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2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary
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2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary Georgia (U.S. state) presidential no Georgia Republican primary, 2012 2012 2020 Georgia Republican primary 2020 2016 03 01 File:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg 150x150px Donald Trump 283681 New York 502,994 38.81% 42 File:Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio C60E3B Florida 316,836 24.45% 16 File:Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz d4aa00 Texas 305,847 23.60% 18 File:Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg Ben Carson 99CCFF Virginia 80,723 6.23% 0 File:John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg John Kasich 00B487 Ohio 72,508 5.59% 0 x275px County results x275px Congressional district results #283681 Donald Trump#9ea8e1 30–40%#7786d5 40–50%#5063c9 50–60%#3649af 60–70%#C60E3B Marco Rubio#f788a3 30-40% #f3587e 40–50% AR MA 76 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
The 2016 Georgia Republican presidential primary was held on Tuesday March 1, as part of that election cycle's Super Tuesday. It took place ahead of the presidential election that November, and the state's Democratic primary was held on the same day.
Donald Trump won the primary, with 38.8% of all votes cast. Marco Rubio came in second, with 24.5% of the vote, and Ted Cruz came in third, with 23.6% of the vote. Of Georgia's 76 bound delegates, Trump, Rubio, and Cruz took home 42, 16, and 18, respectively.
Evangelicals were a key voting bloc for Republican candidates in the primary,Lipka Michael A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/25/a-closer-look-at-religion-in-the-super-tuesday-states/ 2022-06-11 Pew Research Center en-US and Donald Trump won them handily.
State of the campaign
Leading up to Super Tuesday, Trump was already the front-runner, thanks in part to his commanding victory in the South Carolina primary. Despite this, Trump still needed many more delegates to clinch the nomination,https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/23/politics/republican-delegate-math/index.html Republican Party math: Can Donald Trump be beat? Kopan Tal 2016-02-23 CNN 2018-09-10 and the large number of delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday made that day's contests especially important. Politico's Kyle Cheney noted that "Super Tuesday could cripple every Republican presidential candidate not named Donald Trump," while also observing that Trump would almost certainly remain ahead of all his Republican opponents after the day's primaries and caucuses.
Georgia's 76 delegates were the second-most of any state that held a Republican primary or caucus on Super Tuesday in 2016. This may have influenced Trump to hold a rally in Valdosta the day before Georgia's primary.https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/29/donald-trump-georgia-rally-valdosta/81129964/ Black students ejected from Trump rally in Ga. Jacobs Jennifer 2016-02-29 USA TODAY 2018-09-10 en Because Georgia requires candidates to reach a 20% threshold to receive any of its delegates, this was seen as potentially problematic for Cruz and Rubio, both of whom had been polling around that threshold in Georgia at the time.https://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/super-tuesday-states-219886 Breaking down the GOP's Super Tuesday map Cheney Kyle 2016-02-28 POLITICO 2018-09-10 en Nevertheless, there was speculation before Super Tuesday that Rubio would do better in Georgia's primary than in that day's other primaries.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/ https://web.archive.org/web/20160302094128/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/super-tuesday-preview-republican-presidential-election-2016/ dead March 2, 2016 Super Guide to Super Tuesday — Republican Edition Enten Harry 2016-02-29 FiveThirtyEight 2018-09-10 en-US
Delegate allocation
76 delegates were at stake in the Georgia Republican primary. Of these, 10 were at-large delegates, 42 were district delegates who each represented one of the state's 14 congressional districts, three were Republican Party leaders, and 21 were bonus delegates. The 42 delegates corresponding to Georgia congressional districts were all bound, whereas the remaining 34 were unbound. The delegates were awarded according to a winner-take-most system. The winner of each congressional district in the state received all three of that district's delegates if they received a majority of the vote in the district.
