media/gas.flaring/report/section5 11 February 2007 Outside the U.S., more than 50% of oil is consumed for stationary, non-transportation purposes such as electricity production where it is relatively easy to substitute natural gas for oil.http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm Demand Energy Information Administration doe.gov dead https://web.archive.org/web/20080727120729/http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm 27 July 2008 Oil companies including the supermajors have begun to fund research into alternative fuel. BP has invested half a billion dollars for research over the next several years. The motivations behind such moves are to acquire the patent rights as well as understanding the technology so vertical integration of the future industry could be achieved. Electric propulsion March 2026 The rise in oil prices caused renewed interest in electric cars, with several new models hitting the market, both hybrid and purely electric. The most successful among the former being the Toyota Prius and among the latter the cars of companies like Tesla. Several countries also incentivized the use of electric cars through tax-breaks or subsidies or by building charging stations. High speed rail March 2026 In a similar vein as the original TGV that was switched from gas turbine to electric propulsion after the 1973 oil crisis, several countries have renewed and increased their efforts for electric propulsion in their rail systems, specifically high-speed rail. In the time since 2003, the global High speed rail network almost doubled and there are plans globally that amount to the network being doubled again within the next ten to twenty years, based on current constructions. China in particular went from having no high-speed rail whatsoever in 2003 to having the longest network in the world in 2015. Bioplastics and bioasphalt Bioplastic Another major factor in petroleum demand is the widespread use of petroleum products such as plastic. These could be partially replaced by bioplastics, which are derived from renewable plant feedstocks such as vegetable oil, cornstarch, pea starch,http://cordis.europa.eu/search/index.cfm?fuseaction=proj.document&CFTOKEN=19120617&PJ_RCN=7901178&CFID=6808047 Development of a pea starch film with trigger biodegradation properties for agricultural applications europa.eu 1 May 2018 live https://web.archive.org/web/20131224130423/http://cordis.europa.eu/search/index.cfm?fuseaction=proj.document&CFTOKEN=19120617&PJ_RCN=7901178&CFID=6808047 24 December 2013 or microbiota. Chua H. Yu P. H. F. Ma C. K. Accumulation of Biopolymers in Activated Sludge Biomass 10.1385/ABAB:78:1-3:389 Applied Biochemistry and Biotechnology 78 1–3 389–400 1999 15304709 189905491 They are used either as a direct replacement for traditional plastics or as blends with traditional plastics. The most common end use market is for packaging materials. Japan has also been a pioneer in bioplastics, incorporating them into electronics and automobiles. Bioasphalt can also be used as a replacement of petroleum asphalt. United States Strategic Fuel Reserve The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve could, on its own, supply current U.S. demand for about a month in the event of an emergency, unless it were also destroyed or inaccessible in the emergency. This could potentially be the case if a major storm were to hit the Gulf of Mexico, where the reserve is located. While total consumption has increased,http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec11_21.pdf Demand Energy Information Administration 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20090103041426/http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec11_21.pdf 3 January 2009 live the western economies are less reliant on oil than they were twenty-five years ago, due both to substantial growth in productivity and the growth of sectors of the economy with little oil dependence such as finance and banking, retail, etc. The decline of heavy industry and manufacturing in most developed countries has reduced the amount of oil per unit GDP; however, since these items are imported anyway, there is less change in the oil dependence of industrialized countries than the direct consumption statistics indicate. Fuel taxes Fuel tax One recourse used and discussed in the past to avoid the negative impacts of oil shocks in the a number of developed countries which have high fuel taxes has been to temporarily or permanently suspend these taxes as fuel costs rise. France, Italy, and the Netherlands lowered taxes in 2000 in response to protests over high prices, but other European nations resisted this option because public service finance is partly based on energy taxes. http://www.iht.com/articles/2000/09/12/belg.2.t.php Amid Protests, Europe's Leaders Resist Oil-Tax Cut Barry James International Herald Tribune 12 September 2000 27 December 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20080822060336/http://www.iht.com/articles/2000/09/12/belg.2.t.php 22 August 2008 The issue came up again in 2004, when oil reached $40 a barrel causing a meeting of 25 EU finance ministers to lower economic growth forecasts for that year. Because of budget deficits in several countries, they decided to pressure OPEC to lower prices instead of lowering taxes. http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/06/03/euoil_ed3_.php EU states to avoid unilateral oil tax cuts Paul Meller International Herald Tribune 3 June 2004 27 December 2008 live https://web.archive.org/web/20080611121839/http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/06/03/euoil_ed3_.php 11 June 2008 In 2007, European truckers, farmers, and fishermen again raised concerns over record oil prices cutting into their earnings, hoping to have taxes lowered. In the United Kingdom, where fuel taxes were raised in October and were scheduled to rise again in April 2008, there was talk of protests and roadblocks if the tax issue was not addressed.http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/09/business/fuel.php European politicians wrestle with high gasoline prices James Kanter International Herald Tribune 9 November 2007 27 December 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20081206014635/http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/09/business/fuel.php 6 December 2008 live On 1 April 2008, a 25 yen per liter fuel tax in Japan was allowed to lapse temporarily. