2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

none June 2025 September 2023 2004 United States presidential election 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina North Carolina presidential no 2000 United States presidential election in North Carolina 2000 2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina 2008 November 2, 2004 x200px George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) Texas Dick Cheney 15 1,961,166 56.02% John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg John Kerry Democratic Party (United States) Massachusetts John Edwards 0 1,525,849 43.58% 400px County results 400px Congressional district results 400px Precinct results Bush #F2B3BE 40–50% #E27F90 50–60% #CC2F4A 60–70% #D40000 70–80% #AA0000 80–90% #800000 90–100% Kerry #B9D7FF 40–50% #86B6F2 50–60% #4389E3 60–70% #1666CB 70–80% #0645B4 80–90% #002B84 90–100% Tie #D4C4DC President George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) George W. Bush Republican Party (United States) 64.26% Voter Turnout https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/voter-turnout#general North Carolina State Board of Elections The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.44% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or a red state. North Carolina was also the home state of Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976. While winning the state comfortably, Bush's margin of 12.44% was 0.39% lower than his 2000 performance, making it the only Southern state to swing more Democratic than 2000. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Mecklenburg or Guilford counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. As of 2024, this remains the last time that North Carolina has been decided by a double-digit margin in a presidential election. Primaries 2004 North Carolina Democratic presidential caucuses Campaign Predictions There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW Archived copy dcpoliticalreport.com January 15, 2022 https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW November 21, 2010 usurped +SourceRankingD.C. Political ReportLikely RCook Political ReportLean RResearch 2000Lean RZogby InternationalLikely RWashington PostLikely RWashington DispatchLikely RWashington TimesSolid RThe New York TimesSolid RCNNLikely RNewsweekLean RAssociated PressLean RRasmussen ReportsLikely R Polling Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3-poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%.http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=37 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2009-10-10 https://web.archive.org/web/20081128064855/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=37 2008-11-28 dead Fundraising Bush raised $4,465,160.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President www.campaignmoney.com Kerry raised $2,049,794.http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President www.campaignmoney.com Advertising and visits Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/IA/ CNN.com Specials www.cnn.comhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/ CNN.com Specials www.cnn.com Analysis John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election.USATODAY.com - Poll: Edwards pick gives Kerry's campaign a boost https://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-07-12-poll-election_x.htm www.usatoday.com In 2000, George W. Bush had performed strongly in most of the South, including North Carolina, which he had won by 12.83%. As in most of the rest of the South, he did so once again in North Carolina, notwithstanding Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket, although his margin of victory did go down slightly, to 12.44%, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Bush consistently led in polling leading up to election day.RealClear Politics - Polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nc_polls.html www.realclearpolitics.com Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeastern black belt, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. However, Kerry did narrowly flip two heavily populated counties, Mecklenburg and Guilford, which have gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election as of 2024. He also cut Bush's margin in another heavily populated county, Wake, from 7.1% to 2.1%. As of 2024, Wake has gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election save 2012. Large Democratic margins in these counties have been instrumental to making North Carolina competitive in every election from 2008 onward. 