2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

none March 2026 December 2017 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania Pennsylvania presidential no 2006 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania 2006 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania 2018 November 6, 2012 150x150px 59.4% (voting eligible)http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html 2012 General Election Turnout Rates George Mason University Dr. Michael McDonald February 9, 2013 April 6, 2013 https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html April 24, 2013 dead mdy-all Bob Casey, official Senate photo portrait, c2008 (cropped).jpg Bob Casey Jr. Democratic Party (United States) 3,021,364 53.69% Tom Smith PA cropped (cropped).jpg Tom Smith Republican Party (United States) 2,509,132 44.59% 260px County results 260px Congressional district results 1 240px Casey: #a5b0ff 40–50% #7996e2 50–60% #6674de 60–70% #584cde 70–80% #3933e5 80–90% #0D0596 >90%Smith: #ffb2b2 40–50% #e27f7f 50–60% #d75d5d 60–70% #d72f30 70–80% U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. Democratic Party (United States) Bob Casey Jr. Democratic Party (United States) The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith. The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith. Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. The election was the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election. As of , this is the last time that Fayette County and Luzerne County voted Democratic in a Senate election. This is also the only time since 1956 that Democrats have won a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race in a presidential year. Background On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962. Democratic primary Candidates Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. senatorhttp://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-dc-casey-2012-20101120,0,5867038.story https://archive.today/20120905201910/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-dc-casey-2012-20101120,0,5867038.story dead September 5, 2012 Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election November 21, 2010 November 25, 2010 The Morning Call Colby Itkowitzhttp://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10330/1106213-454.stm https://web.archive.org/web/20110628181414/http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10330/1106213-454.stm dead June 28, 2011 Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey November 26, 2010 November 26, 2010 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Daniel Malloy Joseph Vodvarka, spring makerItkowitz Colby Petitions filed for Pa. primary http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-pennsylvania-primary-ballot-20120215,0,1998861.story https://archive.today/20120909114442/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-pennsylvania-primary-ballot-20120215,0,1998861.story dead September 9, 2012 February 22, 2012 The Allentown Morning Call February 15, 2012 Results 260px|thumb|Results by county: #7996E2 Casey #584CDE 70–80% #3933E5 80–90% #0D0596 >90% Democratic primary results Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent) Democratic Party (United States) 565,488 80.9 Joseph Vodvarka Democratic Party (United States) 133,683 19.1 699,171 100.0 Republican primary Candidates On ballot David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race http://pike.mygopsite.net/2011/09/15/2012-david-christian-enters-u-s-senate-race/ September 24, 2011 Pike County Republican Committee https://web.archive.org/web/20111115153930/http://pike.mygopsite.net/2011/09/15/2012-david-christian-enters-u-s-senate-race/ November 15, 2011 dead mdy-all John Kensinger, pharmacisthttp://tribune-democrat.com/local/x1953746857/Hopeful-runs-for-Senate New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination September 28, 2011 September 30, 2011 The Tribune-Democrat Sandra K. Reabuck Sam Rohrer, former state representative from Robeson Township and candidate for