2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2006 U.S. House elections May 2022 2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2004 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2004 2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2008 The 2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and three of the four inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place halfway through the second term of Republican President George W. Bush. The winners served in the 110th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Republicans had held a House majority since January 1995 as a result of the 2006 elections. Summary of analyses Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows: "Safe" — the race was not expected to become competitive. "Favored" — the race was not competitive, but might become competitive if new political factors intervened. "Leans" — the race was competitive, but one candidate had a clear advantage. "Tossup" — neither candidate had a clear advantage. Source Safe Democratic Democratic Favored Leans Democratic Tossup Leans Republican Republican Favored Safe Republican CQPolitics.com as of Nov 6 182 Democratic Seats 16 Democratic seats 1 Republican seat 5 Democratic seats 9 Republican seats 23 Republican seats 20 Republican seats 22 Republican seats 157 Republican seats Cook Political Reportas of Nov 6 https://web.archive.org/web/20070927210001/http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_nov6.pdf September 27, 2007 182 Democratic Seats 13 Democratic seats 6 Democratic seats 5 Republican seats 1 Democratic seat 38 Republican seats 12 Republican seats 13 Republican seats 165 Republican seats Larry Sabato's Crystal Ballas of Nov 6(← and → show trends) 193 Democratic seats 6 Democratic seats1→3 Republican seats 4 Democratic seats1→ 26 Republican seats←5 (none) 31 Republican seats←10 - 3→ 10 Republican seats 162 Republican seats Majority Watch (final)as of Oct 30 198 seats 24 seats 18 seats 2 seats 10 seats 6 seats 177 seats Rothenberg Political Report(← and → show trends)as of Nov. 6 197 Democratic seats 1 Democratic seat 3 Republican seats 1 Democratic seats 6 Republican seats 3 Democratic seats ←3 37 Republican seats←8 10→ 3 Republican seats 8 Republican seats 166 Republican seats Electoral-vote.comas of Nov. 6203 Democratic seats 36 Republican seats 1 Republican seat 195 Republican seats Ed Fitzgerald's survey of pollsas of Nov. 6227 seats 4 seats204 seats Election ratings The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party. District CPVIIncumbent Previousresult CookNovember 6, 20062006 Competitive House Race Chart http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings House: Race Ratings Cook Political Report 6 November 2006 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20070927210001/http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_nov6.pdf 27 September 2007 RothenbergNovember 6, 20062006 House Ratings http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house House Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report 6 November 2006 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20061107153417/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2006/11/2006-house-ratings_06.html 7 November 2006 SabatoNovember 6, 20062006 House http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/ Sabato's Crystal Ball 6 November 2006 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20061110210331/http://www.centerforpolitics.org:80/crystalball/2006/house/ 10 November 2006 RCPNovember 6, 2006Battle for the House of Representatives http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/battle_for_the_house_of_representatives-51.html realclearpolitics.com Real Clear Politics 12 December 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20061109025111/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/battle_for_the_house_of_representatives-51.html 9 November 2006 7 November 2006 CQ PoliticsNovember 7, 2006Balance of Power Scorecard: House http://www.cqpolitics.com/risk_rating_house.html cqpolitics.com Congressional Quarterly Inc 20 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20061117202830/http://www.cqpolitics.com/risk_rating_house.html 17 November 2006 Winner AZ 1 X R 2 Rick Renzi (R) 58.54% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Rick Renzi (R) AZ 5 X R 4 J. D. Hayworth (R) 59.50% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Harry Mitchell (D) AZ 8 X R 1 Jim Kolbe (R) (retiring) 60.36% R Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Gabby Giffords (D) CA 4 X R 11 John Doolittle (R) 65.39% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R John Doolittle (R) CA 11 X R 3 Richard Pombo (R) 61.23% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Tossup Lean R Jerry McNerney (D) CA 50 X R 5 Brian Bilbray (R) 49.30% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Brian Bilbray (R) CO 3 X R 6 John Salazar (D) 50.55% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D John Salazar (D) CO 4 X R 9 Marilyn Musgrave (R) 51.05% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt D Flip Lean R Lean R Marilyn Musgrave (R) CO 5 X R 16 Joel Hefley (R) (retiring) 70.54% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Likely R Doug Lamborn (R) CO 6 X R 10 Tom Tancredo (R) 59.48% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Tom