2024 11 As of the 2024 presidential election, this is the last election in which Pitt County, Forsyth County, Wilson County, Wake County, Buncombe County, and Cumberland County voted for a Republican presidential candidate.Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016 This is also the last presidential race in where any candidate won North Carolina by double digits, as well as the last time the state was not seriously contested. Results 2004 United States presidential election in North CarolinaPartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Richard Cheney (incumbent) 1,961,166 56.02% 15 Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,525,849 43.58% 0 Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,731 0.34% 0 Others N/A N/A 2,261 0.06% 0 Totals 3,501,007 100% 15 Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 55.4% By county CountyGeorge W. BushRepublicanJohn KerryDemocraticVarious candidatesOther partiesMarginTotal#%#%#%#%Alamance33,30261.47%20,68638.18%1870.35%12,61623.29%54,175Alexander10,92870.05%4,61829.60%540.34%6,31040.45%15,600Alleghany2,88359.73%1,92239.82%220.45%96119.91%4,827Anson3,79641.15%5,41358.68%160.17%−1,617−17.53%9,225Ashe7,29261.68%4,47737.87%540.46%2,81523.81%11,823Avery5,67875.47%1,80523.99%410.55%3,87351.48%7,524Beaufort12,43263.68%7,02535.99%650.34%5,40727.69%19,522Bertie3,05738.06%4,93861.48%370.46%−1,881−23.42%8,032Bladen6,17450.14%6,10949.61%300.24%650.53%12,313Brunswick22,92560.37%14,90339.24%1490.39%8,02221.13%37,977Buncombe52,49149.99%51,86849.39%6540.63%6230.60%105,013Burke18,92261.51%11,72838.12%1120.37%7,19423.39%30,762Cabarrus40,78067.05%19,80332.56%2410.40%20,97734.49%60,824Caldwell21,18667.58%9,99931.90%1630.52%11,18735.68%31,348Camden2,48064.75%1,33934.96%110.29%1,14129.79%3,830Carteret17,71669.27%7,73230.23%1270.50%9,98439.04%25,575Caswell4,86851.58%4,53948.10%300.32%3293.48%9,437Catawba39,60267.48%18,85832.13%2280.39%20,74435.35%58,688Chatham12,89249.73%12,89749.75%1330.51%−5−0.02%25,922Cherokee7,51767.12%3,63532.46%470.42%3,88234.66%11,199Chowan2,96755.09%2,40644.67%130.24%56110.42%5,386Clay3,20965.95%1,62833.46%290.59%1,58132.49%4,866Cleveland22,75061.36%14,21538.34%1140.31%8,53523.02%37,079Columbus10,77350.84%10,34348.81%750.36%4302.03%21,191Craven23,57562.44%14,01937.13%1620.43%9,55625.31%37,756Cumberland49,13951.60%45,78848.08%2990.31%3,3513.52%95,226Currituck6,01366.99%2,90932.41%540.60%3,10434.58%8,976Dare9,34560.10%6,13639.46%670.43%3,20920.64%15,548Davidson42,07570.72%17,19128.89%2300.39%24,88441.81%59,496Davie12,37274.17%4,23325.38%750.45%8,13948.79%16,680Duplin9,61157.96%6,92341.75%490.30%2,68816.21%16,583Durham34,61431.57%74,52467.96%5130.47%−39,910−36.39%109,651Edgecombe8,16338.73%12,87761.09%390.19%−4,714−22.36%21,079Forsyth75,29454.12%63,34045.53%4910.35%11,9548.59%139,125Franklin11,54055.17%9,28644.39%920.44%2,25410.78%20,918Gaston43,25267.84%20,25431.77%2490.39%22,99836.07%63,755Gates1,92447.47%2,12152.33%80.20%−197−4.86%4,053Graham2,69367.54%1,27231.90%220.56%1,42135.64%3,987Granville9,49151.02%9,05748.69%530.28%4342.33%18,601Greene3,80058.71%2,66541.18%70.11%1,13517.53%6,472Guilford98,25449.30%100,04250.19%1,0180.51%−1,788−0.89%199,314Halifax8,08841.17%11,52858.68%310.16%−3,440−17.51%19,647Harnett20,92264.24%11,56335.50%860.26%9,35928.74%32,571Haywood14,54556.09%11,23743.33%1500.58%3,30812.76%25,932Henderson28,02564.82%15,00334.70%2060.48%13,02230.12%43,234Hertford2,94236.18%5,14163.22%490.61%−2,199−27.04%8,132Hoke5,25747.41%5,79452.25%370.33%−267−4.84%11,088Hyde1,23553.86%1,04845.70%100.43%1878.16%2,293Iredell38,67567.88%18,06531.71%2330.41%20,61036.17%56,973Jackson7,35151.86%6,73747.53%860.61%6144.33%14,174Johnston36,90367.89%17,26631.76%1880.35%19,63736.13%54,357Jones2,60757.77%1,89341.95%130.29%71415.82%4,513Lee11,83460.55%7,65739.18%520.27%4,17721.37%19,543Lenoir12,93955.82%10,20744.04%330.14%2,73211.78%23,179Lincoln20,05267.79%9,43431.89%930.32%10,61835.90%29,579Macon9,44862.89%5,48936.53%870.58%3,95926.36%15,024Madison5,17554.69%4,23444.74%540.57%9419.95%9,463Martin5,33451.03%5,10248.81%160.15%2322.22%10,452McDowell10,59066.18%5,33033.31%820.51%5,26032.87%16,002Mecklenburg155,08448.00%166,82851.63%1,1900.37%−11,744−3.63%323,102Mitchell5,68672.92%2,08026.67%320.41%3,60646.25%7,798Montgomery5,74556.99%4,31342.79%220.22%1,43214.20%10,080Moore24,71464.39%13,55535.32%1130.30%11,15929.07%38,382Nash21,90258.14%15,69341.66%780.21%9,77916.48%37,673New