2015 North Sydney by-election

April 2024 December 2015 2015 North Sydney by-election Australia Parliamentary Primary no 2013 Australian federal election 2013 2015 12 5 y 2016 Australian federal election 2016 78.37% ( 13.88) 104,352 Division of North Sydney (NSW) in the House of Representatives Trent Zimmerman Trent_Zimmerman.jpg 160 130 170 0 18 center Liberal Party of Australia 36,690 48.20% 12.84 Stephen Ruff Independent (Australia) Independent (Australia) 14,303 18.79% 18.79 ArthurChesterfield-Evans Arthur Chesterfield-Evans.png 160 130 170 4 16 center Australian Greens 11,959 15.71% 0.36 TCP 60.23% 39.77% TCP swing 5.66 39.77 File:Division of North Sydney 2010.png The Division of North Sydney covers 53 km² of Sydney's lower north shore. MP Joe Hockey Liberal Trent Zimmerman Liberal The 2015 North Sydney by-election was held on 5 December 2015 to elect the member for North Sydney in the Australian House of Representatives.http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/north-sydney-by-election-2015/ 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408115146/https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/north-sydney-by-election-2015 live North Sydney by-election 2015 Antony Green Antony Green ABC News The trigger for the by-election was the 23 October parliamentary resignation of Joe Hockey, the backbench Liberal Member for North Sydney and former Abbott Coalition government Treasurer.Former Joe Hockey staffer Trent Zimmerman has won preselection in the federal seat of North Sydney, prompting calls for him to resign from his role as acting president of the NSW Liberals. Zimmerman wins North Sydney preselection http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/10/26/hockey-election-be-held-december-5 AAP 26 October 2015 SBS News 26 October 2015 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408115745/https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/zimmerman-wins-north-sydney-preselection/cuz2w9sx0 live House of Representatives Speaker Tony Smith issued the writ for the by-election on 26 October. The electoral roll containing 104,352 electors closed on 2 November. Candidate nominations closed on 12 November, and the draw of the ballot paper order occurred on 13 November.http://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2015/10-26e.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20240408120211/https://www.aec.gov.au/media/media-releases/2015/10-26e.htm 8 April 2024 live Enrol now for the 2015 North Sydney by-election Australian Electoral Commission 26 October 2015 Key dates for the 2015 North Sydney by-election The by-election was won by Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman, a former Hockey staffer, whose pre-selection had been controversial. Zimmerman won with 48.2 percent of the primary vote after a larger-than-predicted 12.8 percent swing against the Turnbull Coalition government. This was only the second time in North Sydney's history that the successful Liberal candidate did not obtain over 50 percent of the primary (first preference) vote and had to rely on preferences, the other time was in the 1961 general election. Zimmerman faced a double-digit primary vote swing − more than triple that of the 2015 Canning by-election − despite the absence of a Labor candidate. Labor have never been successful in the safe Liberal seat. The Liberal two-candidate vote of 60.2 percent against independent Stephen Ruff compares to the previous election vote of 65.9 percent against Labor. The reduction of 5.7 percent cannot be considered a "two-party/candidate preferred swing" − when a major party is absent, preference flows to both major parties does not take place, resulting in asymmetric preference flows.http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/02/a-comment-on-the-size-of-the-port-adelaide-swing.html https://web.archive.org/web/20160304035358/http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/02/a-comment-on-the-size-of-the-port-adelaide-swing.html 4 March 2016 dead A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing Antony Green Blogs.abc.net.au 2012-02-13 2012-07-26April 2024 Source does not mention North Sydney once, accurate quote needed if information is in citationhttp://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/05/an-example-of-non-monotonicity-and-opportunites-for-tactical-voting-at-an-australian-election.html https://web.archive.org/web/20160304022617/http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/05/an-example-of-non-monotonicity-and-opportunites-for-tactical-voting-at-an-australian-election.html 