governor in 2010Levy Marc Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45166461/ns/local_news-delaware_valley_pa_nj/t/sam-rohrer-run-caseys-senate-seat/#.TrcOx_Ssc9c November 6, 2011 MSNBC November 4, 2011August 2024 medicmedic Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum Tom Smith, farmer and businessman and candidate for governor in 2010http://www.goerie.com/article/20110929/NEWS02/309289863/Armstrong-County-Republican-announces-candidacy-for-US-Senate-in-Erie Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie September 29, 2011 September 30, 2011 Erie Times-News John Guerriero Steve Welch, businessmanhttp://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-welch-to-enter-senate-race/27742/ Welch to Enter Senate Race September 13, 2011 September 14, 2011 PoliticsPA Keegan Gibson Withdrew Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general electionshttp://www.politicspa.com/burns-exits-senate-race/31520/ Burns Exits Senate Race February 2, 2012 February 2, 2011 PoliticsPA Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activisthttp://www.politicspa.com/cummings-drops-out-of-senate-race-endorses-burns/30781/ Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns January 14, 2012 January 16, 2012 Politics PA Keegan Gibson John Vernon, retired Army colonelhttp://www.politicspa.com/vernon-endorses-burns-for-senate/30835/ Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate January 16, 2012 January 17, 2012 Politics PA Tara Jerry Declined Jake Corman, state senatorhttp://www.statecollege.com/news/local-news/corman-not-running-for-us-senate-in-2012-he-says-797097/ State College, PA - Corman Not Running for U.S. Senate in 2012, He Says www.statecollege.com dead https://web.archive.org/web/20110704103333/http://www.statecollege.com/news/local-news/corman-not-running-for-us-senate-in-2012-he-says-797097 2011-07-04 Charlie Dent, U.S. representativehttp://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-dent-casey-121010,0,3717021.story https://archive.today/20130722152802/http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-dent-casey-121010,0,3717021.story dead July 22, 2013 Dent versus Casey? December 10, 2010 December 10, 2010 The Morning Call Colby Itkowitz Jim Gerlach, U.S. representativehttp://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/11/gop-sees-opport.php GOP Looking For A Casey Challenger November 16, 2010 November 25, 2010 National Journal Jeremy P. Jacobs https://web.archive.org/web/20120212063234/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/11/gop-sees-opport.php February 12, 2012 dead mdy-all Keith Loiselle, businessmanhttps://www.politico.com/blogs/david-catanese/2011/08/is-casey-closer-to-a-serious-challenger-038124?showall Is Casey closer to a serious challenger? Politico August 4, 2011 August 8, 2011 Glen Meakem, radio host Pat Meehan, U.S. representativehttp://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory GOP wooing U.S. Rep. Pat Meehan to seek nod to run against Sen. Casey - delcotimes.com www.delcotimes.com dead https://web.archive.org/web/20120913041012/http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory 2012-09-13 Tim Murphy, U.S. representativehttp://www.observer-reporter.com/or/washingtoncounty11/08-31-2011-tim-murphy-visit U.S. Rep. Murphy says he won't run for Senate next year August 31, 2011 September 2, 2011 Observer-Reporter Brad HundtAugust 2024 InternetArchiveBot yes Dominic Pileggi, State Senate majority leaderhttp://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/pileggi-wont-ch.php Pileggi Won't Challenge Casey in Pa. December 5, 2011 December 5, 2011 National Journal Sean Sullivan December 23, 2011 https://web.archive.org/web/20111223183357/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/12/pileggi-wont-ch.php dead Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governorhttp://www.politicspa.com/schweiker-senate-run-"not-in-the-cards"/20152 Schweiker: Senate Run "Not in the Cards" January 14, 2011 January 15, 2011 PoliticsPA Bill Shuster, U.S. representative Mike