Tancredo (R) CO 7 X D 2 Bob Beauprez (R) (retiring)"Governor" Retired to run for Governor 54.72% R Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Ed Perlmutter (D) CT 2 X D 8 Rob Simmons (R) 54.22% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean R Lean R Joe Courtney (D) CT 4 X D 5 Chris Shays (R) 52.43% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Chris Shays (R) CT 5 X D 4 Nancy Johnson (R) 59.79% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Chris Murphy (D) FL 8 X R 3 Ric Keller (R) 60.52% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Ric Keller (R) FL 9 X R 4 Michael Bilirakis (R) 100.00% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Gus Bilirakis (R) FL 13 X R 4 Katherine Harris (R) (retiring)"Senate" Retired to run for senate 55.30% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Vern Buchanan (R) FL 16 X R 2 Vacant"Foley" Incumbent Mark Foley (Republican) resigned in September 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress. 68.04% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tim Mahoney (D) FL 22 X D 4 Clay Shaw (R) 62.79% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean R Tossup Ron Klein (D) GA 8 X R 8 Jim Marshall (D) 62.88% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup Lean D Jim Marshall (D) GA 12 X D 2 John Barrow (D) 51.81% D Likely D Tilt D Tilt D Tossup Lean D John Barrow (D) ID 1 X R 19 Butch Otter (R) (retiring)"Governor" 69.55% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt D Flip Lean R Lean R Bill Sali (R) IL 6 X R 3 Henry Hyde (R) (retiring) 55.83% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Peter Roskam (R) IL 8 X R 5 Melissa Bean (D) 51.70% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Melissa Bean (D) IL 10 X D 4 Mark Kirk (R) 64.14% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Mark Kirk (R) IL 17 X D 5 Lane Evans (D) (retiring) 60.68% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Phil Hare (D) IN 2 X R 4 Chris Chocola (R) 54.17% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Joe Donnelly (D) IN 3 X R 16 Mark Souder (R) 69.21% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Mark Souder (R) IN 7 X D 9 Julia Carson (D) 54.35% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Julia Carson (D) IN 8 X R 9 John Hostettler (R) 53.37% R Tossup Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Brad Ellsworth (D) IN 9 X R 7 Mike Sodrel (R) 49.46% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Baron Hill (D) IA 1 X D 5 Jim Nussle (R) (retiring)"Governor" 55.18% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Bruce Braley (D) IA 2 X D 7 Jim Leach (R) 58.96% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Dave Loebsack (D) IA 3 X D 1 Leonard Boswell (D) 55.25% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Leonard Boswell (D) KS 2 X R 7 Jim Ryun (R) 56.15% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Safe R Likely R Nancy Boyda (D) KS 3 X R 4 Dennis Moore (D) 54.82% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Dennis Moore (D) KY 2 X R 13 Ron Lewis (R) 67.92% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Ron Lewis (R) KY 3 X D 2 Anne Northup (R) 60.26% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt R Tossup Lean R John Yarmuth (D) KY 4 X R 12 Geoff Davis (R) 54.40% R Lean R Tilt R Tilt D Flip Lean R Lean R Geoff Davis (R) LA 2 X D 28 William Jefferson (D) 79.01% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D William Jefferson (D) LA 3 X R 5 Charlie Melançon (D) 50.25% D Lean D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Charlie Melançon (D) LA 7 X R 7 Charles Boustany (R) 54.96% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Charles Boustany (R) MD 3 X D 7 Ben Cardin (D) (retiring)"Senate" 63.44% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D John Sarbanes (D) MD 6 X R 13 Roscoe Bartlett (R) 67.45% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Roscoe Bartlett (R) MI 7 X R 2 Joe Schwarz (R) (lost renomination) 58.36% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Tim Walberg (R) MI 8 X R 2 Mike Rogers (R) 61.08% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Mike Rogers (R) MN 1 X R 1 Gil Gutknecht (R) 59.65% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tim Walz (D) MN 2 X R 3 John Kline (R) 56.42% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R John Kline (R) MN 6 X R 5 Mark Kennedy (R) (retiring)"Senate" 54.03% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Michele Bachmann (R) NE 1 X R 11 Jeff Fortenberry (R) 54.23% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Lean R Jeff Fortenberry (R) NE 3 X R 24 Tom Osborne (R) (retiring)"Governor" 87.45% R Lean R Likely R Tilt R Safe R Lean R Adrian Smith (R) NV 2 X R 8 Jim Gibbons (R) (retiring)"Governor" 66.15% R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Dean Heller (R) NV 3 X D 1 Jon Porter (R) 54.46% R Tossup Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Jon Porter (R) NH 1 X Even Jeb Bradley (R) 63.40% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Carol Shea-Porter (D) NH 2 X D 3 Charles Bass (R) 58.33% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Paul Hodes (D) NJ 5 X R 4 Scott Garrett (R) 57.57% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Scott Garrett (R) NJ 7 X R 1 Mike Ferguson (R) 56.88% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Mike