4 March 2016 dead An example of non-monotonicity and opportunities for Tactical Voting at an Australian election Antony Green Antony Green ABC.net.au 4 May 2011April 2024 Source does not mention North Sydney once, accurate quote needed if information is in citation Ian Macfarlane attempted to defect from the Liberal party room to the National party room with accompanying demands for additional Nationals cabinet representation, and the Mal Brough / James Ashby diary controversy deepened in the last week of the campaign.http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-mp-ian-macfarlane-defects-to-nationals-in-shock-move-against-malcolm-turnbull-20151203-gle6rd.html registration https://web.archive.org/web/20240408122210/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-ian-macfarlane-defects-to-nationals-in-shock-move-against-malcolm-turnbull-20151203-gle6rd.html 8 April 2024 live James Massola Liberal MP Ian Macfarlane defects to Nationals in shock move against Malcolm Turnbull Sydney Morning Herald 3 December 2015http://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-taking-an-overseas-trip-spells-trouble-for-malcolm-turnbull-2015-12 https://web.archive.org/web/20220119055254/http://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-taking-an-overseas-trip-spells-trouble-for-malcolm-turnbull-2015-12 19 January 2022 dead Simon Thomsen First up is Mal Brough. The Howard-era political fixer was rewarded by Turnbull for his efforts as a numbers man during the PM’s ascent, becoming special minister of state, despite lingering questions over Brough’s role in the downfall of former speaker Peter Slipper during Labor’s time in power. Malcolm Turnbull suddenly has a lot of problems Business Insider 3 December 2015 Along with the unexpected by-election swing and Turnbull's significantly lessened personal ratings in the concurrent December Newspoll led journalists at several news outlets to opine Malcolm Turnbull's honeymoon to be over.http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/party-games-turnbulls-honeymoon-coming-to-an-end/news-story/74e526f974eb2be4f52f085aa311106e subscription Turnbull's 'honeymoon' coming to an end The Courier Mail 3 December 2015http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-is-a-13-per-cent-swing-against-government-in-north-sydney-a-warning-for-malcolm-turnbull/news-story/fb4ca4201b4e0bcf7dab36f87f8f1aaa subscription Is the Turnbull honeymoon over? The Courier Mail 7 December 2015http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/breaking-news/turnbull-ducks-talk-on-broughs-future/story-fnn9c0gw-1227637192122 Turnbull ducks talk on Brough's future The Advertiser 8 December 2015 Zimmerman became the first openly-LGBTI member of the House of Representatives. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-trent-zimmerman-wins-north-sydney-byelection-despite-swing-20151205-glgfba.html registration 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408055714/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-trent-zimmerman-wins-north-sydney-byelection-despite-swing-20151205-glgfba.html live Sydney Morning Herald Gartrell, Adam Liberal Trent Zimmerman wins North Sydney byelection despite swing 5 December 2015 6 December 2015http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/when-an-elections-not-a-battle-but-a-limp-formality/story-fnpug1jf-1227624325868 When an election's not a battle but a limp formality The Daily Telegraph 26 November 2015 Justin Smith https://web.archive.org/web/20240408055448/https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/rendezview/when-an-elections-not-a-battle-but-a-limp-formality/news-story/d1ec8775c4d2e5dd4478b150d1e95403?nk=3979c7896acb27c35110ceb65b1f5462-1712555688 8 April 2024 live Candidates Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot. Party Candidate Background  Arts Lou Pollard Arts activist, comedian, actor, writer and clown doctor.  Sustainable Population William Bourke Party founder and president. Principal partner in a national marketing business.  Liberal Democrats Sam Kennard Managing director of Kennards Self Storage  Voluntary Euthanasia Kerry Bromson Party convenor.  Future James Jansson Party leader.  Greens Arthur Chesterfield-Evans Medical doctor. Democrats member of the NSW Legislative Council from 1998 to 2007.  Independent Maryann Beregi Councillor on North Sydney Council.  Christian Democrats Silvana Nero Perennial candidate. Italian language teacher. Second wife of party leader Fred Nile.  