2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings

Predictions for select races in the 2010 U.S. House elections May 2022 2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings United States 2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2008 2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings 2012 The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2010, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territoriesNot including the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term. were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the first term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 112th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections. Predictions on overall outcome thumb These were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections. RealClearPolitics. As of November 2, 2010, RCP projected the Republicans would take 224 seats, the Democrats would take 167, and 44 races were toss-ups.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html Battle For The House Realclearpolitics.com November 4, 2010 Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (New York Times) As of November 2, 2010, Nate Silver's prediction model projected the Republicans would win (on average) 232.2 seats, and the Democrats would win 202.8.Silver Nate http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/the-ultimate-hour-by-hour-district-by-district-election-guide/#more-2869 The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com October 31, 2010 November 4, 2010 Patrick Ishmael, Hot Air.com Ishmael predicted on October 31, 2010, that Republicans would win a net of 63 seats, +/- 3 seats.Patrick Ishmael http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/31/game-time-final-house-rankings-and-printable-cheat-sheet Game Time: Final House rankings and printable cheat sheet Hot Air October 31, 2010 November 24, 2010 December 3, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101203150242/http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/31/game-time-final-house-rankings-and-printable-cheat-sheet/ dead Rasmussen Reports cited Ishmael's calls in its election preview.What To Look For On Election Night http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/october_2010/what_to_look_for_on_election_night Rasmussen Reports November 2, 2010 November 24, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101104233038/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/october_2010/what_to_look_for_on_election_night November 4, 2010 The week before, Ishmael predicted a net Republican pickup of 62–65 seats.Patrick Ishmael Eight days out, GOP still poised to gain 60+ House seats http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/25/eight-days-out-gop-still-poised-to-gain-60-house-seats Hot Air October 25, 2010 November 24, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101129060014/http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/25/eight-days-out-gop-still-poised-to-gain-60-house-seats/ November 29, 2010 dead mdy-all Crystal Ball As of November 1, 2010, Larry Sabato predicted, "If the election were held today: + 55 Republican House seats".http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-house/ 2010 House Ratings Centerforpolitics.org November 1, 2010 November 4, 2010 October 23, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101023041747/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-house/ dead Charlie Cook On October 26, 2010, The Cook Political Report raised its House forecast to "a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible."Cook Political Report http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/cook-political-8.php Cook Political Ups Projected Democratic Losses To 48 to 60 October 26, 2010 October 26, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101029154911/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/cook-political-8.php October 29, 2010 dead mdy-all In a February 2010 interview with National Journal, he said that "it's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard."http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/democrats_will_lose_the_house_charlie_cook Democrats Will Lose the House: Charlie Cook Outsidethebeltway.com February 22, 2010 June 14, 2010 Rasmussen Reports On November 1, 2010, Scott Rasmussen predicted the Democrats "will likely lose 55 or more seats in the House." Scott Rasmussen https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703708404575586063725870380 A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP wsj.com November 1, 2010 November 4, 2010 Rothenberg Political Report. On October 28, 2010, Rothenberg Political Report predicted "Likely Republican gain of 55–65 seats, with gains at or above 70 seats possible."http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/october-28-2010-house-ratings House Ratings rothenbergpoliticalreport.com October 28, 2010 November 4, 2010 In April 2010, Stuart Rothenberg wrote on his blog that "...the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and major Republican House gains are extremely likely" and that "it's clear that the battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the