Polling
Aggregate polls
+Source of poll
aggregationDates
administeredDates
updatedMarco RubioRepublicanDonald TrumpRepublicanTed CruzRepublicanMarginRealClearPoliticsRealClearPoliticsuntil March 1, 2016March 1, 201622.4%36.2%22.2%20.0Trump +14.4FiveThirtyEightFiveThirtyEightuntil March 1, 2016March 1, 201622.3%38.5%21.0%23.0Trump +16.2
Polls conducted shortly before the Georgia primary gave Trump a double-digit lead over his opponents in the state.https://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11143702/trump-wins-georgia-primary-super-tuesday-2016 Donald Trump wins Georgia Republican primary Lee Timothy B. 2016-03-01 Vox 2018-09-10 For instance, a poll conducted on February 28 by WSB-TV and Landmark Communications gave Trump a 19-point lead over his closest rival, Marco Rubio.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_republican_presidential_primary-5471.html Georgia Republican Presidential Primary RealClearPolitics 2018-09-10 A CBS News poll before the primary similarly found that Georgia Republicans "overwhelmingly" perceived Trump as being on the side of ordinary people, rather than wealthy donors, while they perceived Rubio in the opposite light.https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-leads-virginia-georgia-ted-cruz-hanging-on-texas-super-tuesday/ Poll: Donald Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia; Ted Cruz hanging on in Texas 2016-02-28 CBS News 2018-09-10 en
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOtherPrimary resultsPrimary resultsMarch 1, 2016Donald Trump38.81%Marco Rubio24.45%Ted Cruz23.60%Ben Carson 6.23%, John Kasich 5.69%, Jeb Bush 0.69%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Mike Huckabee 0.20%, Chris Christie 0.11%, Carly Fiorina 0.09%, Rick Santorum 0.04%, Lindsey Graham 0.03%, George Pataki 0.02%,SurveyMonkeyTrump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday https://www.surveymonkey.com/blog/2016/02/29/trumps-lead-looks-solid-in-run-up-to-super-tuesday/ 1 March 2016 SurveyMonkey March 12, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160312144610/https://www.surveymonkey.com/blog/2016/02/29/trumps-lead-looks-solid-in-run-up-to-super-tuesday/ dead
Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1171February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump39%Ted Cruz
21%Marco Rubio
20%Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Undecided 6%Landmark/RosettaStonePOLL: Trump, Clinton widen leads ahead of Super Tuesday http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/poll-trump-widens-republican-lead-ahead-super-tues/nqZ49/ 1 March 2016 Landmark/RosettaStone March 1, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160301095053/http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/poll-trump-widens-republican-lead-ahead-super-tues/nqZ49/ dead
Margin of error: ± 2.6%
Sample size: 1400February 28, 2016Donald Trump39%Marco Rubio
20%Ted Cruz
15%Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 8%, Undecided 9%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 AtlantaGeorgia Republican Primary Poll http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/OS-GA-Republican-2.29.16-Toplines.pdf 1 March 2016 Opinion Savvy
Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 710February 27–28, 2016Donald Trump32.5%Marco Rubio
23.2%Ted Cruz
23.2%John Kasich 10.7%, Ben Carson 6.1%, Undecided 4.3%Trafalgar GroupGA Presidential Primary Survey http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Trafalgar_Group_GA_Feb_26_28_2016.pdf 1 March 2016 Trafalgar Group
Margin of error: ± 3.14% Sample size: 1350February 26–28, 2016Donald Trump38.6%Marco Rubio
23.54%Ted Cruz
20.74%John Kasich 7.03%, Ben Carson 6.14%, Undecided 3.95%CBS/YouGovPoll: Donald Trump leads in Virginia, Georgia; Ted Cruz hanging on in Texas http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-leads-virginia-georgia-ted-cruz-hanging-on-texas-super-tuesday/ 28 February 2016 YouGov
Margin of error: ± 7% Sample size: 493February 22–26, 2016Donald Trump40%Ted Cruz
29%Marco Rubio
22%Ben Carson 7%, John Kasich 2%ResearchNOW/WABEWABE Poll: Donald Trump Has Strong Lead With Ga. GOP Voters http://news.wabe.org/post/wabe-poll-donald-trump-has-strong-lead-ga-gop-voters 1 March 2016 ResearchNOW
Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 400February 22–24, 2016Donald Trump41%Marco Rubio
18%Ted Cruz
15%Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 10%SurveyUSA/TEGNAResults of SurveyUSA Election Poll #22709 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/TEGNA-WXIA-SUSA_Poll.pdf 26 February 2016 SurveyUSA
Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 684February 22–23, 2016Donald Trump45%Marco Rubio