Palmer United Robert Marks Company director, auctioneer and real estate agent. Candidate for Bennelong at the 2013 federal election.  Liberal Trent Zimmerman Acting party president of the NSW division. Former Joe Hockey staffer.  Independent Stephen Ruff Senior orthopaedic surgeon at Royal North Shore Hospital. Backed by former independent North Sydney MP Ted Mack.  Cyclists Luke Freeman Digital marketer, volunteers with not-for-profit organisations.  Bullet Train Tim Bohm Party president. Candidate for Molonglo at the 2012 ACT election and the Senate in NSW at the 2013 federal election. Labor declined to field a candidate in the safe Liberal seat. By-election events The campaign began amid claims of "widespread discontent for the Liberal pre-selection factional fix of Trent Zimmerman" and in the absence of a Labor candidate. Hockey's predecessor, former independent North Sydney MP Ted Mack, announced he would steer the campaign of independent candidate Stephen Ruff, who had the support of some disgruntled Liberal supporters. Ruff was a late entrant into the 2015 New South Wales state election. Despite having no financial or campaign support and facing veteran Liberal incumbent Jillian Skinner and a Labor candidate in the overlapping state seat of North Shore, Ruff won more than 10 percent of the vote.August 2021 Regarding the North Sydney by-election, Mack stated "I've never seen an election where a Liberal candidate is so disliked by such a lot of Liberal members and Liberal voters". Leaked emails show potential voters were sent registration forms at 7:30 pm on a Thursday and asked to signal their availability, with the cut-off for replying by noon the next day. Advance notice of the e-mail and cut-off was provided to Zimmerman's backers. It was claimed up to 550 Liberal branch members were unable to vote after the Liberal state executive pushed through a shortened pre-selection process to select Zimmerman. Zimmerman is head of the body that sets the rules for Liberal pre-selections, which has been claimed as a "complete conflict of interest". Former North Sydney Liberal party member John Ruddick, described by journalist Peter Hartcher as a "prominent party reform activist", advocated that voters disenfranchised by the pre-selection process to preference Zimmerman last. Why I'm putting Trent Zimmerman last on North Sydney byelection ballot 24 November 2015 7 December 2015 Ruddick, John The Sydney Morning Herald http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-im-putting-trent-zimmerman-last-on-north-sydney-byelection-ballot-20151123-gl5zwd.html registration 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408124520/https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/why-im-putting-trent-zimmerman-last-on-north-sydney-byelection-ballot-20151123-gl5zwd.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true live Mack also claimed that much of the electorate was angered that Hockey, who had written the "age of entitlement" speech, had forced a $1-million by-election within a year of the 2016 federal election, with the expectation of becoming the next Ambassador of Australia to the United States. Ted Mack working to install an independent in Joe Hockey's old seat 10 November 2015 7 December 2015 Aston, Heath http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ted-mack-working-to-install-an-independent-in-joe-hockeys-old-seat-20151110-gkva4o.html The Age North Sydney preselection for Joe Hockey's safe seat under cloud of a political fix 26 October 2015 7 December 2015 Robertson, James http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/north-sydney-preselection-for-joe-hockeys-safe-seat-under-cloud-of-a-political-fix-20151025-gkhxkd.html The Sydney Morning Herald Liberals thumb their noses at party reform 31 October 2015 7 December 2015 Hartcher, Peter http://www.smh.com.au/comment/liberals-thumb-their-noses-at-party-reform-20151030-gkn480.html The Sydney Morning Herald Peter Hartcher The expectation was confirmed a few days after the by-election on 8 December.Lisa Cox http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-announced-as-australias-next-ambassador-to-the-united-states-20151207-glhy2o.html Joe Hockey announced as Australia's next ambassador to the United States The Sydney Morning Herald 8 December 2015 registration 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408131509/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joe-hockey-announced-as-australias-next-ambassador-to-the-united-states-20151208-glhy2o.html