House is at risk."Rothenberg The http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2010/04/new-print-edition-house-overview.html The Rothenberg Political Report: New Print Edition: House Overview Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com April 14, 2010 June 14, 2010 Congressional Quarterly. In October 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 195 seats, the Republicans 199, and they considered 41 races too close to call.http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234534/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house October 28, 2010 CQ Politics House Race Ratings Map for 2010 Innovation.cqpolitics.com In July 2010, Congressional Quarterly projected the Democrats would take 205 seats, the Republicans 190, and they considered 40 races too close to call.http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr CQ Politics House Race Ratings Map for 2010 Innovation.cqpolitics.com July 11, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20100710191959/http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr July 10, 2010 dead mdy-all Election ratings Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election. Most election ratings use: Tossup: no advantage Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage Lean: clear advantage Likely: strong, but not certain advantage Safe: outcome is nearly certain The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name. District CPVIIncumbent Previousresult CookNovember 1, 2010http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-11-01_12-12-36.php The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races Cookpolitical.com November 1, 2010 November 1, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101104002959/http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-11-01_12-12-36.php November 4, 2010 dead mdy-all RothenbergNovember 1, 2010Rothenberg Political Report http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house House Ratings Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com November 1, 2010 November 1, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101124232121/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house November 24, 2010 SabatoNovember 1, 2010Larry J. Sabato Isaac Wood Election Eve Special https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs20101101201001/ centerforpolitics.org University of Virginia 30 November 2023 1 November 2010 RCPNovember 1, 2010RealClearPolitics, 2010 11 01 us on CQ PoliticsOctober 28, 2010http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house 2010 House Ratings Chart CQ Politics November 1, 2010 https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234534/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house October 28, 2010 NYTNovember 1, 2010House Race Ratings http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house nytimes.com New York Times 9 October 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20101107095111/http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house 7 November 2010 538November 1, 2010Nate Silver House Race Ratings http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house nytimes.com FiveThirtyEight 30 November 2023 https://web.archive.org/web/20101107220216/http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house 7 November 2010 7 November 2010 Winner AL 2 X R 16 Bobby Bright (D) 50.23% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Martha Roby (R) AL 5 X R 12 Parker Griffith (R) (lost renomination) 51.52% D Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Mo Brooks (R) AZ 1 X R 6 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 55.88% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Paul Gosar (R) AZ 3 X R 9 John Shadegg (R) (retiring) 54.07% R Lean R Safe R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R Ben Quayle (R) AZ 5 X R 5 Harry Mitchell (D) 53.15% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip David Schweikert (R) AZ 7 X D 6 Raúl Grijalva (D) 63.26% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Raúl Grijalva (D) AZ 8 X R 4 Gabby Giffords (D) 54.72% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Gabby Giffords (D) AR 1 X R 8 Robert Marion Berry (D) (retiring) 100.0% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Rick Crawford (R) AR 2 X R 5 Vic Snyder (D) (retiring) 76.54% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Tim Griffin (R) AR 4 X R 7 Mike Ross (D) 86.17% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D Mike Ross (D) CA 3 X R 6 Dan Lungren (R) 49.49% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Dan Lungren (R) CA 11 X R 1 Jerry McNerney (D) 55.27% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Jerry McNerney (D) CA 18 X D 4 Dennis Cardoza (D) 100.0% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Dennis Cardoza (D) CA 20 X D 5 Jim Costa (D) 74.33% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean R Flip Lean D Lean D Tossup Jim Costa (D) CA 44 X R 6 Ken Calvert (R) 51.19% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Ken Calvert (R) CA 45 X R 3 Mary Bono (R) 58.29% R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Mary Bono (R) CA 47 X D 4 