Turzai, State House majority leader Kim Ward, state senatorhttp://www.politicspa.com/breaking-state-senator-kim-ward-exploring-challenge-to-bob-casey-in-2012/19227 EXCLUSIVE: State Senator Kim Ward Emerges as Potential Challenger to Bob Casey December 8, 2010 December 9, 2010 PoliticsPA Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor Campaign In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate.Levy Mark Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/577102_Pa--GOP-endorses-Welch-to-challenge-Sen--Casey.html April 28, 2012 Associated Press January 29, 2012 February 7, 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120207001920/http://lancasteronline.com/article/local/577102_Pa--GOP-endorses-Welch-to-challenge-Sen--Casey.html dead The largest state newspaper, The Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak. Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2–1. Smith spent a wide majority of it in television advertising.Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race http://www.yorkdispatch.com/penn/ci_20390442/smith-outspends-outraises-welch-us-senate-race April 28, 2012 Associated Press April 13, 2012 Like Welch, Smith had also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years.Gibson Keegan Where's Tom Smith? http://www.politicspa.com/wheres-tom-smith/34170/ April 28, 2012 PoliticsPA April 16, 2012 Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes nine times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes).Gibson Keegan Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign http://www.politicspa.com/smith-tax-votes-play-in-senate-campaign/33188/ April 28, 2012 PoliticsPA March 26, 2012 Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog.Gibson Keegan Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor http://www.politicspa.com/sen-candidate-smith-is-heavyweight-gop-donor/26926/ April 28, 2012 PoliticsPA August 17, 2011 Sam Rohrer, a former state representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain.Gibson Keegan Bachmann Endorses Rohrer http://www.politicspa.com/bachmann-endorses-rohrer/33353/ April 28, 2012 PoliticsPA March 28, 2012 David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for Congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.Primary 2012: Nominate Christian http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_791016.html https://archive.today/20120908114331/http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/s_791016.html dead September 8, 2012 Pittsburgh Tribune-Review April 28, 2012 Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror TimBurns DavidChristian LaureenCummings JohnKensinger SamRohrer MarcScaringi TomSmith JohnVernon SteveWelch Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 400 ±4.9% 15% — 2% — 25% 0% 3% 1% 1% 8% 43% Tribune-Review/WPXI-TVTribune-Review/WPXI-TV February 2–6, 2012 500 ±4.4% — 1% — 3% 10% 1% 8% — 1% — 72%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 564 ±4.1% — 10% — — 16% 8% 12% — 5% — 48% Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College March 20–25, 2012 505 ±4.2% — 1% — — 7% 1% 9% — 1% — 81% Results 260px|thumb|Results by county: #E27F7F Smith #FFE0EA 20–30% #FFC8CD 30–40% #FFB2B2 40–50% #E27F7F 50–60% #D75D5D 60–70% #D72F30 70–80% #C21B18 80–90% #ff9955 Rohrer #ffccaa <40% #ff6600 70–80% #8db8e2 Welch #b4d0ec 40–50% #8db8e2 50–60% #e68ce6 Christian #efb6ef 50–60% #81d0d0 Scaringi #daf5f5 30–40% Republican primary results2012 General Primary: United States Senator http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=45&OfficeID=2 PA Department of State April 25, 2012Brennan Kevin Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/04/smith-wins-penn.php April 25, 2012 National Journal April 24, 2012 https://web.archive.org/web/20120427235749/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/04/smith-wins-penn.php April 27, 2012 dead mdy-all Tom Smith Republican Party (United States) 299,726 39.5 Sam Rohrer Republican Party (United States) 169,118 22.3 Steve Welch Republican Party (United States) 158,181 