2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2008 U.S. House elections May 2022 2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2006 2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2010 The 2008 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2008, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and all five inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place alongside the election of Democratic Senator Barack Obama of Illinois as President of the United States. The winners served in the 111th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections. Forecasts On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets." He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/dangerous_dozen_open_house_sea.html Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats 2008-04-08 Rothenberg Stuart April 8, 2008 RealClearPolitics.com In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said, a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party. Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20527 Evans-Novak Political Report 2007-05-02 Novak Robert May 2, 2007 Human Events https://web.archive.org/web/20070510081321/http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20527 May 10, 2007 dead InTrade.com, the only betting site that offered odds on control of the House, put the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% 2008 10 on.https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=65263&eventSelect=65263&updateList=true&showExpired=false Contract – Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008 InTrade.com February 6, 2008 https://web.archive.org/web/20080919210454/https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=65263&eventSelect=65263&updateList=true&showExpired=false September 19, 2008 There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."http://politics1.com/blog-0508.htm#0514 Politics1.com 2008-05-14 Gunzburger Ron May 14, 2008 Politics1.com https://web.archive.org/web/20100314041218/http://politics1.com/blog-0508.htm#0514 March 14, 2010 dead mdy-all Election ratings The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party. District CPVIIncumbent Previousresult CookNovember 7, 20082008 Competitive House Race Chart http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2008-11-04_13-32-49.php House: Race Ratings Cook Political Report 6 November 2006 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106112035/http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2008-11-04_13-32-49.php 6 November 2008 RothenbergNovember 2, 20082008 House Ratings http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-house-ratings.html House Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report 2 November 2006 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106133426/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-house-ratings.html 6 November 2008 SabatoNovember 3, 2008The Last Last Word, 2008 11 03 us on RCPNovember 7, 2008Battle for the House of Representatives http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/house/battle_for_the_house_of_representatives.html realclearpolitics.com Real Clear Politics 9 December 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20081217170047/http://www.realclearpolitics.com:80/epolls/2008/house/battle_for_the_house_of_representatives.html 17 December 2008 7 November 2008 CQ PoliticsNovember 6, 2008Race Ratings Chart: House http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house cqpolitics.com Congressional Quarterly Inc 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20081106054801/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house 6 November 2008 Winner AL 2 X R 13 Terry Everett (R) (retiring) 69.54% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Bobby Bright (D) AL 3 X R 4 Mike Rogers (R) 59.47% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Mike Rogers (R) AL 5 X R 6 Bud Cramer (D) (retiring) 98.25% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Parker Griffith (D) AK AL X R 14 Don Young (R) 56.71% R Tossup Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Don Young (R) AZ 1 X R 2 Rick Renzi (R) (retiring) 51.75% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Ann Kirkpatrick (D) AZ 3 X R 6 John Shadegg (R) 59.27% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R John Shadegg (R) AZ 5 X R 4 Harry Mitchell (D) 50.41% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Lean D Harry Mitchell (D) AZ 8 X R 1 Gabby Giffords (D) 54.26% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Lean D Gabby Giffords (D) CA 3 X R 7 Dan Lungren (R) 59.48% R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Dan Lungren (R) CA 4 X R 11 John Doolittle (R) (retiring) 49.05% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Tom McClintock (R) CA 11 X R 3 Jerry McNerney (D) 53.27% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Safe D Likely D Jerry McNerney (D) CA 26 X R 4 David Dreier (R) 56.95% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R David Dreier (R) CA 45 X R 3 Mary Bono (R) 60.66% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Mary Bono (R) CA 46 X R 6 Dana Rohrabacher (R) 59.56% R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Dana Rohrabacher (R) CA 50 X R 5 Brian Bilbray (R) 53.14% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Brian Bilbray (R) CO 4 X R 9 Marilyn Musgrave (R) 45.61% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Betsy Markey (D) CT 2 X D 8 Joe Courtney (D) 50.02% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Joe Courtney (D) CT 4 X D 5 Chris Shays (R) 50.96% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Jim Himes (D) CT 5 X D 4 Chris Murphy (D) 56.46% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Chris