live The Liberal party room suffered from the attempted defection of Ian Macfarlane from the Liberal party room to the National party room with accompanying demands for additional Nationals cabinet representation, and the Mal Brough / James Ashby diary controversy deepened in the last week of the campaign. How-to-vote cards Candidate volunteers distribute how-to-vote cards to voters at polling booths which show the candidate's suggested preference allocation. Candidates and parties which suggested preferences are shown in each column of the table below. Several candidates ran open tickets at this by-election. Arts Vote Lou Pollard Facebook https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153050935001534&set=a.57297401533.78765.546276533&type=3&theater 2015-12-06April 2024 yesSPP Preferences: https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_SPP_HTV.jpg abc.net.au 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408050855/https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_SPP_HTV.jpg 8 April 2024 liveLDP https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_LDP_HTV.jpg Liberal Democrats Macquarie Park Less Government More Freedom 8 April 2024 abc.net.auVEP Your Life Your Choice Your Vote abc.net.au https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_VEP_HTV.jpg Bowral Voluntary Euthanasia Party 8 April 2024 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408051053/https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_VEP_HTV.jpg liveFuture http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_FUT_HTV.jpg Future Party how-to-vote card, 2015 North Sydney by-election ABC.net.au 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408051215/https://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_FUT_HTV.jpg live Future Party James Jansson Enmore NSWGreenshttp://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_GRN_HTV.jpg The Greens New South Wales 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408051755/http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_GRN_HTV.jpg live How To Vote For The NSW Greens ABC.net.auBeregi http://www.votemaryann.com/uploads/6/5/6/3/65631651/how_to_vote_for_maryann.pdf Neutral Bay 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408052035/http://www.votemaryann.com/uploads/6/5/6/3/65631651/how_to_vote_for_maryann.pdf live An Independent Voice For North Sydney 2 Dec 2015 votemaryann.com Beregi MaryAnnCDPhttp://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Silvana-Campaign-Flyer-40951_CD_A5FlyerNorthSydneyv2.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20201107204054/http://www.christiandemocraticparty.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Silvana-Campaign-Flyer-40951_CD_A5FlyerNorthSydneyv2.pdf 7 November 2020 dead Silvana Nero: Your New Voice for North Sydney 2 Dec 2015 Christian Democratic Party Parramatta NSWPUPApril 2024Liberalhttp://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_LIB_HTV.jpg 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408053100/http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/byelections/2015-federal-north-sydney/NSYD_LIB_HTV.jpg live How To Vote For Malcolm Turnbull's Liberal Candidate Trent Zimmerman East Sydney NSW ABC.net.auRuffhttps://drsruff.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/2015-11-10-214856-final-teds-how-to-vote-a4.pdf 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408053314/https://drsruff.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2015-11-10-214856-final-teds-how-to-vote-a4.pdf live Stephen Ruff how-to-vote card 26 Nov 2015 St Leonards Ruff StephenCyclistsApril 2024Bullet TrainApril 2024Arts163610SPP14939LDP11011118VEP15297Future1786Greens7145Beregi8414CDP1313513Palmer United1210122Liberal1112131Ruff987111Cyclists35212Bullet Train261013 Polling Two days before the by-election, a ReachTEL automated phone poll of 678 respondents, commissioned by the Save Our Councils Coalition, showed the Liberals with a 54.7 percent primary vote after exclusion of the 15.3 percent undecided. Accurately interpreted, this amounted to a 6.4 percent drop from the 2013 Liberal vote, rather than the 14.7 percent in the report, which ignored the undecided component. The poll result had the Greens on 22.8 percent, the Christian Democratic Party on 4.1 percent, and everyone else on 18.3 percent.http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/council-amalgamations-fuelling-liberal-backlash-in-north-sydney-byelection-20151203-gledlp.html Sean Nicholls registration 8 April 2024 https://archive.today/20240408130840/https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/council-amalgamations-fuelling-liberal-backlash-in-north-sydney-byelection-20151203-gledlp.html live Council amalgamations fuelling Liberal backlash in North Sydney by-election Sydney Morning Herald 3 December 2015https://www.pollbludger.net/2015/12/03/north-sydney-by-election-december-5/? William Bowe North Sydney by-election: December 5 3 December 2015 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408130152/https://www.pollbludger.net/2015/12/03/north-sydney-by-election-december-5/? 