Ferguson (R) NM 1 X D 2 Heather Wilson (R) 54.44% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Heather Wilson (R) NY 3 X D 2 Peter King (R) 62.96% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Peter King (R) NY 13 X D 1 Vito Fossella (R) 58.99% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Vito Fossella (R) NY 19 X R 1 Sue Kelly (R) 66.74% R Lean R Likely R Tilt R Lean R Lean R John Hall (D) NY 20 X R 3 John E. Sweeney (R) 65.83% R Tossup Tilt D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Kirsten Gillibrand (D) NY 24 X R 1 Sherwood Boehlert (R) (retiring) 56.89% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Mike Arcuri (D) NY 25 X D 3 James T. Walsh (R) 90.39% R Lean R Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Lean R James T. Walsh (R) NY 26 X R 3 Thomas M. Reynolds (R) 55.63% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean D Flip Thomas M. Reynolds (R) NY 29 X R 5 Randy Kuhl (R) 50.66% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Randy Kuhl (R) NC 8 X R 3 Robin Hayes (R) 55.54% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Robin Hayes (R) NC 11 X R 7 Charles Taylor (R) 54.90% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Heath Shuler (D) NC 13 X D 2 Brad Miller (D) 58.79% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Brad Miller (D) OH 1 X R 1 Steve Chabot (R) 59.87% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup Steve Chabot (R) OH 2 X R 13 Jean Schmidt (R) 51.63% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Tossup Tossup Jean Schmidt (R) OH 6 X Even Ted Strickland (D) (retiring)"Governor" 100.00% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Charlie Wilson (D) OH 12 X R 1 Pat Tiberi (R) 61.96% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Likely R Pat Tiberi (R) OH 13 X D 6 Sherrod Brown (D) (retiring)"Senate" 67.43% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Betty Sutton (D) OH 15 X R 1 Deborah Pryce (R) 60.02% R Tossup Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Deborah Pryce (R) OH 18 X R 6 Vacant"Ney" Incumbent Bob Ney (Republican) resigned in November 2006, seat left vacant until the next congress. 66.16% R Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Zack Space (D) OR 5 X D 1 Darlene Hooley (D) 52.86% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Darlene Hooley (D) PA 4 X R 3 Melissa Hart (R) 63.08% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Jason Altmire (D) PA 6 X D 2 Jim Gerlach (R) 51.01% R Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Tossup Tossup Jim Gerlach (R) PA 7 X D 4 Curt Weldon (R) 58.76% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Joe Sestak (D) PA 8 X D 3 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) 55.31% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Patrick Murphy (D) PA 10 X R 8 Don Sherwood (R) 92.84% R Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Chris Carney (D) SC 5 X R 6 John Spratt (D) 63.05% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D John Spratt (D) TX 17 X R 18 Chet Edwards (D) 51.20% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Chet Edwards (D) TX 22 X R 15 Vacant"DeLay" Incumbent Tom DeLay (Republican) resigned in June 2006, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) won a simultaneous special election to fill the remainder of DeLay's term. 55.16% R Tossup Tossup Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Nick Lampson (D) TX 23 X R 4 Henry Bonilla (R) 69.26% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Likely R Ciro Rodriguez (D) UT 2 X R 17 Jim Matheson (D) 54.76% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Jim Matheson (D) VT AL X D 8 Bernie Sanders (I) (retiring)"Senate" 67.46% I Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Peter Welch (D) VA 2 X R 6 Thelma Drake (R) 55.14% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Thelma Drake (R) VA 11 X R 5 Frank Wolf (R) 63.25% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Frank Wolf (R) WA 2 X D 3 Rick Larsen (D) 63.91 D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Rick Larsen (D) WA 5 X R 7 Cathy McMorris (R) 59.68% R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Likely R Cathy McMorris (R) WA 8 X D 2 Dave Reichert (R) 51.50% R Lean R Tilt R Tilt R Lean R Tossup Dave Reichert (R) WV 1 X R 6 Alan Mollohan (D) 67.78% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Alan Mollohan (D) WV 2 X R 5 Shelley Moore Capito (R) 57.46% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R Shelley Moore Capito (R) WI 8 X Even Mark Green (R) (retiring)"Governor" 70.16% R Tossup Tossup Tilt R Lean R Tossup Steve Kagen (D) WY AL X R 19 Barbara Cubin (R) 55.32% R Tossup Likely R Tilt R Safe R Tossup Barbara Cubin (R) Overall | | D - 207R - 189 39 tossups | | D - 220R - 196 19 tossups | | D - 233R - 202 | | D - 214R - 205 16 tossups | | D - 213R - 199 23 tossups | | D - 233R - 202 Polling map - November 6, 2006 The map below shows the latest polling information as of November 6, 2006, for House races. No party polls included. Darker colors indicate stronger support. Where no polls were available, last year's election results were used. If two polls tied for most recent, the longer poll was used. 500px Notes References Category:2006 United States House of Representatives elections Category:United States House of Representatives election ratings