20.9 David Christian Republican Party (United States) 79,581 10.5 Marc Scaringi Republican Party (United States) 51,908 6.8 758,514 100.0 General election Candidates Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator Rayburn Smith (Libertarian)11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_160329_1216969_0_0_18/CandidateList.pdf Pennsylvania Department of State August 27, 2012 March 4, 2016 https://web.archive.org/web/20160304055515/http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_160329_1216969_0_0_18/CandidateList.pdf dead Tom Smith (Republican), businessman Debates Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN Fundraising Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt Bob Casey, Jr. (D) $7,664,686 $2,754,060 $6,226,560 $5,261 Tom Smith (R) $7,954,211 $5,673,558 $2,280,655 $6,475,000 Source: Federal Election Commissionhttps://www.fec.gov/data/browse-data/ Browse data FEC.gov Top contributors https://www.opensecrets.org/races Congressional Races OpenSecrets Bob Casey, Jr. Contribution Tom Smith Contribution Comcast Corp $95,175 Rosebud Mining $26,000 Blank Rome LLP $65,500 Tj Smith Trucking $15,000 Reed Smith LLP $61,800 Penneco Oil Co $12,500 Cozen O'Connor $44,975 Transportation Equipment Supply Co $11,500 University of Pennsylvania $44,450 R&S Machine Co $10,250 Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney $43,098 Citizens United $10,000 K&L Gates $42,650 Mepco LLC $10,000 Pride Mobility Products $40,250 Snyder Armclar Gas $10,000 Blue Cross & Blue Shield $39,950 Stitt Management $10,000 National Amusements Inc. $39,250 Penn Waste $10,000 Top industries https://www.opensecrets.org/races/industries?cycle=2012&id=PAS2%7CDonors Kansas District 04 2012 Race OpenSecrets Bob Casey, Jr. Contribution Tom Smith Contribution Lawyers/law firms $2,095,026 Retired $104,725 Lobbyists $407,472 Mining $87,800 Real estate $389,559 Republican/Conservative $43,500 Health professionals $336,023 Oil & gas $40,750 Financial institutions $335,998 Misc Business $35,300 Retired $329,132 Financial institutions $25,500 Pharmaceuticals/health products $313,597 Misc. manufacturing & distributing $19,650 Hospitals/nursing homes $296,737 Leadership PACs $19,000 Entertainment industry $237,825 Misc. energy $18,000 Insurance $221,750 Trucking $15,250 Predictions Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 The Cook Political Report September 20, 2018 August 29, 2018 https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 dead Lean D November 1, 2012 Sabato's Crystal Ball2012 Senate http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2012-senate/ Sabato's Crystal Ball September 20, 2018 Lean D November 5, 2012 Rothenberg Political Report2012 Senate Ratings http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2012-senate-ratings-november-2-2012 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report September 20, 2018 Likely D November 2, 2012 Real Clear Politics2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html Real Clear Politics September 20, 2018 Lean D November 5, 2012 Polling Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror BobCasey, Jr. (D) TomSmith (R) Other UndecidedAngus Reid Public OpinionAngus Reid Public Opinion November 2–4, 2012 507 ± 4.2% 53% 46% 1% —Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 790 ± 3.5% 52% 44% — 3%Muhlenberg College/Morning CallMuhlenberg College/Morning Call https://web.archive.org/web/20121106072748/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc--morning-call-2012-pennsylvania-presidential-election-survey-20121104,0,3980627.htmlpage November 6, 2012 November 1–3, 2012 430 ± 5% 48% 42% 2% 9%Tribune-Review/SusquehannaTribune-Review/Susquehanna October 29–31, 2012 800 ± 3.4% 46% 45% 2% 8%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College October 23–28, 2012 547 ± 4.2% 46% 36% 4% 13%Philadelphia InquirerPhiladelphia Inquirer October 23–25, 2012 600 ± 4% 49% 42% — 9%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 24, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 45% — 