Loretta Sanchez (D) 69.49% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Loretta Sanchez (D) CO 3 X R 5 John Salazar (D) 61.61% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Scott Tipton (R) CO 4 X R 6 Betsy Markey (D) 56.20% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Cory Gardner (R) CO 7 X D 4 Ed Perlmutter (D) 63.48% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Ed Perlmutter (D) CT 1 X D 13 John Larson (D) 71.55% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D John Larson (D) CT 2 X D 6 Joe Courtney (D) 65.67% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Joe Courtney (D) CT 4 X D 4 Jim Himes (D) 51.32% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Jim Himes (D) CT 5 X D 2 Chris Murphy (D) 59.86% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Chris Murphy (D) DE AL X D 7 Mike Castle (R) (retiring)"Senate" Retired to run for senate 61.08% R Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Safe D Flip John Carney (D) FL 2 X R 6 Allen Boyd (D) 62.23% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Safe R Flip Steve Southerland (R) FL 8 X R 2 Alan Grayson (D) 52.02% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Daniel Webster (R) FL 12 X R 6 Adam Putnam (R) (retiring) 57.46% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Safe R Likely R Dennis A. Ross (R) FL 22 X D 1 Ron Klein (D) 54.67% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean D Tossup Lean R Flip Allen West (R) FL 24 X R 4 Suzanne Kosmas (D) 55.69% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Sandy Adams (R) FL 25 X R 5 Mario Díaz-Balart (R) (retiring) 53.05% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup Likely R David Rivera (R) GA 2 X D 1 Sanford Bishop (D) 68.94% D Tossup Lean D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Sanford Bishop (D) GA 8 X R 10 Jim Marshall (D) 57.24% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Likely R Flip Austin Scott (R) GA 12 X D 1 John Barrow (D) 66.00% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Lean D Safe D John Barrow (D) HI 1 X D 11 Charles Djou (R) 39.68% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Flip Colleen Hanabusa (D) ID 1 X R 18 Walt Minnick (D) 50.60% D Tossup Tilt D Lean R Flip Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Raúl Labrador (R) IL 8 X R 1 Melissa Bean (D) 60.72% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Joe Walsh (R) IL 10 X D 6 Mark Kirk (R) (retiring)"Senate" 52.56% R Lean D Flip Tilt D Flip Lean D Flip Tossup Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Bob Dold (R) IL 11 X R 1 Debbie Halvorson (D) 58.40% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Adam Kinzinger (R) IL 14 X R 1 Bill Foster (D) 57.75% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Randy Hultgren (R) IL 17 X D 3 Phil Hare (D) 99.77% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Bobby Schilling (R) IN 2 X R 2 Joe Donnelly (D) 67.09% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Joe Donnelly (D) IN 8 X R 8 Brad Ellsworth (D) (retiring)"Senate" 64.74% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Larry Bucshon (R) IN 9 X R 6 Baron Hill (D) 57.77% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Todd Young (R) IA 1 X D 5 Bruce Braley (D) 64.61% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D Bruce Braley (D) IA 2 X D 7 Dave Loebsack (D) 57.24% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Dave Loebsack (D) IA 3 X D 1 Leonard Boswell (D) 56.40% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Leonard Boswell (D) KS 3 X R 3 Dennis Moore (D) (retiring) 56.44% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Kevin Yoder (R) KY 3 X D 2 John Yarmuth (D) 59.37% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D John Yarmuth (D) KY 6 X R 9 Ben Chandler (D) 64.66% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Ben Chandler (D) LA 2 X D 25 Joseph Cao (R) 49.54% R Likely D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Lean D Flip Likely D Flip Cedric Richmond (D) LA 3 X R 12 Charlie Melançon (D) (retiring)"Senate" 100.0% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Likely R Flip Jeff Landry (R) ME 1 X D 8 Chellie Pingree (D) 54.90% D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Chellie Pingree (D) ME 2 X D 3 Mike Michaud (D) 67.44% D Lean D Likely D Safe D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Mike Michaud (D) MD 1 X R 13 Frank Kratovil (D) 49.12% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Andrew P. Harris (R) MA 4 X D 14 Barney Frank (D) 67.95% D Lean D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D Barney Frank (D) MA 5 X D 8 Niki Tsongas (D) 98.71% D Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Niki Tsongas (D) MA 6 X D 7 John F. Tierney (D) 70.40% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D John F. Tierney (D) MA 10 X D 5 Bill Delahunt (D) (retiring) 98.64% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup William R. Keating (D) MI 1 X R 3 Bart Stupak (D) (retiring) 65.04% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Dan Benishek (R) MI 7 X R 2 Mark Schauer (D) 48.78% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tim Walberg (R) MI 9 X D 2 Gary Peters (D) 