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23468940-2703,00.html Japanese motorists reap fuel windfall Peter Alford The Australian 2 April 2008 27 December 2008 dead https://web.archive.org/web/20090622115441/http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23468940-2703,00.html 22 June 2009 This method of softening price shocks is even less viable to countries with much lower gas taxes, such as the United States. Locally decreasing fuel tax can decrease fuel prices, but globally prices are set by supply and demand, and therefore fuel tax decreases may have no effect on fuel prices, and fuel tax increases might actually decrease fuel prices by reducing demand.Why Are Gasoline Prices High (And What Can Be Done About It)? https://web.archive.org/web/20120702151945/http://www.american.com/archive/2012/march/why-are-gasoline-prices-high-and-what-can-be-done-about-it 2 July 2012 But this depends on the price elasticity of demand for fuel which is -0.09 to -0.31, meaning that fuel is a relatively inelastic commodity, i.e. increasing or decreasing prices have overall only a small effect on demand and therefore price change.Tomas Havranek Zuzana Irsova Karel Janda Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought Energy Economics 34 January 2012 201–207 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.09.003 2012EneEc..34..201H 55215422 http://escholarship.org/uc/item/0m94j50t 11104/0218115 free Demand management Transportation demand management has the potential to be an effective policy response to fuel shortagesGueret, Thomas Travel Demand Management Insights https://web.archive.org/web/20080627125143/http://www.iea.org/textbase/work/2005/oil_demand/Oilintransportwkshp/pdffiles-day2/gueret.pdf 27 June 2008 IEA conference 2005 or price increases and has a greater probability of long term benefits than other mitigation options.Litman, Todd "Appropriate Response to Rising Fuel Prices" https://web.archive.org/web/20080627125143/http://www.vtpi.org/fuelprice.pdf 27 June 2008 Victoria Transport Policy Institute There are major differences in energy consumption for private transport between cities; an average U.S. urban dweller uses 24 times more energy annually for private transport as a Chinese urban resident. These differences cannot be explained by wealth alone but are closely linked to the rates of walking, cycling, and public transport use and to enduring features of the city including urban density and urban design.Kenworthy, J R Transport Energy Use and Greenhouse Emissions in Urban Passenger Transport Systems : A Study of 84 Global Cities https://web.archive.org/web/20080909205842/http://cst.uwinnipeg.ca/documents/Transport_Greenhouse.pdf 9 September 2008 Murdoch University For individuals, remote work provides alternatives to daily commuting and long-distance air travel for business. Technologies such as videoconferencing, e-mail, and corporate wikis, continue to improve. As the cost of moving human workers continues to rise, while the cost of moving information electronically continues to fall, presumably market forces should cause more people to substitute virtual travel for physical travel. Matthew Simmons explicitly calls for "liberating the workforce" by changing the corporate mindset from paying people to show up physically to work every day, to paying them instead for the work they do, from any location.http://www.energybulletin.net/node/17555 The maturation of Matt Simmons, energy-industry investment banker and peak oil guru energybulletin.net Lundberg Jan https://web.archive.org/web/20080411035026/http://www.energybulletin.net/17555.html 11 April 2008 dead This would allow more information workers to work from home either part-time or full-time, or from satellite offices or Internet cafes near to where they live, freeing them from long daily commutes to central offices. However, even full adoption of remote work by all eligible workers might only decrease energy consumption by about 1% (with present energy savings estimated at 0.01–0.04%). By comparison, a 20% increase in automobile fuel economy would save 5.4%.Telework Adoption and Energy Use in Building and Transport Sectors in the United States and Japan Journal of Infrastructure Systems 11 21–30 Matthews H. Scott 17526089 10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2005)11:1(21) 2005 Political action against market speculation The price rises of mid-2008 led to a variety of proposals to change the rules governing energy markets and energy futures markets, in order to prevent rises due to market speculation. On 26 July 2008, the United States House of Representatives passed the Energy Markets Emergency Act of 2008 (H.R. 6377),Energy Markets Emergency Act of 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080908030846/http://www.opencongress.org/bill/110-h6377/show 8 September 2008 , Opencongress.org which directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) "to utilize all its authority, including its emergency powers, to curb immediately the role of excessive speculation in any contract market within the jurisdiction and control of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, on or through which energy futures or swaps are traded, and to eliminate excessive speculation, price distortion, sudden or unreasonable fluctuations or unwarranted changes in prices, or other unlawful activity causing major market disturbances that prevent the market from accurately reflecting the forces of supply and demand for energy commodities." See also 2000s commodities boom 2020s commodities boom 1970s commodities boom Global energy crisis (2021–2023) 1970s energy crisis Notes 30em External links U.S. DOE EIA energy chronology and analysis Oil Price History and Analysis collapsed Category:2000s in economic history Category:History of the petroleum industry Category:Economic bubbles Category:Peak oil Category:Petroleum economics Category:Presidency of Barack Obama Category:Presidency of George W. Bush Category:Great Recession Category:Economic history of the Iraq War Category:Energy crises Category:Global economic crises