9%Pharos ResearchPharos Research https://web.archive.org/web/20121031155409/http://www.scribd.com/doc/111056294/Pennsylvania-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 October 31, 2012 October 19–21, 2012 760 ± 3.6% 52% 42% — 6%Muhlenberg College PollMuhlenberg College Poll April 2023 InternetArchiveBot yes October 17–21, 2012 444 ± 5% 45% 37% 2% 16%Angus Reid Public OpinionAngus Reid Public Opinion April 2023 InternetArchiveBot yes October 18–20, 2012 559 ± 4.2% 51% 45% 4% —QuinnipiacQuinnipiac October 12–14, 2012 1,519 ± 2.5% 48% 45% — 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling October 12–14, 2012 500 ± 4.4% 50% 39% — 11%MuhlenbergMuhlenberg https://web.archive.org/web/20121018071836/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-read-muhlenbergtmc-pa-presidential-election-survey-10152012,0,1372801.htmlstory October 18, 2012 October 10–14, 2012 438 ± 5% 41% 39% 1% 18%Susquehanna PollingSusquehanna Polling August 2024 InternetArchiveBot yes October 11–13, 2012 1,376 ± 2.6% 46% 48% 1% 5%Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen Reports October 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 45% 1% 5%Philadelphia InquirerPhiladelphia Inquirer October 4–8, 2012 600 ± 4% 48% 38% — 14%Susquehanna PollingSusquehanna Polling October 4–6, 2012 725 ± 3.7% 46% 44% — 9%Siena PollSiena Poll October 1–5, 2012 545 ± 4.2% 44% 35% — 16%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College https://web.archive.org/web/20121021003532/http://www.muhlenberg.edu/pdf/main/academics/polisci/PA_LateSeptember_2012_Pres_Frequency.pdf October 21, 2012 September 22–26, 2012 427 ± 5% 44% 36% 7% 13%Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Pollhttps://archive.today/20130102054638/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57520341/poll-obama-opens-substantial-leads-in-key-swing-states/?pageNum=3&tag=contentMain;contentBody Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll September 18–24, 2012 1,180 ± 3% 49% 43% — —Franklin & MarshallFranklin & Marshall https://web.archive.org/web/20121006001039/https://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keysep12_1.pdf October 6, 2012 September 18–23, 2012 392 ± 4.9% 48% 38% — 8%Rasmussen Reports September 19, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 42% 2% 7%Muhlenberg CollegeMuhlenberg College https://web.archive.org/web/20120922124420/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-document-pa-presidential-poll-20120918,0,4409695.htmlstory September 22, 2012 September 10–16, 2012 640 ± 4% 45% 33% 5% 18%Philadelphia InquirerPhiladelphia Inquirer August 21–23, 2012 601 ± 4% 53% 34% — 13%MCall/Muhlenberg Pollhttps://archive.today/20130128141807/http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/blog_pennsylvania_ave/mc-muhlenberg-poll-casey-leads-smith-20120824,0,5744330.story MCall/Muhlenberg Poll August 20–22, 2012 422 ± 5% 49% 30% — 18%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College August 7–12, 2012 681 ± 3.8% 35% 23% 2% 39%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac https://web.archive.org/web/20120801182220/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-(fl-oh-and-pa)/release-detail?ReleaseID=1781 August 1, 2012 July 24–30, 2012 1,168 ± 2.9% 55% 37% — 8%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling July 21–23, 2012 758 ± 3.6% 46% 36% — 18%Rasmussen Reports July 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 49% 38% — 9%We Ask AmericaWe Ask America July 9–10, 2012 1,227 ± 2.8% 53% 39% — 8%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac https://web.archive.org/web/20121008120044/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767 October 8, 2012 June 19–25, 2012 1,252 ± 2.8% 49% 32% 1% 17%QuinnipiacQuinnipiac https://web.archive.org/web/20121008120048/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1761 October 8, 2012 June 5–10, 2012 997 ± 3.1% 51% 32% 1% 14%Franklin & Marshall CollegeFranklin & Marshall College May 29–June 4, 2012 412 ± 4.8% 42% 21% 2% 35%Rasmussen Reports May 