52.08% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Gary Peters (D) MI 15 X D 13 John D. Dingell Jr. (D) 70.70% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D John D. Dingell Jr. (D) MN 1 X R 1 Tim Walz (D) 62.50% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Tim Walz (D) MN 6 X R 7 Michele Bachmann (R) 46.41% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Michele Bachmann (R) MN 7 X R 5 Collin Peterson (D) 72.20% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Collin Peterson (D) MN 8 X D 3 Jim Oberstar (D) 67.69% D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Safe D Lean D Chip Cravaack (R) MS 1 X R 14 Travis Childers (D) 54.46% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Alan Nunnelee (R) MS 2 X D 12 Bennie Thompson (D) 69.05% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Bennie Thompson (D) MS 4 X R 20 Gene Taylor (D) 74.54% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Steven Palazzo (R) MO 3 X D 7 Russ Carnahan (D) 66.36% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Safe D Russ Carnahan (D) MO 4 X R 14 Ike Skelton (D) 65.91% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Vicky Hartzler (R) MO 5 X D 10 Emanuel Cleaver (D) 64.37% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Emanuel Cleaver (D) NE 2 X R 6 Lee Terry (R) 51.93% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Lee Terry (R) NV 3 X D 2 Dina Titus (D) 47.43% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Likely R Flip Joe Heck (R) NH 1 X Even Carol Shea-Porter (D) 51.73% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Frank Guinta (R) NH 2 X D 3 Paul Hodes (D) (retiring)"Senate" 56.44% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Charles Bass (R) NJ 3 X R 1 John Adler (D) 52.08% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean D Tossup Lean R Flip Jon Runyan (R) NJ 6 X D 8 Frank Pallone (D) 66.95% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Frank Pallone (D) NJ 12 X D 5 Rush Holt Jr. (D) 63.12% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Rush Holt Jr. (D) NM 1 X D 5 Martin Heinrich (D) 55.65% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Martin Heinrich (D) NM 2 X R 6 Harry Teague (D) 55.80% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Steve Pearce (R) NM 3 X D 7 Ben Ray Lujan (D) 56.56% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Ben Ray Lujan (D) NY 1 X Even Tim Bishop (D) 58.38% D Tossup Tilt D Likely D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tim Bishop (D) NY 2 X D 4 Steve Israel (D) 66.94% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Steve Israel (D) NY 4 X D 6 Carolyn McCarthy (D) 64.01% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D Carolyn McCarthy (D) NY 13 X R 4 Michael McMahon (D) 60.95% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Michael Grimm (R) NY 19 X R 3 John Hall (D) 58.67% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Nan Hayworth (R) NY 20 X R 2 Scott Murphy (D) 50.23% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Likely R Flip Chris Gibson (R) NY 22 X D 6 Maurice Hinchey (D) 64.44% D Lean D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Maurice Hinchey (D) NY 23 X R 1 Bill Owens (D) 48.34% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Bill Owens (D) NY 24 X R 2 Mike Arcuri (D) 51.91% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Richard Hanna (R) NY 25 X D 3 Dan Maffei (D) 54.82% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Ann Marie Buerkle (R) NY 27 X D 4 Brian Higgins (D) 74.42% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Brian Higgins (D) NY 29 X R 5 Vacant 50.97% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Tom Reed (R) NC 2 X R 2 Bob Etheridge (D) 66.93% D Lean D Tilt D Likely D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Renee Ellmers (R) NC 4 X D 8 David Price (D) 63.32% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D David Price (D) NC 7 X R 5 Mike McIntyre (D) 68.84% D Tossup Tilt D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Mike McIntyre (D) NC 8 X R 2 Larry Kissell (D) 55.38% D Tossup Lean D Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Larry Kissell (D) NC 11 X R 6 Heath Shuler (D) 61.96% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Heath Shuler (D) NC 13 X D 5 Brad Miller (D) 65.93% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Brad Miller (D) ND AL X R 10 Earl Pomeroy (D) 61.97% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Likely R Flip Rick Berg (R) OH 1 X D 1 Steve Driehaus (D) 52.47% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Steve Chabot (R) OH 6 X R 2 Charlie Wilson (D) 63.88% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Bill Johnson (R) OH 10 X D 8 Dennis Kucinich (D) 57.02% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Dennis Kucinich (D) OH 12 X D 1 Pat Tiberi (R) 54.78% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Pat Tiberi (R) OH 13 X D 5 Betty Sutton (D) 64.55% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Safe D Betty Sutton (D) OH 15 X D 1 Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 45.76% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Steve Stivers (R) OH 16 X R 4 John Boccieri (D) 