8 April 2024 live The Poll Bludger 16 May 2019 Results Electoral results for the Division of North Sydney 2015 North Sydney by-electionhttp://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-19402-137.htm 2015 North Sydney by-election results Australian Electoral Commission 6 December 2015 https://web.archive.org/web/20151208065531/http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefsByVoteType-19402-137.htm 8 December 2015 dead http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/north-sydney-by-election-2015/results/ 2015 North Sydney by-election results ABC News Trent Zimmerman Liberal 36,690 48.20 −12.84 Stephen Ruff Independent 14,303 18.79 +18.79 Arthur Chesterfield-Evans Greens 11,959 15.71 +0.36 Maryann Beregi Independent 2,613 3.43 +3.43 William Bourke Sustainable Population 2,189 2.88 +2.88 Silvana Nero Christian Democrats 1,917 2.52 +1.51 Sam Kennard Liberal Democrats 1,591 2.09 +2.09 Lou Pollard Arts Party 1,400 1.84 +1.84 Tim Bohm Bullet Train for Australia 964 1.27 +1.27 Kerry Bromson Voluntary Euthanasia 815 1.07 +1.07 Luke Freeman Australian Cyclists 815 1.07 +1.07 James Jansson Future Party 513 0.67 +0.67 Robert Marks Palmer United Party 352 0.46 −1.23 76,121 93.08 −1.54 5,658 6.92 +1.54 81,779 78.37 −13.88 Trent Zimmerman Liberal 45,848 60.23 −5.66 Stephen Ruff Independent 30,273 39.77 +39.77 Liberal N/A Results were final as of 22 December.https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/2015-north-sydney/ https://web.archive.org/web/20240408125109/https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/2015-north-sydney/ 8 April 2024 live 2015 North Sydney by-election Australian Electoral Commissionhttp://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/north-sydney-by-election-2015/commentary/ At the end of the night Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman is set to win having polled 47.5% of the first preference vote. In second place is Independent Dr Stephen Ruff with 18.8% and Green candidate Dr Arthur Chesterfield-Evans is third on 16.1%. The other ten candidates have 17.6% between them, none reaching the 4% required to recover the nomination deposit or become eligible for public funding. Commentary - 2015 North Sydney state by-election Antony Green Antony Green ABC News 8 April 2024 https://web.archive.org/web/20240408115437/https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/north-sydney-by-election-2015/commentary live Liberal candidate Trent Zimmerman won with 48.2 percent of the primary vote after a larger-than-predicted 12.8 percent swing against the Turnbull Coalition government. This was only the second time in North Sydney's history that the successful Liberal candidate did not obtain a majority of the primary vote and had to rely on preferences. Zimmerman faced a double-digit primary vote swing − more than triple that of the 2015 Canning by-election − despite the absence of a Labor candidate. Labor have never been successful in the safe Liberal seat. The Liberal two-candidate vote of 60.2 percent against independent Stephen Ruff compares to the previous election vote of 65.9 percent against Labor. The reduction of 5.7 percent cannot be considered a "two-party/candidate preferred swing"—when a major party is absent, preference flows to both major parties does not take place, resulting in asymmetric preference flows. See also Electoral results for the Division of North Sydney List of Australian federal by-elections References External links http://www.aec.gov.au/north-sydney/ Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) 2015 North Sydney by-election http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/north-sydney-by-election-2015/ ABC News 2015 North Sydney by-election http://www.tallyroom.com.au/nsyd2015 The Tally Room 2015 North Sydney by-election 8 April 2024 https://ghostarchive.org/archive/3JkNN Ben Raue live Category:New South Wales federal by-elections Category:2015 elections in Australia