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 41% 3% 7%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling May 17–20, 2012 671 ± 3.8% 49% 33% — 19%Public Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 49% 31% — 20%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 48% 32% — 20% background:#cff Hypothetical polling border:solid 1px silver; padding:8px; background:var(--background-color-base); color:var(--color-base); Republican primary Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror JakeCorman LaureenCummings CharlieDent JimGerlach TimMurphy RickSantorum MarcScaringi MarkSchweiker KimWard Other/UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 376 ± 5.1% 9% 5% 4% 7% 9% 47% 1% — 0% 18%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 3% — 8% 9% 7% 45% 1% 8% 1% 19% 9% — 10% 14% 13% — 1% 18% 2% 33% General election Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Generic Republican Depends on the candidate UndecidedQuinnipiacQuinnipiac https://web.archive.org/web/20120913042837/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=1718 September 13, 2012 March 7–12, 2012 1256 ± 2.8% 46% 34% 8% 12%Morning CallMorning Call February 15–21, 2012 625 ± 4% 40% 25% 20% 14% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) TimBurns (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 49% 34% — 17% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) DavidChristian (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 50% 32% — 18% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) JakeCorman (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 51% 35% — 14%Public Policy PollingPublic Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 35% — 14% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) LaureenCummings (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 51% 31% — 18%Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 32% — 17% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) CharlieDent (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 31% — 18%Municipoll Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% 51% 32% — 17%Public Policy Polling Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 51% 31% — 18% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) JimGerlach (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 49% 33% — 17%Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 50% 32% — 19%Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% 48% 34% — 17%Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 49% 33% — 18% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) TimMurphy (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 47% 35% — 18% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) SamRohrer (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 49% 34% — 17%Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 47% 36% — 16% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) RickSantorum (R) Other UndecidedMorning Call February 15–21, 2012 625 ± 4% 44% 36% 7% 12%Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 49% 39% — 11%Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 48% 39% — 13%Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 49% 37% — 13%Municipoll February 21–23, 2011 670 ± 3.79.% 50% 38% — 12%Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 48% 41% — 10%Public Policy Polling Public Policy Polling June 19–21, 2010 609 ± 4.0% 51% 39% — 10% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) MarcScaringi (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 49% 29% — 22%Public Policy Polling June 30 – July 5, 2011 545 ± 4.2% 47% 29% — 24%Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 51% 28% — 21%Public Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 50% 27% — 22% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) MarkSchweiker (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling January 3–5, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 47% 34% — 18% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) KimWard (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling April 7–10, 2011 593 ± 4.0% 50% 29% — 21% Poll source Date(s)administered Samplesize Margin oferror Bob Casey, Jr. (D) SteveWelch (R) Other UndecidedPublic Policy Polling March 8–11, 2012 689 ± 3.7% 49% 31% — 22%Public Policy Polling November 17–20, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 47% 33% — 20% Results Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he could win. He did win by more than expected, which can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County, home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in statewide elections in Pennsylvania. He also performed well in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh. He also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it was not enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013. United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012https://electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=27&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0 Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results electionreturns.pa.gov Democratic Party (United States) Bob Casey, Jr. (incumbent) 3,021,364 53.69% -4.95% Republican Party (United States) Tom Smith 2,509,132 44.59% +3.31% Libertarian Party (United States) Rayburn Smith 96,926 1.72% N/A 5,627,422 100.00% N/A Democratic Party (United States) Results by county County Bob Casey Jr.Democratic Tom Smith Republican Rayburn SmithLibertarian Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Adams 15,763 37.3% 25,467 60.3% 1,002 2.4% −9,704 −23.0% 42,232 Allegheny 362,459 59.3% 236,546 38.7% 12,106 2.0% 125,913 20.6% 611,111 Armstrong 9,496 32.2% 19,442 65.9% 574 1.9% −9,946 −33.7% 29,512 Beaver 39,970 50.1% 38,092 47.8% 1,701 2.1% 1,878 2.3% 79,763 Bedford 5,553 25.7% 15,673 72.7% 347 1.6% −10,120 −47.0% 21,573 Berks 84,403 50.8% 78,679 47.4% 2,909 1.8% 5,724 3.4% 165,991 Blair 17,424 34.7% 31,666 63.1% 1,097 2.2% −14,242 −28.4% 50,187 Bradford 8,234 35.4% 14,423 62.1% 581 2.5% −6,189 −26.7% 23,238 Bucks 162,258 51.6% 147,595 47.0% 4,303 1.4% 14,663 4.6% 314,156 Butler 30,620 34.5% 56,320 63.5% 1,751 2.0% −25,700 −29.0% 88,691 Cambria 28,779 47.7% 30,202 50.1% 1,330 2.2% −1,423 −2.4% 60,311 Cameron 767 36.3% 1,277 60.4% 69 3.3% −510 −24.1% 2,113 Carbon 11,924 47.2% 12,758 50.5% 589 2.3% −834 −3.3% 25,271 Centre 34,156 49.9% 32,112 46.9% 2,212 3.2% 2,044 3.0% 68,480 Chester 125,671 50.4% 119,296 47.8% 4,598 1.8% 6,375 2.6% 249,565 Clarion 5,105 31.6% 10,451 64.7% 585 3.6% −5,346 −33.1% 16,141 Clearfield 11,286 35.4% 19,845 62.3% 713 2.2% −8,559 −26.9% 31,844 Clinton 5,857 44.5% 7,020 53.3% 295 2.2% −1,163 −8.8% 13,172 Columbia 11,336 44.6% 13,509 53.1% 592 2.3% −2,173 −8.5% 25,437 Crawford 13,146 37.3% 21,140 60.0% 927 2.6% −7,994 −22.7% 35,213 Cumberland 46,294 42.1% 61,296 55.7% 2,445 2.2% −15,002 −13.6% 110,035 Dauphin 65,235 54.1% 53,649 44.5% 1,726 1.4% 11,586 9.6% 120,610 Delaware 170,477 61.6% 103,719 37.5% 2,746 1.0% 66,758 24.1% 276,942 Elk 5,611 42.6% 7,182 54.5% 386 2.9% −1,571 −11.9% 13,179 Erie 65,406 55.9% 48,708 41.6% 2,837 2.4% 16,698 13.3% 116,951 Fayette 24,298 50.5% 22,950 47.7% 846 1.8% 1,348 2.8% 48,094 Forest 884 38.4% 1,356 58.9% 61 2.7% −472 −20.5% 2,301 Franklin 19,726 31.5% 41,697 66.5% 1,286 2.1% −21,971 −35.0% 62,709 Fulton 1,605 26.2% 4,407 71.8% 125 2.0% −2,802 −45.6% 6,137 Greene 6,768 47.3% 7,262 50.8% 269 1.9% −494 −3.5% 14,299 Huntingdon 5,820 33.2% 11,285 64.3% 434 2.5% −5,465 −31.1% 17,539 Indiana 14,908 41.2% 20,452 56.5% 843 2.3% −5,544 −15.3% 36,203 Jefferson 4,878 27.0% 12,780 70.7% 428 2.4% −7,902 −43.7% 18,086 Juniata 3,010 31.5% 6,337 66.3% 204 2.1% −3,327 −34.8% 9,551 Lackawanna 64,940 66.7% 30,928 31.8% 1,543 1.6% 34,012 36.9% 97,411 Lancaster 88,778 40.3% 127,135 57.7% 4,387 2.0% −38,357 −17.4% 220,300 Lawrence 18,603 48.1% 19,353 50.1% 689 1.8% −750 −2.0% 38,645 Lebanon 21,007 37.5% 33,843 60.5% 1,110 2.0% −12,836 −23.0% 55,960 Lehigh 79,527 55.1% 62,071 43.0% 2,712 1.9% 17,456 12.1% 144,310 Luzerne 66,951 54.5% 53,168 43.3% 2,738 2.2% 13,783 