19%Ted Cruz
16%Ben Carson 8%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 AtlantaGeorgia Republican Primary Poll http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/OS-GA-Republican-2.23.16-Toplines.pdf 24 February 2016 Opinion Savvy
Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 745February 22–23, 2016Donald Trump33.6%Marco Rubio
22.2%Ted Cruz
20.4%John Kasich 8.9%, Ben Carson 7.7%, Undecided 7.2%NBC News/Wall Street
Journal/MaristPolls: Trump, Clinton Ahead in Super Tuesday States http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-trump-clinton-ahead-super-tuesday-states-n527256 28 February 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist
Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 543February 18–23, 2016Donald Trump30%Ted Cruz
23%Marco Rubio
23%Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%Landmark/RosettaStoneGeorgia President Preference Primary Poll http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/02/22/Georgia_GOP_Pres_Pref_Poll_Feb_21ST_2016.pdf 23 February 2016 Landmark/RosettaStone March 3, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160303111350/http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/02/22/Georgia_GOP_Pres_Pref_Poll_Feb_21ST_2016.pdf dead
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500February 21, 2016Donald Trump31.7%Marco Rubio
22.7%Ted Cruz
18.7%Ben Carson 8.1%, John Kasich 7.9%, Undecided 10.9%Landmark/RosettaStoneGeorgia President Preference Primary Poll https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/georgia-gop-pres-pref-poll-2-5-16.pdf 7 February 2016 Landmark/RosettaStone March 11, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160311165710/https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/georgia-gop-pres-pref-poll-2-5-16.pdf dead
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500February 4, 2016Donald Trump27.3%Ted Cruz
18.3%Marco Rubio
18.2%Ben Carson 7.7%, John Kasich 4.4%, Chris Christie 3.9%, Jeb Bush 3.0%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Undecided 15.4%CBS/YouGovGeorgia Republican Primary Poll https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qw10jlxsxi/FL_ForRelease_20160124.pdf 25 January 2016 CBS/YouGov
Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 494January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump39%Ted Cruz
29%Marco Rubio
13%Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rand Paul 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, No preference 1%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 AtlantaGeorgia Republican Primary Poll http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GA-GOP-PP-1.17.16.pdf 19 January 2016 Opinion Savvy
Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 803January 17, 2016Donald Trump33.4%Ted Cruz
23.4%Marco Rubio
8.2%Ben Carson 7.3%, Jeb Bush 7.1%, John Kasich 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.7%, Carly Fiorina 3.5%, Rand Paul 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.2%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, Undecided 2.7%Opinion Savvy/Fox 5 AtlantaOpinion Savvy/Fox 5 Atlanta
Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 538December 16, 2015Donald Trump34.6%Ted Cruz 15.8%Marco Rubio 12%Ben Carson 6.4%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 5.6%, Carly Fiorina 5.1%, John Kasich 2.3%, Rand Paul 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.4%, George Pataki 0.5%, Undecided 6.8%WSB TV/LandmarkWSB TV/Landmark https://web.archive.org/web/20151213030730/http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/new-gop-poll-shows-trump-top-carson-collapsing/nphL8/ December 13, 2015
Margin of error: ±3.3%
Sample size: 800December 10, 2015Donald Trump43.3%Ted Cruz 16.2%Marco Rubio 10.6%Ben Carson 6.7%, Jeb Bush 4.8%, Mike Huckabee 1.9%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, John Kasich 1.5%, Rand Paul 0.5%, Undecided 12.9%FOX 5/Morris NewsFOX 5/Morris News
Margin of error: ±4.7%
Sample size: 674November 9–10, 2015Ben Carson26%Donald Trump24%Ted Cruz 14%Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 6%WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA-TV/SurveyUSA
Margin of error: ±2%
Sample size: 2,075October 26, 2015Donald Trump35%Ben Carson
28%Marco Rubio 12%Ted Cruz 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 2%WSB/LandmarkWSB/Landmark
Margin of error: ±4%
Sample size: 600September 23, 2015Donald Trump30.8%Ben Carson
17.9%Carly Fiorina 13.2%Marco Rubio 9.4%, Ted Cruz 7.9%, Jeb Bush 7.5%, Mike Huckabee 4.4%, John Kasich 1.9%, Rand Paul 1.1%, Undecided 5.9%Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy
Margin of error: ±3.8%
Sample size: 664September 3, 2015Donald Trump34.2%Ben Carson
24.8%Jeb Bush
10.9%Ted Cruz 6.3%, Mike Huckabee 5.1%, Carly Fiorina 4.5%, John Kasich 2.5%, Marco Rubio 2.1%, Chris Christie 2%, Scott Walker 1.9%, Rick Perry 0.1%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, Bobby Jindal 0.1%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, Rand Paul 0%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 1.8%, Undecided 3.5%WSB/LandmarkWSB/Landmark https://web.archive.org/web/20151231211303/http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2015/08/06/Georgia_GOP_Pres_Pref_Poll_8.5.15.pdf December 31, 2015
Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600August 5, 2015Donald Trump34.3%Jeb Bush
12.0%Scott Walker
10.4%Mike Huckabee 8.1%, Ben Carson 8.1%, Ted Cruz 5.4%, John Kasich 4.5%, Marco Rubio 4.5%, Chris Christie 2.8%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Undecided 7.5%5 Atlanta/Morris News Service5 Atlanta/Morris News Service November 2019 InternetArchiveBot yes
Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 569August 3, 2015Donald Trump30.4%Jeb Bush
17.3%Ben Carson
9.6%Mike Huckabee 6.5%, Ted Cruz 5.9%, Scott Walker 5%, Rand Paul 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 3% John Kasich 2.8%, Carly Fiorina 2.5% Rick Perry 2.1% Bobby Jindal 1.7%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0.2%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, Other/No opinion 5.9%Landmark Communications/Rosetta StoneLandmark Communications/Rosetta Stone
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 500May 11–12, 2015Mike Huckabee18.3%Ben Carson15.4%Scott Walker
12.6%Jeb Bush 10.1%, Marco Rubio 9.6%, Ted Cruz 9.3%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 2.6%, Chris Christie 2.2%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, Other/No opinion 15.6%Insider AdvantageInsider Advantage https://web.archive.org/web/20150212014536/http://www.peachpundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/GA-Issues-2-5-15.pdf February 12, 2015
Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 200February 4, 2015Jeb Bush21.5%Scott Walker
17.3%Mike Huckabee
16.4%Ben Carson 15.5%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Rand Paul 3.9%, Marco Rubio 3.9%, Chris Christie 3%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Other/No opinion 9.5%
Results
Trump won the Georgia primary with about half a million votes, representing 38.8% of all votes cast. He won 42 of the state's 76 delegates.http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/GA-R Georgia Republican Delegation 2016 The Green Papers 2018-10-05 Trump won 155 out of Georgia's 159 counties. The only four he did not win were Clarke, Cobb, DeKalb, and Fulton counties, all of which Rubio won comfortably.https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/donald-trump-won-all-but-these-four-counties-georgia/GLDiLwPVrTlcpUWC1RsZ6H/?icmp=AJC_internallink_352016_AJCtoAJC_trump_primary_story Donald Trump won all but these four counties in Georgia Santos Ana 2016-03-02 Atlanta Journal-Constitution 2018-09-10 Trump's strongest performance was in Atkinson County, where he received 65.9% of the vote.https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/which-georgia-counties-voted-for-donald-trump-the-most/byNtwxSBZ90VsW9kImWkGP/ Which Georgia counties voted for Donald Trump the most? Santos Ana 2016-03-05 Atlanta Journal-Constitution 2018-10-05
Analysis
Trump's victory in the Georgia primary, as well as in most other Southern Super Tuesday contests, could be attributed to strong support from Evangelical voters. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Donald Trump carried 39% of Evangelical voters, compared to 26% for Ted Cruz.2016 Election Center https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/ga/Rep 2022-06-11 CNN en Notably, however, 37% of Georgia voters believed Ted Cruz, not Donald Trump, shared their values, while only 12% believed Trump did.2016 Election Center https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls/ga/Rep 2022-06-11 CNN en
Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.Maxwell Angie 2020-12-30 Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/for-2020-2107/html?lang=en The Forum en 18 4 493–529 10.1515/for-2020-2107 232271667 1540-8884 subscription
Marco Rubio, who placed third in the Georgia primary, carried Atlanta and the suburban Atlanta metro, as well as the college town Clarke County, which contains the University of Georgia.
References
External links
Exit poll results from CNN
Georgia
Republican primary
2016