Murphy (D) FL 8 X R 3 Ric Keller (R) 52.80% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Alan Grayson (D) FL 13 X R 4 Vern Buchanan (R) 50.08% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Vern Buchanan (R) FL 15 X R 4 Dave Weldon (R) 56.28% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Dave Weldon (R) FL 16 X R 2 Tim Mahoney (D) 49.55% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tom Rooney (R) FL 18 X R 4 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 62.15% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) FL 21 X R 6 Lincoln Díaz-Balart (R) 59.47% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Lincoln Díaz-Balart (R) FL 22 X D 4 Ron Klein (D) 50.88% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Ron Klein (D) FL 24 X R 3 Tom Feeney (R) 57.94% R Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Suzanne Kosmas (D) FL 25 X R 4 Mario Díaz-Balart (R) 58.47% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D Flip Tossup Lean R Mario Díaz-Balart (R) GA 8 X R 8 Jim Marshall (D) 50.55% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Jim Marshall (D) GA 12 X D 2 John Barrow (D) 50.30% D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D John Barrow (D) GA 13 X D 10 David Scott (D) 69.24% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D David Scott (D) ID 1 X R 19 Bill Sali (R) 49.94% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Walt Minnick (D) IL 6 X R 3 Peter Roskam (R) 51.35% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Peter Roskam (R) IL 8 X R 5 Melissa Bean (D) 50.90% D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Melissa Bean (D) IL 10 X D 4 Mark Kirk (R) 53.38% R Tossup Tilt R Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Mark Kirk (R) IL 11 X R 1 Jerry Weller (R) (retiring) 55.10% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Debbie Halvorson (D) IL 13 X R 5 Judy Biggert (R) 58.34% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Judy Biggert (R) IL 14 X R 5 Bill Foster (D) 52.53% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Bill Foster (D) IL 18 X R 5 Ray LaHood (R) (retiring) 67.28% R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Aaron Schock (R) IN 3 X R 16 Mark Souder (R) 54.28% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Mark Souder (R) IN 8 X R 9 Brad Ellsworth (D) 61.02% D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Brad Ellsworth (D) IN 9 X R 7 Baron Hill (D) 50.02% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Baron Hill (D) IA 4 X Even Tom Latham (R) 57.21% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Tom Latham (R) KS 2 X R 7 Nancy Boyda (D) 50.60% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean R Flip Tossup Lynn Jenkins (R) KS 3 X R 4 Dennis Moore (D) 56.61% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Dennis Moore (D) KY 2 X R 13 Ron Lewis (R) (retiring) 55.41% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Brett Guthrie (R) KY 3 X D 2 John Yarmuth (D) 50.62% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Lean D Likely D John Yarmuth (D) LA 1 X R 18 Steve Scalise (R) 75.13% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Steve Scalise (R) LA 2 X D 28 William Jefferson (D) 56.55% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Joseph Cao (R) LA 4 X R 7 Jim McCrery (R) (retiring) 57.40% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup John Fleming (R) LA 6 X R 7 Don Cazayoux (D) 49.20% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Bill Cassidy (R) LA 7 X R 7 Charles Boustany (R) 70.70% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Charles Boustany (R) ME 1 X D 6 Tom Allen (D) (retiring)"Senate" Retired to run for senate 60.84% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Chellie Pingree (D) MD 1 X R 10 Wayne Gilchrest (R) (lost renomination) 68.86% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Frank Kratovil (D) MI 7 X R 2 Tim Walberg (R) 50.47% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Mark Schauer (D) MI 8 X R 2 Mike Rogers (R) 55.27% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Mike Rogers (R) MI 9 X Even Joe Knollenberg (R) 51.56% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Gary Peters (D) MI 11 X R 1 Thaddeus McCotter (R) 54.05% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Thaddeus McCotter (R) MN 1 X R 1 Tim Walz (D) 52.73% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Tim Walz (D) MN 2 X R 3 John Kline (R) 56.19% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R John Kline (R) MN 3 X R 1 Jim Ramstad (R) (retiring) 64.85% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean R Tossup Tossup Erik Paulsen (R) MN 6 X R 5 Michele Bachmann (R) 50.05% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Michele Bachmann (R) MS 1 X R 10 Travis Childers (D) 53.78% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Lean D Lean D Travis Childers (D) MO 6 X R 5 Sam Graves (R) 61.64% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Lean R Lean R Sam Graves (R) MO 9 X R 7 Kenny Hulshof (R) (retiring) 61.45% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) NE 2 X R 9 Lee Terry (R) 54.66% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean R Safe R Lean R Lee Terry (R) NV 2 X R 8 Dean Heller (R) 50.35% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Dean Heller (R) NV 3 X D 1 Jon Porter (R) 48.46% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Dina Titus (D) NH 1 X Even Carol Shea-Porter (D) 51.27% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tossup Tossup Carol Shea-Porter (D) NH 2 X D 3 Paul Hodes (D) 52.71% D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Paul Hodes (D) NJ 3 X D 3 Jim Saxton (R) (retiring) 58.40% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup John Adler (D) NJ 5 X R 8 Scott Garrett (R) 54.91% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Scott Garrett (R) NJ 7 X R 1 Mike Ferguson (R) (retiring) 49.43% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Leonard Lance (R) NM 1 X D 2 Heather Wilson (R) (retiring)"Senate" 50.20% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Martin Heinrich (D) NM 2 X R 6 Steve Pearce (R) (retiring)"Senate" 59.42% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Harry Teague (D) NY 13 X D 1 Vito Fossella (R) (retiring) 56.79% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Michael McMahon (D) NY 19 X R 1 John Hall (D) 51.21% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D John Hall (D) NY 20 X R 3 Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 53.10% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Lean D Kirsten Gillibrand (D) NY 24 X R 1 Mike Arcuri (D) 53.94% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Mike Arcuri (D) NY 25 X D 3 James Walsh (R) (retiring) 50.79% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Dan Maffei (D) NY 26 X R 3 Thomas Reynolds (R) (retiring) 51.98% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Safe R Lean R Chris Lee (R) NY 29 X R 5 Randy Kuhl (R) 51.46% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Eric Massa (D) NC 5 X R 15 Virginia Foxx (R) 57.16% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Virginia Foxx (R) NC 8 X R 3 Robin Hayes (R) 50.14% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Larry Kissell (D) NC 10 X R 15 Patrick McHenry (R) 61.80% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Patrick McHenry (R) OH 1 X R 1 Steve Chabot (R) 52.25% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Steve Driehaus (D) OH 2 X R 13 Jean Schmidt (R) 50.45% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Jean Schmidt (R) OH 7 X R 6 Dave Hobson (R) (retiring) 60.62% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Steve Austria (R) OH 12 X R 1 Pat Tiberi (R) 57.30% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Pat Tiberi (R) OH 14 X R 2 Steve LaTourette (R) 57.55% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Steve LaTourette (R) OH 15 X R 1 Deborah Pryce (R) (retiring) 50.20% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Mary Jo Kilroy (D) OH 16 X R 4 Ralph Regula (R) (retiring) 58.34% R Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip John Boccieri (D) OH 18 X R 6 Zack Space (D) 62.06% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Zack Space (D) OK 1 X R 13 John Sullivan (R) 63.64% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R John Sullivan (R) OK 4 X R 13 Tom Cole (R) 64.61% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Tom Cole (R) OR 5 X D 1 Darlene Hooley (D) (retiring) 53.99% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Kurt Schrader (D) PA 3 X R 2 Phil English (R) 53.64% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Kathy Dahlkemper (D) PA 4 X R 3 Jason Altmire (D) 51.93% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Jason Altmire (D) PA 5 X R 10 John Peterson (R) (retiring) 60.09% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Glenn Thompson (R) PA 6 X D 2 Jim Gerlach (R) 50.66% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Jim Gerlach (R) PA 8 X D 3 Patrick Murphy (D) 50.30% D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Patrick Murphy (D) PA 10 X R 8 Chris Carney (D) 52.95% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Chris Carney (D) PA 11 X D 5 Paul Kanjorski (D) 72.47% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Paul Kanjorski (D) PA 12 X D 5 John Murtha (D) 60.80% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D John Murtha (D) PA 15 X D 2 Charlie Dent (R) 53.57% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Charlie Dent (R) PA 18 X R 2 Tim Murphy (R) 57.84% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Tim Murphy (R) SC 1 X R 10 Henry Brown (R) 59.87% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Henry Brown (R) SC 2 X R 9 Joe Wilson (R) 62.64% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Joe Wilson (R) TX 7 X R 16 John Culberson (R) 59.19% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R John Culberson (R) TX 10 X R 16 Michael McCaul (R) 55.32% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Michael McCaul (R) TX 22 X R 15 Nick Lampson (D) 51.79% D Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Pete Olson (R) TX 23 X R 4 Ciro Rodriguez (D) 54.28% D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Lean D Ciro Rodriguez (D) VA 2 X R 6 Thelma Drake (R) 51.27% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Glenn Nye (D) VA 5 X R 6 Virgil Goode (R) 59.11% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tom Perriello (D) VA 6 X R 11 Bob Goodlatte (R) 75.09% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Safe R Bob Goodlatte (R) VA 10 X R 5 Frank Wolf (R) 57.32% R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Frank Wolf (R) VA 11 X R 1 Tom Davis (R) (retiring) 55.45% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Gerry Connolly (D) WA 8 X D 2 Dave Reichert (R) 51.46% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Dave Reichert (R) WV 2 X R 5 Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57.18% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Shelley Moore Capito (R) WI 8 X R 4 Steve Kagen (D) 50.90% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Steve Kagen (D) WY AL X R 19 Barbara Cubin (R) (retiring) 48.33% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Cynthia Lummis (R) Overall | | D - 226R - 174 35 tossups | | D - 254R - 167 14 tossups | | D - 262R - 173 | | D - 237R - 171 26 tossups | | D - 242R - 167 26 tossups | | D - 257R - 178 References Notes * House