11.2% 122,857 Lycoming 16,179 35.1% 29,024 62.9% 951 2.1% −12,845 −27.8% 46,154 McKean 5,355 35.9% 9,250 62.0% 316 2.1% −3,895 −26.1% 14,921 Mercer 24,314 48.4% 24,772 49.4% 1,101 2.2% −458 −1.0% 50,187 Mifflin 4,937 30.3% 11,099 68.1% 268 1.6% −6,162 −37.8% 16,304 Monroe 33,502 55.8% 25,579 42.6% 918 1.5% 7,923 13.2% 59,999 Montgomery 235,197 58.4% 163,883 40.7% 3,712 0.9% 71,315 17.7% 402,791 Montour 3,121 40.3% 4,435 57.3% 190 2.5% −1,314 −17.0% 7,746 Northampton 68,203 54.0% 56,268 44.6% 1,821 1.4% 11,935 9.4% 126,292 Northumberland 12,904 39.5% 19,057 58.3% 720 2.2% −6,153 −18.8% 32,681 Perry 6,168 32.3% 12,420 65.1% 504 2.6% −6,252 −32.8% 19,092 Philadelphia 564,886 86.4% 84,461 12.9% 4,503 0.7% 480,425 73.5% 653,850 Pike 10,081 44.2% 12,267 53.8% 450 2.0% −2,186 −9.6% 22,798 Potter 1,950 27.3% 5,035 70.4% 169 2.4% −3,085 −43.1% 7,154 Schuylkill 24,639 42.9% 31,625 55.0% 1,204 2.1% −6,986 −12.1% 57,468 Snyder 4,651 31.3% 9,851 66.3% 366 2.5% −5,200 −35.0% 14,868 Somerset 10,866 32.1% 22,190 65.7% 744 2.2% −11,324 −33.6% 33,800 Sullivan 1,050 35.9% 1,803 61.6% 72 2.5% −753 −25.7% 2,925 Susquehanna 7,082 39.3% 10,555 58.6% 385 2.1% −3,473 −19.3% 18,022 Tioga 5,255 31.3% 11,179 66.5% 381 2.3% −5,924 −35.2% 16,815 Union 6,112 38.0% 9,592 59.7% 370 2.3% −3,480 −21.7% 16,074 Venango 7,816 35.5% 13,608 61.8% 608 2.8% −5,792 −26.3% 22,032 Warren 6,432 37.7% 10,136 59.4% 483 2.8% −3,704 −21.7% 17,051 Washington 43,711 46.7% 48,047 51.3% 1,850 2.0% −4,336 −4.7% 93,608 Wayne 8,791 40.9% 12,276 57.1% 433 2.0% −3,485 −16.2% 21,500 Westmoreland 69,431 41.4% 95,218 56.8% 3,060 1.8% −25,787 −15.4% 167,709 Wyoming 5,117 43.3% 6,391 54.1% 310 2.6% −1,274 −10.8% 11,818 York 74,681 39.8% 108,021 57.6% 4,941 2.6% −33,340 −17.8% 187,643Totals 3,021,364 53.69% 2,509,132 44.59% 96,926 1.72% 512,232 9.10% 5,627,422 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Armstrong (largest city: Kittanning) Cambria (largest municipality: Johnstown) Carbon (largest municipality: Lehighton) Clearfield (largest township: DuBois) Greene (largest municipality: Waynesburg) Lawrence (largest municipality: New Castle) Mercer (largest municipality: Hermitage) Clinton (largest city: Lock Haven) Columbia (largest city: Bloomsburg) Elk (largest city: St. Marys) Forest (largest city: Marienville) Indiana (largest city: Indiana) Somerset (largest city: Somerset) Schuylkill (largest city: Pottsville) Warren (largest city: Warren) Westmoreland (largest township: Hempfield Township) Washington (largest township: Peters Township) By congressional district Casey won nine of 18 congressional districts, including four that elected Republicans.https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts Daily Kos 11 August 2020 District Smith Casey RepresentativePennsylvania 1 1st 15.85% 83.36%Bob BradyPennsylvania 2 2nd 8.61% 90.74%Chaka FattahPennsylvania 3 3rd 53.94% 43.87%Mike KellyPennsylvania 4 4th54.81%42.78%Jason AltmireScott PerryPennsylvania 5 5th 55.83% 41.46%Glenn ThompsonPennsylvania 6 6th 48.56% 49.72%Jim GerlachPennsylvania 7 7th 48.23% 50.58%Pat MeehanPennsylvania 8 8th 47.74% 50.94%Mike FitzpatrickPennsylvania 9 9th 58.99% 38.94%Bill ShusterPennsylvania 10 10th 58.12% 39.84%Tom MarinoPennsylvania 11 11th 51.35% 46.54%Lou BarlettaPennsylvania 12 12th52.79%45.31%Mark CritzKeith RothfusPennsylvania 13 13th 30.84% 68.37%Allyson SchwartzPennsylvania 14 14th 27.74% 70.02%Mike DoylePennsylvania 15 15th 48.2% 50.02%Charlie DentPennsylvania 16 16th 51.6% 46.52%Joe PittsPennsylvania 17 17th40.96%57.28%Tim HoldenMatt CartwrightPennsylvania 18 18th 53.4% 44.81%Tim Murphy See also 2012 United States Senate elections 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania References External links Pennsylvania Department of State https://web.archive.org/web/20120212190700/http://www.dos.state.pa.us/ February 12, 2012 Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation Issue positions at On the Issues Official campaign websites (archived) Bob Casey, Jr. for U.S. Senate Tom Smith for U.S. Senate United States Senate Pennsylvania 2012