Hanover45,35155.82%35,57243.78%3240.40%12,61612.04%81,247Northampton3,17636.21%5,58463.67%100.11%−2,408−27.46%8,770Onslow25,89069.45%11,25030.18%1370.37%14,64039.27%37,277Orange20,77132.38%42,91066.89%4720.74%−22,139−34.51%64,153Pamlico3,67960.93%2,33538.67%240.40%1,34422.26%6,038Pasquotank6,60948.42%6,98451.17%550.41%−375−2.75%13,648Pender10,03758.75%6,99940.97%490.28%3,03817.78%17,085Perquimans2,96559.80%1,97139.75%220.44%99420.05%4,958Person8,97358.98%6,19840.74%430.28%2,77518.24%15,214Pitt28,59053.30%24,92446.46%1290.24%3,6666.84%53,643Polk5,14056.98%3,78741.98%941.05%1,35315.00%9,021Randolph37,77174.19%12,96625.47%1730.34%24,80548.72%50,910Richmond7,70947.75%8,38351.92%530.33%−674−4.17%16,145Robeson15,90946.97%17,86852.75%940.28%−1,959−5.78%33,871Rockingham22,84061.09%14,43038.60%1180.32%8,41022.49%37,388Rowan34,91567.32%16,73532.27%2170.42%18,18035.05%51,867Rutherford16,34366.28%8,18433.19%1310.53%8,15933.09%24,658Sampson12,60056.53%9,64943.29%390.17%2,95113.24%22,288Scotland5,14144.52%6,38655.30%200.17%−1,245−10.78%11,547Stanly17,81469.71%7,65029.94%890.35%10,16439.77%25,553Stokes13,58369.96%5,76729.71%640.33%7,81640.25%19,414Surry17,58767.66%8,30431.95%1010.39%9,28335.71%25,992Swain2,59351.41%2,41947.96%320.64%1743.45%5,044Transylvania9,38660.21%6,09739.11%1050.68%3,28921.10%15,588Tyrrell85553.77%73145.97%40.25%1247.80%1,590Union42,82070.20%17,97429.47%2070.34%24,84640.73%61,001Vance6,88443.91%8,76255.89%310.20%−1,878−11.98%15,677Wake177,32450.83%169,90948.71%1,6110.46%7,4152.12%348,844Warren2,84035.38%5,17164.42%160.20%−2,331−29.04%8,027Washington2,48445.40%2,96954.27%180.33%−485−8.87%5,471Watauga12,65952.64%11,23246.70%1590.66%1,4275.94%24,050Wayne24,88362.14%15,07637.65%870.22%9,80724.49%40,046Wilkes19,19770.70%7,86228.95%950.35%11,33541.75%27,154Wilson16,26453.26%14,20646.52%650.21%2,0586.74%30,535Yadkin11,81677.16%3,45122.54%460.30%8,36554.62%15,313Yancey4,94052.38%4,43447.02%570.60%5065.36%9,431Totals1,961,16656.02%1,525,84943.58%13,9920.40%435,31712.44%3,501,007 right 300px Swing by county Legend #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% #d40000 Republican — +>15% 300px Trend by county Legend #4bdbff Democratic — +7.5-10% #77e3ff Democratic — +5-7.5% #aaeeff Democratic — +2.5-5% #d5f6ff Democratic — +0-2.5% #ffd5d5 Republican — +0-2.5% #ffaaaa Republican — +2.5-5% #ff8080 Republican — +5-7.5% #ff5555 Republican — +7.5-10% #ff2a2a Republican — +10-12.5% #ff0000 Republican — +12.5-15% #d40000 Republican — +>15% 300px County flips Legend Democratic #92c5de Hold #0671b0 Flip Republican #f48882 Hold #ca0120 Flip Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican 20em Bladen (largest municipality: Elizabethtown) Chowan (largest municipality: Edenton) Columbus (largest municipality: Whiteville) Cumberland (largest municipality: Fayetteville) Granville (largest municipality: Oxford) Martin (largest municipality: Williamston) Tyrrell (largest municipality: Columbia) Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Guilford (largest municipality: Greensboro) Mecklenburg (largest municipality: Charlotte) By congressional district Bush won nine of 13 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats.http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project www.swingstateproject.com District Bush Kerry RepresentativeNorth Carolina 1 1st 42% 57%G. K. ButterfieldNorth Carolina 2 2nd 54% 46%Bob EtheridgeNorth Carolina 3 3rd 68% 32%Walter B. JonesNorth Carolina 4 4th 44% 55%David PriceNorth Carolina 5 5th66%33%Richard BurrVirginia FoxxNorth Carolina 6 6th 69% 30%Howard CobleNorth Carolina 7 7th 56% 44%Mike McIntyreNorth Carolina 8 8th 54% 45%Robin Hayes North Carolina 9 9th 63% 36%Sue Wilkins MyrickNorth Carolina 10 10th67%33%Cass BallengerPatrick McHenryNorth Carolina 11 11th 57% 43%Charles H. TaylorNorth Carolina 12 12th 37% 63%Mel WattNorth Carolina 13 13th 47% 52%Brad Miller Electors List of 2004 United States presidential electors Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector. The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols. The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney: Joseph W. Powell Ann Sullivan William B. Carraway Sandra Carter William H. Trotter Thomas D. Luckadoo Judy Keener Marcia M. Spiegel Dewitt Rhoades Davey G. Williamson Theresa Esposito Elizabeth Kelly Larry W. Potts Joe Morgan Robert Rector References North Carolina 2004 United States presidential