55.36% D Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Jim Renacci (R) OH 18 X R 7 Zack Space (D) 58.97% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean D Bob Gibbs (R) OK 2 X R 14 Dan Boren (D) 70.47% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Dan Boren (D) OR 1 X D 8 David Wu (D) 71.50% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Safe D Safe D David Wu (D) OR 4 X D 2 Peter DeFazio (D) 82.34% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Peter DeFazio (D) OR 5 X D 1 Kurt Schrader (D) 54.25% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Kurt Schrader (D) PA 3 X R 3 Kathy Dahlkemper (D) 51.24% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Mike Kelly (R) PA 4 X R 6 Jason Altmire (D) 55.86% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Jason Altmire (D) PA 6 X D 4 Jim Gerlach (R) 52.10% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Lean R Safe R Lean R Safe R Jim Gerlach (R) PA 7 X D 3 Joe Sestak (D) (retiring)"Senate" 59.59% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Pat Meehan (R) PA 8 X D 2 Patrick Murphy (D) 56.77% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Mike Fitzpatrick (R) PA 10 X R 8 Chris Carney (D) 56.33% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Likely R Flip Tom Marino (R) PA 11 X D 4 Paul Kanjorski (D) 51.63% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lou Barletta (R) PA 12 X R 1 Mark Critz (D) 52.60% D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Mark Critz (D) PA 13 X D 7 Allyson Schwartz (D) 62.79% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Allyson Schwartz (D) PA 15 X D 2 Charlie Dent (R) 58.57% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Safe R Charlie Dent (R) PA 17 X R 6 Tim Holden (D) 63.68% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Tim Holden (D) RI 1 X D 13 Patrick J. Kennedy (D) (retiring) 68.52% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Safe D Likely D David Cicilline (D) SC 5 X R 7 John Spratt (D) 61.64% D Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Likely R Flip Mick Mulvaney (R) SD AL X R 9 Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) 67.56% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Kristi Noem (R) TN 4 X R 13 Lincoln Davis (D) 58.76% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Scott DesJarlais (R) TN 5 X D 3 Jim Cooper (D) 65.84% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Jim Cooper (D) TN 6 X R 13 Bart Gordon (D) (retiring) 74.42% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Diane Black (R) TN 8 X R 6 John Tanner (D) (retiring) 99.97% D Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Safe R Flip Safe R Flip Stephen Fincher (R) TX 15 X D 3 Rubén Hinojosa (D) 65.71% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Rubén Hinojosa (D) TX 17 X R 20 Chet Edwards (D) 52.98% D Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Likely R Flip Lean R Flip Safe R Flip Bill Flores (R) TX 23 X R 4 Ciro Rodriguez (D) 55.76% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Quico Canseco (R) TX 25 X D 6 Lloyd Doggett (D) 65.83% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lloyd Doggett (D) TX 27 X R 2 Solomon P. Ortiz (D) 57.95% D Lean D Likely D Safe D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Blake Farenthold (R) UT 2 X R 15 Jim Matheson (D) 63.35% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Jim Matheson (D) VA 2 X R 5 Glenn Nye (D) 52.40% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Scott Rigell (R) VA 5 X R 5 Tom Perriello (D) 50.09% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Robert Hurt (R) VA 9 X R 11 Rick Boucher (D) 97.07% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Morgan Griffith (R) VA 11 X D 2 Gerry Connolly (D) 54.69% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Gerry Connolly (D) WA 2 X D 3 Rick Larsen (D) 62.39% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Rick Larsen (D) WA 3 X Even Brian Baird (D) (retiring) 64.01% D Lean R Flip Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) WA 6 X D 5 Norm Dicks (D) 66.86% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Norm Dicks (D) WA 8 X D 3 Dave Reichert (R) 52.78% R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Dave Reichert (R) WA 9 X D 5 Adam Smith (D) 65.45% D Likely D Safe D Safe D Tossup Safe D Safe D Likely D Adam Smith (D) WV 1 X R 9 Alan Mollohan (D) (lost renomination) 99.93% D Tossup Tossup Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup David McKinley (R) WV 3 X R 6 Nick Rahall (D) 66.92% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Nick Rahall (D) WI 3 X D 4 Ron Kind (D) 63.19% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D Likely D Ron Kind (D) WI 7 X D 3 Dave Obey (D) (retiring) 60.79% D Tossup Tilt R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Tossup Tossup Likely R Flip Sean Duffy (R) WI 8 X R 2 Steve Kagen (D) 54.00% D Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Lean R Flip Likely R Flip Reid Ribble (R) Overall | | R - 204D - 181 50 tossups | | R - 223D - 194 18 tossups | | R - 237D - 198 | | R - 225D - 168 43 tossups | | R - 199D - 195 41 tossups | | D - 190R - 174 42 tossups | | R - 216D - 200 19 tossups | | R - 242D - 193 Notes References * House